Analyst Predicts 5,000 Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In Q4

2 months ago by Steven Loveday 47

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs)

One of the biggest questions in the EV industry right now revolves around how many Tesla Model 3 vehicles will be delivered before the close of the year.

The automaker originally hoped to ramp up production to some 5,000 Model 3s per week by December and 10,000 per week moving forward. However, nothing went as planned, and an early production bottleneck — apparently related to battery manufacturing —  meant that Tesla was only able to deliver about 712 Model 3s thus far.

Tesla Model 3

Inside the Tesla Model 3 LA Auto Show (Image Credit: Tom Moloughney/InsideEVs)

Of these ~700 cars, 390 came in Q4 (with 145 being delivered in October and 345 in November). So, how many will Tesla put in customers hands during the month of December?

We do know that production has accelerated. We can only assume that the bottleneck has been addressed and taken care of. If not completely solved, at least to a degree that is allowing the Silicon Valley electric automaker to crank out cars at some reasonable clip.

Additionally, customer deliveries (non-employee affiliated) have definitely started, and pictures and video footage from holding lots and delivery centers speak to considerable volumes of Model 3 vehicles produced and heading out.

With all of this being said, we still can’t put a finger on a safe estimate, but fortunately, Tesla will report global Q4 sales in the coming days, and we’ll have the answer to our question.

Meanwhile, KeyBanc Capital Markets analysts are estimating around 5,000 Model 3 deliveries for Q4. This means that Tesla needs to deliver some 4,600 in December alone. Keep in mind that this number is way down from the firm’s early estimate of 15,000.

Interestingly, KeyBanc talked with Tesla salespeople at 18 California stores before making the estimate. The firm wrote:

“We talked to stores in California doing as many as a dozen per week with around 10 being the average, and we estimate stores outside of California were doing something closer to half a dozen per week.”

Hmm … a dozen a week with the average being 10. Let’s multiply this by 18 stores and ~4.5 weeks. We’re getting 810. Tesla has over 100 stores and galleries in the U.S., although many of these locations are surely not delivering vehicles. Let’s just pretend for a minute that they are delivering from every single location nationwide (some states don’t even allow it and most deliveries are primarily happening at the California locations). But, nonetheless, 100 stores at a half a dozen per week would add up to 2,700, plus the above 810.

If this impossible perfect-world scenario could somehow materialize, the magic Q4 number would still be under 4,000. But, who knows really …

Source: Reuters

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47 responses to "Analyst Predicts 5,000 Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In Q4"

  1. Another Euro point of view says:

    Number of Model 3 deliveries in Q4 2017 is not important as all reasonably informed people should know by now that there was a big production bottle neck this year-end. No, what matters is how fast they can reach a 5000 Model 3 (quality) production rate in Q1 2008. By quality production I mean not like right now (a commenter at Electrek made reference to a Facebook site (“Tesla Model 3 road trip” I think) where a Model 3 owner reports a cross NA trip in his new Model 3, there are computer glitches, weird noises all the time, it never stops). Tesla can’t afford that with Model 3, I hope they understand this.

    1. Another Euro point of view says:

      the 5000 production rate for Q1 2018 is per week of course…

      1. Ziv says:

        5k a week may not happen this quarter, or next, but who knows what will happen in late 2018.

        1. Dee says:

          5K a week was supposed to happen now! But has been rescheduled by 3 months to end of 1st quarter of 2018.. BTW

  2. Mister G says:

    GO TESLA GO DESTROY DIRTY GAS GUZZLERS AND DIESELS LOL CONNECT THE DOTS ON CLEAN AIR WAKE UP FOLKS
    Remember it’s not the amount of cars delivered its the number of gigafactories being built in 5 years.

  3. scott franco says:

    I suspect that the number is still under 1,000. My test is if they show demos at the dealerships. Why would you not put a demo car at the dealerships (as they did with the X).

    If you made 5,000 cars, putting a demo at each of 100 or so dealers would not be an issue.

    1. Doggydogworld says:

      Putting demos at dealers would hurt Model S sales. Why take a hit to current sales just to get more reservations for a car that’s on back-order for a year?

      1. Mark C says:

        There are likely many reservation holders that will not actually confirm an order that commits {the reservation deposit of $1k + order deposit of another $2.5k,} $3,500 that is non-refundable when the order is placed. Many who want the car want to drive it or, at the very least, sit in it.

        1. William says:

          The up close and personal, hands on “sit”, will be where the “non-refundable…order is placed”.

          No truer words have been spoken, about a New Brand, and New Vehicle, for many first time BEV buyers. The Model 3 purchase commitment requires, what may be a significant capital outlay, for many of these first time Pure BEV buyers.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          “There are likely many reservation holders that will not actually confirm an order that commits [unless they can] drive it or, at the very least, sit in it.”

          Right. While Doggydogworld is correct to say that putting a demo unit on every Tesla showroom floor would hurt Model S/X sales, at the same time there ought to be a unit available at every Tesla store and/or service center to let reservation holders take a test drive.

        3. scott franco says:

          Perhaps because I (and the rest of us) are watching Tesla so closely, I don’t think I would confirm my M3 order until I see the car and get some idea that they are not in beta production, like if they are making 1000 a week or so (and they are in beta production, whatever they like to call it).

          I want to back Tesla, but I also don’t want a lemon that I have significant amounts of trouble with.

          So now the choice will come down to taking the invitation or opting to wait or leave the reservation queue, knowing well that I might not make it back this decade.

          I’m about 50,000 in the queue, so I think (hope) it does not become an issue.

    2. eltosho says:

      You put demo cars in stores if you want make more sales. The currently have more sales than they can handle. The last thing they want is more noise during the production ramp up.

      1. wavelet says:

        “You put demo cars in stores if you want make more sales. The currently have more sales than they can handle.”
        No they don’t. They have <1000 sales so far.
        Reservations aren't binding orders, let alone sales, and are basically no different than signing up to be on an email interest list.

        Many if not most of those 100K's of reservation holders aren't EV fans, and have never driven one, and of course none of them has driven the Model 3. I very much doubt more than 5% of the first 50K on the reservation list would commit $45 (min. cost of large-battery version w/dest. fee) sight unseen.
        Unlike most $30 consumer consumer goods, the car isn't returnable if you simply decide you don't like it.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          “Reservations aren’t binding orders, let alone sales, and are basically no different than signing up to be on an email interest list.”

          Perhaps the difference between $0 and the $1000 in “earnest money” that Tesla Model 3 reservers (reservationists?) have to put up isn’t significant to you, but I assure you that thousand dollars is quite significant to many or most people.

          1. Terawatt says:

            Well yeah, but he is still absolutely right. It’s not accurate, and therefore dishonest, to speak of reservations as if they were sales, or even orders.

          2. Asak says:

            I think the reality is that most of those who put down the thousand could easily afford it and it wasn’t much of a hardship. On top of that the price of the Model 3 currently available is going to price out most people.

    3. Recoil says:

      Here is Dallas they have a demo that you can look at but not test drive.

      1. Jeanyes says:

        Where is this Model 3? Northpark?

      2. scott franco says:

        Good. I find it strange that here within rock throwing distance of the factory that I cannot go see a demo of the car.

  4. Six Electrics says:

    5000? No way. I’d say more like 1,500.

    1. Dav8or says:

      Likely around 1200 or so, but who cares? I’m not sure why everyone is so atwitter about how many Model 3s have or haven’t been delivered and sold in the forth quarter. It doesn’t really matter one way or another.

      The cars will get built sooner or later. Even if they never make 5000 a week, they will get built, people will buy them, many will patiently wait as long as it takes and others will jump ship, but the Model 3 will make it’s mark and Tesla investors have made it pretty clear they are willing to give Elon and Tesla whatever time to see it through.

      Definitely unusual times for the car business.

      1. Terawatt says:

        Of course it matters. If Tesla has been speaking truth about why the numbers were so far from what was promised, but that bottleneck has been addressed, then it looks as if Tesla hasn’t just made up the whole story and their promises about turning a profit on the Model 3 sometime soon become more plausible. If they keep delivering only a tiny fraction of the targets and keep blaming new bottlenecks, it looks they either lied to everyone or don’t know what they’re doing.

        So it’s obviously of the very greatest interest to see how the ramp-up proceeds. Unlike what you seem to think, “eventually” isn’t good enough. Even Tesla doesn’t have access to infinitely replenishing resources, and must sooner or later generate the cash for its own growth.

  5. ffbj says:

    Maybe 4k, and that’s a stretch.

    1. William says:

      +1 ( “stretch” = 500 units + or – )

      1. ffbj says:

        Sure, and for the less numerically inclined an anthropomorphic stretch:
        Bernadette Peters as Circe, in the Armand Assante version of Odysseus.

  6. Nix says:

    Calling the stores was calling the wrong people.

    Tesla is making deliveries directly from the factory, and from a dedicated delivery site, not from stores.

    ______________________

    With that said, Tesla has already stated that they are about a quarter behind on ramp-up. That would put them somewhere around where they were in Sept/Oct in their original ramp-up plan. Sept. guidance was planned for around 1,500, and they didn’t give guidance for Oct. Jumping to 5,000 from under 500 in the previous months would be a HUGE jump in their ramp-up.

    Even if they managed to BUILD 5K Model 3’s in Dec, it would be a challenge to deliver all 5,000.

    1. georgeS says:

      @Nix
      I think what we have here is just another analyst that doesn’t have a clue.

      1. CarGuy says:

        The analyst does have a clue. He is shorting the stock. He knows there is no way they will deliver 5k units in 3rd qtr. He has purposely over inflated the numbers so when they aren’t met the stock price will go down.

        1. MrDoubleb says:

          Exactly! Everyone knows Tesla themselves didn’t expect to resolve the bottleneck until mid December so 5k is completely unrealistic. I wonder why the reporter never called the analyst out on keeping a 15k prediction for q4 until now and even so, only going down to 5k. Clearly NO ONE in their right mind was expecting more than 2k for q4 ever since the last earnings call. What is important though, is that it now appears we have stable continuous production at or above 1k per week.

    2. scott franco says:

      “Calling the stores was calling the wrong people.

      Tesla is making deliveries directly from the factory, and from a dedicated delivery site, not from stores.”

      Buzzzzzzzz!!!! Wrong answer, thank you for playing.

      The store phone system links you back to Tesla headquarters when you hit the “model 3” button, so you ARE talking to the factory.

      1. Nix says:

        Then they are REALLY clueless that they called 18 stores and got forwarded back to the same place and never figured that out.

  7. Ron M says:

    Well in a couple days we’ll know the number of TM3’s sold in 4th quarter. I predicted 2,000 earlier so 5,000 or more would be a big increase to my guess. I hope my number was low.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      I’ll be surprised if it’s as high as 2000. 5000 is clearly unrealistic, as Steven Loveday points out in the article. CarGuy may be correct in guessing that this is just another Tesla stock shorter claiming to be an “analyst”, giving an inflated estimate so that in a few days he can claim Tesla is “under-performing”.

  8. floydboy says:

    3500.

  9. HVACman says:

    2nd hand reports from the Gigafactory is that Tesla didn’t get all 70 hand-build module and pack stations fully together and manned until 3 weeks ago and they are still hand-building all modules and packs. So not likely that in December they could have banged out 5000 working hand-built packs, shipped them to Fremont, incorporated them into 5000 Model 3’s assembled on the line, passed QC, shipped to delivery centers, and got all the financing and paperwork done in-time for Dec. 31 delivery.

    The good news from the same source is that word at the GF to the employees on the hand-build lines is that the automation issues are almost resolved and the automated line may be able to come back online next week.

    With automated module and pack lines working, let’s hope they hit 5000 next month.

    1. Nix says:

      Sorry, doesn’t pass the sniff test.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      2nd hand reports from the Gigafactory is that “Tesla didn’t get all 70 hand-build module and pack stations fully together and manned until 3 weeks ago and they are still hand-building all modules and packs.”

      Please tell me you are joking!

      The surge of hundreds of new TM3s seen in lots awaiting shipment over the past few weeks did not come from building battery packs by hand at the Gigafactory! That kind of production is only possible with genuine mass production.

      Now, perhaps it’s possible that they still are putting a few finishing touches on the packs by hand, but that can’t amount to much per unit, or they never would have been able to get out this kind of volume.

      1. Doggydogworld says:

        HVACMan is passing along very credible info from two separate sources on Electrek. Tesla set up manual assembly stations to get some through-put going while they worked on the troublesome automated assembly cells. A bunch of Panasonic employees helped man the assembly stations.

        This isn’t a few guys hammering and welding. It’s 70 stations performing a couple of delicate assembly stages the robots weren’t handling. This partially-manual pack assembly has been going on for several weeks, explaining the jump in production at Fremont. There are signs the GF will start full-auto pack assembly next week.

        If you want to check out the sources yourself, search for “voluntold” on Electrek.

  10. CarGuy says:

    Agree with you all. 2,000 units would be a great feat. Maybe 5,000 in January.

  11. Mjp462 says:

    My guess is <1,000.

  12. leafowner says:

    I’m thinking around 3000.

  13. Don Zenga says:

    Don’t believe in all this hype of the analysts as they are trying to play with the stocks. Realistic range is 700 – 900 this month.

  14. JP says:

    Awesome! Only 195,000 short of what was promised.

    1. Hauer says:

      You should work on your vocabulary.
      NOTHING was „promised“

  15. Mister G says:

    HOW MANY GIGAFACTORIES IN NEXT 5 YEARS is what matters.

  16. Leeg747 says:

    I was concerned about the tax rebate still available on the model three so I went ahead and bought a model S. On 21 December I picked it up in Richmond Virginia and there was a model three being delivered the same day. I still have my first time model three reservation and since the tax incentive is still available it will likely go to my son

  17. Terawatt says:

    My guesstimate: 2700 delivered in December.

    I hope I’m being too conservative, but I’ll be impressed if they actually managed 5000 – the number they said they’d make in the last week alone…

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