22 Million Electrified Vehicles to be Sold Between 2012 and 2020

APR 21 2013 BY STAFF 6

What’s the precise number of electrified vehicles that will be sold globally between 2012 and 2020?

Well, if you posed that question to clean energy analyst firm Navigant Research, then the answer would be 22 million.

Perhaps by 2020, the Chevy Volt Will Look Like This Again

Perhaps by 2020, the Chevy Volt Will Look Like This Again

Unfortunately, Navigant doesn’t break out predictions for plug-in vehicles, but rather lumps all electrified automobiles (including conventional hybrids) into one single category in its latest report titled “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts.”

But here’s what Navigant says:

“While sales of electric vehicles have not met the expectations of governments and automakers, they continue to expand steadily.  Both plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have become widely available in Asia Pacific, North America, and Western Europe, and are being introduced in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.  According to a recent report from Navigant Research, a total of 21.9 million EVs will be sold worldwide during the period from 2012 to 2020.”

See how Navigant refers to EVs here as both PEVs and HEVs?

What will drive growth of “EVs?” Again, we turn to the words of Navigant, but this time it’s Dave Hurst, principal research analyst with Navigant Research, who does the talking:

“The average price of fuel for conventional vehicles will likely continue to rise through the remainder of this decade, driving demand for electric vehicles.  Government policy, in terms of purchase incentives, emissions regulations, fuel taxes, and fuel economy rules, will also play a strong role in the expansion of the EV market.”

Finally, we close with the only statement made by Navigant in this report that directly relates to plug-in vehicles, with no mention of those conventional hybrids:

“Electric vehicles sales will grow at a much more rapid pace than the overall automotive market.   While the overall auto market will expand only 2 percent a year through 2020, sales of plug-in EVs will grow at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 40 percent over the remainder of the decade.  Nevertheless, by 2020, PEVs will still make up only a small fraction of annual light-duty vehicle sales – less than 2 percent, the study concludes.”

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6 Comments on "22 Million Electrified Vehicles to be Sold Between 2012 and 2020"

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I think that 40% growth is way off. I see that much growth THIS year alone and EV adoption will continue to accelerate.

I think he means 40% per year. It’s phrased kinda funny. At 40% annually that would be a 10-fold increase in 8 years. So if 50 thousand were sold this year, that’s 500 thousand in 2020. If 20 million cars are sold in 2020, that would be 2.5%

Yes, Highly possible, as long as battery prices trend down, Capacity up 8% predicted per year and compact cars for the masses continue to arrive.

I sure hope the Leaf will be around in 2020. It would be a shame if it wasn’t. But I wouldn’t count on the Volt looking as great as the concept in 2020. It’s a good looking car, but that concept looked great. Definitely bears a family resemblance to the Camaro.

I think this is a reasonable prediction of a market which is notoriously hard to predict. But any number of events could dramatically alter it. If battery advances stall, or something like fracking frees up a lot more oil, we will fall far short of this. On the other hand, if a major battery breakthrough is had, and gasoline hits $5/gallon, EV sales will be far more than 2.5% of the market in 2020. It will be an interesting decade.

The mere presence of EVs as an alternative to oil transport is a very good incentive to the oil industry to keep gas at under 5 dollars a gallon. That reason alone is a good reason to keep EVs around.

The previous article quoting Bob Purcell had a profound number. 1 billion autos on the road today. Projections to be 2 billion in 15-20 years. If that were ICEs, it is unlikely that you can maintain that much oil OR that our environment handle the pollution. “You better start swimin or you’ll sink like a stone…..”