Analyst Predicts Ford Will Go “All-In” On Electric Vehicles

2 months ago by Domenick Yoney 49

Ford Focus Electric plugged in

The next six months could be “extremely eventful.”

When you think of prolific electric vehicle manufactures, Ford is not the first name that comes to mind. It’s likely not even the second. Maybe third, but probably not. This could change soon, if its recent moves are being interpreted properly. Morgan Stanley automotive sector analyst Adam Jonas released a note yesterday that says he believes the company under recently installed CEO Jim Hackett to be “all in” on EVs, and that “We expect the next 6 months to be extremely eventful.” We certainly hope so.

Today’s Ford Focus Electric utilizes a 24 kWh battery – new 2017 edition begins production in November

Ford has exactly one all-electric vehicle in its lineup: the Ford Focus Electric. It’s enjoying an bit of an increase in sales this year, after boosting its battery up to 33.5 kWh and getting DC fast-charging abilities.

By the end of July it had sold 1,206 units, up considerably, in a relative sort of way, from the total of 901 examples in all of 2016 (and 505 sold through July 2016).

Still, compared to something like, say, the VW e-Golf — with a similar price and small battery size (24.2 kwh – but soon to go up to 35.8 kWh) — which had sold 2,195 autos by July’s end, it’s pretty anemic. Put it up against the 8,531 Nissan Leafs from the segment leader (with similar battery/range numbers) and its relevance, or lack thereof, comes into sharper, ahem, focus.

The Blue Oval does fairly decent trade with its PHEV models, the Fusion Energi and C-Max Energi (5,760 and 5,224 units this year, respectively), but even those numbers are less than half of its main competitors like the Chevy Volt or Toyota Prius Prime. And sure, Ford made an announcement about investing  $4.5 billion in electrification a couple years back, but that is modest money that would just create more hybrid and Energi derivatives of existing models and just one new all-electric, a promising-sounding 300-mile crossover, sometime in 2020. Clearly, Ford has been snoozing and losing in the EV arena, content to rake in big money from its gasoline-powered pickups and SUVs while keeping its eye towards the future half shut.

Now under new management, Jonas thinks that this prior funding commitment will shift away from hybridization to pure electrification. Says he:

“We expect Ford to go ‘all-in’ on EVs. With an emphasis on pure EVs. Hybrids? Not so much. Prior management was vague with how its $4.5b investment in ‘electrification’ would be allocated. We are hopeful for a significantly upgraded level of transparency, given the pace of change in EV adoption and expenditure worldwide.”

But, even the analyst’s enthusiastic expectations are tempered by investor’s unwillingness to look further than 90 days ahead. He continues:

“We expect Ford’s next strategy to be more open to partnerships, new structures and entities, and a far greater emphasis on all-electric powertrains. However, we are not convinced investors are prepared for the required sacrifice to near term profit.”

Speaking of partnerships and new structures, we’d be remiss not to mention that Ford passed recently on a chance to take over Lucid Motors. Without knowing exactly what it might have gained from the sale and the price tag attached, it’s hard to judge the decision, but it struck us as one way for the Detroit automaker to get into the game without having to build its own battery and software specialist teams from practically scratch. It also occurred to us that the Lucid Air might have some very Lincoln-esque qualities about it that could nudge that brand upwards.

We’ll try to keep Jonas’ admonition about the next six months in mind as we continue to watch for what EV moves Ford decides to make in the remainder of 2017. Perhaps the installation of Sherif Marakby into the position of vice president of Autonomous Vehicles and Electrification might yield some positive fruit in time for the 2018 auto show season. One thing is sure, with its market cap now surpassed by tiny Tesla, which makes a fraction of the vehicles, the pressure is on to prove that its future is one of growth.

Source: Electrek

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49 responses to "Analyst Predicts Ford Will Go “All-In” On Electric Vehicles"

  1. ffbj says:

    Yeah, I think I’ll just turn away from Ford and not watch. Just as I am not a big fan of horror movies and yelling at the screen, ‘Watch Out!’ which does no good.

    1. mx says:

      I have to thank Ford. Because of the Pathetic no-update policy of the CMAX, I had to learn about leasing.

      Driving the impressive BMW i3 REX now.
      Absolutely no regrets.

      Thanks Ford!

      1. Texas FFE says:

        I tried to buy an i3 a couple of times but never could get over the $50,000 sticker price. I’m never buying anything that burns gas again so I wouldn’t even consider an i3 REV. The wallet sized instrument panel and the rearvwheel drive were also turn offs for me.

  2. CDAVIS says:

    Ford in 2009:

    “…Ford Motor Company says as many as one in four cars it sells by 2020 will be electrified…”

    source:
    https://www.wired.com/2009/10/ford-evs/
    ——–

    Had Ford kept true to that prediction made by Ford 18 years ago Tesla today would likely not be more valuable than Ford.

    1. ffbj says:

      I think that was 8 years ago, not 18. But good point. Talk is Cheap! Ford talks a good game.

      1. CDAVIS says:

        Thanks for the typo catch… meant “8”.

    2. SparkEV says:

      Ford attempted EV earlier. They were called “Think”, lots of bicycles and street legal “golf carts”. Maybe they were thinking similar in 2009.

      As for being more valuable than Tesla, unless Ford drove the charging infrastructure effort, they’d be nowhere close. In fact, it could’ve made early death of EV by legacy makers if they saw all the clogging like we have today with CCS, driving Tesla stock prices even higher.

    3. L'amata says:

      If These Clunker ICE Promoters, were really serious about EV’s They would “start 0ff” by installing @ Least 4 to 6 or more charging stations in every one of their stealerships on the Planet Before they even start talking about Electric cars “PERRIOD” .((They can do it OVERNITE)).This is Vaporware because THEY ARE IN THE PARTS & SERVICE BUSINESS , Don’t let them Kid You..ICE Has 2000 moving parts EV’s have 200 moving parts…Henry Ford was Quoted as saying., “I can give away every car I Build and “And make my Profit On Parts & service”….

  3. Kevin Cowgill says:

    I expect a full report in 6 months on the spectacular progress Ford has made in it’s commitment to electrification.
    I also expect to win a monstrously yuge jackpot on my next Vegas vacation.
    I can’t loose😁

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      “I can’t loose😁”

      Have you tried a muscle relaxant? 😉

      But I think you meant you can’t lose.

  4. SparkEV says:

    I thought FFE has level 2 DC, not level 3. Does any car have level 3 DC, yet?

    1. Spoonman. says:

      Yes, the 2017s have DCFC standard.

    2. Domenick Yoney says:

      There seems to be a variance in opinion about what level 3 charging refers to, so I’ve removed reference to the level in the text.

      Generally, though. Level 1 is 110-120 volts from a typical wall socket. Level 2 is from a 240 V setup, usually AC.

      I’ve generally thought of DC charging as level 3 with output levels starting at around 40 kW, but some contend it level 3 charging requires an output of at least 90 kW.

      Need to look into this more.

      1. alohart says:

        DC Level 1 is up to 36 kW. DC Level 2 is 36 – 90 kW. DC Level 3 is not a formal standard at this time according to Wikipedia. It will almost certainly be >90 kW with maybe its upper voltage level increased from 450 to 600 V. But with Porsche talking about 800 V DC charging, there might need to be a DC Level 4 defined.

      2. Texas FFE says:

        Quit posting mis-information!

        SAE J1772 AC Level 1 is 120V and is limited to 2 kW, SAE J1772 AC Level 2 is 240V and is limited to 10 kW, SAE J1772 DC Level 1 is 500V and limited to 25 kW and SAE J1772 DC Level 2 is 500V and is limited to 100 kW. There is currently no such thing as SAE J1772 DC Level 3 in the United States. People call anything that’s 400V+ DC Level 3 even though they have no technical reason to do so.

        1. Domenick Yoney says:

          Whether or not the SAE has declared a standard and given the term “Level 3” its blessing is beside the point.

          It’s an expression used widely today, even by companies that produce charging equipment and advocacy organizations like Plug-In America.

          1. Texas FFE says:

            Yes, the whole industry is painting itself into a corner and is going to end up with egg on it’s face. There are already 2 types of SAE J1172 DC chargers out there, Level 1 and Level 2, both are called Level 3 and CHAdeMO that has nothing to do with the SAE J1772 Level designations is also called Level 3. What is the industry going to call the real SAE J1772 DC Level 3 standard when it comes out.

            By the way, there IS a SAE j1772 AC Level 3 standard. It’s a 240V, 3-phase standard that’s only used in Europe. Calling all DC chargers Level 3 is just confusion created by a reporting segment that doesn’t care about technical accuracy.

            1. ffbj says:

              Yeah, it does confuse me when interchange terms like that.
              Maybe it evolves from well if L2 is good then L3 must be better, so let’s call if L3.

        2. Bill Howland says:

          “AC L2 is 240 VOlts and limited to 10 kw…”

          Now thats just dumb.. Clipper creek and others manufacture wall boxes that have L2 J1772 connectors and provide 11.5 kw through just under 20kw. And most wall boxes necessarily must work down to around 190 volts.

          Of course, like little kids, the SAE keeps changing its mind for the worse. That’s why many manufacturers still call fast charging L3, along with many users since the old nomenclature was simpler and more straight-forward.

          Under the ‘new’ nomenclature – they arbitrarily dump all higher level AC single and three phase charging (where there are multitudinous connections and wiring systems available) as AC level 3. They will HAVE to change their minds again on that one since it is currently so brain-dead.

          Few use Level 1 beyond 1.4 kw since it is not easily available, and not legal without a dedicated circuit, at least in the states – (12 amps is the max allowed in the states for a continuously loaded (3 or more hours operation from non-dedicated outlets) – hence the 16 amps from the ‘SAE standard’ is almost never used (CC sells one slow selling wallbox with the capability) but few utilize it since a 190-250 volt wallbox is usually more economical with less percentage pressure drop to it).

          1. Bill Howland says:

            TO show how SILLY this whole standards thing is : IF Level 2 AC is ‘now’ deemed 10 kw or less from the Wet-Dreaming SAE big experts, one might legitmately ask what planet they have been on? Per TexasFFE:

            “…Texas FFE

            August 24, 2017 at 11:28 am

            Quit posting mis-information!

            SAE J1772 AC Level 1 is 120V and is limited to 2 kW, SAE J1772 AC Level 2 is 240V and is limited to 10 kW,…”

            J1772 USED to be limited to 30 amps (in fact, this is why the Roadster had a TSL-01 connector – since they said they wanted to go more than 30 (a mistake in my view, but whatever. – If the roadster had a standardized connection I wouldn’t have spent many a february morning with a trouble light and inverter trying to defrost the troublesome TSL-01).

            Years later the J1772 was ‘enhanced’ to 80 amperes, which coincidentally some Teslas in the past could use.

            Neither 30 nor 80 amps is remotely anywhere near this ’10 kw dictum’.

            1. Texas FFE says:

              Actually prior to 2009 the SAE J1772 AC Level 2 charger was limited to 32 amps at 240V which is only 7.2 kW. In 2009 the SAE J1772 AC Level 2 standard was raised to 80 amps or 19.2 kW at 240V. The charger in my garage is 32 amps and I did see 80 amp SAE J1772 AC Level 2 chargers on the Clipper Creek website but I don’t know of any car that can take more than 32 amps using the SAE J1772 AC Level 2 standard.

              The Tesla models can take more than 32 amps of 240V power but Tesla models are not designed around the SAE J1772 AC Level 2 standard.

              1. Bill Howland says:

                Sorry, wrong, wrong, and wrong.

                1). 32 amps @ 240 volts (>.99 pf) is around 7.7 kw.

                2). 30 amps was the peak – although then you come up with the 7.2 kw figure.

                3). Tesla roadsters with a j1772 adapter charge at 70 amperes.
                3B). The included public station adapter included with all Teslas is an 80 ampere rated J1772 adapter. ‘Dual Charger’ S’s can charge TODAY at 80 amps from an 80 amp, j1772 wallbox, along with other manufacturers.

      3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “Level 3” charging does refer to DC fast charging, yes.

        But it’s now generally considered an outdated term, because L1 and L2 charging refer to charging at a specific voltage, whereas DCFC can be at any of a wide varieties of kW ratings or voltages or amperages.

  5. jim stack says:

    I leased their FORD Focus Electric FFE and the battery was super with no capacity lose in the 3 HOT years I drove it 24K miles in the Phoenix area.
    Now having DC Fast Charge is great. Areas to improve are the Air Cond efficiency which was not good. It would drop 30-40 miles or range when I turned on the AC. My wife also hated the ingress where she would always bump her knees. The screen and data was also weak. The map nav was out of date and a new update was $150 bucks. I used my smart phone instead.

    1. TedFredrick says:

      You don’t need maps is you can only venture 30 miles from home. I have an FFE and never use the maps

    2. mx says:

      The BMW i3 Guess-o-meter drops 10 miles of range when you turn on the AC. In reality, it’s between 5-10 miles. Just thought you’d like a comparison.

  6. MAF says:

    “it struck us as one way for the Detroit automaker to get into the game without having to build its own battery and software specialist teams from practically scratch.” Actually, Ford has *hundreds* of engineers working on batteries, software, and every aspect of electrified vehicles.

  7. Kosh says:

    Let me guess… it will be called the… “Model E” ?

  8. Lou Grinzo says:

    This is intriguing, but I’m not betting my lunch money on Ford delivering.

    For me, the Big Three of EV Disappointment for years have been Honda, Toyota, and Ford. And I keep saying that other companies seeing success with PHEVs and BEVs will drag some of the more reluctant companies into the market. I still believe that to be true, so I’m hoping Ford has finally had their epiphany about the inevitable rise of EVs and the urgency of getting in the game in a much bigger way.

  9. Texas FFE says:

    I’m on my second FFE and I’ve loved both of them. I would probably still be driving my first FFE in it had come with CCS fast charging but there weren’t any CCS stations around when I bought my first FFE. The price discounts make the FFE very attractive to me.

    I’m really looking forward to learning more about the 300 mile BEV SUV from Ford but I really don’t expect any news within the next six months. Ford has never been very transparent on thier products. I don’t expect to hear anything significant about Ford electric vehicle offerings until mid 2019 but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if I do.

    1. jm says:

      My sincerest congratulations on getting past the Ford dealership gauntlet not once but twice!

      I am loathe to admit it, but I am actually going to test drive the FFE today . . . my first look at a Ford product in 31 years. I have been lured by the siren song of $2739 drive off with $139 per month.

      Before I’m even down there, one dealer is now at $3500 DO and $199/mo while the other is at $4300 DO with $139/month. I’ll still look at the FFE out of curiousity but I guess I’ll still be keeping my day 1 Model 3 reservation even though it will be 2X the total cost. It’ll be worth it just to avoid the dealership “experience” that we all know and love.

      Hmmm . . . maybe that those numbers I should go back to the BMW dealership and look at the i3. But then again, the last time I talked to them, part of the dealership add-on was $50 to fill the gas tank on the i3 BEV . . . It just never ends.

      1. Texas FFE says:

        Ford does have some great lease deals on the FFE right now but you will probably have to really shop around to find a dealer that doesn’t try to jack up the price somehow. I actually bought used even though I do try to lease a few times. My 2017 FFE was Ford “Certified” and not only did I get a car a few months old half of new car MSRP but I got a 66 month loan at 1.9%.

        1. jm says:

          OMGB!! Get to the dealer today and the car has 8 miles range in it. Maybe you can tell me if that’s why the AC wouldn’t work. It was cool (not cold) when we pulled out of the lot and 2 mins later was no cooling whatsover.

          I’ve really tried to do the “right thing.” EV, Made in Amurrica, powered by solar panels on the roof. Guess I’m waiting for my Model 3.

          1. Texas FFE says:

            Sounds like your dealer does not know how to sell electric cars, the car should have been charged. Ford doesn’t do a very good job of selling the FFE so I’m not surprised but not buying an electric vehicle just because it needs a charge does sound pretty superficial. I hope you have better luck with your Model 3 and I hope the Model 3 striker price doesn’t hurt too much.

            Before I bought my first FFE I test drove a BMW i3 and a Nissan Leaf. I had owned Fords before and I just like the feel of the Fords but I was also able to get a very good price on my FFEs. The FFE does have some short comings but it also has some features, like power leather seats and standard CCS charging, that other electric vehicles do not have.

  10. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    From Ford I’d like to see a 225 mile F150EV Quad cab that charges on the Tesla SC that can also use the Tesla Chad adapter. That way it opens up waaaaay more DCFC’s for the truck.

    1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

      ……and 4WD.

  11. Scott says:

    What?! Shoving a battery in the trunk doesn’t make an EV program?

  12. Ron M says:

    Thanks to China the aoto manufacturer are going to build electric cars sooner than later. Manufacturers complaints that they can’t meet the timeline China has for electric vehicles falls on deaf ears. In America auto companies and fossil fuel lobbies would like to obstruct progress for 20 years.

  13. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    Adam Jonas is the idiot who, five months ago, predicted that Tesla would deliver only 2000 Model 3’s by the end of 2017 (see link below).

    Not 20,000… just 2000.

    Financial advising firm E.F. Hutton advertises “When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen.” But when Adam Jonas speaks, they just point and laugh! 😛

    I have no doubt that Jonas is just as accurate with his prediction about Ford. 🙄

    http://insideevs.com/analyst-predicts-model-3-production-low/

    1. William says:

      +1 Pushi on the fact that A J is a complete More1, and also a total blathering Idi8!

  14. Chris O says:

    LOL, Adam “Tesla will do only do 2000 Model 3s this year” Jones rears his ugly head again with more nonsense. The big three make their money with trucks, plug-ins are for compliance. That’s not going to change anytime soon.

  15. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “Ford passed recently on a chance to take over Lucid Motors. Without knowing exactly what it might have gained from the sale and the price tag attached, it’s hard to judge the decision, but it struck us as one way for the Detroit automaker to get into the game without having to build its own battery and software specialist teams from practically scratch.”

    What evidence is there that Lucid employs anyone with expertise in either software or batteries? Perhaps they do, but I think it’s much more likely that they just bought some off-the=self batteries to build their two concept cars, or perhaps they even paid some company to put the battery packs together for them.

    As has been pointed out by many people including myself, there is simply no evidence that Lucid has any IP worth buying. They have one or two concept cars with simply gorgeous interiors, so it might be worth it for Ford or some other auto maker to poach Lucid’s interior design team.

    But Lucid hasn’t demonstrated they have competitive EV tech in either batteries or software.

    1. ffbj says:

      I think the bean-counters nipped that one in the bud. I think they could have pursued something with Lucid if just to get off snide.

    2. Domenick Yoney says:

  16. PHEVfan says:

    I’m betting the next thing out of Ford is a PHEV SUV/CUV which they missed their chance on 5-8 years ago with the Escape (cancelled the Hybrid in 2013). Then the model E will follow in 2019 or 2020.
    Hey – somebody’s got to be optimistic!

  17. Don Zenga says:

    Ford is waiting to see the specs and price of Leaf-2. After this they will set the price of FFE.

    And they presume that Model 3 production will not ramp up soon.

  18. Just_Chris says:

    Ford have a serious problem. They need to keep selling in the EU or face a pretty big reduction in their size but their current emissions are around 115-118 g.CO2/km in the EU. This is pretty ok but it is largely because they sell some very good diesels. They need to get to less than 100g.CO2/km by 2021 – that is a problem that will require a PHEV Fiesta and Focus, probably also BEV’s in the mix also. They can still survive if they miss the target but with Renault-Nissan and Toyota both being on track to hit the target and the Germans managing to diddle the system to give them a slightly less stringent target Ford really need to do something dramatic or they’ll struggle. Not as much as Fiat or the remains of GM-EU but they have a hill to climb.

  19. Texas FFE says:

    I read all the negative comments on the Ford Focus Electric and I just don’t get it. I don’t consider myself a Ford loyalist but I have owned 2 FFEs. I like the “feel” of the FFE plus I always felt I have got good value for the price I paid and I have had very little trouble with my FFEs.

    It’s true that the FFE is not a purpose built electric vehicle but there are advantages to being based on a popular platform. The FFE has true independent rear suspension with an anti-sway bar, not a dual purpose torque arm like the Bolt EV has. Some of the technology of the FFE is getting dated but it does have standard CCS charging and a powered leather seat option which would be considered a luxury item on almost any car.

    There is always going to be something more you want in a car but I’m pretty happy with my 2017 FFE. I plan to sell my 2013 FFE and I hope the next owner finds it as enjoyable an entry level EV as I did. I may eventually upgrade my 2017 FFE but that will probably be many happy EV years from now.

  20. bennyd says:

    Couldn’t be happier with our newly leased 2017 Ford Focus Electric. Have been waiting for the day for an electric car that suits budget and performance. We have driven an ICE Focus for the last 10 years and this was just icing on the cake! EPA is conservatively listed at 115 miles of range and have been getting 120-130 miles using regenerative energy as a priority. well done Ford!

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