Report: Just 440 Tesla Model 3 Vehicles Produced In Four Months

Tesla Model 3


Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 at Atascadero, CA Supercharging station (via Mark F!)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made it known on repeated occasions that Model 3 production hell is still well underway and he didn’t divulge the vehicle’s production numbers on the recent call.

One would think if numbers were positive, Musk would have been obliged to share. So, we can only assume that ramp up is still not in place. According to Electrek, sources familiar with the situation are reporting that Tesla built about 440 Model 3s thus far.

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3 Production

The only official confirmation we received came at the end of September when the company was found to have built 260 Model 3 vehicles and delivered just ~220.

Based on our sales information, this breaks down to 30 deliveries at July’s handover event, followed by ~75 in August and ~117 in September. Our research put October deliveries at 145, which lines up fairly spot on to this report of 180 more Model 3s being produced over the same time.

Regardless of the exact figures, as we mention in our monthly reports on plg-in sales and in this new report, it’s not a lot of cars. Musk originally guided to over 1,630 in the first three months and then working more quickly toward the goal of 5,000 per week before the close of the year.

Customer (non-employee) deliveries were also supposed to start sometime in October, likely after Tesla surpassed that 1,500 or so mark. None of this has happened, and the company has guided original delivery and production expectations back approximately 3 months.

In the recent days/weeks Tesla Model 3 reservation holders have started to see their estimated delivery window dialed back. In some cases, it seems that three-month window has only rolled back about a month, which is strange since the automaker self-confirmed ~3 months behind. However, we recently reported that this window has been rolled back yet another month, for some early reservation holders. One Model 3 buyer that reserved on day one, currently owns a Tesla, and lives in California, is looking at a January-March 2018 delivery window. That same person had an original window starting in November 2017. This could indicate that customer deliveries may not start until next year.

Perhaps Tesla is just playing it safe. We can only hope that the discovered bottlenecks are actually fixed and Musk’s confidence that the ramp-up will move quickly once it’s underway is true.

Source: Electrek

Categories: Tesla

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153 Comments on "Report: Just 440 Tesla Model 3 Vehicles Produced In Four Months"

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I canceled my order and got a refund as I’m in the UK so we were not going to get right hand drive models till 2019 anyway and at the rate they are going that will actually be 2020 and there are going to be many options for 200mile+ EV’s that can charge at 150kWh+ available in the UK before then. I’m not that fussed about autopilot or accelerating really quickly I just want to drive normally on electric with no range anxiety issues.

So – even before you have another EV Ordered, you just Gave Up?

You seem to either be
– Impatient,
– In need of the Bucks,
– or were just teasing your self with a Model 3 Purchase!

I don’t think the $1,000 I Paid would change much of my overall financial picture at this point, and can’t see much how it would change anyone elses by much either! Particularly since the Car – as I envisioned it for my choices, would add: Long Range ($9,000 – in US$ and Unknown in Canadian $!), Dual Motor (Elon did once say – under $5,000 US$ – but not by how much, Plus Canadian $ Adjustments!), so – how would my impatient cancellation improve my options for Long Range EV’s?

Even if I got a Bolt, Today, it would not compete!

I don’t think cancelling because you have to wait 3-4 years for a car can be classed as impatient, 3-4 months maybe !

By 2020 MB, Audi, BMW and plenty of others will have offerings if not before then, they will more than compete with the Model 3.

I only see 1 month delay so they are overreacting… my estimate went from Oct-Dec 2017 to Nov-Jan as one of the first to reserve online an hour before unveiling and owning a Tesla in Chicago.

The article’s example of a California owner getting pushed from Nov-Jan to Jan-Feb is clearly not an early reservation from Day 1 since I am in Chicago and got priority over them.

Due to the curve of the ramp-up, early reservation holders will likely see less delays in their personal deliveries than people towards the middle of the line.

This is based upon the assumption (yes I know, very dangerous) that once the battery packs start flowing, the rest of the factory will quickly jump to 500/week. This is based upon the successful burst tests of 500+/week for the rest of the Fremont factory.

Your results likely are not typical.

Alan, I’d encourage you to reconsider.

ONLY ONE company has this goal; all the others do not:

Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

When you buy an EV from any other brand you just give them more credits with which to sell more ICE SUV’s and GHG-spewing cars.

Why not be a part of the solution instead?


“Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy”

Nissan is doing far more than Tesla, at this point in time. Secondly, that goal cannot be achieved through EV’s or renewables alone. Tesla contributes nothing to other energy sources.

My issue with EV is where do you think the electricity comes from? More demand on the grid won’t be met with environmentally friendly sources. Are you pro nuclear?

Majority of EV owners have solar, had solar before, or will be getting solar soon. The grid is getting cleaner. Can’t say that for refineries or the gas it produces.

“Refineries not getting cleaner”.
That is dead wrong. Refineries make incremental improvements all the time, the latest big efficiency improvements are the use of low-energy gasses flared off to run in Microturbines to provide ‘free fuel’ to generate electricity, and of course, produce less emissions 2 ways – no flared gas, and less electric usage from the grid resulting in less emissions at the utility’s plant.

AS far as the other comment re: where is the electricity going to come from for EV’s, the vast majority of users recharge overnight which is a BIG NET BENEFIT to the ‘grid’ both in less emissions and much longer equipment life, and higher efficiency and less marginal fuel usage.

Well said. Let common sense be the rule.

Back of the line.

@ Robert Weekley:

It’s posts like yours here which give Tesla fanboys a bad name.

We should thank Spint for sharing his thoughts and feelings. There will be many TM3 reservation holders cancelling their reservation; that would have been true even if the ramp up was proceeding smoothly.

We should be grateful Spint took the time to explain his viewpoint in this public forum, even if some of his opinions happen to be different than ours.

bolt in hand beats vaporware in production?

He is in the UK. Neither are available in the UK. Leaf maybe, but not Bolt.

400+ cars actually being built, with assembly lines already burst validated at 500+/week is far from vaporware. You discredit yourself when you say silly stuff like that.

He can buy a bolt and import to UK, all he have to pay is taxes and imported fees

The Bolt is a great little car but it isn’t going to get me from Phoenix to Virginia in a timely manner and that makes it a no-win for me. Tesla is supreme for folks who want to travel! PERIOD. If all people need is a car that can get them around in their local area, most of the current EV’s can do that.

So I don’t begrudge someone for wanting a Bolt or Volt or any other EV other than a Tesla (Model 3). If it fits your needs, then buy it. But damn, don’t tinkle on on other people’s hopes!

If you’re driving from Phoenix to Virginia (and you’re not doing a rite of passage like a cross-country road trip) then you’re an idiot. Take a flight. American will get you there in a matter of hours for a couple of hundred bucks.

The CO2 impact from the flight will be MUCH worse than from a drive.

I need to buy a new car, I haven’t given up buying an EV and instead of a Telsa M3 I will likely buy a 2018 Hyundai Ioniq with the 64kWh battery which should be good for 250miles+. The UK isn’t that big and my longest drive I make twice a year is 320miles so with one stop for lunch/recharge this will be perfect.

SO… you are going to pay 50,000 plus for a “cheap” Tesla which MAY arrive some time in the next 3 years. ‘Cab’ has it right.

That seems pretty well thought.
I do have model 3 reservation, but just like you, quality, range and price is the first criteria.

Performance is fun and welcome, but up to a point only.

Just watching the Leaf 1.5 selling in number tell a lot about what consumer want.

“and there are going to be many options for 200mile+ EV’s that can charge at 150kWh+ available in the UK before then”

Please, name just one?

To add, name just one that has Supercharger-like network. Sure, lots of talks and “promises”, but they’re not likely to have anything like SC until at least 2020, if ever.

Key word there is “planned”. It’s been a year, they’re still not competitive against Superchargers.

Wrong again, not planned, they have already commenced and exist !

With 1000’s planned !

If you think they compete against Tesla now, you’re delusional. Yeah, 350 kW chargers “commenced and exists” in US as well. Now how do they compare against Supercharger network? You can’t drive eGolf or i3 across the entire continent using them. And when you’re able, Tesla will have even more.

you think there’s not going to be a rush to make charging as available as possible when EVs are selling in substantial numbers?

Wrong again,

ChargePoint ultra fast 350kw chargers are and will be compatible with CCS & Chademo.

And this is but one operator, by 2020 which is what we were discussing, these will dwarf the Tesla supercharger network.

Claiming that it “will happen” is what I’m saying. By saying “by 2020” or some future date, you are confirming my point.

You seem to think Tesla will stand still while others move ahead (or if they move ahead). Proof is in the now, not in talk.

We already have 38 networks, some are regional and some are national. Shell are installing Level 3 Chargers at a rate of 1 every 14 days. Even without Tesla there are at least 987 Chademo sockets and 690 CCS sockets.

Alan said:

“…by 2020 which is what we were discussing, these will dwarf the Tesla supercharger network.”

Let’s see… are you the guy who predicted that Tesla would put the Model 3 into production even earlier than July, and predicted a ramp up significantly faster than even the most optimistic goals suggested by Elon?

If so, then I think we’re seeing a pattern here! 😉

Having a 350 kW charger doesn’t mean that cars will automatically be able to charge at 350 kW rates.

Tesla Superchargers are up to 145 kW currently, and charging above 120-125 kW is very rare.

If you take a Bolt to a 350 kW CCS/Chademo charger, and you will only get 80 kW charge rate.

Besides, Tesla’s can charge at those chargers too, on top of being able to charge at Superchargers.

Until there are cars that charge at a higher voltage, the 350 kW chargers are pretty much just for future-proofing their network, not for actually charging at 350 kW.

Tesla’s chargers are modular, so they already have build-in ability to increase in kW by stacking more modular charge units to increase kW.

Sure, in 2020, other car makers may have cars to beat the 2017 Tesla’s. Just like in 2017, Tesla has lots of choices that beat what Tesla built in 2014. Meanwhile there is still no “Tesla Model S killer” to beat the 2012 Tesla Model S.

Cars and chargers will advance from other car makers, and Tesla’s cars will advance too. All is good.

If you take a Bolt to a 350 kW CCS/Chademo charger, and you will only get 80 kW charge rate.
Actually, you can only get about 55 kW charging in a Bolt. It just takes a nominally 80 kW charger to get that.

Ambulator: Thanks for the correction. I got that one wrong, my bad.

Can’t argue facts with the Tesla fans; as usual, Americans like to forget other countries exist, with far different conditions than theirs.
Driving thousands of miles/km, the Great American Road Trip is for fanatics, I’d say.
I did it in Australia, just to say I had… and it is utterly BORING.

Who cares about some US network in UK. Look how many standard chargers are in UK and how few proprietary ones:

They will be upgraded to 150-350 kW in no time as soon as capable cars will be for sale. It doesn’t look like so far that Model 3 will be able to use 120 kW most of the time in practice anyway.

Tesla has cornered itself with its walled garden approach, slowly turning into fenced jail.


It’s getting added to by the day, they will all be upgraded.

You mean just like Apple has walled garden and fenced in jail?

Again, talk is cheap, none of the operators have anything even remotely like Tesla network, and unlikely to have them any time soon (if ever) despite all their talks. Reminds me of VW and practically daily release of concept EV coming “any day now”.

Another Strawman argument. Comparing a [max] $1000 purchase with a $45,000 one. Rubbish.

So at what price point does walled garden that offer superior products and services fail to work, and what evidence that’s true? Unlike Apple, Tesla can also use Chademo, so it’s a walled garden that can roam outside if it chooses to do so.

Speaking of, fenced in jail seem to describe Chademo and CCS. They are locked in and cannot use the other, unlike Tesla with Chademo adapter that can use Superchargers + Chademo.

Tesla could roll higher power charging faster than the big boys. Its not what they are concentrating on.

Keep perspective here: The tesla supercharger network charges MORE THAN TWICE AS FAST as all other high powered chargers.

Right now.

Yes, now.


“fenced jail”?? Are you under the impression that Tesla’s can only charge at superchargers?

Stop your trolling.

I don’t know exactly what kind of advantage you think Tesla’s network has in Europe but I assure you you’re wrong. I can go anywhere in my country, well, I could, if I had a Bolt. True, Tesla’s SC is prettier, a bit faster, well, generally better, for the time being. It is nowhere near that super titanic sine qua non thing, at least not in Europe. Oh, check this

Europeans don’t tend to understand the scale of North America or the amount of driving we do here. We don’t have useful trains and planes don’t make sense for anything under 250 miles. Plus a lot of us just prefer to drive even for 500-1000 miles trips. So, recharging is a much different situation here.

I’m pretty sure my comment had something to do with Europe though. It was in direct response to Spark’s “To add, name just one that has Supercharger-like network.” wich was in response to “and there are going to be many options for 200mile+ EV’s that can charge at 150kWh+ available in the UK before then”. I stand by what I said. 1. There is a network in my country that allows me to go anywhere. There is not a single Tesla supercharger in my country. 2. We will have to pay to use the network but hey, no need pay in advance when you buy the car, a very expensive one at that 3. They are not as stylish as SC. No argument there 4. You said something about we not understanding Americans. I would argue the opposite is also true. Tesla says they will have a supercharger here someday and it will be placed 3 or 4 km away from the motorway. Wrong. We don’t want to exit the motorway. Are you listening Tesla? I do not want to stop and watch a film at the bloody mall. I want to stop at the service station, charge and go… Read more »

So, for the record, you think no one is going to be selling a decent EV in the UK before 2020? You have that much confidence in EVs huh?

Porsche Mission-e !

If we are talking about 100K EUR cars why not just buy a Model S now (or a year ago when the M3 was announced)?

You said name one ?

I did !

I guess you did not get what we are talking about here…

Hyundai Ioniq, Hyundai Kona, Kia Niro and probably Nissan Leaf. Maybe a Nissan CUV too.

300 km range, and charging at around 100 kW.

We have more CHAdeMO/CCS stations than Tesla superchargers today.

“We have more CHAdeMO/CCS stations than Tesla superchargers today.”

…almost none of which can charge even within the ballpark as fast as the 125-145 kW rate of a Tesla Supercharger.

Believing that older DCFC stations will be upgraded as soon as newer cars can accept a faster charge isn’t merely wishful thinking, it’s outright delusional.

I guess my comment would be why you would place a US$1,000 reservation for a vehicle you know is at least 3-4yrs away. Production was never going to be until late 2017, realistically 2018, and RHD probably 2019, if not 2020. I understand giving the reservation to show support, but it is sort of false support if you never really intended to purchase. I live in Australia, I didn’t pay the reservation because: A) I didn’t know if I’d have the funds to purchase the car when it is actually available; B) I don’t know what the actual price will be in Australia when it finally gets here. I’m hoping AUD$45k – $50k, but it really could be quite a lot higher than that; C) I know it will be 2019 or 2020 before it gets here, I don’t really need to reserve one given that time frame, by then they either have their production process sorted out and I can easily get one, or they don’t and I have to wait; D) there should be a lot of choice by 2019 – 2020, so maybe Tesla is not the best one for me at that stage (very hard to… Read more »

Nothing wrong with cancelling your order. If the time is right in 2019, you can always place another order then and hopefully the production rate will be much improved and you won’t have to wait long.

And as much as people are claiming the Model 3 is vaporware, in the grand scheme of things, the production issues with the Model 3 will be a couple of sentences in the history books. No one will even remember these production issues in 50 years!

Back of the line!

That’s a pretty small ramp !

I’m sure all this will be forgotten in 6 months or so when they finally get their sh*t together. For the sake of EV’s let’s all hope so.

I certainly hope so too, but even since the launch Tesla leadership seem to be making only mistakes.

For example, it is supremely stupid to lay off hundreds of workers precisely when you need to hustle up and outdo everything you’ve ever done before. In a situation like this you need all hands on board, even the less-stellar ones, and you certainly don’t need the stellar ones scrambling to fill the shortfall, looking for new hires, or worrying about their own job situation and work environment.

I must admit, this one puzzled me too.

Why on earth would you get rid of so many without having experienced ones to replace them, surely they could have played a part in the ramp up even if you knew you were going to get rid of them the moment you have your head above water ?

If they failed Tesla in the heat of ramp-up, I don’t see the logic of keeping them on instead of letting them go and opening the position to better candidates. Either through internal promotions or through new hires.

Tesla cut 2% of employees that they identified as poor performers. They promoted 17% of employees who were the top performers. The national median for involuntary separations for companies is 2-3%.

If I had an employee that wasn’t performing in their job (or even worse, disrupting performance of the whole team), I would get rid of them and replace them. Especially when the stakes just get MUCH bigger as they ramp up to higher and higher numbers.

Would you keep an employee like that when going into more and more important phases of ramp-up, or would you replace them?

Alan said:

“Why on earth would you get rid of so many without having experienced ones to replace them, surely they could have played a part in the ramp up…”

You are making absolutely no sense whatsoever.

Given the three-month delay in ramping up TM3 production, Tesla would have been foolish not to take advantage of that delay by cutting out under-performing employees. The delay gives them the chance to train new hires before the ramp-up crunch hits.

And really, all this sturm und drang over a mere 2% cut in employees? Is that really significantly higher than the average turnover at other auto makers?

Looks to me like all this discussion of, and argument over, Tesla’s recent tiny cut in employees is evidence that people are much, much too obsessed with how Tesla runs its business!

As the months go by, the problem looks more and more difficult to work through. I thought they were just a month behind, then it looked like 2 maybe 3 months behind. Now, they may be 4 or 5 months behind the ramp up that was projected to really kick in as of September and October. I really hope Tesla can work through this and get up to producing at least 5,000 a month relatively early next year. We really need a breakout star, and everyone assumed that it would be the 3. But you know what can happen when you assume. On a more positive note, Tesla produced 26,000+ S and X last quarter. Keeping the S and X numbers static (they haven’t moved much for a year or so anyway, how many $100,000 cars can they sell?) while increasing the 3 production to 5k a month would take them to around 41,000. This is doable if they can remedy the production problems they are encountering. I really think we will see Tesla at 40k+ in Q1 2018 and 50k in Q2 2018. It won’t be where Musk predicted but it will be better than any other BEV maker… Read more »

“they may be 4 or 5 months behind the ramp up that was projected to really kick in as of September and October.”

4-5 months behind the planned Sept. ramp up would mean that the Sept. ramp up to 1,500/month wouldn’t happen until Jan or Feb.

I’m not seeing any evidence to support that.

Sept. ramp up happening in Oct would have been 1 month behind. They announced a week ago that instead of ramping up, that they were fixing the battery back automation problems, so we know that they are at least 2 months behind.

In other words:

Sept ramp-up in Oct == 1 month behind.
Sept ramp-up in Nov == 2 months behind.
Sept ramp-up in Dec == 3 months behind.

We (obviously) don’t have Nov or Dec totals yet, so I’m not sure where the support is for there being any further delays at this point than the 1 quarter delay that we learned about last week.

I hope we see 1500 or more 3’s built in November or December, but given the pace so far, November is highly unlikely and December isn’t looking good, though I have to admit that I really want to see 1500+ 3’s built in December.
So 4 months after September is January and I think the chances are fairly good that we will see at least 1500 3’s built as the ramp up continues. If not then, then most likely by February at the latest. And these are production numbers, not deliveries.
And I realize that this blows my wishful thinking about seeing 15,000 3’s built in Q1 of 2018 right out the window.

Plenty of us predicted that Tesla would not sell M3’s in number before the end of 2018. They still have a year to prove us wrong. For whatever reason, Musk felt he had to jump the gun on production, with some creative corner cuttings, and it increasingly looks like it has backfired, but I am still optimistic that Tesla will survive and thrive. The brand is now firmly established and tremendously valuable. The biggest risk, I think, is a take-over.

I don’t know if it’s true as it was simply a comment by someone here but they said Musk set himself up for a substantial payday if he launched the car by a certain date …making him a giant POS if true and that was his motivation behind what should really be considered a pathetic state of affairs.

Can you imagine all the catcalls the noisier ones would have made WHEN someone suggested that perhaps more BOLT ev’s would be sold in the US (around 20,000) for 2017 than the Model 3? It was HERESY to presume that there wouldn’t be 150,000 to 200,000 ‘3’s on the streets by now – besides how was GM to find 20,000 batteries – and of course that it was impossible for the car to go anywhere near 200 miles at its relatively low selling price…..

Anyone who dared suggest that would have had personal attacks hurled at them by the noisy ones.

Funny how things have changed.

Sorry to tell you, but you are one of those “noisy ones”!

So far Tesla is 1-2 months behind (which actually is much better than they usually do) and you can’t keep your trolly fingers off the keyboard….

So far Tesla is at least 4 months behind and there is no end of the problems in sight. The car was supposedly “launched” in July but you still can’t buy it.

Where do you get your math on 4 months behind?

They hit their July and August build targets and were on schedule at that point.

The first month when they planned to ramp up past 100/mo was Sept. When they attempted ramp up in Sept. they found the battery pack problem, which they were still dealing with in October. So the ramp didn’t happen in Sept. and didn’t happen in Oct. Tesla has been very clear that they are in the middle of a 3 month delay because of the battery pack manufacturing issue.

How exactly is that 4 months behind?

Why is it that you guys can’t read a calendar?

The car was supposed to launch in july. Selling a handful of beta prototypes to your own employees under strict secrecy does not count as a launch.

There is the issue of comprehension, but this forum is apparently not the place to elaborate on that. I try to engage in adult conversations, as exist on TMC for the most part, as an example.

There is the school of thought that says a mature person would not engage with people who display outlandish manners – but those types of people depend on OTHERS being the mature ones so that they can PUSH their way around – hence the term keyboard warrior. I simply reject that and defend my ground. Not doing so ends up proliferating kindergartners.

“Funny how things have changed.”

No, what’s “funny” is how easily a die-hard conspiracy theorist like you can twist his memory around to suit whatever he wants at any time.

I don’t recall anybody asserting that GM hadn’t contracted with LG Chem/LG Electgronics for 20,000 — or even a bit over 30,000 — battery packs for the Bolt EV.

And I don’t recall many people, if any, posting comments to InsideEVs claiming that Elon would hit his most optimistic announced goal of 100,000-200,000 TM3’s by year’s end.

Revisionism is alive and well and living inside the heads of Tesla bashers!

That’s a hot one. Fewer and fewer here are fooled.

Speaking of Tesla bashers – of which you are a PRIME one, when are you going ot APPOLOGIZE for accusing Mr. Musk of selling “Defect-Laden” Roadsters that Brick their batteries?

Or mention what tesla should have done to correct the problem?

Or, what exactly what WAS the problem?

You don’t know the answers to any of those questions – no surprise there – but you are too pig-headed to appologize for bad-mouthing him.

Mr. Musk THANKED ME. He’d never do so for you, especially after bad-mouthing him for his ‘great crime’ of something he never did.

You must be off your meds today, Bill. And I’m not joking.

You write silly-nonsensical tripe that even the editor here sees, along with more and more of the other commenters, as for instance when one commenter stated that your horrid-vile-toxic comments are causing pollution – and then Superdope Nix said it must be me – Jay Cole partially quoted my comment showing it indeed WAS an independent comment.

You cannot discuss meaningful content nor answer simple questions.

You obviously have memory problems since I require nor imbibe a single pharmaceutical, and I’ve repeatedly stated that.

Every other month or so, I will occassionally take an aspirin, but that is it.

On the subject of patiently waiting for a car. As someone born behind the Iron Courtain, my parents had to wait 7 years for a car, in some other countries this was 14 years. Those cars were not Teslas 🙂
Some people were adding babies to the line, so by the time they grew up they’d have a chance at a bad, unsafe, unreliable car.
Waiting a few more months for a Model 3 doesn’t matter for me.

Behind iron curtain, you had no choice but to wait since there were no other available. With Tesla 3 you have, ummm, hmmm, I see what you mean…

If Chevy would put DCFC in every dealer (better would be every McD), Bolt could be an alternative. But sadly, we’re still behind the curtain for now.

Let me amend; doesn’t have to be every Chevy dealer, but only dealers / McD spaced about 50 miles apart in sparse DCFC areas. It doesn’t take much, but Chevy doesn’t seem interested.

Funny you say that. The closest DC fast charging location from my apartment is at a Chevy dealer.

Meaning WHAT for anyone but you??
Nothing, that’s what.

Excellent point. Some months delay for a M3 is the definition of a 1st world problem. I hope EU brands benefit of this and can catch up a bit. Will definetly get an EV as my next car but want to support EU brands so its i3 or VW I.D for me.

Tesla may be over-promise, under-deliver, but Europeans, especially VW, has been all talk, no product. Actually VW has been less than no product with their diesel cheating. If you want to support such crooks just because of EU, do you also avoid Chinese made products to support European con-artists?

BMW have sold 100K + EV’s, more than 4% of their global sales, not all pure EV’s but plug-in’s.

Well, we have to thank American makers for 15mpg trucks and SUVs. CO2 is a problem too.

People buy those big trucks, so the makers meet the demand. If no one’s buying, they’ll stop making.

As for CO2, you do realize cars are a small part of the problem (around 15%). If there’s anything useless, it’s all the damn air travel to “faraway lands” to take few photos, which they could’ve done with GIMP in the comfort of their own homes.

Isn’t that the truth!

And container ships put out huge pollution supposedly.

Thank Columbus for SUVs.

He discovered America, wide open spaces, and a reason to have an SUV.

Car makers may all be dirty. But with current US administration I prefer to pick my poison from EU. Just to support my continent. Actually got that idea from a certain politician.. just reversed it.

I.D is not late – it is on schedule. M3 is late.

China I avoid as well. They have my job now. I bet they ruined everything.

Tesla not allowing unions sounds bad as well. Just confirms my plans.

VW and affiliates are especially dirty (literally).

If you have to pick your poison from EU car, I hope it’s BMW BEV (i3 for now); while the car is expensive, i3 drivers are the most courteous I encounter. I don’t know if good people drive i3 or i3 turns a-holes (eg. BMW ICE car drivers) into good people.

We i3 drivers were nice people even before we bought our i3’s, especially those of us who had never owned a BMW previously 🙂

Yea, cause europe and diesel was suuuuchhhh a good idea.

Another Euro point of view

It depends what you consider. Strictly considering climate change impact (thus carbon dioxide) diesel cars are an improvement on gas cars.
For example.
Average car in the US emits 411gr CO2 par mile.
The average EURO diesel (Golf diesel etc..) emits approx. 170 gr CO2 per mile.
A top of the range diesel (for ex. Audi twin turbo 3.0 liters 320HP) emits 260 gr CO2 per mile), that is still a lot less than the average US car. EVs is a logic step up from gas and diesel but more importantly the total footprint needs to be considered. For example you can the best EV you want but if people carry on having huge houses with air conditioning full blast 3 months per year it will still not be quite enough to curb climate change.

None of this will be anywhere near enough to curb (let alone slow) CO2 buildup.. The fossil fuels except coal (optimistically) will be used until economically unrecoverable.

Refunded carbon taxes (worldwide) would help but geoengineering (blocking sunlight with aerosols like volcanoes do) is the only real hope for averting catastrophe this century. Fine, drive your EV, better yet live so you hardly need to drive. DON’T delude yourself into thinking that you are making more than a small difference by driving an EV.

YEh, & the huge US heavy trucking industry uses NO DIESEL AT ALL!

Boy oh boy….Tesla better get their act together before some untoward s*** happens (i.e. EV tax credit ends). Time is running out.

If you planned to buy an EV just because of the tax credit then that was a fools move, or you should buy an existing EV. Tax credits just distort things, much prefer to see disincentives than incentives.

In 2018 there will be more than 200,000 Tesla Model 3 deliveries.

Wait, does the drop two zeros rule still apply for 2018?

No. While Tesla tends to be late for almost all their targets, they do have a history of meeting them eventually. So if they’re 3 months behind now, that still gives plenty of time for 5000/week production in 2018. 200,000 cars next year seems very reasonable to me.

I would say possible but not reasonable. So if we presume 50 weeks of production next year at 3k a week, on average that’s 150k.

Since Musk says the goal is 5k a week by the end of the 1st quarter, we can presume much lower numbers leading up to that, so 1.5k a week, on average 1st quarter, so around 20k in that quarter leaves you with 180k to produce in the ensuing 3 quarters to hit 200k, which I doubt.

You’re assuming a linear ramp up. Tesla execs know better, which is why they published an “S-curve” graph to advertise the TM3 ramp up.

That has of course been delayed, but it’s still going to be an S-curve ramp up when significant ramping up finally occurs.

I heard from some that Tesla Will Not be able to Build Model 3 At these prices, because they’re not making enough profit. Unless it’s Loaded up model…So….I wonder Whats Up?

What’s up is more or less the exact same B.S. we’ve been seeing from serial Tesla FUDsters and haters ever since Tesla’s stock first became the most-shorted stock of any on the market.

The question is why anyone would actually believe such obvious and thoroughly discredited lies.

So… How come you cannot buy a base-model m3 yet, then??

What I don’t understand is if the original production projection by Elon was arbitrary to begin with, why did he paint Tesla into a corner in such a fashion?? No one puts a gun to his head regarding production, these stringent goals are set by him, why not set a little more realistic goal(s), thereby establishing a solid delivery track record instead of becoming the production laughing stock of the industry?

And I understand the need to set super-high goals in order to reach the sort-of super high goals, but the Model 3 rollout ain’t really helping Tesla going forward. And yet their future is directly tied to the Model 3.

Because he’s an entreprenuer that got lucky once, and thus believe it will work even better next time.

Got Lucky Once…R O T F L M A O..Ok Einstein ! What about spacex & re-Usable Rockets , Got Lucky there too ? Etc, Etc: Etc: Etc: & so on ….lol…If we all had 10% of Elon’s Smarts, WE could all be retired @ 30yrs. Old with a ton of money in the bank! aha aha aha ha ha…You’re Funny!

Remember, this is a guy who wants to establish a colony on Mars. Everything he does is aspirational. This works well for inspiring his employees and getting the best work possible out of them, but it fails at doing things on time. I think if Tesla could easily hit the goals its CEO said, Mr. Musk would make harder goals to continually push everyone to their absolute best.

Or sack them !

Or Sack them ! l m a o …Pretty cut & dry ..That’s Funny , & true…

Colony on Mars. Oh, yeah! That’s ass-pirational at best. Who would want to live there?

It has been said that there is a very fine line between genius and insanity. Musk risks becoming living proof of that.

The original timeline wasn’t arbitrary. The original timeline didn’t plan for having to take over 2 of the 4 “zones”/”modules” from another company. That caused a delay in the timeline. That’s all.

Perhaps you’re being unduly pessimistic. Being “painted into a corner” suggests you think Tesla is trapped. Tesla isn’t trapped; it’s just had a significant delay in TM3 ramp up.

That’s certainly not good for the company’s image, but if the stock price is anything to go on, it’s not a very serious setback either. Not even remotely as serious as all the Tesla haters’ posts currently suggest.

Pushmi- hopefully you don’t mistake my concern for Tesla hatred. My issue is the fact that Elon continues to issue unsolicited timelines that only hurt his company when he misses the mark. I don’t understand what’s wrong with giving a (fairly) realistic timeline but focus on the product. Hell, he can be nebulous and coy about exact numbers on delivery timelines when he has a product as cool as the Model 3- and still likely have just as many pre-orders. Or at least be more realistic and give Tesla some wiggle room with delivery based on a product he’s NEVER even produced before. That ain’t asking much. At the end of the day, the Model 3 will dictate when it gets delivered, NOT based on Elon’s and the publics’ want. Losing pr-orders to a longer timeline seems more healthy for the stock and public view than losing the same amount pre-orders via cancellation due to losing the patience of an already very patient customer base. Just my opinion. For all you folks out there painting me with the ‘troll’ brush, I still want a Tesla. I’m just concerned about how sideways the Model 3 issues can potentially become.
@John: I certainly didn’t intent to suggest here that you’re trolling or that you’re a Tesla “hater”. If I have in the past, then it was based on what I saw in a post at that moment, and long forgotten by me. I do agree with the points you’re making. I absolutely agree that Elon’s habit of making overly optimistic projections is bad for the reputation of both Tesla and himself. As we are seeing currently, this has caused nearly everyone — including even that segment of ardent Tesla fans who have not lost contact with reality — to seriously doubt all of Elon’s production goals and projections. The only point I was trying to make is that altho you and I both find Elon’s habit of making strongly or even wildly over-optimistic claims to be at least annoying, and sometimes downright damaging to his credibility, perhaps that’s just an indication we’re too close to the problem. Perhaps we both need to take a deep breath, step back, and look at the larger picture. That larger picture is that while Tesla has a reputation for being overly optimistic on its timeline, it also has a reputation for usually producing what… Read more »

Good point. At the end of the day the end up delivering what they promised, timelines aside.

For the record, you aren’t the one who’s painted me with the ‘troll’ brush in the past..

If you were Elon what would you do? (1) Hire 1,000 people for 3-6 months to hand-build battery packs just to save face (while losing any prospect of profitability) or (2) spend a few extra months fine-tuning the newly-built “machine that builds the machine”?

Where else can 500,000 reservation-holders spend their money in that time frame? Even if Bolt, Leaf, etc were worthy alternatives, how many could actually be DELIVERED before the Alien Dreadnaught starts churning out significant numbers of the best things on 4 wheels for under $50,000?

I’m impatient too, but I dont see any serious competitive threat to Elon’s current plan. I don’t hear GM, Nissan, or anybody else ramping up production.

I would let the talent purchased/acquired (Grohmann for example) do what they know best without interfering so that they can actually get something done instead of acting like a know-it-all and mess everything up.

The contractor they hired to do the job in the first place is who screwed it up and hid their screw-up.

Based on what I’m seeing in the Chevy Bolt Facebook group, a decent number of people are deciding that it will work for them after all.

Tesla has somewhere around 400K reservations for the Model 3

GM may build around 25-30K Bolts this year. Even if HALF of all Bolt buyers were former Model 3 reservation holders, that would still be well below 5% of total Tesla reservations.

I’m sure that won’t stop Bolt websites from hyping the anecdotal evidence.

Well that’s more than one, i.e. mass production. From the “glass full”-perspective, it means that they will sell everything they make for many years fulfilling 455k pre-orders with 110 cars produced per month. Tesla is indeed production constrained! 😀

At least they have work for 344.7 years !

Almost as long as you’ve been out of work.

I retired aged 45 ! A few years ago,

Lucky me, golf is my job now !

Lovely reply, Alan! You still working at KFC, ffbj?

So if this is the case does it mean the end of the ” Tesla Model VIN XxXX” stories? If they supposedly are in the 2,000s yet they only produced 440 then those stories seem pretty much useless.

Hopefully they get volume up to where it needs to be but as many of us predicted this is what happens when you “sell” a new model before you are ready to and that those that were really were more of a stunt than anything.

I don’t think of the reveal as a stunt, now Faraday reveal, that was a stunt. The M3 exists, though in small numbers. Now the ramp up I would say has been a debacle.

When I reserved my Model 3 after the unveiling I noted they said “deliveries start at the end of next year”. They seem on track to me. The July 1 production start date always seemed ahead of schedule to me.

Et tu Steven?

GM sold more Bolts 5 days last December than Tesla Model 3s in 3-4 months. Lol

So much for teaching those dinosaur OEMs new age manufacturing. 😀

Do you think you’ll still be laughing at Tesla’s production at the end of 2018?

He who laughs last, laughs best.

He who laughs last, didn’t get the joke at first.

Hey Bro, It is easy to make a car that looks like a box, has a plastic interior and uncomfortable seats along with missing standard features in $40k cars like garage door openers, navigation, ACC. The fact that GM gave the customer almost no upgrades like bigger battery, AWD, sunroofs, autopilot, sport mode makes it even easier to produce to the detriment of the consumer.

Oh and BTW GM sold only 579 bolts in its first 3 months of production. Then ramped it up to a mind blowing 3,000 a month before they realized that no one wanted the bolt and idled the plant for over a month to let inventory slowly get reduced by offering $5,000 discounts on a car that is not even a year old yet.

This isn’t exactly surprising, or even any new development.

Just one week ago, we found out about the bottleneck in the battery pack assembly line. These production numbers start from 6 week ago.

Did anybody think Tesla fixed the problem they announced in Nov, got a time machine, went back to the first day of October, and started building battery packs in volume?

The “Average Rroduction Rate” of a vehicle over its full production life time is always going to be the LOWEST AVERGE that is mathematically calculable.

440 M3’s / 4 months = 110 / month
440 M3’s / 16 weeks = 27.5 / week

The reality is monthly production is an upward trend and the last 1-2 months being meaningful. In case of Model3: monthly production numbers were estimated at: 30, 75, 117, 145. A total of 367.

So with the title of this article stating 440; is the author telling us that 73 Model 3’s rolled off the production line the first week of November?

If so … 73/week Model3’s sounds huge to the 27/week that the 4 month average (from title) implies.

Jul: 7 /week … 30 /month
Aug: 18 /week … 85 /month
Sep: 30 /week … 117 /month
Oct: 36 /week … 145 /month
Nov: 73+ /week … 290 /month ???


I don’t think much can be gained by trying to project out the current trend. Ramping up TM3 production over the next year or two is unlikely to be the smooth “S-curve” that Tesla’s PR department indicates. Rather, it will be a series of jumps as first one bottleneck, then another, is relieved. Overall it will likely look like an “S-curve”, but probably only by smoothing out the curve.

Another Euro point of view

Too much fuss about a first world little problem/delay that is (hopefully) not that much significant for the future of Tesla. Moreover it was more or less anticipated by the Tesla ultra bull at Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas if I remember well) so do not understand why this is deemed such a big issue.

First Production
310 mile range, Rear Wheel Drive and premium upgrades
Dec 2017 – Feb 2018

Unchanged from the last time.

My estimated place in line, according to that “guess from your reservation” web site is about 50,000. I arrived at the front of line that first day at 12:00.

My guess is July-December 2018. Why? Take their worst estimate, 3 month delay, and double it.

Your math is incomplete. If you are 50,000’th in line, some percent of people in line in front of you are waiting for AWD. Some are waiting for the Ludicrous version.

Many more who are ahead of you aren’t in markets that will even get the Model 3 until later, because reservations started at 10AM local time on March 31st local time. It was 10AM in London hours before it was 10 AM anywhere in the United States:

If you are in the top 50,000, and you are willing to take a TM3 310 with luxury package and no AWD, and no Ludicrous upgrades, you are much closer to getting a car than you think.

“a 2018 Hyundai Ioniq with the 64kWh battery”


How sure are you that you that you will be able to buy this EV in 2018?

Three models 3’s delivered to Colorado areas employees recently, so at least we’ve moved out of California a bit.

I know folks are indicating that Tesla has acknowledged the 3 month delay and the Tesla bashers are in overdrive mode, but I think the problem is Tesla’s credibility. I mean I have a Model 3 reservation and own a Model S and…I just don’t believe them with regard to the extent of the delay. I think others likely “feel” similarly. Sure, we don’t have any “evidence” and are surely speculating, but honestly if you guys had to bet, would you bet they are really ONLY 3 months behind???

“…honestly if you guys had to bet, would you bet they are really ONLY 3 months behind???”

I only need to glance at the calendar to see that they can’t possibly be as much as 4-1/2 months behind, because production did not officially start until July 1. If you want to guess the delay is closer to four months than three, based on no evidence whatsoever… well, it’s a free country, but all that would be is an unfounded guess.

Try to examine this in too fine a detail, and any number you give to the length of the delay becomes meaningless. Tesla hasn’t been sitting around twiddling its thumbs for the past three months. Elon has mentioned “burst runs” of the production line at the rate of 500 per week or even faster. Tesla will have been working to relieve any problems identified in these burst runs.

In short, we have good reason to think that when the battery pack production bottleneck is relieved, the ramp up will be faster than it would have been if there had been no major delay.

Glancing at the calendar- an unfounded guess.

Jul 1 to Nov 11 = 132 days, give or take.

A Model 3 reservation is worth two Bolts in the garage.

“a 2018 Hyundai Ioniq with the 64kWh battery”

That sounds good to me.