Analyst Predicts Tesla Model X Deliveries Will Soar This Quarter


Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X

Partly due to the progressive increase in Tesla Model X production, third quarter deliveries are expected to increase drastically. Although the Model X has seen rather low sales numbers thus far, Motley Fool’s analyst sees a change coming.

Estimated Tesla Model X Deliveries via The Motley Fool

Estimated Tesla Model X Deliveries via The Motley Fool

With demand reaching far beyond deliveries, Motley Fool states 35,000 original reservation orders were made for the Model X, and just 7,200 deliveries through June (Q4 2015 – 206, Q1 2016 – 2,400, and Q2 2016- 4,638), so there is no question that more vehicles still need to be delivered.

Quickly is the key for Tesla, as Model 3 production is around the corner. Along with this, Tesla has ramped up marketing, continues to report a speed up in production (with fewer quality issues), and is even listing available inventory vehicles on its website.

Having the inventory vehicles available (testers and loaners mostly) on the road, along with assuring that stores are prepared to execute test drives, should drive the deliveries up from Q2, something not consistently in place during the quarter.

In the end, it comes down to whether or not the company “is” consistently upping production, and also, how much of that is specifically Model X vehicles. Tesla claims to be hitting 2,000 overall builds a week at of the end of the second quarter. Also, at the end of Q2, Tesla had nearly doubled the number of orders “in transit”, when compared to Q1.

Motley Fool’s analyst expects, if everything falls into place as predicted, Tesla could deliver well over 20,000 vehicles this quarter, compared to 14,400 in the second quarter.

Can The Model X Sell Upwards Of 10,000 in Q3 Globally? We Think Not...but the Model certainly can.

Can The Model X Sell Upwards Of 10,000 in Q3 Globally? We Think Not…but the Model S certainly can.

Editor’s Note:

Looking at our own estimates for Model X deliveries already made, the trend is for a decent improvement in this quarter for the US, but a huge pick-up internationally.  But in the end, will deliveries be as much as double as the Motley Fool expects?

Lets look at the numbers.

For North America, we had calculated about 1,850 deliveries in month 2 of Q3 (Aug 2016) vs ~1,600 in month 2 of Q2 (May 2016) – about a 15% gain month-over-month; and ~2,600 delivered through the first two months.  Given the way Tesla historically delivers strong in the last month of a quarter, a final number just north of 5,000 Model X deliveries in North America seems realistic.

However, via international country registration data (ex-Asia) we could find only about 65 Model X deliveries outside North America in Q2 (essentially nothing), whereas that number was surpassed already in July alone.  More importantly is what is to come, specifically a couple thousand units appear to be en route (via what we can glean from production and shipping data) globally for delivery this quarter, beginning mostly in very late August and into September. How many will arrive, get through the “Euro-production” dance and actually be delivered by September 30th, 2016?  That is the question.

Bottom line:

Will Tesla deliver between 8,500 and 10,500 Model X SUVs in Q3 globally as suggested by the Motley Fool in Q3?  From the data we have seen, we think not.  We just can’t get to that high a number no matter how much we message the data we have seen.

Will Tesla deliver 20,000 or more EVs overall in Q3?  We think so, as the Model S delivery curve has been strong thus far this quarter.

Basically, in pegging Model X deliveries between 8,500 and 10,500 and 20,000+ EVs overall, the Motley Fool is suggesting a near 50-50 split in deliveries between the S & X; and while production may indeed have been close to an equal split at the end of Q2, and for most weeks in Q3, there is more than a little lag time for that kind of production reality to hit sales.

Putting current production splits between the two EVs aside, the Model S has unquestionably built a substantial lead on the Model X in sales globally through the first two months of Q3, and certainly also has a lot more existing inventory (most made up of demos, loaners and abandoned orders) already built up and available to be purchased at your local Tesla store today than that of the Model X.

Source: The Motley Fool 

Categories: Tesla


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14 Comments on "Analyst Predicts Tesla Model X Deliveries Will Soar This Quarter"

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Soar, Falcon Wing, Soar!

Best comment! I love it!

Tesla Motors Club stats shows just 367 Model X deliveries to Europe so far in 2016.

The first really sizeable Model X European delivery was made just this August to Norway with 168 cars.

This site contains historic Tesla sales data for Europe, the U.S. and Asia-Pacific as far back as 2012.

Yes, indeed. Tesla just landed its first real ship full of them (Xs) at port in late August, so the rush into Europe is happening now.

They always reach Norway (and other seemingly some other neighboring Scandinavian countries) very quickly/first due to the need to NOT do the EU “local production compliance dance” in Tilburg…where they basically re-assemble vechicles “locally” to qualify for exemption on import taxes.

Difficult to split out a hard figure on it, but we counted upwards of about ~2,000 units out of Fremont that could land in Europe before the end of Q3, so the potential/expectation for some pretty decent numbers on the Model X in Europe for September is definitely there.

Not EU members: Norway and Iceland.

EU Members: Sweden,Denmark and Finland.

But Iceland has no Tesla stores. Icelanders buy their Teslas in The Netherlands and arrange shipping themselves or buy through grey market dealer. So Norwegians are the only ones that escape the Dutch EU tariff dance.

Tesla has perhaps a backlog of 5,000 or so Model X orders/deliveries already scheduled for Europe.

So, my guess is that in September we should see some “feel good” European sales numbers from Tesla as the company strives to make guidance, especially since Model S sales in Europe are down for the year from 2015.

For sure they have a large order backlog still for Europe.

I am only commenting on the Euro-product we seen starting to be built at the end of Q2/early Q3 that could theoretically be registered as sales in Europe during this quarter.

On average it takes about ~8 weeks to move from production in Fremont, CA, through the shipping process, to a landed and completed European sale.

Would you please clarify “inventory”?

Tesla can’t afford inventory – certainly not at the level that dealerships keep. What I see on their site are test-drive vehicles and/or loaners with about 50 miles on them, being sold as-new at a very modest discount and full manufacturer’s warranty.

I also see a generous list of CPO vehicles, but that’s the used market…not an inventory of new vehicles from the factory waiting for an owner.

It certainly is strange to see this article claiming “Having the inventory vehicles available and on the road… should drive the deliveries up from Q2.”

Inventory cars available for sale from Tesla stores include only the following:

1. Demo units

2. Service center loaners

3. Abandoned orders (and I would guess a lot of those, possibly most, are assigned to the above two categories)

For accounting purposes, Tesla also counts as “inventory” those cars which are being shipped to the buyer, but are not yet paid for. Obviously those wouldn’t be listed as available for sale.

Anybody know what percentage of Tesla’s production are demo units and service loaners? I’d guess that wouldn’t be more than 1-2%. The idea that sales of what is being called “inventory” here would actually have a significant impact on sales numbers… well, I just don’t see how that could be possible.

Desperate stock pushers finding them self deep in red.
Tesla death-dropped 30 $ in a few days without any resistance.

STRIKE! Counter-Cat!?

“death-dropped” ?!?!

You short-selling serial Tesla bashers should re-start the infamous “Tesla Death Watch” blog. That was fun reading… in that the claims and assertions it made were sooooo biased that the blog was downright funny at times.

Why, oh why, is an investor blog post from Motley Fool being highlighted here at InsideEVs? MF may not be as bad as Seeking Alpha, but it’s not much better, either.

A blog post by a Tesla stock pumper won’t be negative, like one from a Tesla basher, but it won’t be much more objective or balanced, either.

This sort of article drags down the quality and utility of reading InsideEVs. I hope we won’t see another like it.

Just my opinion, of course.

In Norway, as other electric cars and hybrids came to the market in the last two years, Tesla sales are down a lot from 2015 and 2014 (the best year). But more importantly for the 50% down is the change between currencies as Norwegian Krone had lost something as 50% against US dollar since 2014 (mostly because of petrol prices are down too), so Tesla cars cost a lot more there and now.
The interesting thing is that in August Tesla X deliveries almost equal S deliveries (168 X and 170 S in August, against 23 and 43 S in July), and the trend seems to Tesla X deliveries being higher than Tesla S deliveries (19 X to 10 s in the two first days of September).