Base $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Production To Start In 8 Months

SEP 13 2018 BY VANJA KLJAIC 166

It seems that Tesla Model 3 production hell is finally coming to an end.

Last July, Elon Musk predicted that Tesla Model 3 production hell is coming to an end. And judging by the latest news, that might be true. Last Friday, Musk shared a letter to the employees, detailing the company standings in the final month of Q3 2018.

Many – even Elon Musk himself – dubbed the Model 3 as the make or break vehicle for the company. Truth be told, they were right. The success for Tesla depends on the future prospect of their entry-level electric sedan more than anything else. Entering the highly coveted top five best-selling cars charts in the United States last August will certainly help with that. However, Tesla only produces the three more expensive variants of the vehicle right now. And that’s seemingly a problem.

Tesla Model 3

For most owners that shelled out the reservation fee over two years ago, the base Model 3 was the vehicle that got them interested. However, the base $35,000 (before any options) car is still not being produced. However, that’s about to change. And that could mean big things for not just the automotive industry, but also, for the environment itself. Last June, Elon Musk, the Tesla CEO, provided a rough estimate of the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3 production start.

“We will definitely offer a $35,000 version of the Model 3. And probably at the end of this year is when we will be able to make a smaller version of the battery pack, and get into volume production of $35,000 version in Q1 next year. We would definitely honor that obligation, and we would do so right now if it were possible,” Musk said.

However, the recent timeline revision revealed by Martin Viecha, a Senior Director for Investor Relations at Tesla, pushes the production start deadline to either April or May next year. And according to sources, Tesla is gearing up for the$35,000 base Model 3’s rollout, as well as succeeding models like the standard-range AWD version.

The entry-level Model 3 – priced at just $35,000 – could mess things up for some rather popular and high-selling cars in the United States and then, the world. For example, the likes of a Toyota Camry, whose top of the line XSE V6 model trim comes at $34,950 could be under attack. The BMW 3 Series, for example, starts at a similar $34,900. The Mercedes-Benz C-Class is just a tad more expensive – starting at $40,250. The new Audi A4 is priced at $36,000. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

With the performance and tech that the Model 3 comes with, the entry-level version becomes one of the most interesting options for any buyer looking to purchase a new vehicle. If Musk’s company can start the production within the mentioned timeframe and deliver these in volume, the rest of the automotive industry will need to hurry up. Or they will simply get left behind. It really is a game of innovate or go to the history books for most of the legacy carmakers in the next few years.

Source: Teslarati

Categories: Tesla

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166 Comments on "Base $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Production To Start In 8 Months"

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MABUS

Welcome model 3 standard, is the real térmic killer

pjwood1

Timed right aroud the $3750 phase out,

amta

That’s OK , I’ll Take It !

Mark.ca

If that’s the case then take the $49k one….better value.

zzzzzzzzzz

Yes $49k-7.5k would be better value.
But not everybody has enough taxable income to qualify for full $7500 credit* and qualify for autoloan. And Tesla can’t do leases either.

*In such case it would be more reasonable to buy a cheap mass market (maybe used) car in the first place, but if people want to waste all their money on a car or have other reasons, it is their choice.

Nix

Tesla CAN do leases. They simply haven’t chosen to pull that lever yet. All the current sales are based on NO leases, and NO test drives of the LR RWD, and only from people who are willing to put down a deposit without a firm delivery date.

Yes, if you don’t have enough income to qualify for most or all of the $7500 tax incentive, you likely should not be purchasing a $50K brand new car, whether it is an EV or an ICE.

Will

NiX that’s why the want a $35k car. They always can afford that then a $50k car

Scott

The S and the X can be leased. 3 will have a lease once the massive waiting line is trimmed down.

John

People waste money in all sorts of ways. It’s not exclusive to EV’s. $70k turbo diesel pickups that never see dirt are all over the roads in America.

Mark.ca

“But not everybody has enough taxable income to qualify for full $7500 credit* and qualify for autoloan”
So what are they doing buying new cars then? We are not talking about that class here. These are not corollas.

ziv

I agree. Anyone that can afford a $35k new car is probably making at least $55k a year, which is about where you start paying in excess of $7500 in taxes in most cases, kids, mortgage deduction or not.
If you can afford a new car that is costing you this much, you are paying a good amount of taxes and the credit will be a huge help in offsetting the cost of the car.

zzzzzzzzzz

5 top non-tesla trade-ins are:
Toyota Prius
BMW 3-Series
Honda Accord
Honda Civic
Nissan Leaf

Do you see pattern here? Obviously some people are stretching their finances even if they should not.
Others may have plenty of savings to spend but not enough taxable income, e.g. retired people.

Mark.ca

I take you are not from US zzzzzz….because if you were you would know how easy it is for a family of 2+ to reach that $7500. In high income states it’s evan easier.

Frank

I drive a Prius. I’m streching for that M3. Should have it by mid Dec, so I should get the $7500.

Dimitrij

how about retired folks?

Nix

Or $44K version without PUP and full $7,500 fed incentive. We still don’t know when the non-PUP version is coming, but that seems to be the best value vs. a non-PUP $35K version and half incentive.

That would mean for a difference of $5,250 (+taxes) you get the longer range, faster acceleration, faster charging, better resale value, longer warranty, and longer potential battery life (fewer charge cycles) of the bigger battery. Probably the best spent $5K you could put into any Tesla Model 3 option.

Speculawyer

I don’t believe they sell any Model 3s without the premium package yet. (Please correct me if I am wrong.)

Scott

You are correct. The cheapest Model 3 you can buy right now is 49k. Black color, rear wheel drive, long range battery and the premium interior.

Nix

Correct, we are still waiting on that release date for the non-PUP version.

pjwood1

The non-PUP’s challenge will make the 5 seat Model X seem like a piece of cake. Maybe not, but I don’t see Tesla sweating details, like retro-fitting a manually adjustable steering wheel (their first), etc.

Dan F.

I suspect that the PUP is too profitable to have it not be a mandatory “option” for quite a while yet..

Mint

A standard range with PUP will probably be released before a long range without. A 3 without PUP saves Tesla very little, changes manufacturing significantly, makes the car far more basic (it’ll get criticized and compared to cheaper cars), and yet loses almost $5k of pure profit.

The standard range at least saves Tesla some batteries (25-30kWh) and possibly some warranty costs.

I also suspect most buyers will see far more value in SR PUP than LR w/o PUP, because 220 miles is more than enough for most.

ziv

How much range, approximately, will the Standard Range 3 have? I think I read 220 miles, which is pretty respectable. If the TM3 was a hatch or had a bit more utility, the Bolt sales would tank even further because utility is about all the Bolt has going for it and as it is now, the 3 does not have that much utility for hauling kids, stuff or dogs. It is roomy but a sedan is a sedan and that trunk is not exactly doing it any favors.
I remember the old Malibu Maxx. The Malibu was a thoroughly meh sort of car, but the Maxx had a hatch that made it a lot more useful to a large subsection of the car buying public.

Lawrence

I have 2 kids and have no problems hauling strollers, soccer gear and things that go along with having kids. I don’t feel like I’m constrained in space and utility as opposed to the eGolf that I had or even the Audi wagon I had as well. I suppose if I were hauling a tuba or the like it would make a difference but the idea that a sedan doesn’t work with having kids is nonsense that is being spewed to us. Just like the marketing that says you need a big SUV just because you are taking delivery of your first born. Marketing in America is not helping you figure out what you need 99.9% of the time, they market. They always market using the what-if scenario.

Ziv

I am single and after I traded in my CUV for a Volt, I really regretted the Volt’s relative lack of space for hauling stuff. And the Volt has way more utility than a TM3, due to the hatch. YMMV.

Lawrence

The Model 3 has 15 cu.ft of trunk space vs the Volt’s 10 cu.ft. Being a hatch doesn’t make up for losing 1/3 of the space.

Agzand

Hatchbacks are better for bulky items, also there are two ways to measure cargo capacity of a hatch, 10 ft2 appears to be the smaller method (to window line). If you load to ceiling it will be more than that.

philip d

I have both a M3 and a Volt. The Volt is great when no one is in the car and you can fold all the seats down. It can hold a lot of stuff. I’ve even loaded some 10′ light guage steel studs by placing one end up on the dash into the corner of the windshield. The problem is when the back seats have to be up and then you have not a lot of space for luggage.

The Model 3 is much better suited for packing luggage and stuff for a trip with passengers than the Volt. We took a trip with 4 people and their luggage and did just fine. The M3 has a nice sized deep well under the trunk floor that can hold a small suitcase. Then you have the frunk. If you have all your luggage packed in smaller suitcases and carry ons then you can tetris everything in quite well.

But I choose the Volt when I want to haul stuff from Home Depot or whatever. I even loaded a good sized wheel barrow into the Volt once. Just turned it upside down and it fit right in up to the front seats.

philip d

The non PUP LR version will likely come out when the $35k base version comes out. The base version interior will be implemented into the line once it has been created and figured out for the base version Model 3.

Speculawyer

térmic?

Chris Hansen

Internal combustion. Térmico is in Spanish.

Pushmi-Pullyu

That’s a new one for me, too.

Dan F.

What is termic????

Seven Electrics

It looks like Tesla is offering free supercharging for a year for reservation holders who agree to take an RWD model in September, so we may be seeing a slackening in demand for the base models. I’m going to wager that the premium models have both more of a backlog and less supply, possibly due to SiC shortages, but even the premium backlog will not last forever. Producing the $35K version is going to require a serious capital raise in 2019.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Now that the Tesla bashers’ recent mantra “Tesla will fail at Model 3 production, and collapse” has been disproven — just like every one of their mantras always is — they’ve moved the goal posts to “demand for the Model 3 is slackening”.

Yeah, we can see how much it’s “slackening” with the rapid growth of production and deliveries every month. 🙄

Go Tesla! Keep Going Tesla!

Viking79

Exactly, and my hunch is this delay is due to demand in more expensive model.

Mark.ca

I said it before…it’s simple math really. For CA you can buy the $49k version LR + PUP now and your net is $39K or wait and get the SR + PUP for $37.5k.
$1500 for 90 miles of extra range is a very good deal.

Clive

That all depends on your tax liability.

Mark.ca

Yes, you need to work a real job.

ziv

I believe that it depends on a lot of factors, but if you have $55k worth of income, your chances of incurring $7500 worth of federal taxes is pretty high. Deductions or not, it is hard to avoid paying the feds that much at any income level over $50k.

M Hovis

“even the premium backlog will not last forever.” I don’t think the demand ever goes to zero for the premium models. The Model S and Model X demand has sustained. True that the volume we are seeing probably won’t last forever but really hard to tell. It looks like they will carry the premium models full onslaught through the end of this year and that does not include the market for Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world market. Also, don’t count on too many base $35,000 Model 3s to be sold for a long time. They will certainly go through the same drill they did with the LR until all orders are filled. If they maintain quarterly 60,000 Model 3s with an average sells price of $50,000+ at a 20% margin the profitability will be there. And even if that demand falls off, the Model Y will be here in a couple of years so the whole process repeats. Bottom line, if they can show profitability in a few quarters and maintain the cash needed for Q1 debt call, they will be well on their way. Time will tell, but this bull says don’t bet against them.

Will

So you saying they will cancel the SR like the did to Model S 40

Big Solar

no way, big difference in the MS40KWh and M3 210 mile car

Pushmi-Pullyu

Why do we keep seeing this false analogy? It’s nothing but FÜD.

Cancelling the SR TM3 wouldn’t be like cancelling the S40, which — if you recall — was the smallest of three battery pack sizes. Cancelling the SR version would be like cancelling the Model S60 back when there was only the S60 and the S85.

The S40 was cancelled because only about 2% of the pre-orders were for that configuration, and so it wasn’t profitable to put that version into production.

Unless you actually believe that almost nobody wants a SR TM3, then the analogy is a false one.

agzand

Based on global sales of Model S/X, the sustainable sale level for Model 3 should be about 250k per year. This is assuming a cheaper version starting around $40k becomes available.

Viking79

No, can easily support 500,000. Look at BMW 3 series for comparison.

Doggydogworld

BMW 3 series starts at 34k in the US but more like 24k in Europe where they do most of their volume.

Nix

What exchange rate are you using?

BMW.de puts the starting price of the cheapest 3er (318i Limousine) at 33.400 Euro. That is nearly $40K USD.

I’m in Europe and the 3-series starts from $35k for me. And everyone that has ever bought an BMW knows that the base price is basically for an empty shell, no one buys it without adding a number of options that comes standard in most other models.
So if anything the Model 3 should be able to sustain way more sales than the 3-series.

Brian

3 Series is made in the US and cost less than in Europe.

Andy

Agreed. 500k a year seems to be a fairly consistent number for a premium mid sized sedan.

Nix

250K would be just the initial China demand alone, and going up from there.

““We’re confident we can do the Gigafactory in China for a lot less. I think it’s probably closer—this is just a guess—to $2 billion. That would sort of be the 250,000-vehicle per year rate. ”

“it would take another two to three years to ramp up the production to 500,000 vehicles per year. A number that would fully satisfy the local Chinese market demand.”

https://insideevs.com/report-says-tesla-gigafactory-in-china-will-cost-5-billion/

Agzand

If that was the case, they should have been able to sell more Model S/X in China. With a Chinese factory maybe, but not with the current structure.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Tesla is aiming at a sustained 400,000 per year, so hopefully you’re underestimating demand.

agzand

That means they sell 4 times as many Model 3s as Models S/X combined. It is possible, but it will be an anomaly in comparison to other premium brands. For example, Audi A4/A5 sell about 2.5 times A6/A7/A8. For Merc, combined E and S class sales are close to C class by itself. For BMW, 3-4 series sell twice as much as 5-6-7 series combined.

Robb Stark

Tesla has to push people to get the RWD instead of the AWD, with things like raising the price for dual motor AWD to $6K. That is not indicative of slackening demand.

Plus Tesla has an entire world outside of North America to satiate. Functionally, demand for premium Model 3s are infinite. So serious capital raise is NOT required for 2019. None. If available on good terms Tesla may very well issue debt securities but not equity securities because Tesla always has good options to deploy capital. Like a European Gigafactory or a 2nd American GF.

Scott

I would say the fact that they are raising the price of the AWD is proof the demand is not slacking.

Get Real

Once again a serial Tesla basher is frantically tring to explain away the phenomenal success and demand for the Model 3.

Keep on trying to move those goal posts as you pretend to drive your pretend Tesla!

John

Don’t you mean, “hoping” to see slackening demand? Torture numbers long enough, you can get them to say whatever you want. That’s why Tesla’s bar of failure keeps getting moved by folks like yourself.

In the meantime, Tesla keeps making vehicles..

God/Bacardi

Two big problems are the $5K PUP and them not leasing them…

PhillyA

“Martin Viecha, a Senior Director for Investor Relations at Tesla, pushes the production start deadline to either April or May next year.”

Uhhhh, aren’t there rules that say they can’t selectively disclose information like this? Why is this person saying this to individual people instead of posting it on a blog or press release or something?

This is big news… could mean a lot of people missing out on the $3300 federal tax credit if it doesn’t start until May.

🙁

Doggydogworld

He didn’t disclose anything. Tesla’s web site says 4-7 months. Last month, when Worm Capital toured the GF, it said 5-8 months. So they’re just repeating the party line.

Oh, he also did NOT say $35k. That number has been banished from Tesla’s vocabulary (they don’t mind if you keep repeating it, of course). The correct term for Tesla personnel is now Standard Range or Affordable version.

Will $35k fall victim to “low demand”, like the S40?

Viking79

Unlikely, they really need that model to meet their goals for Model 3.

Nix

You are correct, there has been no official change on dates.

“Will $35k fall victim to “low demand”, like the S40?”

S40 reservations were in the hundreds.

Model 3 SR reservations are likely in the hundreds of thousands based on extrapolating just 30% of the initial 450 thousand reservations (see my other post for documented source – ibd)

Are you still seriously confused between “hundreds” and “hundreds of thousands” and think any company would treat them the same?

More likely is that like the S60, after filling initial SR demand, and after having it on the market for a while, Tesla will upgrade the SR battery as battery prices come down. And they will upgrade the LR battery too. By that time, inflation will mean $35K in 2016 dollars won’t be worth $35K anymore. The clear precedent is the S60 and S85, and what we know about decades of inflation of prices, not the S40.

Will

Elon in June said $35 k. Went to store last Thursday and the salesman said $35k SR model 3

Lawrence

A guy getting paid $15-$20 an hour at a store is not someone that I would count in giving accurate and reliable information. They’re nice people but I’m general I doubt that they’re really good beyond general information.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…the recent timeline revision revealed by Martin Viecha, a Senior Director for Investor Relations at Tesla, pushes the production start deadline to either April or May next year.”

Well, it’s disappointing to see base Model 3 production pushed back to Q2 of 2019. I was hoping to see the base Model 3 enter production in Q1 next year. 🙁

Doggydogworld

It’s not pushed back yet. 4-7 months. Depends on production bottlenecks and sustained LR demand.

F150 Brian

Interesting how people view this. Rather inconsistent 😉

Mark.ca

Yeah, very weird. I thought we were all the same…

Benz

Actually, how enormous is the demand for the Tesla Model 3?

And what would be required to take marketshare away from the Tesla Model 3?

An EV model that is even better than the Tesla Model 3.

How long will it take for the competition to design such an EV model?

The first 2 main questions:
“Are they willing to give all they have got?”
“Are they willing to put all their weight behind it?”

Speculawyer

As far as I can see, there is absolutely no serious EV competition for the Model 3 on the horizon at least for 2+ years. There are some good EVs coming…the I-Pace, the Taycan, etc…but they will pretty much all be much more expensive.

William

I would guess that Tesla Model 3 has first mover advantage “at least for 2+ years”. Maybe EVen longer, depending on how other ICE OEMs like VW and Hyundai, keep up their respective production numbers with 2019 through 2020 Bolt/Leaf, here in N.A.

Will

VW can if they want built a economical but great EV. It’s all in them. GM still haven’t progress since Spark EV tech and Ford don’t make EVs any more

Andy

They’re not really competitors as they’re different segments. The first proper competitor will probably be the BEV 3 Series expected in 2020.

That said, depending on what you consider market share and which markets you’re talking about, it’s unlikely to take away from the Model 3 as the EV market will expand.

Will it take away market share from the premium mid size BEV Sedan market in the US? Yes, because there’s currently only one vehicle in that segment and BMW selling only one BEV 3 series would do that. :p

Will it take away market share from the premium mid size Sedan market in general? Probably not, but it reduce Model 3 market share growth. It probably would likely reduce Teslas market share in the US however, although we still don’t know what the sustained market share of the Tesla is due to the ramp up and pre orders.

TJKR

There hasn’t been an official announcement or press release saying this will be 8 months and this specifically refers to $35K version so I take this report with grain of salt. My reservation still says Standard Battery will be 4-7 months. I think with the Gigafactory upgrades and $100 Kwh battery cell goal is critical and a $40K version will be available by end of this CY. $35K version may very well be 8 months.

Doggydogworld

You are correct, there has been no change. It’s just a game of telephone.

Pushmi-Pullyu

Thanks for the clarification! 🙂

agzand

With this timeline the base Model 3 will be effectively the same price as the current long range model, due to federal tax credit expiration.

Todd

Where did you find a 14k tax credit?

Agzand

$5k is the premium package (maybe forced again initially). The battery premium is $9k, close enough to $7.5k.

William L

Just curious, assume regular vs long range are both available and have same delivery time today. What percentage of people will buy standard vs long range.

My guess will be 65/35.

Nix

“For most owners that shelled out the reservation fee over two years ago, the base Model 3 was the vehicle that got them interested.”

Actually, we didn’t even know what the battery sizes would be when Tesla first opened up reservations. Most people putting down a reservation expected multiple battery choices. I’m not sure where the meme started that everybody wanted a stripped base model, base battery, but that doesn’t jive with the actual historical record.

A survey of over 6,000 reservation holders who answered with what they wanted through 2016 and into Jan 2017 showed that most actually wanted either a medium or long range battery, with only 30% wanting the base battery, and 57% wanting the longest range battery:

https://forums.teslarati.com/attachments/model3tracker-info-battery-config-pop-2017-01-31-2100-pst-png.79/

By Jan. 2018 (1 year later and only SR and LR, with no medium size battery), the split was still 3:2 with over 60% wanting the LR, and less than 40% wanting the SR.

https://forums.teslarati.com/attachments/srb-vs-lrb-png.418/

https://forums.teslarati.com/threads/model3tracker-info.892/

Digging deeper into the numbers, less than 10% wanted the stripped SR back then. Unless somebody has a survey with a larger sample size from the same timeframe, maybe we should put that historically incorrect meme to bed?

CEJT

It doesn’t matter. There is a quite large group of 1st and 2nd day M3 depositors (like me) who are very disgruntled about Tesla’s deception related to the base model promised at $35k and the full $7500 tax incentive. I cancelled my order and received my deposit back (without interest, of course) that Tesla used to enable manufacturing of their premium models for rich buyers who were also allotted the full tax incentive. Tesla lost a significant number of enthusiastic customers and many will never come back to take a second look.

Speculawyer

*eyeroll* Look, we all want something great sold to us for dirt cheap. But look at Tesla’s books…they are still losing money. You are mad that they didn’t quickly sell you a awesome car that would have lost them money. So I understand you being upset…you didn’t get your car…but you did get your money back. Always remember, “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”

I’d like to say go buy a nice sleek long-range 100+KW-fast-charging EV from someone else…but there are none. And there wont’ be any from anyone else for several years.

BTW, Tesla actually was very careful not to mention the $7500 deposit with respect to the $35K base model.

Another Euro point of view

“If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”

Now it is written 🙂 I remember very well that back in summer 2017 I was writing here in the comments that I thought as unlikely that the $35k version would be available yet in 2018. I got bitten in the back side quite a few time by the usual guardians of the holy Tesla narrative for this mild skepticism.

Pushmi-Pullyu

The little boy who has cried “Wolf!” hundreds of times, is bitterly disappointed when no one believed him the one time it was true.

You’ve made your bed; now lie in it. You seem to have a lot of practice with that.

Will

No but they advertise the price made people put money down believing they might get a great car that’s Electric for $35k

Viking79

Elon clearly stated the car was $35k, and was careful to not mention of tax credit and clearly said more expensive models would ship first. Many referral bloggers pushed the $7500 off the $35,000, when it was never on the table. Who knows, maybe the tax credit changes too.

Nix

You are not representative statistically of reservation holders. I’m sorry it didn’t work out for you. There are other choices for EV’s with a similar range as the Model 3 SR. The Bolt and 2019 Leaf are also excellent choices that should be in the same price and same window of availability.

Hopefully you can purchase one of those cars and take the full incentive either through a purchase or through having the full amount of the incentive reflected in a lease. That way you can Join the “rich buyers” instead of complaining about them.

Nate

Teslarati forum polls may or may not reflect actual reservation holders. Respondes are not vetted.They could just be kids dreaming.

Will

NiX that was a elitist comment. Would Tesla would have gotten those 400k reservations if they said hey we are making a $50k sedan. I don’t think so

Pushmi-Pullyu

It’s bizarre how people seem to think Tesla had this all planned out in advance. They’re confusing Elon Musk with Doctor Evil!

If things went according to Tesla’s plan, then production would have ramped up to about the current level by the end of last year, and the base $35k Model 3 would already be in production.

It’s nothing but FÜD to claim that Tesla intentionally deceived anyone. Tesla had a major failure with automating production of the TM3 battery pack, and that has caused a major delay in ramping up TM3 production, as well as making the car cost more to make. Tesla will put the base model into production when they can actually make a profit at it — and not before, no matter how many would-be Tesla owners that is going to disappoint.

comment image

Nate

I would agree with that. This is not some evil plot.

Also I think reservation holders have to consider a lot of potential hurdles had to be cleared cleanly for everything to pan out in their (the reservation holders) favor, and the odds of Tesla pulling everything off as planned were not fantastic. I had to remind myself of this at times. There were points I was pretty annoyed with Teslas progress. I remember though when I put down 1000 i knew it might not be the smartest use if that money, and there was a decent chance it might not pan out. A big part of the reason I was ok with that is..
1) I am helping a company I want to see pull this off.
2) It lets Tesla know there is demand for the 35k model. That was the only specific price at the time I reserved. Also, not cancelling my rervation lets them know there is still demand for that car $35k car.

captylor

Really going to live it up with the Compound Interest from $1000 at best rates of 1.85% over the past two years of 38 buck or worst from a bank at 0.03% $1.
or 1 year CD yield .27%.

Nate

Lol.

Yeah in retrospect I wish I would have put that 1000 in bitcoin at that point in history, but oh well.

I knew there was a risk and was probably overly optimistic. Yeah not happy how it panned out but the bottom line is not in the position to sell me a $35k car. Oh well it is great to see the demand of the higher priced models be so strong. In time this will bring good things to the auto industry.

Will

Agree with you CEJT

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…disgruntled about Tesla’s deception related to the base model promised at $35k and the full $7500 tax incentive.”

Except Tesla never, ever promised any tax credit, $7500 or otherwise. They never subtracted that from the price in any of their press releases or public statements.

You have confused what journalists reported with the actual facts.

FÜDsters are getting a lot of mileage out of pretending that Tesla broke its promise; they’ve managed to convince a lot of people that’s actually true!

Nate

Nix,
I could care less about whatever side you are arguing about one way or the other. You just need to understand those polls from Teslarati are weak evidence. I reserved myself but do not recall spending time on Teslarati. It is a huge assumption to figure responders are represenrative of the full reservation holders group. They could be kids that cannot afford any model but like to dream they can. No way to vet responders claims. I would not wager any money saying that we can trust some poll on a forum named “Teslarati”.

Pushmi-Pullyu

If you can present a more scientific poll, or one with a larger sample size, then I’m sure we’d all be happy to use that. In the meantime, it seems rather foolish to suggest we should ignore the evidence we have, even if it’s imperfect.

As I recall, early buyers of the Model S preferred the larger (85 kWh) pack size over the smaller one (60 kWh) at a rate of about 7-to-1. So it would hardly be a surprise if the preference for the larger pack size on the Model 3 was in the >60/<40 range. If there is any surprise there, it's that the preference for the larger pack size isn't even greater.

Nate

I do not have time to find you a bettet poll, as I said I could care less about whatever side he is arguing about. The method to produce that data provided is flawed for the purpose Nix tried to use it for, and your logic that you should use that data for that purpose until someone provides you something better to use is equally flawed.

dam

and I have a bridge to sell

Get Real

Yeah, you and the other anti-Tesla have a bridge alright.

A bridge to NOWHERE!

Jeff

If the Tesla Model 3 base version starts production in 8 months, I imagine it will be a very small percentage of its production, because they still need the higher margin cars to balance profitability. So the wait will be something like 1-2 yrs for reservation holders to get their car.

Speculawyer

One thing they can do is start building the short range version but still require the premium option package so that it has a base of $40K.

Another Euro point of view

Something like this or make the base version as unattractive as can possibly be on purpose (creepy interior/colour). A Chinese GF that could produce a $35k version with still some margin left on it will not materialize by May next year yet so if any $35k version is sold by that time next year it has to be in very limited number.

ModernMarvelFan

I seriously doubt anyone would be able to have $3750 with the base Model 3. Maybe $1875 at best…

Basically paying for the color option.

TJKR

Me thinks Tesla is using the tax credit as carrot on a stick to sell more AWD and P to maximize their profit. If so the $35K version will be released after June 30, 2019.

Will

Color option should be free by then for waiting

Speculawyer

I know this is a very unpopular view….but I’m skeptical that they’ll be able to do it. That is just so cheap for an EV with 200+ mile range, built in California, using a fair amount of aluminum, etc.

If they can PROFITABLY pull it off, that will be amazing. But I’ll be happy if they can get down close to $40K. (Now thumbs down me! ;-))

Another Euro point of view

Thumbs down is often a sign of having a good situation analysis on EV forums.

Will

They could get a better margins if they put a steel roof. Cheap interior, manual seats, alloy wheels. They can control those margins that way

Lou Grinzo

And don’t forget, if they use manual seats, the car won’t waste electricity operating them and taking that juice away from propelling the car.

This joke brought to you by the TWO different Chevy dealers who told me that about the Bolt’s manual seats when I never asked about them. Seriously, these people need to be whipped with an EVSE cord set…

John

That’s pure comedy gold! The shiite that car salesmen come up with is brilliant.

JimInAuburn

The power used might not be an issue, but it is added weight for the motors. Also, when you are losing money on every car you make, you cut corners.

CarGuy

Good article.

Will

Another delay. I’m going with an i3 then

Speculawyer

Enjoy!

Nix

i3 starts at $45K, and ends up typically optioned to over $50K. It was never price competitive with the base Model 3 SR, it is priced more like the LR. But enjoy your i3.

Dan F.

i3 is overpriced for sure, but there is sometimes $10k off from BMW by way of certain electric utilities. Given its remarkably low mass it seems like it should have better MPGe. To get serious it needs 50-60 kwh not a range extender.

Speculawyer

I suspect that you can find some pretty good deals on the i3 these days. With the Model 3 and Bolt EV available, they just are not going to be able to get MSRP for that anymore.

Nate

Have no idea if this is still the case but the i3 has had good lease support allowing it to lease for dirt cheap.

bro1999

There are tons of manufacturer incentives on i3s. You know, because you can get discounts on non-Teslas. A $45k i3 is likely closer to 35-37k all said and done before state/federal incentives.

John

You can also get tons of discounts on used Teslas. As I type this, there’s 47 mid/upper $30k Teslas on Cargurus, in the same ballpark as an the i3 you speak of.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“…you can get discounts on non-Teslas”

Or to put it another way: Non-Tesla cars are intentionally overpriced with the expectation that the dealers will offer discounts to get people to buy their cars.

(If you doubt that legacy auto manufacturers deliberately overprice their cars, then read up on “dealer holdback”:)

https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/dealer-holdback/

Mark.ca

It’s the good deal illusion syndrome where you get a disconut down to the price the manufacturer actually wants to sell the car for and you feel good about yourself but in reality you got played.

Dima

The Nissan Leaf 2019 will arrive earlier I believe, with range over 200 miles.

Ldasdp

For how much? I am buying Tesla mission. I do not care about time. If I would have that amount of money, I would have bought a Model X. I am buying a dream. I am buying a wish against oil fumes in my lungs from ICE cars. Maybe at my age I will have no much time of life left to seat in this car and summon a self driving ride. I didn’t not care. I just wish to be respectful with the environment.. And no behave contrary.

Dan F.

To respect environment drive less, walk, ride bike, take bus, live close to work, buy less stuff, live with more people in one house, or in smaller dwelling, install solar water heater, energy upgrade house, etc. $50k powerful electric car not so much.

Nix

Both car makers are vague about their release dates, but yea, roughly around the same time, possibly sooner by a quarter for the Leaf.

David H

Vaporware

Another Euro point of view

Actually it would be quite funny if only very few of them were sold before for example imposing a $5k premium interior that would raise the price just at break even point. Then the few sold would become collectible items with some shown in museums with the description:

“This is the car that triggered the queues and the 400k revervation list. To our best knowledge 243 were produced and 96 still exist in private collections or museum around the world”.

bro1999

I predict the true $35k Model 3 will not be available in “8 months”. I’d make a bet, but people like nix would then refuse to make good on the bet. Lol

John

Sure. And guess what happens if your prediction comes true? (Hint- absolutely NOTHING. (Except your disappointment))

Nate

Sounds like you look forward to arguing with Nix for the next 8 months. Don’t you two have something better to do?

Terawatt

That’s so awesome… in June it was “still six months away”, but now, a little over halfway into that period, it’s only eight months away!

June 8: https://insideevs.com/musk-confirms-35000-base-tesla-model-3-still-6-months-away/

You gotta hand it to him, Elon never promises more than he’ll deliver, never paints a too-rosy picture…

I’m sorry, but to paint this as some kind of evidence that Musk is honest is extremely disingenuous. Tesla seems to be doing better, and I’m glad. Maybe his forecast is more plausible this time. But just because he says it is NO reason to believe it, given his track record.

Alex

I’ve been saying that base price would probably happening during Q2 2019. Apparently I was right, it’s better to ask me about Tesla dates, not Elon Musk :).

I think during 2019 the interest for base model 3 will be far from big because tax credit will be just being phased out.

Lou Grinzo

I think if we want to extend the tax credit in the US we need to convince Republicans that it disproportionately benefits the top 1%, and they’ll renew it, make it point of purchase, and increase it to $10k so fast you’ll get whiplash.

Rob R

The premium ICE cars from BMW, Mercedes etc are already dead men walking/driving in the US, the base Model 3 threatens the like of the Camry, Accord and Civic. It would kill them too, but even at 10k a week, Tesla won’t be making enough cars. However their relief will be short lived, they will not survive Model Y, when it gets sold in volume.
And when Tesla starts turning out both in China, at lower production costs, there will be no market in the world they cannot seize in similar fashion.
Only by producing electric cars of their own will the car companies be able to compete, and I do not mean the tiny, timid steps they are taking now. The longer they wait, the more of their market Tesla and the Chinese will take.

Shneepis

Premium ICE car sales are pretty consistent. Only thing is it has moved from sedans like the 3 series to SUV like the X series.
comment image

M3 Owned- Niro EV TBD - Former 500e and Spark EV,

Consistently down 10-20% since 2015 by your chart. One guess who’s eating the leader’s lunch? Will be further interesting as Q4 numbers come in as well as when SR starts up in Q2 on impacts.

Alex

But it’s increasing in 2018 from 2017! even if slightly. In Europe BMW sales, where there is not model 3, are actually going down (the age of the model 3 can influence it a bit).
Electric cars will replace ICE cars – that’s obvious, but if BMW and others will do things right, they’ll feel no pain regarding sales, they will replace their fleet to keep up with market trend.

BillT

The vast majority of Camry/Accord sell in the mid-twenties or lower so I don’t see the $37.5K in any color but black delivered model 3 being a threat to them unless Tesla decides to offer really cheap leases. CUVs are the real threat to these sedans but good for manufactures since they have higher ASPs. Once the model Y comes out I think the combination of model 3 + model Y will wreak havoc in the $40K – 60K entry level luxury sedan/CUV market that is currently the bread and butter for BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura and Infiniti. The German manufactures seem to at least be thinking about responding. The others not so much.

Andy

The Model Y is probably going to be around in 2022, but then it’s likely there will be several BEV models from BMW, Mercedes and Audi at least. Probably an updated E-Tron and EQC, the iNext and the BEV 3 series amongst others.

The Y will certainly sell, but more organic than havoc to at least the Germans. I wouldn’t put it past Lexus, Acura and Infiniti to have several models by that point too.

Dave K

Yes but those Camry/Accords will burn $10K in gas in 4-5 years and require maintenance. The Model 3s will use perhaps $1K in electricity and require none. The TCO is similar so Toyota and Honda better get serious, people will figure this out and really, would you rather drive a Honda or a Tesla? I’ve made my decision(Model 3 owner for 2 months)

Andy

The Model 3 does require maintenance. Go check the owners handbook. Brake fluid and battery coolant changes are required every couple of years (or yearly for higher mileage drivers). They won’t come cheap relative to Toyota/Honda service costs.

William

$2k a year in Gas for the first five years? Those aren’t average Camry/Accord 12k annual miles your referencing,

More like 15k mi. / 20k mi. Annual drive cycle mileage.

Nate

Not trying to put down your car, but your math used to justify is off. Fuel economy . gov -> 2019 camry 2.5L shows 34mpg combined and $1250 a year.
Hybrid model would be less money to fuel but I went with the regular gas one.

Used Prius would beat the LR model 3 by a long shot in TCO if TCO is really what you are basing your decision on.

Benz

The following is just a speculation:

Now that more and more Tesla Model 3 cars can be seen in the streets, more people will notice the car, and as a direct result of that the popularity of the Tesla Model 3 probably will increase substantially.

People who are in the process of making a choice about which car they want to buy, could add the Tesla Model 3 to their short-list.

What will the demand for a Long Range Tesla Model 3 look like in the US in 2019?

What will happen if Tesla receives more than half a million new orders for a Long Range Tesla Model 3 from US customers within a year from now? Which is not entirely impossible, because Tesla will eat marketshare from other car manufacturers in this car segment.

Tesla will produce and deliver them first.

And the $35,000 Standard Range Tesla Model 3 will have to be delayed again.

Simple as that.

John

I agree and have also been saying that. Model 3’s are rolling advertisements introducing previously unaware customers to the world of EVs. I see it happen all the time, folks who drive my Model S are gobsmacked. The idea that the Model 3 waiting list perpetually only shrinks until there’s NO one left to buy the product is laughable. It’s also funny to see the haters try and spin the popularity and glowing reviews of the Model 3 along with arguing that the car isn’t very popular.

Andy

The question is not “no one left to buy the product”, more “once reservations are fulfilled what is the organic sales rate”. Sure, more people will be interested when they see them on the street, that’s normal for all cars, but is it enough to increase the reservation list, or just enough to keep a nice sales number.

Pushmi-Pullyu

“Now that more and more Tesla Model 3 cars can be seen in the streets, more people will notice the car, and as a direct result of that the popularity of the Tesla Model 3 probably will increase substantially.”

I don’t think that statement needs any qualifiers. I think we’ve already seen compelling evidence this is already happening. Demand for the Model 3 is increasing… not decreasing, as the FÜDsters want us to believe!

Go Tesla! Keep going Tesla!

CCIE

Tesla’s aim is make profit, so here is how this will go:
1. Concentrate on US with LR+PUP M3 until January when federal tax credit halves and demand drops.
2. Begin international sales of LR+PUP M3. Continue until demand slackens.
3. Begin sales of LR without PUP (it’s debatable if this will ever happen).
4. Release SR+PUP M3 (they even may require AWD for a while to increase SR profit margin).
5. Sell a token number of stripped M3s at $35k+delivery to avoid lawsuits.

bro1999

So basically the whole reservation system was more or less useless for customers wanting a $35k 3. I, a non-Tesla owner, just went to Tesla’s website and it says I could have a $49k LR 3 in my driveway “within 4 weeks”. Likely some car a customer found too many defects with and rejected delivery previously. I’m sure those that stood in line 2+ years ago are feeling it was a great time investment. Lol
About 8 months Elon says….so maybe by Christmas next year in real world time? Maybe?

John

Just think, one year from now, when the $35k car is being produced along with all the others, imagine what you’ll have to grind about? It’s gotta be pretty exciting to think about all the future opportunities for moving the Tesla Failure Bar.

Pushmi-Pullyu

When the base Model 3 finally goes into production, those who have been waiting for that version are suddenly going to find their reservation pretty valuable again… if they have one!

“…so maybe by Christmas next year in real world time?”

It appears you’re no better at estimating times than Elon is. 🙄

Get Real

Yeah, more sour grapes from a serial Tesla basher/GM shill.

Assaf

Wow, yet another postponement, to almost 2 years after first deliveries of the more expensive version.

The 225-mile 2019 Leaf (not named Tesla, but 225 miles range and double the amount of trunk space) should be globally available for less by then, with global production capacity of at least 100k/year, likely much more. And it will have the full Fed rebate in the US rather than only half for the Model 3). Not to mention the Bolt which has been around forever, although with less volume and less automaker push.

I’m sure plenty of people will be happy to wait for the base Model 3, but it won’t be the revolution it has promised to be anymore.

John

There’s a dilemma, though. Sure, you can buy the Leaf. But its a one time expensive purchase, and its a sting to drop large cash for the Leaf only to see the car you really wanted come available 6 months later. That point is never brought up in terms of waiting for the $35k Model 3. Unfortunately for many, the Model 3 is compelling enough to wait for.. and wait for.. Heck, the Bolt is available now and folks aren’t flocking to it as the “Tesla Killer” it was touted to be. Granted, there’s plenty of folks here (like bro1999) that will tell you how bad the Model 3 sucks, but the verdict is in: the Model 3 is a great car. Great enough to cause a perpetual holding pattern for many.

Assaf

Most new Leafs in the US are leased. This will continue to be the case at least until the Fed rebate runs out, which at the current pace of US sales is a few years in the future.
And outside the US it will take even longer for the Model 3 to compete with the Leaf anyway.

John

Sure. But while leases can be cheaper than buying, it’s still money that could be put toward the better vehicle. Just my opinion.

Mark.ca

I think you are underestimating the brand’s popularity….mostly because your dim vision of them.

Assaf

That “dim vision” is a figment of your imagination. I have full respect for Tesla. I do critique them when warranted, though. For anyone except the blindest worshippers, there is a very clear reason to critique their base Model 3 strategy and track record.

Mark.ca

Oh, the “worshippers” rethoric again? Man, you guy are original!
That Model 3 strategy that you talk about made this car the best sold ev model ytd….so be quiet! If you think you can do better apply for a job with them and help out.

MAF

Cheap Tesla 3 vs top-end Camry is not an even comparison. Camry XSE is a larger car, with much more room; it also comes standard with a HUD, Adaptive Cruise.

Peter Elliot

“However, that’s about to change.” Hardly. 8 months is an age. Comparing a stripped out Tesla to a loaded Camry is also a little off.

I like the Model 3, but the $35K model will have very little government subsidy by then, and I’m cautious of the repair costs which seem higher than equivalent 35K cars.