Analyst: Tesla Model 3 Expected To Match Or Surpass BMW M & Mercedes-Benz AMG Models

2 years ago by Eric Loveday 36

Crowd Outside Of Tesla Dealership In Atlanta - Image Credit InsideEVs/ Michael Beinenson

Crowd Outside Of Tesla Dealership In Atlanta Waiting To Order The Model 3 – Image Credit InsideEVs/ Michael Beinenson

BMW M3

BMW M3

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas more often than not is right in his predictions linked to Tesla.

Jonas recently chimed in on the Model 3 saying that he believes 2018 is when production will be in full swing and that Tesla’s total sales will be approximately 249,000 units per year in 2020.

However, it was Jonas’ statement on Model 3 performance that caught our attention. according to Jonas, the Model 3, despite its relatively low price, will still deliver on all fronts. Quoting Jonas:

“We expect the Model 3 to live up to the Tesla brand image as a ‘no compromise’ high-performance car, with a high degree of driving pleasure.”

Jonas went on to say that the Model 3 (in high-spec trim) will either match or beat the BMW M and Mercedes-Benz AMG models in performance categories such as acceleration and handling. Quoting Jonas:

“We would be very surprised if the performance specs, such as acceleration and handling, are not on par with or superior to high-performance ‘M’ or ‘AMG’ versions of the equivalent German premium sedans.”

The M and AMG models are highly regarded, so if the Model 3 can indeed match those offerings at a relatively affordable price than it surely will be an all-around winner.

Source: USA Today

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36 responses to "Analyst: Tesla Model 3 Expected To Match Or Surpass BMW M & Mercedes-Benz AMG Models"

  1. John says:

    Other than acceleration 0-62 it’s not going to happen. Model 3 would have to be faster and handle better than Model S.

    1. Jonas says:

      Acceleration is what distinguishes the price tag for the M series and Tesla can well delivered that. we dont know yet if there is new battery breakthrough. I was reading about a sillicon usage.

  2. theflew says:

    My biggest issue with the Model 3 is people associating it with a BMW M3 or AMG, but with a $35k price – it’s not going to happen. You’re also not going to get a sub 4 second 0-60 time with 50-60kWh battery pack unless Tesla is using some high C batteries that wont last as long. Also people are talking about 80-100kWh options yet don’t realize that would be huge battery pack in a car that’s 20% smaller than the Model S. The Model S has such a long wheelbase to house that large battery pack.

    So could the Model 3 rival a M3 or AMG – sure, but at a price point a lot more than $35k. Tesla said the Model 3 was the version for the common person, but at a guaranteed $40k-$60k it will be a luxury item. This is no Corolla, Camery, Impala, Malibu, Civic that’s going to really move the meter in afforable EV’s.

    1. Dan says:

      People forget that a car that is 20% smaller in both dimensions actually has 36% (0.8 X 0.8 = 0.64) less area to work with. Given that wheels, motors and such don’t shrink by 20%, the hit is almost entirely in battery pack space.

      1. Priusmaniac says:

        Actually it has never been vclear what the 20% smaller mean. It can’t be lenght since that would bring it to 4 m which is way smaller than a 3 series or an Audi A4, so perhaps it is overall volume or weight which would be more likely.
        We will know more soon.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          I’m guessing that “20% smaller” means 20% less volume. Note the Model S is a very wide car; likely the Model ≡ will be somewhat narrower.

          It will be interesting to see if they can make the Model ≡’s battery pack with a single layer of vertically oriented cells, like the Model S. Maybe they’ll have to lay the larger Gigafactory cells flat and stack them two high, to get them into a much smaller area? Or will the improvement in energy density allow them to keep a single layer of vertically oriented (but taller) cells?

  3. Texas FFE says:

    The BMW M3 starts at about $70,000, that is twice what we have been told the Tesla Model 3 will sell for. If the Model 3 has performance like the M3 then it could very well have a price like the M3. This is not the Tesla Model 3 I am expecting.

    1. Benjamin says:

      No surprises here. Of course Tesla will offer an ultra-high performance version of the Model 3 and of course it will be priced vastly higher than the base model.

      Model S has a base price of $75k. But go for the _P90D_ and you’re looking at $130k.

      A Model 3 _P75D_ which will compete with the BMW M3 will indeed probably cost $70k or more. Shrug. It will generate excitement and profits for the brand the same way the high end Model Ss do.

    2. Chris O says:

      I don’t think higher performance adds the sort of cost to EVs it does to ICE vehicles so it would be easy for Tesla to undercut M and AMG models in price and still get the same sort of margins the Germans do.

      1. Terawatt says:

        That’s true. But high-current power electronics does cost more and I think adds less value in a more mainstream car. I expect around six seconds to 62 for the base model.

        Those who claim this requires a bigger battery are talking bollocks. Nissans 24kWh battery is rated for 200 kW peak power. So the battery is not an issue in terms of power (unless Teslas cells are far inferior in this respect, something that’d be news to me).

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Well, Tesla can’t ignore physics. So yes, the Model S60 is a bit slower from 0-60 than the Model S85. According to a post I found on the official Tesla Motors forum:

          “Per the Tesla website, the S85 is a hair faster than the S60 (5.9 vs 5.4 sec for 0-60 and 14.2 vs 13.7 sec for the 1/4 mi)…”

          Of course, whatever the battery pack size is, the EV’s inverter has to be able to supply power to the motor. It would be entirely possible to build an EV whose battery pack could deliver more power than the inverter can handle. I have no doubt we’ll see such BEVs in the future, as the average range goes up to ~300 miles.

  4. Alaa says:

    He is missing the point. The model 3 is electric and that is it. No more gas. If it is as fast as the MB or BMW is really not that important. The other strong selling point is the price after the tax refund is irresistible. Add to that the free supercharging then it is a very attractive if not the most attractive in HISTORY.

    1. Dan says:

      I doubt if anybody is budgeting for the rebates. They will likely be long gone by the time the 3 hits production.

      1. In the USA, quite likely before base Model 3’s get delivered, but The Model 3 will be Global, and Germany is just getting ready to run a rebate program, and Ontario, Canada just upped their rebates fo cars up to $70,000, above that it got trimmed down to $3,000!

        Lots of things could happen, like our new PM putting out a National program in Canada, US extending credits for EV’s in the Model 3 / Bolt range, etc!

        Even some large businesses might offer employee bonuses or rebates for employees buying EV’s, as happened a decade ago with Hybrids! Workplace charging being developed can also reduce pressure on excess Supercharger use by locals!

      2. Terawatt says:

        Please stop repeating this lie that the rebates will be gone. What is true is just that the rebate may be REDUCED. There’s no limit on the number of cars that can be theoretically delivered prior to the rebate disappearing.

        First: the 200,000 car limit applies to the US. Tesla has used about 50,000 of those. If Model 3 enters production in late 2017, say they’ve used 110,000. If on average existing Tesla owners buy half a car (I think less is likely, but whatever) there will still be AT LEAST 60,000 cars left of the original 200,000.

        But that’s the least important part. Quoting Wikipedia:

        “The new qualified plug-in electric vehicle credit phases out for a PEV manufacturer over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles from that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States.”

        This means that the entire quarter in which the 200,000 limit is reached counts, AND THE FOLLOWING QUARTER, even if the actual number is 300,000.

        And after that there’s another two quarters with 50% of the incentives.

        Hence, the credits end a full year AFTER the 200,000 limit is breached, and then it’s a pure TIME limit with no limitations on the number.

        There is in short EVERY reason to think that anyone who reserves anytime this year stands an extremely good chance of receiving some tax benefit, and a decent chance to get the full benefit.

        Help spread the true version of this, please!

        2)

        1. TomArt says:

          Exactly! +200,000

    2. super390 says:

      If you’re going to sell in these numbers, you have to be able to sell many versions to many kinds of driver. Both the anti-EV range trolls and the Green purists refuse to understand this. This is about talking people out of BMWs, but also Camrys and Accords and Mustangs and Camaros and WRXs and EVOs. Those last two cost much less than M3s and AMGs, and they’re built around 4-wheel-drive.

  5. pk says:

    2108? Seems legit.

    1. mr. M says:

      lol, nice catch. I still think tesla can deliver it a little earlier. 😀

      1. Alaa says:

        I agree and almost sure of it. Here is why I am almost sure. It was the tweet that Elon tweeted that made me think that tonight is just part 1. He is not a stupid man to tweet us today to tell us that there is another show in TWO years time.

      2. Terawatt says:

        Based on what, exactly? Surely it cannot be wishful thinking – so perhaps Teslas awesome delivery track record?

        ?

  6. ffbj says:

    I think there will be a Ridiculous Speed option for 8k. Am I being silly?

    1. Rediculous. You. Are!
      This is not the ICE Car you are looking for!
      /Yoda
      /OB1KenObe

      1. ffbj says:

        The ev force is strong with this one.

    2. Terawatt says:

      I’m waiting out for Sufficient Mode.

  7. Kevin C. says:

    This show is only in earliest pre-game commercial break.

  8. Braben says:

    The Model 3 may match the 0-60 times in a straight line, but there is much more to performance and handling than that. I doubt that Tesla’s chassis, steering etc. will be anywhere near as refined as MB’s or BMW’s. These companies refined and optimized their cars for decades. I also doubt that it will allow autobahn cruising at >180km/h for prolonged periods of time.

    1. super390 says:

      Inherent to EVs is a low center of gravity and greater designer control over weight distribution and center of polar momentum.

      And we don’t have autobahns in America. We have sprawl and traffic. Which is why BMW and Mercedes make their living here selling high profit margin bling to McMansion menopause men and soccer moms who will never max out any of their performance capabilities except maybe the acceleration.

      1. Benjamin says:

        Yep, as far as I’ve ever read, the P90D has handling on par with the top BMWs and AMGs in the high price range, don’t know why they couldn’t do it with the 3 series. It’s a huge advantage to have the weight balanced and low in the car.

      2. Benjamin says:

        Of course we can expect the Model 3 to get handily beaten in top speed and in sustained high performance on a track, as the P90 has been.

  9. pjwood1 says:

    Acceleration and skid pad numbers are all Elon Musk cares about, when it comes to boasting “performance”. “Car control” isn’t something for a human being, to this guy.

    1. Benjamin says:

      Wha? Every review I’ve read raves about the remarkable handling of the Model S as compared to other large sports sedans.

  10. Mark C says:

    Jonas went on to say that the Model 3 (in high-spec trim)

    Please note that he’s not saying the base car will do that. But for a mere $25k-30k more, you can get the all-wheel-drive rocket assisted, fastest thing {excludes other Tesla products, of course} on the planet…

    I can dream too, can’t I?

    1. Terawatt says:

      Apparently, you can. Even a nightmare is a dream tho.

      I reserved something earlier today. Now I can’t wait to learn what it is!

  11. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    This is absurd. Tesla will be pinching pennies to make a well-reviewed car for $35,000. They’ll spend those pennies on comfort, features, and styling… not on trying to match the Model S’s 0-60 time.

    Will the Model ≡ have a 0-60 time well below that for comparably priced gasmobile sedans or hatchbacks? Sure. But Tesla would be pretty stupid to try to make the base Model ≡ match the Model S’s 0-60 time. A more modest motor size, with more limited acceleration, will help them get more range per kWh, so they can use a smaller (and less expensive) battery pack in this car.

    Now, that’s not to say that there won’t be a “Performance” package for the Model ≡, with a bigger motor(s) and faster acceleration. But that won’t be a base model $35,000 Model ≡; it will cost substantially more.

  12. Anderlan says:

    At least a *few* other people in the shot besides me figured out the appropriate thing to be waving in this shot was 3 fingers for the Model 3.