Battery Expert Predicts The Obvious For The Future: Lower Cost, More Range
Subhash Dhar, CEO of XALT Energy (and founding president of Ovonic Battert) encourages that electric vehicle batteries will become cheaper and more powerful over the next five years.
In other news, Christmas will arrive this year on December 25th.
Dhar said at the Center for Automotive Research Management Briefing Seminars, that he expected lithium-ion costs at $125/kWh by 2022 on the module level.
Those lower costs are to come from: improvements in materials, processes and automation, as well as new cell designs and higher volumes.
At the same time (again by 2022), Dhar expect that the energy density will increase to 400 Wh/kg and 900-1,000 Wh/L.
The article provides tricky NEDC-ish numbers for the electric vehicles’ energy consumption at 125 Wh/mile (78 Wh/km), which means that 50 kWh would be good for 400 miles (640 km). We doubt we would apply such an assumption, and it lowers confidence in other predictions.
“Looking five years out to 2022, Dhar expects energy density of lithium batteries to reach 400 Wh/kg, which means a driving range of 400 miles (640 km) employing a 50-kWh battery pack.
“In practical terms,” he explains in an interview following his Traverse City presentation, “a typical electric car would consume about 125 Wh/mile (78 Wh/km) at a constant speed of 55 mph (88 km/h). A 50-kWh battery with 400 Wh/kg of specific energy can easily take the car 400 miles (640 km) within the allocated weight limits for the battery.
“With all other cabin comfort load (including air conditioning and heating), the range will drop by 15%. This can be compensated for without sacrificing the 400-mile (640 km) range by increasing battery capacity to 57 kWh.””
Beyond the next five years, Subhash Dhar sees solid-state technology as the next-generation solution, which will appear first in consumer electronics (by 2025) and then later in EVs (by 2028) 10 years from now.
Among other predictions we noted:
- the main problem for EVs in the future will not be the batteries, but insufficient charging infrastructure
- after 2025, all new cars will be electrified (at least micro-hybrid) in the Western world and China
- lithium-metal to replace graphite as the anode material by 2022 (then lithium-titanate will be preferred by 2030)
- lithium-air technology to offer more than 1,000 Wh/L and 500 Wh/Kg in 2030
- lithium-ion battery production to increased four times by 2025 (half will be used in electric vehicles)