Analyst Predicts Tesla Model X Deliveries Will Soar This Quarter
Partly due to the progressive increase in Tesla Model X production, third quarter deliveries are expected to increase drastically. Although the Model X has seen rather low sales numbers thus far, Motley Fool’s analyst sees a change coming.
With demand reaching far beyond deliveries, Motley Fool states 35,000 original reservation orders were made for the Model X, and just 7,200 deliveries through June (Q4 2015 – 206, Q1 2016 – 2,400, and Q2 2016- 4,638), so there is no question that more vehicles still need to be delivered.
Quickly is the key for Tesla, as Model 3 production is around the corner. Along with this, Tesla has ramped up marketing, continues to report a speed up in production (with fewer quality issues), and is even listing available inventory vehicles on its website.
Having the inventory vehicles available (testers and loaners mostly) on the road, along with assuring that stores are prepared to execute test drives, should drive the deliveries up from Q2, something not consistently in place during the quarter.
In the end, it comes down to whether or not the company “is” consistently upping production, and also, how much of that is specifically Model X vehicles. Tesla claims to be hitting 2,000 overall builds a week at of the end of the second quarter. Also, at the end of Q2, Tesla had nearly doubled the number of orders “in transit”, when compared to Q1.
Motley Fool’s analyst expects, if everything falls into place as predicted, Tesla could deliver well over 20,000 vehicles this quarter, compared to 14,400 in the second quarter.
Looking at our own estimates for Model X deliveries already made, the trend is for a decent improvement in this quarter for the US, but a huge pick-up internationally. But in the end, will deliveries be as much as double as the Motley Fool expects?
Lets look at the numbers.
For North America, we had calculated about 1,850 deliveries in month 2 of Q3 (Aug 2016) vs ~1,600 in month 2 of Q2 (May 2016) – about a 15% gain month-over-month; and ~2,600 delivered through the first two months. Given the way Tesla historically delivers strong in the last month of a quarter, a final number just north of 5,000 Model X deliveries in North America seems realistic.
However, via international country registration data (ex-Asia) we could find only about 65 Model X deliveries outside North America in Q2 (essentially nothing), whereas that number was surpassed already in July alone. More importantly is what is to come, specifically a couple thousand units appear to be en route (via what we can glean from production and shipping data) globally for delivery this quarter, beginning mostly in very late August and into September. How many will arrive, get through the “Euro-production” dance and actually be delivered by September 30th, 2016? That is the question.
Will Tesla deliver between 8,500 and 10,500 Model X SUVs in Q3 globally as suggested by the Motley Fool in Q3? From the data we have seen, we think not. We just can’t get to that high a number no matter how much we message the data we have seen.
Will Tesla deliver 20,000 or more EVs overall in Q3? We think so, as the Model S delivery curve has been strong thus far this quarter.
Basically, in pegging Model X deliveries between 8,500 and 10,500 and 20,000+ EVs overall, the Motley Fool is suggesting a near 50-50 split in deliveries between the S & X; and while production may indeed have been close to an equal split at the end of Q2, and for most weeks in Q3, there is more than a little lag time for that kind of production reality to hit sales.
Putting current production splits between the two EVs aside, the Model S has unquestionably built a substantial lead on the Model X in sales globally through the first two months of Q3, and certainly also has a lot more existing inventory (most made up of demos, loaners and abandoned orders) already built up and available to be purchased at your local Tesla store today than that of the Model X.
Source: The Motley Fool