Analysts: Global Market For Tesla Model S, X & 3 Is Approximately 19 Million


Tesla Model 3 Renderings

Tesla Model 3 Renderings (via @easychargeme)

In a recent note, Jefferies analysts Dan Dolev and Trevor Young presented findings from a Tesla owners survey, but in those findings was a total market size prediction that’s gone largely unnoticed by the media.

Dolev and Young conclude:

“Our detailed analysis of actual US/North America sales and pricing by make and model across 200+ different models implies an aggregate global total available market of ~19m vehicles for Models S, X and III combined, or roughly 75% above our initial estimate.”

This conclusion comes via these survey findings:

“On average, owners assign a ~60% premium to Tesla, which could widen its global total available market by ~75%. On average, owners were willing to pay ~60% more for a Tesla, so that introducing Model III by 2017 (expected ASP of +/-$50K) should help Tesla tap into the $35K+ price point.”

The suggestion here is that even at $50,000, the Model 3 would appeal to the car buyer looking to spend only $35,000.  That’s because there’s a 60% premium assigned to the Tesla name, at least according to a small group of current Tesla owners.

If true, then Tesla potentially has access to a market of 19 million buyers.  Does this mean that we’ll see 19 million Teslas on the road soon?  Well, no, but it does imply that there’s a much larger potential market for Tesla than most of us previously thought.

Model X Wtih Front Nosecone Added

Model X Wtih Front Nosecone Added

Category: Tesla

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34 responses to "Analysts: Global Market For Tesla Model S, X & 3 Is Approximately 19 Million"
  1. gsned57 says:

    I’m waiting for the used market to drop below 30K 🙂 I might be waiting a while

    1. offib says:

      I’m waiting for any used EV (with QC) to drop below €4K. :\

      1. przemo_li says:

        Same here but I would like something more like 10k euro 😉

        1. Anderlan says:

          Used Twizy?

      2. Gsned57 says:

        In the states there are a bunch of used I-miev’s for $7,000 which is pretty close to your price point. When they get to the $3k-$4k range I’ll probably have to pull the trigger on one.

      3. Abhishek says:

        I am from India and can pay upto 10000 euro for used leaf.

      4. Mike777 says:

        Consumer Reports recommends you look at Leaf’s coming off lease.

        These are real deals.
        Along with the fact that you can at some point get a replacement battery if needed.

  2. Roberto says:

    Same here.
    I will wait for the model s p85 used for the time being and see if I get lucky

  3. Alaa says:

    I am waiting for the 120+kw model 3 that will have a range of 600 miles.

    1. Speculawyer says:

      Why? Why pay thousands extra for something you only use 1% of the time? Sounds like a really silly plan. And on the rare long distance trips, why not enjoy an hour break for a charge and meal?

      1. Typical pusher analyst nonsense.

        1. Speculawyer says:

          What does that even mean?

      2. Koenigsegg says:

        He’s the hard ass that makes no stops on a 600 mile road trip!

    2. Jelloslug says:

      I think a day in-day out 300 mile car is about perfect.

    3. Mike says:

      So you’re a 12-hour, non-stop driving, pee in a bottle, kind of guy, are you?

      1. nakedChimp says:

        He might be the 600 mile roadtrip guy in an area where there is not much public charging available.. maybe he avoids urban areas, who knows?
        Just relax, not all people are equal.

  4. Doug B says:

    Waiting for a 300 mile small electric van/camper.

  5. pjwood1 says:

    Price elasticity, is another way econ geeks should look at Tesla sales.

  6. Robert says:

    Staying the course fir a Model 3! Thinking Tesla could build Electric School Buses – extending/enlarging the Model X for that!
    Thus gets the Electric Tesla’s right in front if their future buyers!

    Stretch Model X Limo’s could be impressive too – maybe with 140 – 180 kWh’s worth under tgem , they could be the first such vehicles to deliver 500 miles range! Thus covers/introduces Electric Silence to the Board Room Players, Wedding Parties, and party crowd that might not think of Electric Vehicles, as well!

    Limousine users might not be as demanding as Pickup owners as well, like needing towing of 9,000 lb trailers, etc. Also, School Buses puts clean transportation with the kids, reducing the amount of bus idling kids need to deal with and breathe! Enough child hood Asthma!

    1. Anon says:

      I keep fantasizing about a Tesla Electric Lawnmower. I hate the gas powered Toro Mulcher I’m using.

      Got rid of the gas leafblower, then replaced the weed trimmer with an electric Ryobi. Used electric hedge trimmers for all the shrub, many years. Much happier doing yard work now.

      But an electric Tesla Lawnmower… I would pay a premium for. It would be red. It would be sexy and have more than enough torque and plenty of battery power to keep up with my 1/4 acre lot. No choking, disease causing blue-white smoke, low noise, and cheap operating costs. *dreams*

      1. Dude, I just bought the Ryboi electric mower to replace my Toro gas mower that kept costing me in maintenance $$$. Love the Ryobi, 20″ deck came with two batteries and the charger for $400. I have a 1/2 acre lot and can mow the front in the morning, then recharge the batteries and mow the back in the afternoon. Very quiet, good mower, very light weight. So no need to wait for the Tesla mower, the future is now!

      2. Jelloslug says:

        I have a 36v self-propelled Black and Decker mower that works great for my 1/4 lot.

      3. Rich says:

        I’ve had a greenworks G-MAX 40V for 2.5 seasons. I love it. I have 2 x 4amp hr batteries and have no problems handling 1/3 acre. I can’t justify the price difference with gas and maintenance savings but who cares. I view it as a luxury item. Light, quiet, no maintenance, totally enjoyable. Check out the Ego 56v at homedepot.

      4. Mike777 says:

        I have a Black and Decker too.
        My poor neighbor spent days cleaning a carb of a gas motor, then took it to a shop.

      5. Speculawyer says:

        I have a small lot, so I just use an electric push mower with a cord. Yeah, I’ve run over the cord 5 or so times. Just a little electrical tape and it is back in action.

        But this year I have nothing to mow since I didn’t turn on the sprinklers and I just let the grass die. I think I’ll buy some fake grass instead. No watering and no mowing.

  7. Bill says:

    Anon, All my lawn gear is electric and all powered by solar. Black and Decker makes a self-propelled electric mower with quick swap 36v batteries so it can also handle large yards. I’ve had the B&D about a year-and-half and been very happy with it.

  8. Rich says:

    I’m in the $24K car range and may be willing to go to $30K. If a moderately equipped Model 3 comes in at $50K then I’ll be buying a Leaf. If a $50K price point would fly, the i3 Rex would be selling more than the minimal numbers it is. IMO

  9. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    The article says:

    “The suggestion here is that even at $50,000, the Model 3 would appeal to the car buyer looking to spend only $35,000. That’s because there’s a 60% premium assigned to the Tesla name, at least according to a small group of current Tesla owners.”

    This is extrapolating from a single data point and jumping rather far to a conclusion. A proper comparison would be to other early adopters of cutting edge tech, and comparing that to how rapidly or slowly the tech caught on.

    Sometimes cutting edge tech never breaks through to the mainstream. I spent something like $1100 for a laserdisc player. Back in the day, if you had taken a survey of those who spent that much for a laserdisc player, you might conclude that there was a large market for laserdisc players. But that never did develop. It wasn’t until the debut of DVDs that the market for high-resolution home video took off.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that the EV revolution will forever be stuck in the “early adopter” phase. But sales of the Model S may not be a good barometer for a wider market for Tesla cars. Would analyzing the sales for the Roadster have indicated the relatively high sales volume of the Model S? No. There was no way back in the days before the Model S was produced that it would become the most highly praised (by auto reviewers) car ever made, or that Consumer Reports would call it “The best car we ever reviewed.”

    Will the Model ≡ be as well received by auto reviewers, and by the public at large? Well, as a Tesla enthusiast, I hope so! But we’ll have to wait to see what actually happens. Until the Model ≡ actually goes on sale, we can only guess how popular it will be. Trying to read the tea leaves can be fun, but let’s not pretend anyone’s attempt is more than just a guess.

    1. leaf owner says:

      My take – this may be true for the model S but not so much for the model 3. There will be several other options in that price range like the next gen leaf, i3, Bolt, etc…in the near future with a 200 mile range. Tesla will need to be within 20% of these at max or they will not be mass adopted.

  10. Vitold says:

    This analysis is as silly as UBS 2025 prediction that Tesla will not meet their goals. What we maybe looking at is ‘Analyst Wars’: Little to do with Tesla, a lot with investing and marketing.

  11. Speculawyer says:

    If Tesla actually pulls off a 200+ mile EV that looks good and costs $35K, they’ve got a potential market of 10s of millions of cars. The gasoline savings alone would make such a car a bargain.

    And then throw in being able to charge at home, no smog checks, no oil changes, less maintenance, fewer repairs, no stinky toxic exhaust, very quiet, no vibration, no lurching transmission, etc. Gas cars seem so clunky after you’ve driven an electric for a while.

  12. Steven says:

    So what are the global penetration of the top fifty brands in comparison? Somehow, I still think 19 million is a reasonable number. And remember, that doesn’t include models that aren’t in the pipeline yet.

  13. ModernMarvelFan says:

    Analysts, AKA clueless self claimed experts…