Analysts And Skeptics: Why Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Won’t Be On Schedule


Tesla Model 3 at it debut, April 2016

Tesla Model 3 at its debut, April 2016

It is of the utmost importance that Tesla lives up to its promises and gets the Tesla Model 3 out on roadways by the middle of this year. While people also care whether or not the company reaches its extremely optimistic production goals of 500,000 vehicles a year by 2018, the Model 3’s appearance and presence will hold much more clout.

Tesla Model 3 in the "wild"

Tesla Model 3 in the “wild”

Many critics, analysts, and other skeptics are saying that Tesla’s Model 3 production goals will never happen on time. If they are true, most (if any) Model 3 buyers will be ineligible for the government tax credit, which will cause pricing concerns, and competitiveness issues with GM’s new Chevrolet Bolt EV.

Part of the group of doubters believe that Elon Musk is all about the game. So, regardless of what he says or Tweets, it’s more for publicity and infotainment value, than reality. K C Ma, finance professor at Stetson University explained:

“Elon Musk is the master of manufacturing suspense that keeps him and Tesla in the media spotlight.”

Yahoo mentions some past fails by the electric car startup and some evidence pointing to Model 3 production delays:

— The Tesla Roadster was supposed to debut in mid-2007, but it took until the first quarter of 2008.

— Two versions of the Model S were delayed for months due to supplier issues.

— The Tesla Model X SUV was notoriously late by more than two full years due to insanely long production delays.

Tesla Model 3 Site Shows New Name

On top of this, in October Tesla made it clear that new orders for the Model 3 won’t appear until at least mid-2018. However, this was to be expected as the company has 400,000 to fill first. If people wanted one that bad, and didn’t pre-order, that’s not Tesla’s fault. Actually, the company has gone so far as to offer more competitively-priced Model S and X vehicles and to “unsell” the Model 3, to free up some orders and make the goals more realistic.

Efraim Levy, equity analyst for CFRA, shared his thoughts:

“They have stretched targets that they tend to miss. So if they target the second part of 2017 they will miss at least the early part of that, if production doesn’t fall into 2018.”

“I don’t think they’ll meet the goal of 500,000 vehicles in 2018, either.”

“The Bolt is out there already and they get government subsidies, making the Model 3 less competitive … there will be a very limited number of Model 3 owners that will get the credits. They almost all won’t.”

A Carnegie Mellon professor involved with electrical engineering,Β Raj Rajkumar, believes that Tesla is getting in over its head with the self-driving aspect. But, Musk has vowed not to let the “whizbang” get in the way, like it did in regards to the Model X. Raj shared:

“With automation (autonomous driving) you add a lot more cameras, you add radars and such, so it does increase the complexity of the supply chain.”

“I personally do not expect the Model 3 to be released this year.”

Others point to the further complications and distractions caused by Tesla’s SolarCity merger, the new U.S. administration, supplier issues, actual average prices being substantially higher than expected, etc. If Tesla pulls it off – and there’s many supporters that still think it’s possible – it will be a feat that should go down in the history books.

Source: Yahoo

Categories: Tesla

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195 Comments on "Analysts And Skeptics: Why Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Won’t Be On Schedule"

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Get Shorty !

Exactly. Being late is already baked into the current stock price. If they’re on time WATCH OUT.

Being late means a couple of billion dollars in losses by 2018. I also doubt, Model 3 will sell in the volumse that is claimed. Tesla will keep selling a few tens of thousand a year, and making excuses for the low volumes. Mr. Musk is a master of excuses, and his gullible followers are too stupid to question them. SEC and auditors must audit the model 3 reservation number. Tesla’s entire valuation is based on that unproven number.

This is a great time to start shorting this stock, in increments. If you are long, bailt out slowly. Once the dismal earnings report comes out in 2 weeks, there can be a huge fall.

Gosh, who could have seen these synopsis from little old you?

I’m perfectly happy to keep watching you squeal (while taking it in the “shorts”). Actually, not many things give me as much pleasure as knowing that there are lots of people like you betting on the wrong horse.

It makes the earnings so much more enjoyable to spend on fun things. Heck, you might even be paying for my kid’s college education.

Thank you!!!

Squeal little piggy, squeal.

Haha! Nice to see the fat pigs taken to the slaughter house by Mr. Musk. Where were you hiding 2 months ago? Were you guys too ashamed to show your faces? Most short sellers are sitting on mountains of profits from past selling, and will profit again by shorting more of this bubble. Shall I say financial scam in plain sight?

Scream till the nigthmare hits on Feb 22. Watch out for traders running for the doors crush you in the stampede.

EM can make huge circus with Model 3 reveal part 3 and “explain” all the 4Q losses by investments for imminent Model 3 production, greatest car in the world. Don’t underestimate his exceptional ability to pump and sell shares.

Well, well.

We have Dr. FudSpreader, zzzzz, tftf, DJ and other Tesla shorters and shills for Big Oil coming out of the woodwork to spread their delusional Chicken-Little FUD.

Of course, many of these posters are posting under multiple usernames in a desperate and lame attempt to influence the market which makes them delusional because that isn’t going to happen.

My take is as long as Tesla starts production in 2017 then they and their stock price will be doing fine and the whole world will benefit.

Why is it that when people say truthful things about Tesla that doesn’t paint them in the rosiest of light the stupid comes out of Tesla fanboys?

Is their head really that far up Elon’s backside?

You are actually defending blatant, obvious attempts to manipulate stock price from serial FUDsters “Dr ValueSeeker” and zzzzzzzzz?

Are you really that clueless, or are you actually a “short” investor yourself?

Look, I understand that “short” investors play an important role in the stock market. What I don’t accept, what I will never accept, is the idea that this makes it in any way acceptable for them to repeatedly post B.S. which they know perfectly well hasn’t the slightest shred of truth to it.

If they were to post their honest opinions, no matter how negative, then they would have just as much right to post here as anyone else. But they aren’t, and they don’t.

Yeah, it’s all smoke and mirrors dude! Gonna be a shorters feast! I’m sorry, did you want humble pie with that crow?!


It is widely known that before Q3 even ended that Elon said it would be the last profitable quarter until after the Model 3 reaches volume production, due to Model 3 ramp-up costs.

We all knew that 6 months ago. Where have you been?

If you are so far behind in the news that you don’t understand that Model 3 costs are going to hold down Tesla’s bottom line until Tesla can realize profits from their investment, you really should stay away from investing in TSLA.

The link has been posted repeatedly. (ibid)

Yea, we know, desperate times demands desperate actions…like yours! Instead of doing something useful for the humanity, you are trying hard to do something useful only for your valet. Very understandable primitive attitude.
Being gentle, I should say that this is one more comment to my collection of haters, naysayers, short-sellers all of fame of hilarious fake news, lies and bashing info about Tesla. Since 2008, I laugh a lot thanks to you guys.

Don’t spew hatred against Big oil anymore! Mr. Musk is now buddy-buddy with them. Remember Mr. Musk’s tweet on Rex Tillerson, the oil man?

When was the last time you saw Mr. Musk tweet about global warming? That’s right. It was Nov 19th, before he joined the other side to feed from govt teats.

Valueless Troll — How stupid do you have to be to not even bother checking Elons twitter feed before posting this trash?

He posted about climate change hours before you posted your BS. And again tweeted about climate on Feb 4th. And Jan 25th, and 24th, then 24th again.

When are you going to stop your Benny Hill imitation slapstick comedy? Tired yet of stepping on that rake and having the handle hit you in the face?

ThaNx, Nix, for keeping it real. Vauleless is obviously working from alternative facts.

DVS and DJ: If you wonder why people talk this way, its instructive to look at the BP article from a day or two ago, and look at the way a mature engineer (ClarksonCOte) responded to some of my controversial points and the way the rest responded. I’m not talking about agreement or disagreement, I’m talking about the maturity level of the discourse.

The 11 year olds (5th and 6th graders, optimisticly) can be compared and Contrasted with Mr. Cote. This is what you are dealing with.

You probably yearn for someone to intelligently discuss or intelligently disagree with your position, instead of the constant name-calling.

Now, Onto the Model 3 – what little I know of it so far – is it appears to be a design that will ultimately be very profitable for Tesla, provided they can produce it in Bulk.

those betting against Tesla were “down 31% or $2.27 billion in just over three months”

How much of that are your losses?

The serial anti-Tesla FUDster known as “Dr ValueSeeker” posted:

“This is a great time to start shorting this stock…”

Well, since the stock is again getting very close to its 12-month high, then yes, it looks like a good time to make a “short” investment.

But the problem, my dear “Doctor”, is that you keep coming to this website and posting FUD at any old time, regardless of what the stock is actually doing. That means you’re not doing the smart thing in making a short investment only when the stock price is high, and then selling it when it’s low. No, you are stupidly hanging onto a short investment on a long-term basis, refusing to sell when the stock temporarily bottoms out!

That being the case, anyone who would actually pay attention to your stock advice has to be just as stupid as you are.

The FUDster known as “Dr ValueSeeker”: What a loser! …in more ways than one.

It looks like the TSLA short sellers are “taking it in the shorts” again.

Stock is way up today.

We should get a better idea in as little as 6 weeks since unveil 3 should happen by the end of March, if the unveil does not happen, we can basically slip the ship date a day for a day. If we are lucky a date will be given on Feb 22

This event in March or April means nothing.

They will probably show off the final interior and maybe publish some final specs etc.

It’s not hard to show off a few prototypes at the event.

The hard part is testing, supply chain and ramp up with high QA.

The 100-200K prediction for H2 2017 (straight from Elon Musk) is pure utopia.

Ask any large car maker – one major Model3 recall and Tesla would have existential problems.

So, I can’t remember… where you on the bandwagon last year that though Tesla was only going to show pictures at the Model 3 unveiling?

Tftf certainly was one of those FUDsters loudly and repeatedly claiming that Tesla would never actually build the Gigafactory! It’s just empty land, they’ll never construct anything.

What, they’re constructing a giant building? Well, it’s just an empty shell they’re using for a giant scam; everybody knows they’ll never build production lines inside.

What, they put production lines inside? Well, ummm… ummm… hey, did I mention that Tesla is hiding huge losses and will collapse any day… week… month… year… decade now!

Tftf may not post all that FUD here on InsideEVs, but he certainly does, multiple times nearly every single day of the year, over on Seeking Alpha!

The sheer volume of utter B.S. coming from anti-Tesla FUDsters would be entertaining, if it didn’t distract so much from useful and meaningful discussion on various forums.

A major recall of the S or X would be a catastrophe, I’m not sure Tesla could survive, they do not have the infrastructure to cope with that.

I was under the impression it was not Tesla’s policy to do “Major Recalls”, but to wait for the next service interval at the Authorized Service Centers and perform any adjustments quietly at that time, per Musk’s statement “We don’t do Recalls”.

Source please.

No source yet again from one of our repeated serial fabricators. No surprise.

A major recall of the S or X would be a catastrophe, I’m not sure Tesla could survive…”

I think most reasonable people would consider the current recall of Model S’s with Tata airbags to be a “major recall”. I haven’t noticed anybody — other than the blessedly few serial FUDsters like “Dr Valueseeker, tftf and zzzzzzzz — predicting a “catastrophe”. Seems like Tesla is not only surviving that major recall, but continuing to thrive!

Might have been a typo, but it’s Takata (airbags), not Tata. Tata is an Indian conglomerate that makes a LOT of things, including both petrol and electric cars.

Thanks for the correction, Timmy. Mea culpa for not fact-checking before posting!

“The 100-200K prediction for H2 2017 (straight from Elon Musk) is pure utopia.”

Not that different than saying – “You can’t land a Rocket back on land unless you fly it back!”

Or – “Who ever heard of landing a rocket, upright, on a bobbing Barge?”

10 Breakthrough Technologies


Like this:

No Robert, you miss the point about mass manufacturing (this is what the Model3 is about).

The correct anaology would be landing a rocket every day 24/7 over years – without issues.

Ask Toyota. They (still) are the leaders in car manufacturing for mass-market cars with high operative margins.

Toyota, GM and VW churn out Tesla’s annual volume in a few days and weeks.

Yawn. That’s why Tesla hired Audi’s high volume A4/A5/Q5 VP of production to head up the TM3 manufacturing ramp up.

Show me where you predicted prior to 2012 that Tesla would successfully ramp up production to over 75K units per year, and I’ll start believing your ability to predict what TSLA can and cannot do. Because the way I remember it, whiners like you have had a real lousy record of saying Tesla can’t possibly ramp up production, only to be proven wrong.

“Successfully ramped up” ? They are bleeding cash and drowning in warranty costs. Ask the Model X owners about their horror stories. The defects in super expensive Teslas are mind boggling. Not to mention, the vaporware “self driving” Mr. Musk sold last quarter trying to reach his sales goal. Click my link, or browse TMC.
But I admit, Tesla hpyesters are doing fine suppressing the truths though.

Oh puulease! You and tftf sound like those er.. interesting right-wing conspiracy ranters! Attempting to pass off mere speculation as factual evidence! The “if this is happening, then that MUST be the only reason” meme doesn’t cut the mustard with me!

I realize that you seem to have a dog in this hunt. It may even possibly be your job to spread disinformation in hope of achieving personal gain, but at some point, wouldn’t it be better to couch your opinions in a more ‘adult’ tone? Particularly if the intent is to sway others?

Unproven opinion should be touted as OPINION, not fact and name calling without a point attached, is simply childish. You simply wont be taken seriously!

Everybody is fully aware that the Model X had reliability problems in early production numbers. But what you fail to admit is that Tesla achieved a 92% reduction in those problems within the first initial months of production.

You still pretend like it is the first month of Model X production, when it isn’t anymore.

But ACTUAL Model X owners disagree with you. 88% say they would buy a Model X again, with the Model X maintaining a very high customer satisfaction rating.

But heck, don’t let little things like facts, actual customers, and improvements in manufacturing get in the way of a good rant.

You just sound silly selecting well known anecdotal statements that no longer represent typical ownership experiences from AFTER Tesla resolved their initial well known production problems, and try to pretend that Tesla hasn’t fixed any of those early production problems.

“Click my link…”

Nope, I absolutely am not gonna click on your penny-a-click links. A penny is worth infinitely more than all the lies and half-truths in your Tesla-bashing FUD blog posts.

Valueless stinker said “Click my link”

If you want to promote your website you own, in order to further your business motives, buy an ad that goes on that side of the page.


I will never understand why this website allows people to promote their websites for free, or allow hedge fund owners who sell hedge funds that short Tesla to post comments to back their hedge position for free.

Hey, I’ve got some old tires and wheels I’d like to sell. Maybe I should start selling them here in the middle of green car stories? Maybe I could make a business out of it…

What lousy track record? You can read all my comments and blogs/articles on SA, please be more specific. I’m basing my Model3 delay predictions on numbers. Let’s focus on the Gigafactory, for example: _______________________________________ As of late 2016, Tesla only invested about $650M into the Gigafactory – partner PENA (Panasonic NA) only a fraction of that. Which means billions more need to be invested. Want the detailed numbers? Here we go: The limited cap-ex so far is one (if not THE) major reason why Tesla’s projected Model3 sales for 2017, 2018 and even cars produced until 2020 (1M per year ?!) are bogus. How can they make “100-200k units in H2 2017” and then “500k units by 2018” if they are still working on Phase 2? Phase 2 is straight from their Gigafactory PDF from January 2017 (see Tesla IR): “Phase 2 construction, currently underway, will support annualized cell production capacity of 35 GWh and battery pack production of 50 GWh. ” All the further expansion numbers and 100-150 GWh (annualized) projections are wishful thinking at the moment – what Tesla is building out for many months to come is what they describe as “Phase2” – the “original” 35… Read more »

Yawn. Nice attempt at filibustering, but I can see right through it.

With all those posts on SA, you should be able to easily show where you predicted Tesla’s current success back in 2012. You can’t, because you got it wrong all these years.

You’ve NEVER predicted the massive growth in sales of the Model S.

Go ahead, prove me wrong.

As predicted, tftf can’t show out of all of his SA stories he authored, where he EVER predicted Tesla’s current success.

Not surprising. These guys have a such a bad record of getting it wrong that of course they never predicted Tesla’s massive rise from nowhere.

They were busy comparing Tesla to Tucker, and pretending they would never get off the ground. Yet we never hear them admitting how wrong they were….

Latest Gigafactory investment is currently over 1 billion. Yes, there are billions more to go, as Tesla has stated many times. You seem to be under the illusion that ‘phase 2’ must be fully completed in order for Tesla to build any Model 3s. Essentially that Tesla can’t walk and chew gum at the same time! Tesla is already churning out batteries at the Gigafactory, and at a rather prodigious rate, it seems. So i’m going to call your predictions of the impossibility of Tesla’s predictions, BOGUS! As stated before, ad nauseum by Tesla, the Gigafactory is being built in stages at a predicted cost of over 5 billion. Why you keep pretending that this is unknown, is beyond me! Also, Tesla PR announced the Gigafactory as completed?! Cute, but you know better than that one! I noticed most of the post is dedicated to the notion that there is some reason related to the buildout that would prevent Tesla or Panasonic from operating to reach their stated goals. You have yet to show that ANY of the wild speculation you’re touting would in any way affect current timelines! You seem to attempt to equate opinion to fact. You say… Read more »

Note that I only talked about Gigafactory issues above.

And the fact that Tesla (or rather Pansonic) now produces some 2170 cels says nothing about their ability to hit 35GWh in 2018. We will see.

Then there’s the car itself and tons of potential issues manufacturing it. Just one example:

All the “phases” on the battery site remind of similar issues at Fremont:

Read the detailed article in the link. It’s worth it.

I won’t even start about potential supplier and quality issues given the tight deadlines in 2017 and 2018….and the magical $35k base price (highly improbable Tesla can ever turn a profit at that price imho).

Tesla’s goals for 2018 and 2020 remain highly unrealistic in my opinion (both on the battery and car side of things, let alone new cap-ex – given that Tesla now also has to feed Solarcity’s cap-ex..)

tftf — SolarCity is on schedule to launch their revolutionary Solar Roof in mid-2017 starting in California and working east starting in December.

SolarCity profits from this are likely to be huge, if it is as popular as feedback indicates. They are currently wait-listing for Solar Roof installs due to demand. If anything, Tesla’s automotive division will be supported by Tesla’s solar division.

The fact that you don’t even know about this is yet another nail in your coffin of ignorance.

My feeling is that the energy side of the business is going to FAR surpass the vehicle side. Now, does Mr Musk’s predictions seem a tad rosy? Absolutely! He’s privy to the inner workings and no one has seen the kinds of things he’s been doing in these heavy industries before! So, a healthy dose of skepticism is definitely on order and completely understandable.

My issue, is with attempts at turning that uncertainty and skepticism into some kind of certitude of failure or opinion into some kind of factual evidence of impossibility. When it is nothing more than just that, UNCERTAINTY and SKEPTICISM!

Anyone who is keeping up with this, knows Musk isn’t blowing smoke here! He’s deathly serious about getting this thing right. He definitely seems to have his ducks in a row. Can and will things happen along the way? You betcha! But there is no doubt in my mind that he will do his damnedest to accomplish what he says he will do!

“What lousy track record?

“You can read all my comments and blogs/articles on SA…”

No thanks, I’ve already read hundreds or possibly even thousands of them. That’s why I can state as fact, not mere opinion, that very nearly 100% of the statements and predictions you make about Tesla, both on Seeking Alpha and here, are factually wrong, prove to be false, or both. Clearly that’s not by accident, so they’re not only wrong — they are disinformation, which means they’re intentional lies on your part.

Honestly, to compare the actual production rate of these industrial giants with tens, or even hundreds of factories everywhere in the world and with a ramping manufacturing history with more or almost one century long, with actual production rate of Tesla is weird. But, sure the 100.000 Model 3 figures for this year and the 500.000 for the next one, will be difficult to attain, but if Tesla can delivers some 25.000 this year, and some 350.000 next year, they would do an overwhelming historic jump in car manufacturing never seen before. The 3 will be a astonishing success what ever haters could hope for their short positions, or their oil stocks. And the Y is right next the corner to…

If the Model 3 was behind schedule, Tesla would have said it already. That would give a huge boost to Model S sales, as people like me would give up on the Model 3 and switch to the S. The silence seems like a strong indication to me that the Model 3 is perfectly on schedule. Silence is exactly what you should expect in that situation, because if they talked about how they were on schedule, Model S sales were crater. There’s no point in speculating right now though – in 2 weeks + 6 hours, Tesla will release their production plans for 2017, which will tell us: – When is Model 3 Part 3? – When is the Model 3 Delivery Event? – How many Model 3 do they plan to deliver by the end of the year? Speaking of the Model 3 Delivery Event – they’ve said that people who make enough referrals by March 15th will be invited to that event. There’d be no point in sending out invites to that event in March if you weren’t planning on having the event this year. No – all signs to me point towards the Model 3 being a… Read more »

I do not think that Tesla would say if they were more behind schedule than they indicated they would be (July 2017 was already said by Elon Musk to be a tough target).

Although they could gain Model S/X sales, their key customer right now are the people with the billions of dollars to invest. A delayed Model 3 would make it a worse investment.

I agree that all signs point to being “on track.” However, your expectation of May, June is unlikely. Elon Musk said on May 4, 2016 (during the Q1 2016 conference call), that the deadline for suppliers is July 1, 2017. He also said that even if 99% of suppliers were ready by July 1, 2017, they still could not product the car, since you can’t produce a car that is missing 1% of it’s parts. The only time frame Elon/Tesla has ever given is “second half of 2017”. As long as some are delivered by December 31, that qualifies as “on time”. I do expect them to be on time, but production is not likely to start in May or June.

Exactly. Expect limited numbers to be built and delivered before the end of the year to meet the low end of expectations.

May or June delivery is a complete fantasy. If there are initial deliveries in September they will be ahead of realistic expectations.

Now here is someone who has been paying attention. Thanks, Paul!

Tesla still needs to raise some money to fund the buildout for full production. My guess is $1 – $2 billion.

Once they announce the raise, I will believe production will start in 3 – 6 months.

Stock is near all time highs, so equity raise could be soon.

Tesla could raise money from equity if they want, but they already finalized the traditional lines of credit that car companies use to fund manufacturing.

Since Tesla is both dealer and manufacturer, it would be entirely normal for Tesla to use lines of credit to carry the cost between production and finalized sale to the customer. In the rest of the automotive industry this is done using “floor plan” lines of credit.

This is normal and customary in the automotive industry, and there is no reason why Tesla would be any different.

These lines of credit typically aren’t “paid back” in the sense that as cars are sold and as new cars are put on the lot, the money is put back in and pulled back out of the line of credit.

Tesla doesn’t actually need to tap equity for this sort of funding, just like the rest of the automotive industry doesn’t either.

I wasn’t talking about in-transit inventory, I was referring to paying for the remainder of tooling up to 500k vehicles per year. This includes finishing GF (cell production, battery assembly and motor manufacturing) and Fremont production (stamping and assembly mostly, paint shop is complete and shared with S/X).

Those production lines aren’t complete yet and will not be completed quickly without extra capital. Tesla could possibly pay them through cash generated from S/X, but not by 2017 year end.


The Model S assembly line has already been built. They began unit testing in October 2016. It was a 2016 spend, not a 2017 spend.

Elon did indeed announce that due to Model 3 ramp-up costs, that Q3 2016 was the last time Tesla would report a quarterly profit until after the Model 3 hits volume production, but they aren’t starting from scratch on the Model 3 in 2017. Significant amounts of spending has already been done in 2016, and won’t have to be spent a second time in 2017.

“I expect deliveries to begin in May or June – definitely no later than July or August.”

The production deadline Elon gave of 1st July 2017 was described as impossible. There is no way deliveries will begin in May or June. They may be able to produce a few before August but I think it won’t be until the end of 2017 before they start getting into serious produciton numbers.

If Tesla knows that the Model 3 is behind schedule, they will legally be MANDATED to revise their SEC guidance on the 22nd when they release the next set of SEC filings.

So we wait…

“All signs”? What about complete lack of pre-production validation vehicles being sighted? Most of what I’m reading makes it sound like pilot builds will not occur until July (based on comments from suppliers to Tesla). This is where the validation vehicles will come from. Then it will take 6-9 months to complete validation and make refinements/design changes/corrections before start of production. I don’t think Tesla can legally sell cars unless they are built with production-intent parts that have been properly validated.

To me, all signs are pointing toward late Q1 2018 for production. But what do I know, I only work in the auto industry.

I’m guessing you must have made your comment about pilot builds not starting until July, before the story saying that pilot builds start in a couple of weeks was published?

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

Test mules are not reported so far for all I know. I hope clients are not going to be the test mules πŸ™ .So better be late than making it like model x where it took 6 months of production to get things fixed.

Another point of view,

Totally agree. Where is the alpha test fleet??

All previous Tesla models had alpha test cars spotted at this point in the program.

Tesla had no current models to sell when they were developing the Roadster and the Model S, so they had no reason to worry about the “Osborne Effect”. So they could dump tons of photos.

But Tesla is in the opposite position right now. Now they are staying quiet about the TM3 while sticking to selling S’s.

GM did the same thing with the Gen I Volt vs. the Gen II Volt. The Gen I Volt daily info releases fed the creation of the entire gm-volt website, with a constant flow of new info for years. In contrast, the Gen II Volt was mostly a guessing game until months before production began.

“Where is the alpha test fleet??”

Hmmm. It’s usually dangerous to disagree with Nix, in that he’s nearly always right. However, I note that another current article here at InsideEVs is entitled “Report: Tesla To Start Pilot Production Of Model 3 On February 20” (link below).

If Tesla has not yet produced any “production prototypes” or “pre-production units”, then that would explain why nobody has yet given us any “spy photos” of Model 3 production prototypes testing on the road.

Now, that’s only speculation on my part. I certainly don’t have sufficient evidence to say Nix is wrong! Call it, rather, a possible alternative scenario.

Addendum: I should have kept reading before posting. As Nix points out, there is a difference between a “test mule” and what I’m calling a “production prototype”. I was speculating on why we haven’t seen any of the latter. I certainly do agree with Nix that the former very likely are out there driving around, and we don’t recognize them because they don’t have a Model 3 body.

Maybe they’re testing them all inside to prevent spy shots…the plant is certainly large enough…Tesla is kind of crazy about secrecy.

No, they cannot be tested inside. Look at the testing sites for any other major OEM. GM for example has the Milford proving grounds in MI Arizona proving grounds for hot weather testing, and Kapuskasing in Canada for cold weather testing…just to name a few. These are HUGE facilities where everything from vehicle dynamics to corrosion testing is studied and conducted.

Sure, component level testing can be performed inside, but you can’t test a “vehicle” by testing components.

Pre-production vehicles have to be built to validate the sum of the parts. To date, no pre-production (validation) vehicles have been sited…presumably, because they do not yet exist.

You are correct. Tesla’s indoor driving loop isn’t test worthy.

They do however have a private outdoor track though at the Fremont Factory, where they certainly can be testing their two known test cars as often as they want. As well as testing M3 drivetrains inside M3 shells anywhere they want as often as they want.

They certainly aren’t stuck sitting on their thumbs until they build out the rest of their test fleet.

Another idiotic point of view —

you don’t actually understand what the term “Test Mule” actually means, do you?

Test mules don’t have to have the body of the actual production car. Test mules can have any body. Tesla can have dozens of drivetrain test mules running around in Model S bodies, and they would look exactly like a Model S. Nobody would know what drivetrain was inside, unless Tesla WANTED people to know it was a test mule.

For example, here is GM’s Volt test mule. Notice that it isn’t in a Volt body, and the reason you can tell it is a Volt test mule, is because GM made certain everybody knew it was a test mule, by writing it all over the car:

So do you actually KNOW that there are no TM3 drivetrain test mules out there, or are you just speculating wildly because Tesla hasn’t advertised their test mules?

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

Of course Model 3 test mule could have the body of the Ford model T. No question of that. The thing this company is sooo scrutinized that even then it would be most probably noticed. Part from this I sincerely apologize for my idiocy.

I accept your apology for your idiocy.

But exactly how would anybody tell a Model S body with a Model 3 battery pack and drive unit in it from a regular Model S if Tesla doesn’t want them to?

Excluding x-ray vision, of course.

Heck, I can’t even tell the difference from the outside between Model S’s with battery packs that are 60’s, 65’s, 70’s, 75’s, 85’s, 90’s, or 100’s in them unless the badge tells me.

You should be able to freely admit that nobody can tell from the outside, unless Tesla wants you to know.

There were all kinds of Model X mules build on Model S. Remember the one that had a big weight above the roof to change the CG.

But there was still Model X beta vehicles spotted on the road starting January 2015. Teslarati has a pretty awesome count of all the Model X sitings pre-launch. They also have a Model 3 one going now.

I would expect the sightings to be more frequent as we get a little close to production.

I’m expecting we won’t see anything publicly until after the next reveal. Then Tesla will choose to be seen.

The wheelbase is shorter, making it harder to rack up chassis test miles in S or X skin.

One could also argue Volt2 drive train needed a mule much more than a relatively simple base electric setup.

I’d stick with “this car is designed to be easy to make”, and expect a lot more sightings over the next couple months.

Any skeptics who are comparing the Model 3 to the Chevy Bolt really do not get it. I think they are looking at them as competitors in a relatively limited (1%) EV market.

Because the most important criteria in this market are range and price, they believe that if the Bolt has subsidies and the Model 3 does not, the Bolt will be very competitive against the Model 3.

The reality is the Model 3 is targeting the gasoline car market. It is designed to be competitive against entry-level luxury sports RWD sedans. The BMW three series, Audi A4, Mercedes C class the Cadillac ATS etc. It is designed to be competitive with these even without the subsidy.

SpaceX can land a resusable rocket on a barge at sea. The solar panels that will be the roof for new homes and replacement roofs looks fantastic. The storage batteries are selling as fast as they can make them, and you want to bet against Elon Musk.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

Some say he can walk on water, so no I won’t be betting against Elon.

Well – Not so sure about Walking on water – but He Can land a Multi-Story rocket on a Floating Barge – on the water! (and almost do it predictably, now!)

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

He has much talent indeed. Now a little sense of reality would for sure fit some of his followers otherwise question might be whether all of their brain cells put together do match the intelligence of their leader. I have my doubts more than once a day when I read the comments section here I admit.

Another ignorant point of view —

Since you were incapable of actually saying anything of value in your post, this is the only suitable response:

Building 500k cars needs profitability. You can finance 100k cars a year with shareholder money, but 500k a year is impossible. They need to be able to make a $35k car profitably, while an $80k car is losing money.

The $80k car is very profitable. If you believe something else then you are doing something wrong.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

I have no clue if they are very profitable and given the level of opacity I doubt many people do know for sure. I am an accountant and basically question you ask your boss at year end is: do you want a profit or a loss this year ? The only thing an accountant can’t do is hide losses for several years in a row. Sooner or later they surface, sometimes in a big bang.

You just revealed a trade secret many would refuse to believe it exists.

But with his non-GAAP figures Musk has tried to be honest with his investors. And he likes to do the impossible, like turning a profit with a fast growing company.

I would prefer it if he continued to publish his non-GAAP figures and produced a steady loss each quarter.
Profit should not stand in the way of growth and making lots of money.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

“Profit should not stand in the way of growth and making lots of money”.

I agree with that. It is a long term thing and Musk is right to go full steam ahead at the expense of short term profits.

haha you should look into the last quarterly Reports. All are looking horrible. And the 3rd quarter “Profit” of 22 mio is only because of selling more than 100 mio Emission credits. And the bills payable have risen 3 times in the last quarter. So about 400 mio were financed by Tesla’s suppliers. And this Money must be paid in the 4th quarter. But Elon Musk will again promise a lot and all People will be fool an believe him again and again and again

People who have bet against Musk doing what he claims he’s going to do have a pretty poor track record; mostly failures.

Contrariwise, people who bet on Musk doing what he claims generally win, even if Musk is usually late on delivery. For example, those who “bet” on Tesla Motors by buying stock within a year of its IPO, and held onto it, have made about 10x their initial investment.

“People will be fool an believe him again and again…”

Hmmm, let’s say we have a difference of opinion over exactly who has, and has not, been shown to be the “fool” here. πŸ˜‰

Tesla’s automotive business has been gross margin positive for many quarters now. Positive cash flow from operations for two quarters now. You confuse the investments made for expansion, including R&D for the Model 3, Tesla semi, and energy storage business with the state of the S+X business. That’s not a proper way to evaluate them.

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

And I guess you are also absolutely sure they include all cost that makes this gross margin an apple to apple comparison with the rest of the industry. Of course yes, I do all the time forget we are in a temple of intelligence here. tss tss.

Show me any other car company with the same massive growth rate that Tesla is experiencing, and we certainly can do an apples to apples comparison.

But that doesn’t exist, so all we hear are apples to oranges comparisons between a massive growth company, and old manufacturing companies who haven’t seen growth like Tesla’s for a long, long time (if ever).

Jaguar is growing faster than Tesla.

Jaguar isn’t a company. Jaguar is a badge.

Tata (the company that build Jaguars) absolutely has not been growing at the rate that Tesla has grown since 2012. So no, we can’t compare the two companies results.

And at least in US sales, Jag has not grown faster.
Year || Tesla || Jag
2012 || 2558 || 12011
2013 || 18195 || 16952
2014 || 16550 || 15773
2015 || 26608 || 14466
2016 || 47185 || 31243

And that’s if you ignore all the years that Jag spend dropping from 60K units to 50K, to 40K to 30K, before they finally made it back to 30K a decade later. Jaguar US sales are at half of what they were in the early 2000’s, if that’s what you consider growth….

“And I guess you are also absolutely sure they include all cost that makes this gross margin an apple to apple comparison with the rest of the industry.”

I am absolutely certain of one thing: If it was correct to evaluate Tesla’s finances the way all of you Tesla bashers keep saying we should, then Tesla would have gone out of business long ago.

I’m also sure of another thing: What Tech01x says makes sense… unlike your semi-incoherent insults and rants.

In fact, I wonder if what really has you upset is losing lots of money on a “short” investment in Tesla stock.

Tesla is losing money because they are not producing enough cars. The gross profit is there, just not the net profit. Making more cars will fix that.

If they could sell more cars at $80k you were correct. But selling more cars at $40k is a whole different story. It is very doubtful they can maintain gross margins on Model 3. That is the norm in the industry. High end models have much higher gross margins.

Elon or some other Tesla spokesman said early on that they aimed to make a 15% profit on the Model 3, unlike the ~25% profit they were making at that time. So it’s not like Telsa doesn’t realize it’s entering a market with a narrower profit margin.

Hopefully you do understand the concept of making up in volume what you lose in margin? If they can sell 400k cars per year, that’s a heck of a volume of sales!

Now of course, that doesn’t guarantee that Tesla will have as much success with the M3 as it did with the MS. But if not, it won’t be because Tesla was naive about going down-market with their new model.

Analysts believe Tesla will ____ in 2017.
Analysts believe Trump will ____ in 2017.
Analysts believe American economy will ____ in 2017.

These analysts are no better, or smarter, than weather forecasting “meteorologists.”

No one should take any of these clowns serious.

Did you you just troll meteorologists?

That’s rather unfair, Imfao. Meteorologists have gotten much, much better at forecasting the weather than market analysts have ever been at forecasting Tesla’s string of amazing successes! πŸ˜‰

WTF is a “Stetson University?”

Teslas are price competitive without any incentives.

Incentives just push the demand curve to the right.

Private business college in Florida for wealthy New Englanders.

And they all wear funny hats.

I bet they did at one point…

“Stetson University was founded in 1883 by Henry Addison DeLand, a New York philanthropist, as DeLand Academy. In 1887, the Florida Legislature enacted the Charter of DeLand University as an independent institution of higher learning.

DeLand University’s name was changed in 1889 to honor hat manufacturer John B. Stetson, a benefactor of the university, who served with town founder, Henry A. DeLand, and others as a founding trustee of the university. Stetson also provided substantial assistance to the university after DeLand, on account of financial reverses, was no longer able to do so.”

The sports logo does include the hat. I’ll stop now, I promise. I do have a buddy (Model S owner) that went to school there.

I’m not quite sure why it matters to the average consumer.

I still think Tesla can get the Model 3 out the door by the end of the year, even if in small numbers. At the latest, before next spring.

Even if it were delayed, why would this have much of a negative effect on sales of the vehicle? If someone wants a Model 3 in the fall of 2017, why would they not also want a Model 3 in the spring of 2018? Similarly, I doubt many people would suddenly switch their minds on the car because they don’t get the full tax credit. By that point credits will be on the way out on the Bolt as well.

The problem is cash burn. If the product is late, that means another quarter of cash burn. So if it is 6 months late, probably than means Tesla will lose another $1b. So they need to do another equity raise.

The cash burn is from capital expenditures at the two factories, expanding retail presence, superchargers, and service centers. Timing of the model 3 shouldn’t great effect the expense side, as long as the non-factory related expenses are covered by S and X sales (as they appear to be) and the factory expenses are mostly fixed and on-budget (which also seems to be the case)

If the product is late 3 months that means the investment sits idle for 3 months. It will directly affect cash burn. However, Tesla is not operationally profitable yet (excluding capital investment). Therefore cash burn is not just due to capital investment. It is also due to operation.

“Tesla is not operationally profitable yet (excluding capital investment).”

So people keep saying. I’m not convinced. I think they’re counting the money wrong, just as they did with If Tesla has been bleeding cash every year, even aside from the capital investment needed to grow the business, then how can they still be in business?

I don’t believe in perpetual motion in business any more than I believe it in science.

“The cash burn is from capital expenditures at the two factories, expanding retail presence, superchargers, and service centers.”

…and hiring new workers at the Fremont assembly plant, the Gigafactory, and at new Tesla stores/showrooms.

Yeah, any substantial delay in getting the M3 into production is going to be a serious blow to Tesla’s bottom line. That doesn’t mean Tesla can’t survive a delay of, perhaps, 2-3 quarters, but it would certainly be better if there was little or no delay at all.

Tesla has “bet the farm” before, and survived… repeatedly. But if they keep doing that, odds are that eventually they will lose. I hope this is the last time that Tesla goes “all in” betting on the successful outcome of an expansion in the business.

Sorry, I should have included a quote to the statement I was referring to and how it relates to the average consumer πŸ™‚ : β€œThe Bolt is out there already and they get government subsidies, making the Model 3 less competitive … there will be a very limited number of Model 3 owners that will get the credits. They almost all won’t.” I don’t feel this makes the Model 3 in any way less competitive. The Bolt is still limited at the moment and but will be available around summer/fall 2017 in major US car markets, EV strongholds and foreign markets. For me in Texas, it will be a few months earlier than the Model 3 at most. In mid 2018 the full tax rebate will still be available for both vehicles. By early 2019, the tax rebate will probably be gone or diminished for both vehicles. Tesla will most likely produce more Model 3s next year than Chevy will produce the Bolt. This will offset Chevy’s lead even though I do expect progressively more Bolts to be produced in 2018 and 2019 than they will in 2017. Even if I were to Assume Tesla is very late, Tesla still… Read more »

Tesla aims for mass production of the 3 in a way that Chevy does not for the Bolt. Tesla’s plans are so ambitious that even a significant miss will have them running rapidly past the Bolt by the end of 2018.

BenG Says – “Expect limited numbers to be built and delivered before the end of the year to meet the low end of expectations.” Techno says – “The production deadline Elon gave of 1st July 2017 was described as impossible.” Funny thing is – Elon’s Goal for Production this year is at least a 100,000! So even if he is off – by 50%, it seems to me – he will still catch and beat the Bolt EV Deliveries! I expect 1st deliveries to be before Labor Day Weekend, at the latest, with a possibility ranging from in Mid July, to Mid August, for the start of deliveries in a big Presentation! The Volume might not be 4,000 Cars a week to make the last 26 weeks of the year push out a full 100,000 units, but even a first week of just 500 units would be decent as a starting point to ramp up from, as he starts with California Deliveries! Shipping and Delivering adds some time – even in California, for those not getting their cars at the Delivery event, so starting a bit slow, like that – is not a bad thing, anyway! Then – Elon said… Read more »

Musk said: “”The date we are setting with suppliers to get to a volume production capability with the Model 3 is July 1 next year,” Musk said on the Q1 2016 earnings call this week. “Now, will we actually be able to achieve volume production on July 1 next year? Of course not. … the reality is that the volume production will then be some number of months later as we solve the supply chain and internal production issues.” ”

So he says right there that volume production won’t start for months after the July 1 internal target. Then they’ve got to do quality control and delivery … it will be impressive if they can deliver in volume by December 2017. The 100,000 ‘target’ for 2017 is pure fantasy.

I like your optimism, but as a realist, I doubt we’ll see more than 100K Model 3 by the END of 2018. It’s still early in the year and a lot could still happen, but I just don’t see any signs that Tesla is anywhere close to going into volume production.

I predict that the Bolt and Model 3 will each hit 100K units sometime in the first half of 2019.

BenG — Tesla’s ambitious build plans will actually lead to MORE people being able to buy a Model 3 with a tax incentive than Bolts.

That is because the sunset (if the incentive isn’t killed before it sunsets) is based upon quarters, and not on units.

Just for argument’s sake, let’s say that GM will make 10K units/quarter, and Tesla will make 25K units/quarter. I’m not predicting that, I’m just using easy numbers.

In the last quarter when each company hits 200K:
GM makes 10K units, Tesla 25K.

The next quarter will be full incentive:
GM makes 10K units, Tesla 25K.

The next quarter will be half incentive:
GM makes 10K, Tesla 25K.

The next quarter will be 1/4 incentive:
GM makes 10K, Tesla 25k.

That is 40K units for GM with incentives, and 100K units for Tesla with incentive.

If Tesla ramps up to higher numbers faster, the totals would be even higher. The sunset as it is written now greatly benefits whoever is building the most cars per quarter during the sunset period.

This is more or less how I see it playing out as well.

For the Bolt, 70-75k units between 2016-2018. Tesla will produce more than that next year. Raw numbers, more Model 3s will get tax credits than Bolts.

People may have other reasons to cancel or delay a model 3 purchase. Things happen! Leases end, jobs are lost, budgets adjust, interests change… But “a lack of tax credits” compared to the Bolt is simply not going to be one of them.

Yep, yep.


People put down a reservation on a Model 3 when there wasn’t really a known alternative.

Now there are known alternatives with more coming out this week even. If for no other reason than having alternatives slipping the date is going to hurt them for that reason.

Wait, what do you mean I can get a Hyundai Ioniq for less $, with similar range in 2018, and holy crap right now!??!?!?!?!?!?

What are the alternatives do you say? And which if any of them are comparable to the Model 3?

Don’t be daft. Why don’t you make an educated guess?

DJ, Why is it that Everyone is thinking Tesla will be late with the Model 3, but – (those that didn’t order one yet) will affect their ramp up of sales, because there is a promise of yet another 200 mile Range EV from …..Hyundai (IONIQ EV – for 2018), or, Every other Mfg. of 200 Mile Range EV’s will be on time, on Volume, and have as much Value, as the Model 3, for Less Money?

Why would they? To keep from losing sales to the Model 3, for sure, but – as a reactionary process! Which of them have announced anything that exceeds Tesla’s Master Plan 1 yet? Let alone the results we have today – and Master Plan 2?

And – while the 200 mile range IONIQ EV just Might Come in 2018, we (in USA / Canada) don’t even have the 2017 model being delivered yet! And everyone who ordered the Model 3, sight Unseen, on March 31st, 2016, most likely was not ignorant of the coming Chevy Bolt EV, and most of those who put a Deposit in the following 3-4 weeks, likely also knew of other EV Competitors, as well!

You’re assuming a lot. Perhaps you shouldn’t? It doesn’t take a genius to realize that when faced with the choice of being forced to pay likely $50k+ for a Model 3 in the beginning or say $30k-$35k for another 200 AER mile EV that some, if not many will jump ship.

Tesla got a crap ton of reservations because there wasn’t really anything concrete out there yet now there is, and there will be more. The more they delay the launch the more it will hurt them from a sales standpoint. Although it’s not like they were going to be able to produce 500k of them in 2018 anyways…

As a consumer what do I care about some master plan? All I know is that if I want a reasonably priced EV with 200+ miles the Model 3 and the not yet released Bolt were the only options. By 2018 there will be more available and most at a lower price point than you’ll be able to get a Model 3 for. I don’t know why that is difficult to understand.

Ha, ha, this is funny. So there is a choice between the Ford, Toyota, VW, BMW,etc. All have small car that is basically the same, but all range in price. Sorry, how many BMW are sold? In my country that is one of the more expensive cars and they are too numerous to count, so by your logic they should all be driving a Toyota. So while some people are going to switch from Model 3,I think the main reason for most of these reservations (and hopefully sales) is because people actually want a Tesla, just like all those BMW owners could have got a cheaper car but decided to get their BMW. Personally, Tesla has shown that they have a significantly different product to the others, a totally different philosophy, and are perceived to be more open and honest in their dealings with their customers. Those things are what this small group of 400k reservation holders are looking for, IMO. Oh, and they are hoping the holy grail of a low cost Tesla will be true. Personally, I didn’t put down a deposit because 1) I am conservative, 2) I know a lot of 200+ vehicles are almost ready,… Read more »

Maybe you don’t care, but everyone has their own priorities. Some people want the lowest price, but a significant part of the population cares about the future/planet and statistics show that those people have much higher incomes. For those consumers, the vision of the future described in the Master Plan is probably more important than the vehicle itself which is why a cheaper car or a compliance car is not enough.

If a significant portion of the population actually cared about the planet then you wouldn’t be able to find an EV on a dealer lot ever because they’d long be spoken for. I think you give humanity as a whole WAY too much credit not to mention your argument is flawed. A significant portion of the population does in fact NOT each a higher income than the rest. As a consumer I don’t care about some companies master plan, nor does a significant portion of the population. What I, and the 99% care about is the product that is available now. The 99% aren’t going to plop down $ on an overpriced product just so that next years version can be produced. Who do you think the vast majority of the car buying public are? Hint, it’s not the 6 figure and up income crowd who have the luxury of actually being able to and willing to care. And what is this compliance car crap again? The 200+ mile EVs that are coming out aren’t compliance cars. Just because some idiots like to claim they are because they’re first sold in CA and then other CARB states and then nationally… Read more »

Sorry, I meant to include a quote from an analyst in the article. I included it in a reply above.

The Bolt was shown off more or less in completed form before reservations even opened for the Model 3.

I have no doubt that there will be people who switch to the Bolt for whatever reason. There will also be people who had Bolts or Volts who switch to a Model 3. I personally am buying a Bolt because it suits my needs better. πŸ™‚

But I do not see tax rebates or release dates as impacting someones decision to change from the Model 3 to the Bolt. If they do so it will likely be for other reasons.

I’m not so sure the longer range Ioniq is going to get on the market before the Model 3 gets into volume production. They’re saying 2018 for a longer range model, but is that 2018 model year, for delivery in 2019?

The European markets have already received their first boatloads of 28 kwh Ioniqs, but it looks like the next round of European buyers are going to wait 3-6 months before the cars that they’ve ordered actually arrive.

I’m guessing that this is because Hyundai is now delivering them to the US, but in any case, they seem to have built a really good EV and might not be able to keep up with demand.

I hope they’re arriving here in Canada too, as I’m really interested in making an Ioniq my first EV – range is just good enough to do road trips – the extra 25-50km and the faster fast charger makes it much more useable than the LEAF. Also, the cargo space on the Ioniq is very impressive.

DJ said:

“…what do you mean I can get a Hyundai Ioniq for less $, with similar range in 2018, and holy crap right now!??!?!?!?!?!?”

Who is the “you” that you are referring to here? A fake news source? Or some anti-Tesla FUDster over on Seeking Alpha?

The Hyundai Ioniq has a 28 kWh battery pack, and an EPA range rated at 108 miles.

That’s probably very close to exactly half the Model 3’s battery pack capacity, and certainly no more than half what the M3’s range will be; perhaps even a bit less.

I’m not quick to add someone to the list of known serial Tesla bashers posting here, but you’re moving toward that *cough* honor *cough* with surprising rapidity.

I believe he is talking about the increase range on the 2018 Ioniq. At least that’s how I read it anyways.

I don’t think very many people would switch from the Model 3 to the 200-mile Ioniq. It does look like a very nice vehicle – early owners seem to really like the 125-ish mi range one.

But it is certainly no model 3, and I don’t think it will be released in nearly the same quantities as the Model 3 or even the Bolt will.

And we don’t have a firm release date for the 200-mile Ioniq either, so there is a very good chance it would not be released before the Model 3 anyways. Is it 2018 model year? Or 2018 release as a 2019 model year?

The longer before the MIII comes out, the more MS and MX are sold, which means less EV rebates available. If MIII gets significantly delayed past Tesla hitting the 200k cutoff, that’s a huge blow.

I doubt the Model 3 will be delayed past Tesla hitting the 200k trigger. They are around 115,000 now. Figure they sell 70,000 the rest of the year, they would hit the trigger in the first quarter of 2018. Even if the 3 is significantly delayed I still expect it to be delivered in the first quarter 2018.

Then they get full tax credit the following quarter, 50% credit the next 2 quarters, and 25% the following 2 quarters after that.

If the Model 3 does completely miss this year, then will Tesla sell significantly more than a combined 60k for 2017? For 2016, S and X combined for a little under 50k in the US.

Of course I am just speculating and putting this 60k number out as an example. This would still put them ~ 20k short of 200k. I believe that the rebate is based on production, not sales. But if I am wrong someone can correct me.

Once Tesla does hit 200,000 then for the remaining months of the tax rebate they can produce as many as they like and all produced will qualify. Tesla would have to be very very late (like winter of 2018) in order for the Model 3 to receive less tax credits than the Chevy Bolt next year.

I just don’t see that happening.

Phase-out of the tax credit is triggered by 200,000 EV sales, not production.

“The longer before the MIII comes out, the more MS and MX are sold, which means less EV rebates available. If MIII gets significantly delayed past Tesla hitting the 200k cutoff, that’s a huge blow.”

Since it was always questionable whether or not even the very earliest M3 buyers would qualify for the full rebate, I’m not sure just who would find it to be a “huge blow”. Perhaps someone who wasn’t paying attention to how fast the rebates are running out. This has been discussed frequently in InsideEVs comment threads, and of course over on the Tesla Motors Club forum.

Those who have been paying attention should have assumed they’re most likely going to get in on half the rebate, and that getting the full rebate would happen only by a lucky fluke.

Sure it’s going to be late. When has Tesla ever delivered anything on time? How much are solar roofs again? How much will a Model 3 actually be priced at?? No way we’re this far along with these things supposedly going to be released soon w/o those things being known. Hell, we haven’t even seen a production version of the Model 3 yet.

Regardless if it’s released on time or not one thing is sure in that you won’t be able to get it in every state and at it’s stated $35k price. I sincerely hope all the people moaning and groaning about the Bolts release schedule say the same, if not more so about the Model 3’s.

GM is the only company with a legion of axe-grinders trying to settle scores over a car from 20 years ago.

So no matter how many EVs GM sells, it’s always “just a smokescreen” and they are secretly trying to “undermine the market.”

No doubt right!?!?! My Grandma’s EV1 was scrapped so I must protest against them for my entire life!!!!

Meanwhile Elon lies over and over to the general public and he’s their savior. I seriously don’t get it.

You clearly don’t visit many car enthusiast sites. Decades old axe-grinders are everywhere.

Heck, a decade later and BMW enthusiasts still talk about Chris Bangle like he was the Son of Satan.

Goto Ford truck sites, and they still curse Ford for killing the 7.3L Power Stroke diesel.

Heck, right here we have a previous Roadster owner who simply won’t let decade old problems with his Tesla go, and still whines about it to this day as if it had any relevance to the Model S or Model 3.

Various people have been saying all sorts of things about their expectations for the delays on the Model 3. Way worse than anything written or said about GM’s Bolt.

Plenty of people disparage Tesla on a daily basis. They’ve been writing articles about Tesla and Elon Musk, saying things like it is a ponzi scheme and how Musk belongs in jail. There seems to be some false equivalence here as GM doesn’t get nearly the amount of vitriol that Tesla receives.

Perhaps that is because Elon repeatedly lies to the consumer meanwhile GM doesn’t as much?

I dunno, seems pretty reasonable to me.

GM has lied for years and years.
What ignition issue?
Meanwhile over 100 deaths from the ignition issue.

Lol, what a soiled tampon….

You’re claiming GM doesn’t lie “as much” to its customers? People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones!

Heck, I could give a list of lies it’s told about just the Volt, let alone all its cars! For example, claiming the Volt gets “230 MPG”. That’s the biggest whopper I’ve ever heard about in automotive advertising!

(βŒβ– _β– ) Trollnonymous

I think they get their fair share.
They’re effed if they do and effed if they don’t, otherwise they’re effed no matter what so keep moving forward…….

Gigafactory battery delivery began on time.

Tesla Powerwall 2 delivery began on time.

Tesla’s world record holding massive 80 MWh energy storage station at Mira Loma was delivered on time:

This article is designed to create anxiety and doubt, purely based on nothing more than opinions.

Car development and testing timelines are not an opinion.

If you cut corners in this process you will face an expensive recall or warranty costs later.

Tesla’s optimistic schedule for “100-200K Model3 cars in H2 2017” is simply utopia imho.

I believe that would be autopia πŸ˜‰

It’s actually hard to believe the Model-3 will be out so soon.. Even if it is late, we’re talking less than a year at this point. Even though I have no plans to purchase one (I’m plenty happy with my 2017 Volt) I recognize the importance this will play by changing the entire landscape of the automotive world. Other manufacturers will be out of excuses. They will have to start producing competitive vehicles or they will start to look like dinosaurs. General motors and BMW are about the only two manufacturers that I think are ready for it. Everyone else is dragging their feet. I hope Nissan picks up the pace shortly with a new Leaf offering.

Nissan will be ready. The Gen 2 Leaf will be a competitive offering that will be delivered in mass quantities well before the end of this year.

Hyundai only has to up the battery size in Ioniq. It is already quite compelling compared to Model 3, and also S. Then there are others.
Model 3 will just be a tiny noise in the 100 million cars a year auto sector.

I swear everyone forgets that the Model 3 is supposed to be comparable to a BMW 3-Series sedan (saloon). That is the price point $35K to $55K for a performance sports sedan, the subsidies are a perk.

Also, no one ever splits up the 400K reservations by continent. If there are only 80K US reservations, then I don’t see what the fuss is about for US deliveries. There never were 500K customers in the US market for the vehicle. There is also the European assembly plant in Tilburg, Netherlands that no one talks about that could probably assemble all the orders for Europe to meet its demand.

I’m just saying that analysts seem to be focused too heavily on the US market and are failing to look globally.

“There is also the European assembly plant in Tilburg”

Completely different from a full auto manufacturing plant, that’s just final assembly…

Tesla would need to invest billions more to upgrade it to a full plant.

Kenneth Model 3 Owners Club

Not true about the tax rebates. People forget that the full rebate amount stop clock starts when Tesla hits 200K delivered (not produced). Once that starts, the 6-month blocks of full rebate, then half of that, then half of that continue for 18 months. Yes, it’s a surety that not all pre-reservations will qualify for the full amount, but I believe that the majority will get something, even the 1/4 amount. Once Tesla hits the 200K, there is no more MAX amount of cars to deliver. They could theoretically deliver 300K Model 3’s in the USA in the next 6 months after hitting total of 200K cars delivered. Would be nice if the Anal-lysts explained it properly.

Love the show. It’s Boss.

(βŒβ– _β– ) Trollnonymous

I’m sure something is going to change when the 200K is reached and rebates decrease.

Maybe the dunbass’d gooberment can wise up and slowly reallocate the gas subsidies to further fund the EV rebates. That way the shock of having to pay the real cost of gas wakes up the sleeping others to get off gas.

The Roadster was late but it is a great car and Tesla could not produce enough to keep up with demand. The Model S was late but it’s a great car and Tesla can’t produce enough to keep up with demand. Model X was late but it’s a great car and Tesla can’t produce enough to keep up with demand. I see a pattern.

I’m extremely confident Model 3 2017 sales will not even match the Bolt’s 2016 sales (i.e. the last 5 days in December)

And if you are that confident, how about this, – for each 1,000 Cars (Tesla Model 3) Tesla Delivers after July 1st and before December 31st, you give your Bolt EV to someone else to drive – for at least a Day, to convince them – they should not order – or that they should cancel their reservation for the Model 3! I will offer to be the first driver! :^)

Yes, late is built into the stock price today.
Everyone expects a 3-6 month delay.
Only a fool would expect a perfect launch.

Don’t care. It happens when it happens. I’m getting a Bolt lease and then waiting yet another couple years for my Tesla. Sucks that Tesla won’t get my money, but that’s life.

Is it me, or is no one is factoring in the manufacturing learning curve on the Model 3? The Roadster was the company’s first attempt, and was basically hand built, so of course it’s late. The S was the first attempt at building a car using an automated factory, and because it wasn’t designed for ease of manufacture, so of course it was late. The X was designed as a fancy car with all the bells and whistles and a large margin for rich people to keep financing the development of the Model 3, and as such it’s far too complicated, so of course it was late. The Model 3 on the other hand, is designed with ease of manufacturing in mind. (It can only achieve its price point with mass manufacturing, so that’s built into the design.) Tesla is no longer focused on how to build a working EV, because it already knows how to do that, but on the machine that builds the machine. The Gigafactory is on schedule, so the battery packs will be ready. As pointed out by others elsewhere, they’re much bigger now, so suppliers take them seriously now and know that they can’t make… Read more »

You read too much into EM’s twitter one liners ….

You honestly believe that Tesla is on schedule with no reported mule model 3 on the road now? Or is EM also trying to fully road test a car somehow on computer, indoor track or dyno???

If they want to deliver cars this year they’d have to have some samples on the road now. They are not even close as we know, so why to keep purporting the hype? Oh I forgot, the stock price …. makes sense.

(βŒβ– _β– ) Trollnonymous

They’ve already been seen in the wild. What rock have you been under?

Every Model 3 spotted since the unveiling is one of the three from the unveiling (silver & black matte are real, the red is a wood model).

Well, the fact that they certainly exist even in small numbers, and people have even ridden inside them, certainly disproves that they don’t exist. Which is what the claim was.

Whole 2 of them!!!!
Go Tesla, GOOOOOO!!!!

I think there’s some confusion here, rather than actual disagreement, because people are saying “test mule” when they mean “production prototype”.

Sure, Tesla undoubtedly has test mules running around testing the Model 3 drivetrain, battery pack and various other components.

But so far as I can see, Tesla hasn’t yet built any actual production prototypes. In fact, there’s another current article right here at InsideEVs that says those will start rolling off the production line on Feb 20. It’s those cars which will very likely be used in the “Reveal part 3”, and also likely will be seen in “spy photos” being driven on the roads in and near Fremont, CA.

(βŒβ– _β– ) Trollnonymous

I’m pretty sure everyone expects the Model 3 to be late. Myself included and way the hell back on the list.

As for the 500K in 2018? That’s a pipe dream inhaled on Mars without a enviro suit. Not gunna happen IMHO.

The alleged 400K reserved, they will be lucky for that to turn into actual 250K sales.

Personally I don’t care if it’s late for me. I’m far enough in the list that 2020 is my goal……lol

Now the big question is what will California do with the HOV stickers for 2020 because they expire Dec 31, 2019.

500K per year target is not just Model 3 sales. It is Model 3 + Model S + Model X sales.

(βŒβ– _β– ) Trollnonymous

lol……good one!

That guys looks more peaceful than me in this wait.

Weren’t you leaning Bolt at this point Kdawg? I assume MI will get fully stocked in September. No way GM shorts the home market after full availability.

I plan to keep driving my Volt until 2018/2019. That’s probably when I will be invited to order my Model 3. There should be some data of them on the road from the CA people, and the Bolt EVs will have lots of data (also a possible price drop). At that point I’ll weigh the EV landscape and make a purchase. My Volt still runs like new after almost 5 years, so no rush. Heck, I may even end up buying a Gen2 (3?) Volt.

Good plan.

I have been impatiently waiting in an old POS ICE after my Leaf lease expired. I considered a used Volt as a holdover, but getting a child in and out of that back seat constantly was a deal breaker.

I was hoping for a VoltUV last year, but we got Bolt instead. So it is down to Bolt, 3, and LEAF 2.0. LEAF is basically off the list now unless something changes. I need a new ride by this time next year.

So nothing concrete. Just the usual pundits offering the usual speculations based on the usual arguments. Hardly even newsworthy.

The shorts are feeling the pain πŸ™‚ we will see more articles like this but it won’t change where this is going. $8billion in shorts money will mostly make it into tesla production ramp up as investors keep buying it and can cash out when the short squeeze happens. A lot of that money may be used to buy tesla vehicles, at least in my case πŸ™‚

Yep, they are getting continuously hammered. It’s a slow motion short squeeze, sort of like a Chinese Water Torture, as it keeps grinding higher and higher, sending shorts into a gruesome state as they await the next tick up, thinking always it has to stop sometime, but it never does.

I honestly don’t think it’s so critical that the Model 3 be delivered this year, let alone the middle of the year. Nobody cares whether Tesla lives up to its promises. It’s Teflon Tefla.

Counter argument from Motley Fool (of all places): “the Model 3 is very specifically being designed and engineered “for ease of manufacturing.” After all, ease of manufacturing is a requisite for a car that Tesla hopes to make half a million (or more) of every year. Tesla has gotten quite good at making the Model S, and Model 3 is “quite a bit less complex to manufacture than the Model S.” That’s in part due to the fact that Model 3 will be about 20% smaller and won’t have as many tech features as the Model S. This is the key to hitting the late 2017 target. Tesla continues to reiterate that everything is on track, but you need to appreciate why it really is different this time around, as opposed to assuming that Tesla will always be late on its promises. As an executive, you have to figure that Musk has learned his lessons from over-promising in the past, too. As far as the critical $35,000 price point is concerned, the biggest contributing factor there is the Gigafactory. The good news is that Tesla’s massive battery factory is ramping ahead of schedule, and right now investors “should not worry… Read more »

Look who wrote that article.

A certain Evan Niu.

I wonder who employed him next?

Starts with a T…

Yes, like I said, contrary viewpoint.

Yes, he worked for Tesla for 3 months. What’s your point? Do you think we should listen to people like a hedge fund manager who personally profits off of conning investors into buying into his fund that shorts TSLA instead? Like a certain poster who posts here?

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

I love to make average of all opinions to try to find the most plausible answer. Having just pent 15 minutes reading all the comments and now putting my brain in average mode. In between those who say we won’t see Model 3 in large figures before 2019 and others that believe they will flow like a river out of Freemont factory by 1st of May this year. The plausible reality might be that they it will be late but not that much (end of 2017) but that we will need to expect 2018 to see them in large numbers, probably simultaneously with second generation Nissan Leaf. I won’t eat my socks if I am wrong but almost.

So if I predict Model 3 production will be Oct. 22nd, 1960, does that mean the day that Tesla will actually build their car will happen sooner?

Quick everybody, Magical Thinking has now replaced facts. If we all post predictions for the Model 3 going into production years ago, we can clap our hands, click our heels, and we will all have Tesla Model 3’s in our garages by morning!!

Sorry, but averaging in a bunch of self-admitted TSLA shorters as if they had any impact on reality is just Magical Thinking (google it).

Another (Euro) industrial point of view
Yes but often “shorts” point of views are way better constructed and educated than the random EV enthusiast here. I am an accountant and analyzing 10-K forms is something I can do therefor I am able to sort BS from the rest, I am sorry having to say this it is a fact that Elon says lots of BS as regards financial information. He is a very gifted CEO and I understand doing so serves his companies well but I only can acknowledge that fact. Of course “shorts” having an agenda they twist reality a in their direction as well and do ignore the huge force which Tesla brand has (their big failure). Despite all this many of their articles are of high quality and well informed. Moreover at least I can help myself and check the facts they mention with financial reports issued by Tesla. Tesla is a financial nightmare as it can obviously be seen with knowledge few here has but nevertheless a financial nightmare that is very likely to succeed for reasons that go way beyond dry financial analysis. Now success doesn’t mean that stock pricing will grow to the sky, it won’t and wouldn’t touch this… Read more »

“Another (Euro) industrial point of view” said:

“Yes but often ‘shorts’ point of views are way better constructed and educated than the random EV enthusiast here.”

It is very rare to see any Internet post from any self-admitted Tesla stock shorter, when talking about Tesla or its cars, that isn’t full of lies and half-truths. When someone is just repeating Big Lies which have been thoroughly refuted dozens or hundreds of times, then I don’t care much how well educated he seems to be, or how good his grammar is.

Now, I have seen a calm, honest discussion between stock “shorts” and “longs” about the strategies of short vs. long investments. But it wasn’t about Tesla stock!

There seems to be something, probably the high volatility of the stock price, which brings the worst and most prolific serial liars and truth-twisters out of the woodwork to flood the Internet with FUD posts about Tesla and its cars.

That is demonstrated in this very discussion thread!

Another (Euro) industrial point of view

The misunderstanding between EV enthusiasts and “shorts” comes from the fact that both are wrong and both are right at the same time. The “short” is the financial type of person, when EV enthusiast come with their “facts” like losses are due to Tesla huge capex, well my financial eye comes in and the EV enthusiast comes down spiraling in flame with this type of nonsense (he is actually not totally wrong but it is way more complicated than this, Tesla business model (direct sales) also plays a large part into their huge losses, and, no, Capex does not directly affect the P&L). Now when the same “short” mentions that Tesla is doomed because of those very financial factors then I put my EV enthusiast hat on and do know that this “financial” type of guy misses the big picture, many other factors in their equation that eventually make their opinion clueless. So as often, truth stands somewhere in the middle between those two types. Sad thing is that both are complementary and would greatly benefiting from each other if they learned to compromise a bit their opinions and learn from each other.

None of that is happening here. What we have is pure trolling here by people who are notorious for using all forms of social media (twitter, websites, investor websites, enthusiast websites, etc) in a conscious effort to attack the company they are shorting at every angle, with the intention of eroding investor confidence through sheer repetition.

One of the shorts who posts here owns a hedge fund that makes a percent off the top of all of his investors, whether he is right or wrong about TSLA going up or down. As the hedge fund owner/manager he makes money just convincing people to short TSLA by investing into his fund. He doesn’t care about anything green, EV’s, etc. He just uses and abuses twitter, boards, the web, etc to practice his ABC’s — “Always Be Selling”.

How they get away with using this site to promote the the fundamentals of their hedge funds, or their for-profit websites is beyond me.

But attacking Tesla from every angle with repeated proven falsehoods certainly has nothing to do with debating the finer points of being short or long any stock.

I actually WANT Model 3 to be late.

Service centers and super chargers won’t be the same when we get “the masses” using them.

I think my buy of a used Model S is the best approach. No one else seems to think that way but…..
that’s fine with me.

I’m enjoying my S now. While ‘Yall wait for Model 3:)

*laugh* Even better, you will be towards the front of the list as a current Tesla owner if you change your mind and the Model 3 is delivered on time. You are in the cat’s seat. If you have a reservation…..

And in other news…

Rain is wet.

Steven Loveday wrote: “It is of the utmost importance that Tesla lives up to its promises and gets the Tesla Model 3 out on roadways by the middle of this year.” Not only do I disagree with that opinion, I think it’s factually incorrect to call the July 1 production goal a “promise”. I note it is repeatedly referred to as a “production goal” further down in the article, so why did Mr. Loveday start out by calling it a “promise”? Pot-stirring a bit, there? Let’s see what Elon Musk himself said about that July 1 goal: Now, will we actually be able to achieve volume production [of the Model 3] on July 1 next year? Of course not. The reason is that even if 99 percent of the internally produced items and supplier items are available on July 1, we still cannot produce the car because you cannot produce a car that is missing 1 percent of its components. Nonetheless, we need to both internally and with suppliers take that date seriously, and there needs to be some penalties for anyone internally or externally who does not meet that timeframe. This has to be the case, because there’s just… Read more »