By 2025, 1 Out of Every 4 New Automobiles Sold in Germany Will Be Electric

MAR 29 2014 BY STAFF 15

BMW i3

BMW i3

Green Car Congress is reporting (via German management consultancy Kienbaum) that electric vehicles will represent 25% of all new automobile purchases in Germany in 2025.

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This intel comes from Kienbaum, who “interviewed more than 350 senior executives, industry experts and scientists in Europe, North America and Asia for the report,” according to Green Car Congress.

One other prediction by Kienbaum is that in 2020, 800,000 electric vehicles will be on the roads of Germany.  Though the number sounds high, it’s actually 200,000 short of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 1 million goal.

Quoting Green Car Congress:

“According to the Kienbaum forecast, electric vehicle market share will hit nearly 7% in 2020, and then rise on up to about 30% by 2030.”

Germans haven’t yet shown a fondness for electric vehicles, so these predictions seem optimistic to us.

Source: Green Car Congress

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15 Comments on "By 2025, 1 Out of Every 4 New Automobiles Sold in Germany Will Be Electric"

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Sorry if I find that a bit on the optimistic side. Germany seems slower to adopt EVs even than the USA. And I seriously doubt 1 in 4 will be plug-in of any sort by 2025 here in the USA. 2025 sounds a long way away, but it is just a little over 10 years. I just don’t see 25% market penetration by that point. I mean seriously, I see hybrids all over the place even here in Texas. There’s a prius any direction you can look. But even hybrids are still like 3% or something. So all I can say is that I’ll consider it a win if we have 5% penetration by 2025.

Yes, Germany is adopting very slowly. But that can change quickly. People are hesitating since European media and automotive OEMs didn’t miss a chance to spread doubts against EVs. But the markt is ready for them. People become more and more interested. Still, a mojority doesn’t know what a Tesla is but enthusiasm is growing the more people get to know.

They consider BEV, REEV, PHEV and FCEV for those numbers. Since nothing has to be changed for a PHEV to be viable for every consumer, it is just a matter of the economics of the car. Reduce the current price premium and I don’t see any problem achieving those numbers even when people are not interested in EVs at all.
Due to EU-Regulations car companies will be forced to sell an increasing number of low emission cars. Current cycle testing makes that pretty easy with PHEVs on paper. Not so much in reality, but who cares? Yes, I’m looking at you, Golf GTE and the likes.

A market penetration of 25% is very different to 25% of new vehicle sales. The cars here have an average age of 9 years. So it takes some time to convert new sales into market penetration.

However, my opinion regarding non-BEVs is pretty similar to Elon Musk, so I won’t be even sad if we dont accomplish those numbers with PHEVs.

I think this predicion is optimistic only if the next generation of cars (200 miles on a charge for $30k) doesn’t come to market by 2017. If that does happen, as some manufacturers have promised, I think the market growth for EVs might explode.

+1

If the US maintains a 50k plug-in unit increase each year, 2025 sales would be 700k.

With being just 2500 ahead of 2013 YTD, plug-in sales need to get moving.

For 2014…

– the i3 already launched on the BMW website(should be added to the plug-in Scorecard)

– e-Golf coming late 2014 which should match the price of the current Focus Electric at $35k before expected FFE $6k price drop to $30k will help plug-in sales if both actually market their EVs.

– Refreshed 2015 Focus Electric that Ford states in their 2013 Annual Report…

“Ford will raise the bar on the industry standard when it introduces the redesigned all-electric (2015)Ford Focus Electric this year.”

So eagerly awaiting to see what Ford has to offer, hopefully they spill the beans at the NY Auto Show next month.

– Outlander PHEV

– The expected 2015 Focus Energi

– S500 plug-in Hybrid

Essentially 6 new plug-in vehicles from various automakers should spark more interest and boost plug-in sales a bit.

When the change happens, it will be a lot quicker than a lot of people may think. I hear all the time from a LOT of people I meet that they’d drive an EV, but that they couldn’t see paying $30k-ish for a 80 mile range car. When I start talking about the rumors of a 150 mile Leaf or a Miev in the low $20k’s or a 200 mile $35k Tesla they almost always say they could see themselves in one of those. I think there is overwhelming demand for EV’s and a strong desire to get off oil, but that the economics and practicality isn’t quite where it needs to be for real mass acceptance just yet.

I think 80+ procent of new cars sold in Germany in 2025 will be electrified.

Optimistic? Well… I think that the rules will soon be that limiting in emissions that almost all cars will be equiped with an electric drivetrain.

It’s just a matter of getting the allowed emissions low enough so that they can’t make cars attractive enough without it.

Average 95 grams in 2021, if they make it about 70 grams in 2025 then we’ll get there.

Gasoline is very expensive in Germany, if something happens over the years to hike its price even further, sky is the limit

Prices for electricity have grown faster than prices for gasoline over the past years and will continue.

If gasoline doubles and electricity quadruples, electricity is still going to be much cheaper.

Plus electricity prices have reached parity with solar in Germany which gives them a very hard ceiling.

idiotic report !
how can they say what will happen in 11 years ? are they mediums ? NO BUT IDIOTS.

This is actually a rather pessimistic prediction considering that BMW and Porsche now have a PHEV in the works for their core models, that VW/Audi has finally woken up and introducing plugins, and that Daimler has a nice stake in Tesla. Whatever the reasons and means, electrifying the automobile cannot happen fast enough.

I really think this is a pie in the sky puppy dogs and icecream dream and statement. The reason why is if suddenly 25% of the population had a urge to go out and buy a EV tomorrow I don’t think existing EV production would allow it to reach 25% of the cars on the roads even now. Such as we have to look at it this way. Right now Tesla is having a hard time with battery production with Panasonic trying to find enough batteries for 800 cars a week and a 1000 by the end of the year. They are currently looking at building a Giga Factory which is at least going to take eight years to build. So in till then the model E isn’t really going to come poring out on to the roads. Another example of them not being able to build them fast enough is the Nissan Leaf. Right now they are building 2700 of them a month for the 80 mile range EV. This looks like this will be the maximum they will be able to sell of this 80 mile range EV. If they do come out with a 150 mile range… Read more »

Just echoing what everyone else says that 1/4 of new cars is a HUGE number. Maybe they mean most of them will be fuel cell powered, in that case I can believe it.

Where’s GORR to say “I told you so” and rub it in a bit?