Analysts: Tesla Needs To Stop Over Promising & Under Delivering

Silver Tesla Model 3 charging

NOV 3 2017 BY STEVEN LOVEDAY 148

Tesla Model 3

Tesla CEO Elon Musk at the Model 3 handover event.

Tesla shares are down and many analysts are preaching about the same issues related to the automaker, which comes as no surprise, but ratings haven’t really changed.

According to Reuters:

“Four major houses – including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan – cut their price targets by $5-$10 after the electric carmaker reported its worst ever quarterly loss and pushed back production targets for its Model 3 vehicle by three months.

While shares in Silicon Valley star Musk’s venture were still up 50 percent for the year, reflecting faith in its positioning as a major future manufacturer, the company’s share price has now retreated 23 percent since mid-September.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk

Perhaps it seemed to some that the Model 3 would be different. There was a belief out there that Tesla may have turned a corner. We’ve reported about many a bullish forecast in the recent past. The automaker’s more affordable mass-market electric car arrived on time and the already ridiculous level of excitement accelerated to absurd. Deep down inside, however, many probably knew it may be too good to be true. Nonetheless, Tesla remained popular on Wall Street.

Thursday, Tesla stock fell over 6 percent (real-time quote here), but ratings still remain nearly the same. Of 24 brokerages, 7 say sell. Back in May, it was 6 of 21. Six months ago, 7 recommended buying the automaker’s stock, and now that number has gone up to 8. However, the ratings don’t necessarily tell the whole story. Cowen and Co told analysts in a note:

“Tesla needs to slow down and more narrowly focus its vision and come up for a breath of fresh air. Elon Musk needs to stop over promising and under delivering.”

The different houses were still quite divided about whether or not Model 3 production issues are truly worked out, as well as the automaker’s future cash situation. Berstein’s Toni Sacconaghi, who has a price target of $265 and a “market-perform” rating, wrote:

“With Tesla’s cash drain growing and production and gross margin visibility low, we see TSLA as a show me story. (It) is clearly still struggling with production issues.”

Goldman believes Tesla will have to raise more capital yet again by the second quarter of 2018. The broker recommends selling Tesla shares due in part to Musk’s statement that the automaker will not begin financing efforts in China until after 2019. There was an assumption that that automaker would be making progress in China in the near future.

Source Reuters

Categories: Tesla

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply

148 Comments on "Analysts: Tesla Needs To Stop Over Promising & Under Delivering"

newest oldest most voted

Part of the job of a CEO is over promising (to a degree) it’s just the consistently under delivering that is a problem. Sooner or later it just becomes lying and while they’ve gotten away with it for a long time because of their cred and the $ they’ve made people it does seem to be catching up with them.

Sooner or later you aren’t the new kid on the block anymore and people aren’t going to be so forgiving of your repeated transgressions.

+1

Publicly traded company != startup

The customers are one factor, the investors are another. Investors are seldom satisfied but the customers are in this case.

I have a beautiful vision of a company leading the EV revolution building line after line of EV’s that each are hands down better in every way than the ICE competitors in the same price/size/class.

Each one bites deep into the ICE sales in that vehicle’s market sector, displacing gas faster than any other EV car maker. And without any conflicts of interest with their ICE line of cars, they have no reason to sandbag or cripple their EV’s.

They put out line after line of EV’s superior to their ICE counterparts, forcing ICE car companies to follow or die.

Now if the cost of that is that they are a quarter late on delivery on each and every revolutionary vehicle they bring to market, I’m damn happy with that trade-off.

And part of being a professional stock investor is knowing how to make money trading TSLA even if the CEO doesn’t do what you want them to do. If they haven’t figured out how to do that yet, they should focus on that instead of spending their time complaining.

No. Investing is not trading. Investors need *accurate* and timely information to properly value companies over the long term.

So far I count three SEC investigations into Tesla’s withholding of material developments and odd accounting:

https://amp.businessinsider.com/sec-probes-tesla-over-customer-numbers-report-2017-5

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-autopilot-sec-20160711-snap-story,amp.html

https://www.google.com/amp/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/8489D670-B5B2-11E6-BEE8-C932EFF43B53

blah blah blah.

Actually, this specific person is neither if you want to get all technical. He gives away advice for free to the entire internet. Do you know what the term is when a company gives out something for free to draw attention to themselves?

Advertising.

This is an advertisement, to draw your attention to those companies, in the hopes that you agree with their advertisement and then purchase their services.

So if you are going to get pedantic, at least be astute enough to recognize free advertisement content when it is fed to you.

So I checked each of those SEC inquiries you posted. None of them resulted in any actions at all against Tesla by the SEC.

But you KNOW this. One of the stories you posted even explains that after exchanging letters that the SEC was finally satisfied that there were no violations in the end. The story whines like crazy about the number of letters it took before the SEC was ultimately satisfied with what Tesla was doing, but the SEC in the end took no action none the less.

What you are doing is called yellow journalism. That is where you imply guilt by posting accusations.

So BAN this guy.
Lier’s should be BANNED.

One day karma will come to bite you and serial distorters / misdirecters in the arse.

Yawn. I give your post a 2/10. You didn’t even put any effort into whining. At least fabricate something like the other trolls. Come on, put some effort into trolling if you are going to bother doing it at all.

The only points you scored was for using the British spelling for posterior.

Have you ever considered that Tesla’s continued success, even after delays, even after all you nay-sayers predicted their demise, is actually Karma coming to bite the old ICE car makers on their backsides?

Karma is a Bvtch, and the ICE car makers have a lot of bad karma weighing them down. Such bad, bad karma it isn’t even funny. Do you need me to expound on that point?

Well said Nix. Totally agree

How do you spell lying troll in Russian.
Lier’s should be banned.

Mystery said:

“One day karma will come to bite you and serial distorters / misdirecters in the arse.”

Apparently you’re talking to yourself, since what you say quite obviously doesn’t apply to Nix. Seems rather odd for you to publicly scold yourself for all the FUD you post, practicing self-flagellation in a public forum. But then, trolls often exhibit strangely anti-social behavior.

If Musk knows he is overpromising, it actually is a crime. You can’t tell your investors, that your company is will soon have a product which will lead to a great increase in sales and earnings, if you know this date is not possible.
So over promising clearly is not part of a CEOs job. You can make your product look good, but you can’t overpromise.

That’s a rather strange idea, Ben: to hold any party criminally liable for under-performance, for trying, for not succeeding, for owning a claim. We don’t live that way in the U.S.

If you own shares, feel free to sell.

It’s not a liability issue. It’s a fraud issue. If a CEO represents that X is true, it needs to be true. It can’t be aspirational; it must be fact.

When projecting the future there are no “facts”. You can’t lie about the capability of a product, but you can be optimistic about the future.

“It can’t be aspirational; it must be fact.” Oh come now, 4E, at least make some attempt to make your lies plausible! This is just insulting our intelligence. All but the most clueless investors know that it’s not only standard, but expected that company spokesmen talk optimistically about their company’s future. In fact, a corporate officer could be charged with fiduciary irresponsibility if he does not do so. The fact that such optimistic, often all too optimistic, statements are such a regular and expected part of investor relations is why corporations always include boilerplate disclaimers in formal statements. Here’s part of Tesla’s disclaimer from its most recent SEC filing: The discussions in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q contain forward-looking statements reflecting our current expectations that involve risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements concerning our strategy, future operations, future financial position, future revenues, projected costs, profitability, expected cost reductions, capital adequacy, expectations regarding demand and acceptance for our technologies, growth opportunities and trends in the market in which we operate, prospects and plans and objectives of management. The words “anticipates”, “believes”, “could”, “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “may”, “might”, “plans”, “projects”, “will”, “would” and similar… Read more »

It seems you are not able to see the big difference. It is no problem if goals are not reached. This is just the nature of the game. No need to discuss that.

But it is a problem, when a CEO knows the goal can not be reached and is making people believe it will. That is fraud. There is a reason why companies use profit warnigs and ad hoc releases. Keep ensured every investor knows what goals will be reached and what not and prevent insider trade. If Musk as a big shareholder knows about a problem, which public shareholders are not told about, it really is a problem. Knowledge of future events, makes a big difference in law.

But you have to have provide proof that someone lied about goal and that at the time something was said it was based on lies.

This is not easy and there is big difference.

I dont think ELON lies at any given point, regardless what he say, I never got that impression from him. He just hopes for best possible outcome.

Also, if we goes after he track record, he never lied, he was just always late!

“when a CEO knows the goal can not be reached”

All available evidence shows that if it were not for the issue with the battery pack assembly, the goal COULD have been reached in Q3.

Burst tests were successful on the rest of the assembly line at 500+ units/week, and Tesla only needed to hit 375/week to meet their Q3 guidance. Destructive testing of BIW’s have validated build quality. They have completed cars running on the road today that show very high fit and finish quality (you can even watch a full hour of up-close detailed video and see for yourself).

So now all you have to do to prove your claim that Elon KNEW “the goal can not be reached”, is to prove that Elon KNEW FOR A FACT that this one bottleneck with the battery pack assembly would happen. And that Elon KNEW FOR A FACT that the fix would cause a 3 month delay.

Go ahead, post that specific evidence.

Oh, I don’t know GM transgressed for decades, but then they did finally go bankrupt, so I guess you are right.

It took an economic collapse to bring down GM.
It wiuld only take a small market correction to bring down Tesla right now.

LOL. Undelivering Best In Class Cars.
Childish advice from Analysts who have done nothing and built nothing.

And what exactly has Tesla over promised? There is a big difference between a ambitious goal and a promise!

“So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.” – Elon Musk, May 2016

Failing to meet your self-imposed expectations is the definition of overpromising and underdelivering.

So “aim to produce” is a promise now?

A self-proclaimed “expectation” is, yes.

NOPE, IT IS NOT!

You are just inventing reasons to hate on Tesla!

What good reason does the CEO of the company have to share that information if not to provide certain expectations to the audience? You’re inventing reasons to let Tesla off the hook.

It is common for those who don’t exercise critical thinking to describe a company’s announced goal as a “promise”. It is also completely wrong, in both the logical and the ethical sense. It’s doubly wrong in this particular case, as Elon has said numerous times that the odds made it almost impossible for that announced goal to be achieved. Basically, Tesla said “We can produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3’s in 2017 if everything goes right… but it’s almost certain that not everything will go right.” Calling that “over-promising” is, quite simply, wrong. Now, is Tesla guilty of over-promising elsewhere? Yes, it most certainly is. It’s guilty of over-promising on such things as its problematic falcon-wing doors, and describing the Model 3 as “easy to manufacture”, and claiming that Tesla learned its lesson with the overly ambitious Model X. Quite clearly Tesla has not learned its lesson. Failure to plan ahead properly and in a timely fashion is what lead to many problems with the Model X, including the problematic falcon wing doors. Failure to plan ahead and exercise proper oversight of the installation of the Model 3 battery pack production line at Gigafactory One is, apparently, the source of… Read more »

kudos to you for graduating from blindfolded cheerleader school. Now if you will reason that is Makes No sense how the Non-US claimed TSLA Model s & x sales Cannot Possibly come from China, when their 16k 2016 sales were a Joke of a Mkt share, and 65%+ of All Worldwide EV sales are from China. those Unknown Unaccounted to send User Registrations sales are the Smoking Gun Mystery!

You must have failed FUDster school. Your attempt at FUD is gibberish. Since no one can understand your word salad, you’re just wasting your time.

His kaled attempt at salad needs some a dressing. Crouton a green more!

^^ LOL!! You are killing me!

You don’t answer questions because you can’t read nor do math. Typical DJT and Musk tactics. Go back to your cheerleader cave and practice bending over. blind mice keep boring and being taken to their leader. Sad

An expectation fed to investors. This wasn’t a random tweet to a fandom fan’s question. Elon built up spectacular expectations for investors that are now blowing up in his face.

You clearly haven’t been paying attention, because that was not at all the official guidance that was repeated after that single utterance in the distant past.

“An expectation fed to investors.”

There is an expectation that investors should realize that an investment is a gamble, and that gambles don’t always pay off.

There is also an expectation that an investor should do his homework, and look at the history of the company before investing. Any such look would quickly reveal that Tesla chronically overestimates its production guidance. Whining about Tesla missing its guidance is exactly what a Tesla hater like you does; it’s not what a wise investor does.

“Elon built up spectacular expectations for investors that are now blowing up in his face.”

Tesla haters and stock shorters continually build up spectacular expectations for Tesla’s failure, which continually blow up in their faces. Just how much money have you lost on shorting Tesla stock, dude? I’ll bet it’s more than you’re willing to admit! 😀

In another quarter or three, Tesla will be back on track with Model 3 production… but you will still be a loser and a troll.

Go Tesla!

Analysts are a dime a dozen, of course they get paid a lot more, but here is one with a contrarian view, and a well know one, which is really no recommendation just a fact.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/call-week-tesla-future-transportation-biggest-opportunity-tech-195101085.html

“There is also an expectation that an investor should do his homework, and look at the history of the company before investing. Any such look would quickly reveal that Tesla chronically overestimates its production guidance.

So in other words, it’s everyone else’s fault for not realizing that Elon was obviously lying and not to be taken seriously.

Whatever it takes to avoid culpability for Elon!

Spider-Dan said:

“So in other words, it’s everyone else’s fault for not realizing that Elon was obviously lying and not to be taken seriously.”

1. It’s not everyone’s responsibility; just investors and industry watchers. That certainly includes everyone knowingly posting FUD about Tesla.

2. Generally, statements like the one you refer to are called “spin” rather than “lying”. I personally won’t disagree with your characterization, but then it seems pretty clear I have a higher standard for Truth than a lot of people.

It is fair to point out that it’s not a “lie” if you believe it.

I am willing to accept the possibility that Elon is not lying, but is merely delusional.

Yea, what a bastard for him being a visionary who is dedicated to getting the world off of oil addiction that is polluting the earth. How dare he push harder, faster, and be more determined to change the world than typical car company CEO’s?

How dare he operate on “the urgency of now” with an optimism that he can actually affect change?

He should just be more like Sergio Marchionne and whine and complain and drag his feet, right?

No. He should be more like Carlos Ghosn or Mary Barra, and try to keep his whimsical claims within the scope of reality.

I would rather see a Tesla with steady, reliable growth than one which makes wild promises and has the investor rug yanked out from underneath it due to perpetually missing targets. No one is forcing Elon to set these absurdly unrealistic goals, and so all of this press about failed production goals is completely unforced error.

Underpromise and overdeliver, not the opposite.

Dan mumbled “I would rather see a Tesla with steady, reliable growth” You mean like how Tesla is the World’s top EV car maker in the world so far in 2017? With growth unheard of in the automotive industry? Here are the actual results that these CEO’s have delivered this year: #1 in the World — Tesla with 73,227 EV’s YTD How are your hero’s doing? 6) Nissan 39,993 7) Chevy 36,983 https://insideevs.com/record-123000-evs-were-sold-worldwide-in-september/ This is despite both those companies getting their mass market cars to market before Tesla. Both having a huge price advantage over Tesla. Both having a massive size advantage, with huge sales/service networks globally. And yet with all their advantages, they are selling half as many cars as Tesla globally. Maybe they should be more like Elon, and over-promised on dates, but deliver huge numbers anyways even if they are late. Instead of setting expectations low, and then living up to the low expectations they set for themselves. If they had put the same effort into it as Tesla, these guys should be both burying Tesla in global sales. And yet they are far behind in 6th and 7th places instead.

Let us set aside for the moment that the actual term you meant to use was “worldwide sales, except for China.”

My version of history extends further back than January 1, 2017. There’s a reason why you said “most EVs sold this year” and not the last 5 years, or the last 10 years. Furthermore, Tesla has done all that without the requirement of profitability; that’s certainly a nice bonus, but also means that Tesla’s existence is not based on existing physical assets, but purely on investor goodwill.

And so we get to my point: a company that exists purely because of positive projection from investors should do more to avoid unnecessary unforced errors by setting unattainable goals. Tesla already has enough goodwill that Elon doesn’t NEED to set crazy fantasy goals to keep investors onboard. But for whatever reason (his own ego?) he does so anyway.

Dan — go read the link. It is Worldwide, INCLUDING China.

And I used 2017 numbers, because we’re talking about GROWTH, not who got to market first in 2010 and had a couple of years head start to get a higher lifetime total.

Tesla started mass production later, and now sells more globally.

That’s growth.

Sorry you can’t read and understand what the term “worldwide” means, and don’t understand how growth works.

Sadly you don’t know the difference between actual official guidance numbers, and a single utterance that was NEVER repeated and was NEVER official guidance.

Anybody investor who ignored all of the actual official guidance numbers that came after that, and continued to pretend that this single utterance was official guidance simply failed to do their due diligence.

Now you expect Wall Street to make the same mistake as you?

Your professional analysis doesn’t help the shorts generate hysteria though!

LOL!!

You are the same person that insists that only Tesla’s official statements to investors count, and that Tesla has no legal responsibility to any other statement made.

This statement came on the Q1 2016 earnings call. And now you want to claim it doesn’t count because they said something different later? What about the investors who made decisions when that statement was given?

Here is the actual quote from Elon, from that Q1 2106 earnings call:

So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.

This is what you’re characterizing as both a “promise” and a “lie”, Spider-Dan?

Most people don’t confuse what the speaker describes as a “guess” with a “promise”. Your attempt to characterize one as the other comes across as both disingenuous and mendacious. Spider-Dan, you should make sure your own house is in order before you get so free with accusing someone else of a “lie”.

I don’t have you down on my short list of outright trolls, Spider-Dan; but here you’ve definitely engaged in some trolling. I hope you take a giant step back, because you’re definitely over the line here. ?

I commend you for including the crucial second sentence of that quote.

If the only quote out there was Elon making a “guess,” you have some wiggle room. In this case, that wiggle room existed for approximately 10 seconds, until Elon upgraded that “guess” to an “expectation.”

When the CEO of a company states on a quarterly earnings call what his “expectations” for deliverables on a current major project are, that is not a dinner conversation or a random tweet. That is a statement of the outcome the CEO expects to take place, as opposed to other outcomes (e.g. more units or less units produced).

It’s one thing if you’re talking about sales; you can make product available, but you can’t force customers to buy them. But production is something that is within Tesla’s control. Part of the rationale for building the GF (instead of simply buying batteries from manufacturers with their own existing plants) is Tesla’s enhanced oversight and control of the process. That rationale is clearly failing the Model 3 as of right now.

Some people don’t understand the meaning of the word promise!
Or it’s usage

As as been stated before Wall Street has always gotten UPDATED advise on Tesla’s Progress.

This guy is a good candidate to BAN.

Every product they offer is always delayed…What’s the definition of insanity? Its like the friend or family member who always needs to borrow money from you but rarely pays it back…That’s on you for ignoring their patterns past behaviors…

But…but….Tesla “delivered” the Model 3 early! Sure, they were sham deliveries to employees locked down by NDAs, but sham deliveries count for something, right?

Of course people are driving them around and going shopping to work wherever. I suppose they might be surprised to find that their cars really don’t exist.

GM will produce 20 electric vehicles in the near future. Now that’s a sham.

You can repeat the Big Lie that all Tesla Model 3 deliveries are “sham” until you’re blue in the face, but that does not change the facts. The facts are that real people are driving real Tesla Model 3’s around right now, and that the money they paid Tesla for those cars is real.

“Facts are stubborn things.” — John Adams

Exactly. Only on Wall Street is an actual product in employee hands, following the announced rollout to the letter, a sham.

More like lending to a pal you know always will pay back. You also know you won’t get it the date you said but when you get it you get it with a very generous interest.

Also…that pal is changing the world into something a lot better.

“Every product they offer is always delayed … Its like the friend or family member who always needs to borrow money from you but rarely pays it back”

Except even though delayed, Tesla DOES “pay it back” in the long run. And in the long run the delays have zero long term impact on their sales.

Do you think it matters any single bit that the Model S rollout of their initial 12,000 reservations was slower than planned? Model S sales totals certainly don’t show any real impact. Tesla just broke 250,000 S/X sales. The delays on the first single digit percent of those sales is literally a rounding error.

The Model 3 is the same way. Most folks realistically predicted around 20K sales or so in all of 2017. It SEEMS like that is a lot, and a big deal.

But by the time they hit full volume this will be the equivalent of 2 weeks worth of production.

2 weeks.

Over the 10 year span that Tesla projects for the Model 3, this delay will have zero impact over the long term.

It does matter, because timelines affect discounted cash flows, and thus how a company is valued by investors. A company that makes a billion dollars in profit in 2018 is worth more than one which makes its billion dollars on 2025.

Investors can dry their eyes with the $100 dollar bill that each share they hold has earned them since Dec of last year.

It must suck for them to have to suffer like that.

GTFOTFI

Add to that the missing features, buyer NDAs, NO HUD or gauging, expensive feature bundling, and ready availability of the Bolt, and buyers and shareholders alike have reason to be cautious.

My revised Q1-2018 delivery really feels like it will be Q3-2018. With all of that, plus the possibility of the EV subsidy evaporating by then, I’m rethinking my Model 3 reservation.

Great! Please do cancel. That way, I get to move up.

The Bolt is no panacea, and it’s no Model 3 but get one if you really need a car atm.

Let Tesla do what they do, the other ICE OEMs are not committed to an all encompassing satisfying EV driving experience.

Instead, they are committed to delivering their products on schedule.

LOL!! You mean like how VW/Audi has delivered all those cars they’ve been talking about endlessly on time?

Or like how the 2016 Volt was delayed and became the 2017 Volt for most of the US?

Don’t even get me started on the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. Oh boy.

The reality is that the industry is full of EV concepts failing to make it to market by original guidance (or not at all), and delayed deliveries and delayed updates. Failed delivery targets, slow rollouts that don’t deliver the volumes expected in the original timelines, etc.

EV’s that were delivered on time, on price, in the volume originally targeted are by far the exception. A rarity.

Any exception you provide is the exception that proves the rule.

Well you got that right. It’s like every other day a new concept ev is touted. GM is going to all in on electric, when is that really.

Yes they have they Bolt, mostly built by LG Chem, at least the most important drive train, and battery pack. It’s not a bad car, though too expensive for what you get.

Probably by March 2018 the Model 3 production will blow by the Bolt, which will only do around 20k a year anyway, if that.

What are you talking about? The 2016 Volt was never delayed. It was released exactly on the schedule GM said it would be.

The GEN II Volt was supposed to be released nationwide a few months after being released in CARB states.

It wasn’t. It was delayed. In fact, it was delayed for a full model year for nationwide release.

“…they are committed to delivering their products on schedule.”

Presumably you are not talking about the erratic and problem-ridden rollout of the Chevy Bolt EV?

You’re dreaming. There was no problem with the roll out, and the few problems that the BOLT ev had (of which I was one who had a problem), were fixed with ONE dealer visit. The rollout was so successful they moved the schedule up by a full 30 days, albeit because they had more bolt evs than they thought they would have at the time. This is against the experience of several lately on TMC, where a fender bender takes over 6 months to repair, if ever, and that a ‘slight’ collision requiring a new headlight cannot be effected since there isn’t a single spare Headlamp assembly anywhere in the country for a model “S”. When I purchased my BOLT ev, (first one in WNY, btw) in February, I immediately went to the parts dept and requested some touch-up paint and clear coat. They said the car was too new and they’d have to special order it. I picked it up in 1 week. Contrast that with all your silly nonsense about the BOLT ev not being able to be sold in numbers because NO WAY They’d be able to find 20,000 batteries. Of course those batteries are much larger… Read more »

You reference to touch up paint and clear coat at your local dealer, is probably applicable to any GM/Chevy newly launched vehicles. Tesla is fraught with growing pains, and yes they are having many issues not related to minor surface scratches and blemishes.

Pushi may have over exaggerated the Bolt rollout a bit, as he has not followed with any real statements of fact, trying to substantiate his Chevy Bolt launch claims.

Just to clarify my purchase of the touchup paint – my BOLT ev was delivered with no fit or finish troubles.

The paint I bought merely because I was sure to need it.

To my surprise, I’m regularly ROLLED COAL on, (a pickup with smokestacks drives by and dumps a quart of oil on my car) and as far as I can tell deliberately run into by a redneck at an Amish market of all places – simply due to the tiny BOLT ev (escutcheon plate) on either side of the vehicle.

I didn’t get this much negativity from my Roadster, but people probably thought I was driving a Lotus Elise.

The irony of course is I am not telling other people what to drive. What they drive is their decision and I’m a ‘live and let live’ person regarding other people’s ICE cars.

I’m no threat to them.

“You’re dreaming. There was no problem with the roll out…”

I’m getting very tired of this repeated B.S. from you, so I started a discussion thread over on the InsideEVs forum, detailing all the relevant excerpts from several months of Jay Cole’s comments in the InsideEVs “Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard” articles. See link below.

Bill, if you have anything to say after reading that, then please do continue the conversation there. I don’t plan to waste any more time arguing the point here. And it’s okay, Bill; no one expects you to admit to being wrong, let alone thank anyone for the correction as I do when appropriate.

“Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.” — Mark Twain

http://www.insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?threads/bolt-ev-rollout-rough-start-or-smooth-sailing.161/

Let the record show that the items PP is citing as “problems with the rollout” are almost entirely lower sales than expected, which is hardly what we are talking about here. The idea of EV advocates bashing GM because they weren’t pessimistic enough about EV market demand is, shall we say, not exactly intellectually consistent.

True dat!

Let’s not get “Pushi-ed” off the rails on the semantics of the limited lack luster Chevy Bolt launch, and its early incidental roll out hiccups.
That was soooo,,,, yesterday.

Mark Twain:

“Never argue with Stupid people, they will only you take you down to their level.”

You say you are getting tired? How about leaving Mommy’s Basement then?

Staying down there all the time being a GREAT keyboard warrior can’t be good for your health. Maybe you’re unconcerned about that.

In this case you ‘Getting Tired’ is a good thing.

Analysts need to put their big boy pants on and stop being such drama queens about TSLA.

At this point if they haven’t figured out how to play the delays to make money, they should get out of the business.

Meanwhile Tesla is going to just keep massively growing their business at a rate faster than any other car maker. Regardless of delays.

“Meanwhile Tesla is going to just keep massively growing their business at a rate faster than any other car maker. Regardless of delays.”

That’s pretty much a given, since Tesla’s current production rates wouldn’t even show up as a blip on the radar of the “big boy” manufacturers. That’s not really saying anything other than the fact Tesla is still a baby in diapers in the automotive field.

Yup, keep underestimating them. I’m sure everything will be fine.

“German automakers who once laughed off Elon Musk are now starting to worry”

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-0419-tesla-germany-20160419-story.html

It’s older than GM. They went bankrupt a few years back, lest we forget.

Nope, many won’t be forgetting that little tidbit.

Tesla’s current production rates wouldn’t even show up as a blip on the radar of the “big boy” manufacturers.

ROTFLMAO!!
😆 😆 😆

You really are on a Big Lie roll today, aren’t you Mr. Tesla Hater?

I’m sure it will come as a surprise to BMW and other auto makers in the luxury sedan market segment that Tesla’s growing sales aren’t biting into theirs.

😀 😀 😀

What a loser!

Compare global sales of GM and Tesla so far this year and tell me again how Tesla’s sales are anything but insignificant.

Trying to engage in a reasonable conversation is rather like banging your head against the wall, with that guy….

TMC has issues that make the ‘self-appointeds’ here cringe….. You might find some of them interesting.

But then TMC is mostly a mature group who have plunked down hard-earned cash for a Tesla, and are relating their experiences.

No Kindergarten antics there for the most part.

Your going to play to the “reasonable explanation” crowd, with your response to Bro1999?

The speak and spell crowd is having some tutorials, they might be appropriate as a kindergarten refresher course, for those seeking discourse with Bro 1999 and his Tesla Trouncers.

“Reasonable conversation”, oops, my bad.

I’m just saying that as a very early memeber of Tesla Motor Club (joined in 2011), they send me a weekly email synopsis of what people are talking about in the past week.

I rarely post there, since I’m no longer a Tesla owner, unless I feel there is something I can contribute to the conversation – which is rarely the case – but I do read alot there since it is, as it has always been, Tesla owners discussing real issues and of course real frustrations with their cars and asking others for help and advice.

I’m now getting a weekly e-mail highlighting the “hot topics” on the Tesla Motors Club forum, too. As you say Bill, there’s a lot of interesting reading there from people who are far more knowledgeable than most of us Usual Suspects posting comments here.

Interesting reading in comments written by people who, like me, are capable of writing relevant, coherent, fact-based arguments… which is three things usually lacking in posts by a die-hard conspiracy theorist such as yourself.

Pushy, not only are the biggest troll on InsideEVs, but you’re also full of yourself. Your comments are usually garbage. You and your ilk make the comments section of this site unreadable with your incessant, toxic drivel.

Bill has owned multiple EVs from various nameplates including Tesla, while you don’t own or drive an EV. You’re just here to troll.

Bill, posting as Anonymous doesn’t help your case.

No, once owning a decade old technology that was actually built on a roller from Lotus gives you absolutely ZERO insight into what Tesla is doing a decade later with the Model 3. You even say you haven’t even driven a Model S or X.

You might as well be saying that you once owned a Yamaha Piano, so you are an expert on the all new 2018 Yamaha XSR700 motorcycle.

Nix, you’ll always know a response from me since I always call you the SUPERDOPE. SO you’ll know its from me.

Besides Jay Cole or the new owner can tell you who the Anonymous guy is – not that I disagree at all with his thoughtful assessment.

I’ve repeatedly stated many times I’ve test driven an “S” 3 times. It drives nice, but I’m glad, knowing what I do about the car in more detail than I did when I test drove it, that I never purchased one.

Others are very glad they purchased their “S”. More power to them.

“Besides Jay Cole or the new owner can tell you who the Anonymous guy is – not that I disagree at all with his thoughtful assessment.”

Still just little old me running the show, it is a true partnership (with Motorsport Network) where we get access to some wider resources … but it is our choice on how to utilize them or not, and they get the same from us.

So, I think for anyone who has been around long term, they should note ‘nada’ for any fundamental ‘changes’ on how we do things since we teamed-up in February. There is no ‘hidden hand’ as it were, there isn’t even any new faces at all on the team from Motorsport – they are a pretty great partner. They know, that we know how to do what we do. And we know that they know how to do what they do. They just bring the resources to let us do what we do…but better.

…and I keep a fairly close eye on ID abuse, (=

Oh!!! Three test drives in one out of 3 of Tesla’s current lines of cars!!

OOOOOOOOOHHHH!!!

Why, then of course you are the absolute expert about everything Tesla, and your vast and wide experience means so much!!!

Everybody will now bow to you, you big man!

LOL!!!!

_________________________

What a Plank

It’s their job to be critical. Literally we have analysts to speak of the problems with companies that the companies would naturally not highlight themselves.

If you want to just hear nice things about the company then restrict yourself to TSLA spokespersons.

Wrong. Their job is to figure out how to make money trading TSLA. Like I said, if they haven’t figured out how to make money playing the delays, they aren’t doing their jobs right and should put their big boy pants on and stop the crying.

Analysts and traders are different jobs.

Not really. Goldman is one entity. It’s analysts publicly go negative on TSLA. It’s traders likely have short positions.

The Police put it best: “You pay your analyst to reach the same conclusions”.

I think this “Canary In A Coal Mine” is still one thriving bird. Cash problems, if worsened, will find an angel.

Nothing you said contradicts what I said.

I said they are different jobs. You indicate a company employs both groups.

Analysts are in the research arm. They are there to help people understand what they are buying, including in giving negative information that of course the company wouldn’t push itself.

Traders trade. In your case you would be talking about prop (proprietary) trading since you indicate any losses or gains from the trading would go to the company and not its clients.

A company may employ people which do each of these jobs. But nonetheless they are separate jobs. And literally it is the job of the analysts to be critical, because you can be sure the companies themselves won’t be.

Exactly what I’ve been saying all along. Your reality distortion field generator doesn’t work anymore, Elon.

Your FUD generator has no power. Tesla will still keep making cars no matter what you say or do. That just chaps the heck out of you, doesn’t it?

I’m glad investors (and even customers/reservation holders) are finally able to shake off the fog that is Elon’s distorted reality field. That 20% stock price decline must really be chapping the heck out of you, huh?

Being the loyal lemming that you are, I’m sure you just bought more TSLA stock thinking what a great value it is a ~$300. I’m sure you’d be reservation holder #1 if Elon came out with a Tesla Cash Incineration Machine. Lol

Wait, nevermind, that cash incineration machine is already out: the Model 3.

TSLA is still UP about $100 dollar from last December. You think the current price is bad???

TSLA is a volatile stock. Did you just figure that out? Volatile stock is volatile. That’s the definition. I’m looking forward to you saying Tesla is an awesome company the next time Tesla’s volatile stock cycles yet again.

Tesla Model 3 is projected to generate 120 Billion dollars in the first 5 years of the Model 3’s planned 10 year product lifecycle. The burn is what the burn is. A necessary step in the process of launching a major product line.

You aren’t silly enough to think they could launch a product with projected sales in the hundreds of billions of dollars without any cash burn, did you?

It’s up today, and it’s still high-priced in my opinion, but it’s up about 50% this year as opposed to 15% for the market.
Also if you take into account it’s ipo of $17 it’s been a rocket.

bro1999 said:

“Your reality distortion field generator doesn’t work anymore, Elon.”

Yeah, that’s why Tesla’s stock price experienced a major correction, and is no longer inflated.

…wait, what? It dropped only 5% and then apparently stabilized? …well, “stabilized” as much as this highly volatile stock ever is, anyway.

Well then, Mr. FUDster, I guess the groupthink (or “reality distortion field”) which Tesla stock pumpers are projecting is still working rather well, even if the gain was turned down just slightly a couple of days ago.

Meanwhile, the reality distortion field of your Tesla hater goggles, Bro1999, seems to be working as strongly as ever.

I agree it’s an issue that they always miss their delivery targets by months/years, and that the initial products they deliver have build quality & programming issues.

But, no one should be surprised. They’ve been doing this since the roadster. So, anyone, including the analysts, who believed the M3 delivery dog-and-pony show was real, or that they’d deliver on time, was a fool.

Fool me once…

That’s what I wrote 2-3 years ago already in my Tesla articles. Exact same two words in summaries:

Overpromising, underdelivering.

Looks like (former) TSLA bull analysts finally come to the same conclusion in late 2017?

What took them so long to unravel Musk’s circus tricks?

And since then Tesla has still managed record growth rates unpredicted by you, and hit record delivery numbers that you also failed to predict. You keep missing the forest for the trees. You r focus on the negative have blinded you to the upsides. Your repeated predictions of Tesla running out of money have all failed. Tesla keeps on growing like a rocket no matter how much you focus on the negatives. Just like the Model 3. While you are blinded by the fact that Tesla won’t hit 5K units/week until 2018 instead of the end of 2017, you are remaining completely blind to MASSIVE GROWTH that 20K more cars a month will represent!! Regardless of the delay. Just 1 month of 20K deliveries in 2018 would represent Tesla growing their number of deliveries by around 20% year over year. Half a year of deliveries at that level is a 100% growth rate. Both of those are well below targets, and yet represent massive growth not seen anywhere in the automotive industry. In fact, ICE car sales have plateaued and are dropping while Tesla is growing. Yawn, you predicted delays. And meanwhile were blind to all the growth that happened… Read more »

..and the competition was exceedingly stiff.
A bunch of them in fact.

tftf said:

“That’s what I wrote 2-3 years ago already in my Tesla articles.”

Wow, do you want a gold star? Even the proverbial broken clock is right twice a day.
You’ve managed to be right, what? Once or twice in 2-3 years?

Not exactly a great track record there, Mr. Serial Tesla FUDster.

In another quarter or three, Tesla will be back on track and into the “S” curve of accelerating Model 3 production. And you, tftf, will still be a big time loser with all the money you’ve lost betting on Tesla to fail.

Go Tesla!

@Cowen and Co analyst said: “Tesla needs to slow down and more narrowly focus its vision and come up for a breath of fresh air. Elon Musk needs to stop over promising and under delivering.”
————–

This analyst believes Tesla’s CEO needs to be more like a traditional car maker CEO… that’s not going to happen… and that’s a very good thing for Tesla, Tesla car owners, & TSLA shareholders.

Elon needs to sell more hats. Deep in the midst of production hell where he’s camping on the roof of the Gigafactory, he found time to sell thousands of hats. That is the key to success.

Even Elon’s growth in hat sales crushes ICE car merchandise growth rates!!!

Don’t worry, it is the 1960’s, and nobody is going to buy cars from the Japanese…..

Well said, sir. Yes, Tesla needs to do better at planning and oversight. But for Tesla to abandon its policy of aggressive growth… that would be the real disaster for Tesla!

What we’re seeing, with Tesla’s problems, is growing pains. The major stumble in TM3 production was a bigger growing pain than most. But it is growing pains, and not — as the Tesla haters and FUDsters posting here and elsewhere would like us to believe — a sign that Tesla’s business is in trouble.

Go Tesla!

Obviously Tesla needs to get better at its execution going forward but it is easy to see, we are (unfortunately) dealing with a gaggle of trolls here who desperately (and pathetically I might add) want to see Tesla fail. Now why would anyone who professes to be an EV supporter want that? That brings up a whole list of possibilities and NONE of them are pretty: Shills for the fossil fool industry who despite their lamentations here are NOT EV supporters in any way, shape, or form. Shorters or other vultures/gamblers who care nothing about a better future because all lining their pockets is all that matters. Rivals of Tesla in the auto OEM world or investors therein. Other industries threatened by Tesla ventures like the Auto Stealerships, auto repair places that live off of ICE related profits. Other industries/monopolies threatened by Tesla like electrical utilities. And of course as has been demonstrated here more then once, there are mentally ill people just opposed to progress. People so wed to past ways that they feel personally threatened and insecure by what Elon Musk has accomplished and I’m sure there are those who are plain jealous too. I think that some… Read more »

It certainly isn’t surprising when some of the usual suspects pop up making pro-fuel cell and pro-ICE dealership comments….

Wall Street only cares about making profits off of stocks. They don’t care one bit about the company, products, customers or it’s mission.

Tesla should definitely work harder to deliver their products on time. However, when they received the 400K pre-orders, they attempted a very ambitious new schedule in order to get those Model 3s delivered to their customers. Maybe it was foolish or naïve, but at least they made a heroic attempt. Most car companies are still promising competitive EVs in 2020.

That’s why Tesla’s current and future customers love the company and their products so much.

“Tesla Needs To Stop Over Promising & Under Delivering”

Speaking as a long-time Tesla fan, I entirely agree. However, Tesla’s highly volatile stock price dropping a mere 5% and then apparently plateauing, is far too little to bring that message home to Tesla. Unfortunately, it seems that continuing to hype and under-deliver is working out quite well for Tesla.

I look forward to the day when Tesla stops over-promising and under-delivering. However, I seriously question that’s going to happen so long as Elon Musk is in charge. Elon said a few years back that he will move on once the Model 3 production is well along. I hope he does so, and I look forward to seeing how Tesla performs under new management; hopefully management that will try to steer this corporate “ship” on a much steadier course, and on a much more even keel. And when I say “Tesla”, I mean Tesla Inc., the company; not TSLA, the stock. Unlike all too many industry watchers, I don’t confuse the two.

I hope that they will completely ignore just about everyone and everything, aside from valued customers, and just iron out the bugs and produce cars like crazy, which should happen eventually.

Many commentators in the auto industry are grabbing shovels ready to bury them, Tesla, but I think they have it backwards, sort of like Khrushchev in his speech to the U.N. A bit of hyperbole. Take off a shoe, bang it on the table.

Even if Tesla fails, someone out there will buy the carcass. Tesla name is still worth something, despite Elon tarnishing it one broken promise after another.

You are so desperate for Tesla to fail that I wonder if you actually experience physical pain every day, as it’s clear that Tesla is a very healthy and rapidly growing company, despite the stumble with early Model 3 production.

I hope you haven’t actually managed to convince yourself that your own lies about Tesla are true. If so, then that would be even sadder than it appears.

Go Tesla!

What lies? That Elon has broken many promises over the years? You actually dumb enough to want to debate that?

Yeah, like about $50 Billion. I guess that is something. Worth more than either Ford or GM.
Brilliant analysis as usual.

If Tesla fails it won’t even be worth $5 billion. With a debt of $10 billion and no proprietary technology to speak of it’s unlikely anyone would touch it with a 10 foot pole.

Oh! The Drama!!

PS — GM actually did go bankrupt. They and Chrysler had to be bailed out. Ford had to take over $5.9 Billion in direct loans, plus an additional bailout for Ford Credit borrowed $15.9 billion dollars. Name any car company with a factory in the United States, and their suppliers all got bailouts saving their bacon. Or did you forget that?

What did Tesla do? They paid back their loan over a decade early. Ford is still paying theirs. And GM….

So? GM actually had something to show for it. Tesla has nothing any other car company would want and it’s not big enough for the government to care about (especially with the Trump admin) like GM.

So funny that you think GM going through bankruptcy is some great show of “value”. GM had value after bankruptcy ONLY because so many investors were wiped out. If they were allowed to fail, the “value” you brag about would have been measured in pennies on the dollar in liquidation. There were no angel investors in the private sector who would carry GM through restructuring. Only you would think that pennies on the dollar in liquidation == “value”. New GM’s post BK value only existed on the shoulders of so many who lost massive amounts of money. GM had $82.0 billion in assets and $172.8 billion in liabilities when they went under. Their “value” was negative 90 Billion dollars. They got $80 Billion dollars in bailouts fro the US, and $9 Billion in bailouts from Canada just to cover the bleeding while they wiped out all shareholder value, and most of bond holder value and restructured. _____________________- Meanwhile, instead of being in the negative in debt more than double their assets like GM, Tesla currently has roughly a quarter more assets than they have liabilities. That actually represents positive value, not negative value like bankrupt GM. I’m sorry your short… Read more »

If I had a nickle for every internet whiner who has incorrectly predicted Tesla’s death over the last decade, I’d have enough money to buy a Model S P100DL.

Keep up the hysteria, Tesla will just keep growing at record rates unheard of in the automotive world.

The only thing growing is their debt.

Actually, their assets are growing faster than their debts. I’ve posted the cold hard numbers proving such multiple times. They are all available on the NASDAQ listing for TSLA.

If you are going to lie, at least make one up that isn’t so easily proven wrong. Do you need me to post the facts you refuse to look up for yourself yet again? Or do you want to limit the embarrassment?

Someone out there said:

“The only thing growing is their debt.”

Reality check:

Tesla’s annual automobile sales totals:
2012: 2650
2013: 22,300
2014: 31,655 (+41.95%)
2015: 50,580 (+59.8%)
2016: 76,230 (+50.7%)

Sure looks like a lot of growth to me! Perhaps you’re mathematically challenged? 😆

Come on, Tesla delivered the first family sedan long distance usable electric car in 2012, and has produced more than 150.000 cars since. I have no doubt this will come around, and the model 3 will be a great success, Tesla is just under extreme surveillance and slightest things are blown up out of proportions.
3 month extra is just a temporary setback!
Most other car manufacturer has been talking about long distance electric cars and shown of concept for years and years and nothing happened, these guys are doing something!

The Tesla haters and FUDsters so rarely have anything to get excited about. After years and years of repeatedly claiming or insinuating Tesla is going to fail, they’re falling all over themselves with the delusion that their dreams are about to come true!

Those betting against Tesla are rather short-sighted. 😉

> Most other car manufacturer has been talking about long distance electric cars and shown of concept for years and years and nothing happened, these guys are doing something!

The other companies are delivering that sweet nectar of gods: Profit and dividends.

From investor point of view, anything else is worthless. That is for non-profits and charities are for. Either you grow a lot (=promise of future profit) or you deliver profit. Tesla grew only a little in the past 5 quarters (24500, 22200, 25000, 22000, 26150). They need Model 3 and fast.

Tesla has always grown in spurts, just to be followed by drops in following quarters. Only to continue to grow at fantastic rates.

For example, if you look at the 3 quarters before the ones you listed, the numbers looked like this:

Q42015 — 17,400
Q12016 — 14,820
Q22016 — 14,370

Boy, that looks bad doesn’t it? Sales dropping by thousands!! Run for the hills, they will close their doors before the end of the year is what the trolls said. Then sales jumped into the mid-20’s.

This is how Tesla grows. They have had multiple quarter long dips and flat growth again and again, yet still have phenomenal year over year growth. (Those numbers have been posted repeatedly, no need to repost).

No need for worry.

These analysts have a wealth of automotive industry experience, both on the technical side and the financial side. They know the characteristics of a healthy auto manufacturer and their clients rely on that advice. This conference call was very flakey. Elon, JB, et al were scrambling to explain things, both technical and financial. The analysts want to believe that TSLA can be a global player, but are getting nervous and tolerate rookie mistakes only so long. And they have power. If they all give “sell” recommendations, their clients likely will take that advice and TSLA’s stock value will take an even bigger hit than it did two days ago. And that could snowball into loan problems, cancelled reservations, stockholder rebellions, etc.

If Model 3 production, sales, deliveries and cash flow are not really, really turned around by the end of Q1 2018, there will be blood.

Where are all the great internet researchers? I wish I was one of them! I clearly remember Tesla did a reveal of the Model 3, with a reservation of $1,000 of which they expected so many reservations. The actual reservations quickly surpassed their expectations and sky rocketed to 300,000+. At which time Tesla pulled their production promise forward by 2yrs! So get real people, this car wasn’t supposed to be available until 2019, but because of the unprecedented reservation demand, they actually committed to deliver it 2yrs earlier. So fact if they can get general deliveries going anytime soon then they are ahead of their original 2019 release date, but behind their very optimistic, accelerated release date of mid 2017. The car that they revealed is essentially the car they are delivering. Anyone putting down a reservation based on features not advertised (HUD anyone?) or tax credits that can disappear at the whim of government, will surely be disappointed in life. If you put down your reservation with the expectation of at least 210mi range for $35k and a very minimalist interior as revealed, and knowing there will undoubtedly be delays, then you will be very happy with your purchase.… Read more »

These targets are extremely important to get all partners/suppliers on the same page – the risk remains with Tesla.
Elon has delivered a car in 2012 that is still ahead of its time in 2017. This is a product of a visionary with the stock market being a necessary evil to help accomplish what is claimed to be impossible. Why people still criticize these ambitions is beyond me. The target has been stated: A better future (saving the world?) not maximizing some profits. In the big scheme of things Elon is on track not only to mass produce one of the sexiest cars around but also pushing others to get on the bandwagon on producing electric cars. 2018 will be a turning point and in large, thanks to Elon and his team. This delay will be a footnote in history and if you can’t handle it, get out of Tesla stocks or better short the stock if you did not loose enough already!

It’s my opinion that Tesla Model 3 production numbers will not reach 5000 per week till 2020. That’s the bad news. The good news is a lot of people will ask for a refund of their deposit and I will move up in line.