2.6 Million Plug-In Vehicles to be Sold in US From 2013 to 2022


Chevy Volt

Chevy Volt

Navigant Research has released a new prediction for plug-in vehicle sales in the US: “nearly 2.6 million PEVs will be sold nationwide between 2013 and 2022.”

Nissan LEAF

Nissan LEAF

David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research, states:

“In both Canada and the United States, the market for plug-in electric vehicles is expanding rapidly as these vehicles become more widely available. Overall, sales of PEVs in North America are expected to expand at a significantly higher rate in the next 10 years than that of the general light duty vehicle market.”

Navigant sees some states as having a much higher growth rates for sales of plug ins.  Those states include California, New York, and Florida.

Come 2022, “even the least populated states will see cumulative PEV sales in the thousands.

So, by 2022, there won’t be a US states with less than 1,000 plug-in vehicles registered?  We doubt that will be true, with perhaps Alaska, Montana, Idaho and a few other states staying below 1,000, but then again some states will likely break past 100,000 registered plug ins.

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11 Comments on "2.6 Million Plug-In Vehicles to be Sold in US From 2013 to 2022"

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It should be more but it could be true. It could easily be more but not as long as the idiot car makers saddle us with their incompetent overpriced offerings.
As norway and holland has shown, the people are ready to shift so as soon as someone makes a good EV (cost/value) then it will go very quickly.
The current set of offerings is just a bit too crappy to do it. Leaf has become a lot more reasonable in price but it’s still ugly, boring, slow and with not that great range. Model S is too expensive to make the mass transition and i3 is just a bit too expensive as well although that might sell half way decent and be just good enough to scare the other idiots into making EVs that are only moderately crappy.
What a world..

LEAF is slow? I’m sure you’re joking.

Right on. It is is not a requirement that my car goes 95mph. It’s more of a requirement (now that I’ve been exposed to EVs) that my car’s drive train is buttery smooth. Gas cars do not meet my requirements.

Yeah, isn’t it weird to drive a gas car after driving an EV for a long time? The gas car feels broken. Why does it have these weird stutters during acceleration? (gear changes) Why is it so noisy? Why is it so smelly?

LEAF is slow in 0-60mph… Takes about 10 seconds. That is slower than a Prius.

Don’t YOU DARE TO MENTION that lie which saying LEAF would do 7 seconds in 0-60mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ulgy, Boring, and Slow are all adjectives that are very subjective. And I disagree with all of them when applied to the Leaf. The term “slow” is, at best, relative to other cars. In which case, the Leaf performs very well.

The range, admittedly, is what I consider bare minimum for an all-electric car with fast charging. Which means it is still better than most of its direct competitors that offer similar range with no fast charging.

Ultimately the EVs will be less expensive than the ICE cars. The car companies know this and thus that is their reason for holding the pirices high and the volumes low, because they would like to delay wide adoptions of EVs which would be less profitable for them. It’s also unclear that they can mantain the advatages that they have in the market. In other words, when EV components become commodities, there is no advantage to an old ICE company, anyone could build a car. So “their incompetent overprice offerings” are a planned delaying tactic. I would argue that for broader adoption, the technology is adequate (for certain consumers) and only the high price, or as you say “cost/value”, is the issue. Now that said, certainly they could easily make models with higher performance too for those that don’t mind paying extra for performance, but even those higher performance models will be less expensive than equivolent higher performing ICE cars.

Looks like similar Navigant predictions that were loosely calculated around 17% annual growth. We do love our predictions though.

Customers would buy much more today if manufacturers invested in the tooling for increased capacity. One easy example is compliance cars sold in limited markets. Another is limiting production to a few demonstration projects. It wasn’t until LEAF sold their cars widely that they learned of the Arizona Heat battery capacity loss problem. The way to learn of all the real world problems — and there will be for a new technology — is to sell plenty of product everywhere.

For Navigant’s prediction, they only need 260,000 plug-ins per year for 10 model years. There were 95,000 sold in 2013. I would think 150,000 in 2014 is easily achievable. Beyond 2016 every year should sell more than the 260,000 average needed. That leaves 6 model years selling above the average for the Navigant prediction of 2.6 million to be easily achieved. I don’t see how or why this prediction will not or should not be exceeded.

That’s hard to believe since there will be 1M per year by 2020 and that is if battery’s improve by only 25% by then and gas prices only increase at the general inflation rate. Anyone want to bet both won’t be higher?

That number sounds a little low to me. I suspect it will do better than that but it will be back-loaded.