Annual Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales To Hit 1.4 Million By 2020

JUN 11 2015 BY STAFF 7

Perhaps This Curve Better Fits Sales, Rather Than The Straight Up Arrow In The Other Graphic

Perhaps This Curve Better Fits Sales, Rather Than The Straight Up Arrow In The Other Graphic

The 2015 xEV Industry Insider Report, authored by Dr. Menahem Anderman, projects the following:

  • Combined annual global plug-in electric vehicle sales will grow from 350,000 today to 1.4 million by 2020
  • After 2020, the growth rate is expected to increase even more
  • Sharper growth expected for PHEVs than for EVs

On the battery front, the report states:

  • Lithium-ion battery market for plug-in electric cars totaled $4.1 billion in 2014 and will reach $10.7 billion in 2020
  • LG Chem and Panasonic are the market leaders; with Samsung, GS Yuasa and AESC listed as significant players

Dr. Anderman is founder and chairman of the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC).  This year’s AABC is scheduled for June 15-19 in Detroit, Michigan.

Source: Green Car Congress

Categories: General

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7 Comments on "Annual Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales To Hit 1.4 Million By 2020"

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I wonder.

Can somebody run EU air quality requirements to be, and turn them in to minimum *EVs sold in EU in 2020?

The question is whether or not government mandates and regulations for emissions are realistic goals. California’s CARB has tried at least twice to dictate to automobile manufacturers that they have to sell X number of zero-emission vehicles… and at least twice they’ve had to roll back those requirements, because they were not realistic goals. On the other hand, it is entirely possible for most or possibly all auto manufacturers to produce cars with improved average fuel efficiency. Europe has already gone a long way towards pushing higher efficiency standards, partly or mostly thru high at-the-pump taxes on gasoline and diesel. Thankfully the Obama administration is now, thankfully and finally, after decades of delay, pushing American car makers down the same path by requiring significant improvements in fuel efficiency in new cars sold in the USA. Significantly raising the gas tax is not possible in the current political climate here in the USA, so it’s doubly surprising and impressive that the Obama administration has achieved that goal. * * * * * Let’s be honest here: PEVs (Plug-in EVs) still are “not ready for prime time”. The technology isn’t there to make PEVs fully competitive with gas guzzlers. The battery makers… Read more »

If Tesla is right about their sales in 2020, they would sell about a third of all plug-ins, one of both might be wrong.

Well, both are certainly wrong. They are just estimates designed to give a rough idea where they think the market will be. I’d be impressed if either one is correct within +/- 20% window.

Tesla is the one trying to make it come true though buy building the gigafactory to push down battery prices. If they really got the Model 3 price down to $35K, I think they would sell as many as they could build. But I doubt they hit that price. But even if they are close, they’ll sell lots of them.

I think this “insider Report” might be off by a lot. If we look at sales from this year compared to las year, plug-in sales rose some 50-55%, that means this year might come close to 500,000 plug ins. That means plug in sales would have to continue with a lot weaker improvement rate of 22% over the next 5 years. If they could hold their momentum a little bit longer, 2018 will surpass those 2020 figures by 20.000. With a lot of new (mostly German) phevs entering new markets over the next 2 years and lots of next gen EVs in 2017-2018, that should be possible.

When it comes to EV related stock performance, these so-called “insider reports” are without any value whatsoever. I’ve never seen any so-called “financial analysis” that had any relation to future real-world performance. You’d do just as well at predicting future growth by using a dartboard, blindfolded.

I think, and I’m not alone in thinking this, that these so-called “insider reports” are just a method for a stock broker firm to promote whatever stocks they want to promote at the moment.

Perhaps in other fields, unrelated to EVs, these analyses actually have some value. I don’t know; I don’t play the stock market. But I have read enough about these predictions from various financial firms to know that my own guesses are more reliable than their “insider” predictions.

That’s a pretty good number. It allows BYD and others in China to grow at a reasonable rate which I’d expect for the lower-priced vehicles. For the rest of the world, not much we can do other than guess a 10-15% annual compounded increase unless something happens with oil prices. Tesla should touch 100,000 per year by 2017 but certainly won’t hit 500,000 by 2020.

“Sharper growth expected for PHEVs than for EVs”

Agreed because of the lower battery prices and higher savings on cost-of-scale buildout. For instance, if Ford’s Energi models get to a point of double their current AER range and lower their prices, it could help. Continued dropping of Volt prices also helps. Someone needs a good EREV / PiHV CUV model on the market to get families on-board in the USA.

One negative of “new car sales” is of course, used-car sales. Buying a used Volt for $15k now or a new one for $33k. Which seems more of a value play?