Is 100,000 Tesla Model 3 Reservations Possible In First 24 Hours?

2 years ago by Mark Kane 181

Tesla Model 3 Shown On Right? Nope, It's Just A Model S In All Black

Tesla Model 3 Shown On Right? Nope, It’s Just A Model S In All Black

Tesla Model 3 Debut Invite For March 31st, Doors Open at 7PM (PT), Livestream Starts At 8:30Pm (PT)

Tesla Model 3 Debut Invite For March 31st, Doors Open at 7PM (PT), Livestream Starts At 8:30Pm (PT)

Whether or not Tesla Motors is able to attract 100,000 potential Model 3 customers within the first 24 hours after the March 31 debut is the question of the day.

Some thinks yes, some no.  Teslarati even did the math to estimate what we could expect to happen in order to hit such a number.

Reservations will be open both online as well as in the stores on the last day of this month.

With 221 stores in play, and an assumption of at least 30 reservations per hour (few hundreds from 10 am to end of the day), Tesla could get at least 50,000 reservations from stores total.

Another input could come from Model S and Model X owners online, which also will get higher priority of deliveries. Teslarati assumes 25% owners to place order for Model 3, which would translate to 25,000-30,000 additional reservations.

Third, and not that large of a group, are Tesla employees.

Finally there will be probably plenty reservations from general public who don’t already have an association with Tesla, through the website.

In total, reaching 100,000 is a doable achievement, considering the Model S and X both eventually crossed the ~30,000 mark before those EVs launched, it is just a matter of timing.  Regardless, it would be a great marketing opportunity whenever they get there, because no one ever collected so many reservations for an electric car.

Of interest:  We would note Nissan once boasted of some 117,000 hand-raisers at their online portal to get in line for reserving the LEAF before it was launched, but that action required no outlay of capital (unlike the ~$1,000 deposit required for the Model 3).

An additional thought to the announced reservation number (whatever it ultimately turns out to be) is that Tesla could separately announce a major volume deal(s) of some kind for car-sharing, or other fleet orders, to raise the bar even higher.

Anyone want to go on record with their guess for the first 24 hours?  Month?

source: Teslarati

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181 responses to "Is 100,000 Tesla Model 3 Reservations Possible In First 24 Hours?"

  1. Delta says:

    The effect of 100,000 reservations on the TSLA will be even more interesting. Brilliant marketing that costs Tesla almost nothing to raise stock price by billions and hold billions in reservations.

    1. RexxSee says:

      Rumor :
      “L’autonomie devrait être comprise entre 300 km (185 miles) et 500 km (310 miles) en fonction de la motorisation et de l’option de batterie choisies. La batterie devrait être d’une capacité de 75 kilowattheure (kWh) ou 90 kWh.”
      Agence France-Presse
      NEW YORK

      1. evcarnut says:

        Yes, 0f coarse, I understand 75klwatts 310Miles …Very Nice! Hope you’re correct on that……cheers !

        1. RexxSee says:

          What about 185 miles = 75kWh OR 310 miles = 90 kWh ?

          1. Without translating, that would be correct per that article, as it lists 2 ranges and 2 battery sizes/capacities! Nice rumor if it is true!

          2. evcarnut says:

            The 90Kw 310 miles will work for me as well! cheers!

          3. ModernMarvelFan says:

            Nonsense…

            75kWh is only 185 miles?

            That would be way too lame..

            Even the less aerodynamic Bolt can do 200 miles with only 60kWh.

            No way that Bolt will be that much more efficient than the Model 3.

            Maybe a 55kWh version with 200 miles is possible as base and then Tesla will cancel it due to low demand. LOL.

            1. TomArt says:

              haha – agreed!

              The S70 has an EPA-based rating of 230 miles, so a car that is 20% smaller, but not necessarily 20% lighter (due to steel instead of aluminum), should be able to go well above 250 miles with the same pack.

          4. mr. M says:

            90kWh/310 miles would lead to 75kWh/260 miles. If the range is linear by the kWh.
            55kWh would lead to 189 miles scaled linearly. So something with the numbers seem wrong. Either 310 is to high or 185 is to low.

            Maybe its 185 miles EPA and 500 km (310 miles) NEDC for the 75kWh model.

      2. Alaa says:

        It doesn’t make sense. If it is 20% smaller and has a 90 KWh battery it should go for more than 500km.

        1. evcarnut says:

          its a steel body ??? it will be heavier????

          1. Bridget says:

            I heard the steel body rumor too. Weighing more… my thoughts exactly.

            1. evcarnut says:

              Hey , whatta you want want for 35 grand……..l o l….. but seriously ,it is much cheaper to repair & insure a steel bodied car..Aluminum is very expensive to repair & Insure, very few shops have the necessary skills & equipment to repair aluminum….

              1. David Cary says:

                Like my Leaf? Actually I have a 2013 where they changed a lot to steel. Had to have some door repair done at a local mom and pop shop. The estimate incorrectly came up as aluminum and I pointed it out – the guy said it didn’t matter either way. There is really little difference and now that the number one selling c vehicle in the us is aluminum, it really doesn’t matter.

              2. Stimpy says:

                This is not true.

    2. b12 says:

      The larger effect is the financial balance sheet cost of capital impact. 100,000 times $1,000 is $100,000,000 onto the balance sheet at a ‘cost of capital’ of 0%. It is the financial equivalent of getting a 0% operating capital loan when they take advance reservations. That has a greater impact on financials and thusly stock price than most people imagine. It’s a multiplicative effect and creates a positive feedback loop of capital structure of the company.

      1. evcarnut says:

        I wonder if that Is N0N-Refundable Deposits.?.

        1. jelloslug says:

          They are refundable.

      2. Bridget says:

        “The larger effect is the financial balance sheet cost of capital impact. 100,000 times $1,000 is $100,000,000 onto the balance sheet at a ‘cost of capital’ of 0%. It is the financial equivalent of getting a 0% operating capital loan when they take advance reservations. That has a greater impact on financials and thusly stock price than most people imagine. ”

        Well, not exactly, it is an asset as well as a liability. It isn’t really their cash, so there is no effect on the balance sheet. However, it is correct that it will effect capital. But it is a different mechanism. With orders of over 100,000 in a day we should see the stock price increase as high demand shows strong future growth. The higher stock price will give Tesla higher capital. However, the expected 100,000 orders in the first day could already be priced into the stock.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Bridget said:

          “Well, not exactly, it is an asset as well as a liability. It isn’t really their cash, so there is no effect on the balance sheet.”

          It’s an interest-free loan. I don’t know how that will be reflected in the accounting, but in real-world terms it certainly will help Tesla’s “bottom line”.

          A large number of reservations will also help Tesla in attracting investor money on more favorable terms. If Tesla can reasonably say “Look how high demand is for our car!” then that will make an investment appear to be lower risk, hence loans should be available at a lower interest/equity rate.

          1. Spec says:

            Yep. But in reality, those Model 3 cars will probably be around breakeven unless they raise the price or the gigafactory really delivers on the targeted 35% cost drop.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Well, there are three variables here:

              1. Tesla’s costs

              2. The price of the Model ≡

              3. Tesla’s profit margin

              Seems odd to me that so many keep suggesting Tesla will increase #2… and nobody is suggesting Tesla can decrease #1. Projecting fears rather than hopes, I guess.

              Yes, Tesla’s costs are partly dependent on the Gigafactory being able to deliver on the promise of a 35% (or more) reduction in the per-kWh price of batteries. But Tesla knows it’s entering a market where customers are very sensitive to price. Everyone saying that Tesla will increase the cost of the Model ≡… are essentially saying that Tesla execs are clueless when it comes to competing on price with a BMW 3-series or an Audi A4.

              Now, maybe it’s because I’m a Tesla fanboy, but I think if Tesla finds that its plans for the Model ≡ will result in no profit, they’ll adjust their costs downward to compensate rather than increasing the price. That is, they’ll go back and cut out some things they were planning to put into the car, or make them optional rather than standard equipment, or find cheaper ways to accomplish the same end.

              If batteries wind up costing more than Tesla planned, then they’ll have to slash costs elsewhere and/or use a lower capacity battery pack.

              1. TomArt says:

                With their experience with the S (over 25% profit margin steady-state), they gave the price, minimal EPA rating of 200 miles, and target profit margin of about 15%. I imagine that they are probably not going to be far off of any of those marks when production ramps up. And, as you pointed out, there is room to wiggle in order to meet those targets.

                I do not expect Tesla to renege on the targets. They didn’t with the S (technically), and we don’t know what they’ve done with the X since only reservation holders can configure theirs. Based on screenshots shared here, it looks like an X is the promised $5k more than a comparable S: S70D = $75k, X70D = $80k. But, to do it, the third row seats were an upgrade, not standard. I kind of like having that as an option (in case people need cargo space, not more passenger space, but it seems a bit sneaky to me.

                1. Nix says:

                  Tesla has previously stated that they are targeting a lower profit margin per unit for the Model 3 than the Model S.

                  This is typical among ICE car makers too. Margins are larger on large luxury cars, and on trucks/SUV’s than on volume mid-size and small cars.

                  That is one of the realities that Tesla realized when they decided to go with a sports car and a large luxury car for their first offerings. It is easier to compete in those sectors without volume than in mid-size cars. That’s why they established their brand first, and are now growing down into smaller, lower priced cars.

        2. ClifJ says:

          “It isn’t really their cash, so there is no effect on the balance sheet.”

          It is ABSOLUTELY their cash, with no obligation to sequester or escrow it (unless the location of the individual depositor requires that action, such as the state of Washington).

          See page 40 of the most recent 10k under “Liquidity and Capital Resources”:
          “Sources of cash are predominately from our deliveries of vehicles, as well as customer deposits, sales of regulatory credits, proceeds from financing activities, Tesla Energy products, and repair and maintenance services.”

          More importantly, see page 41 “Cash Flows from Operating Activities”:
          “Our operating cash inflows include cash from sales of our vehicles, customer deposits for Model S and Model X, sales of regulatory credits, cash from the provision of development services, and sales of powertrain components and systems.”

          Again: Tesla counts incoming deposits as CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS. It is entered in Cash and Cash Equivalents and, in keeping with the idea of a “balance” sheet, also explicitly called out in Current Liabilities.

          (“Amounts are included in current liabilities until refunded or until they are applied to a customer’s purchase balance at time of delivery.”)

          Make no mistake it is theirs to use.

          Footnote: In 2015 Tesla used a little over $2.2B cash in Operations + Investment. (The Operations number is NET OF deposits.) They raised $1.5B in Financing (Mostly Borrowing, Stock Offerings, and Option Exercises). The outcome is about $700M cash used. 100,000 reservations would cover about 2 months of cash usage, at the 2015 consumption rate. So financially it doesn’t really mean much.

    3. evcarnut says:

      100,000 RESERVATION IN 24HRS?? Would be nice ! but, I think it’s Impossible…Though I would like to see that happen….Tesla is the 0nly EV to buy with the charging infrastructure & all intact & growing ..Tesla bet the farm on this & shows much Goodwill …They Deserve The Business ,more than anyone 0ut there..Plus It is the Best/Wisest Buy!

      1. storky says:

        What is the expected fulfillment schedule on such a large pre-order base. I would bet those late on the list might have to wait more than two and a half years.

        1. Larry says:

          Yeah, makes me not even consider the car as a possibility.

          1. Robb Stark says:

            If you want the car ASAP put down a reservation on 3/31/16 and you will get it in 2018.

            What is so difficult to understand about that?

          2. Tim says:

            Buy a Model S now, order a Model X, and that will be the best way to get your Model 3 as early as possible.

            Problem solved!

          3. TomArt says:

            Musk knew/hoped that they could count on the S and X folks to be patient, but I would hope that he would have sufficient foresight to consider the possibility that the MIII customers, at the price point, are not going to be so uniformly forgiving.

            But, by the same token, there is no reason to believe that they will be able to exceed global demand for a very long time, so it may be a risk they are willing to take in order to ramp cautiously in terms of quality control.

    4. miggy says:

      Why would the RHD markets order now when Tesla has said they will be the last to receive any orders, most likely in 2020.
      It is good that companies like Audi, BMW and MB release their RHD and LHD cars at the same time.

      1. Spec says:

        More orders means more investment in the factory lines. You can always cancel the order.

        1. miggy says:

          True but why can other car companies release both RHD and LHD at the same time?

          1. TomArt says:

            That’s a good question – they already sell the Model S in RHD countries, so they already know what to do and how to meet regulatory requirements in those countries.

            Could be that their process is not so streamlined yet – also possible that the other automakers have the resources to develop both simultaneously and are able to manufacture them in different plants simultaneously. Tesla only has one plant globally thus far.

          2. Speculawyer says:

            Tesla is not a regular auto company. They are a start-up trying to become a regular auto company. They have have made many improvements to their factory but it just isn’t as streamlined as a Toyota or even GM manufacturing plant. So I think they add in things like RHD slower.

  2. Mister G says:

    100,000 reservations in 48 hours, myself included.

    1. ffbj says:

      I think it’s possible.

      1. RexxSee says:

        Yea, and another move that shows the genius of Elon Musk is that by giving the first reservations to Tesla employees, he also highly motivated them to build these thousands of first the very best they can with even less flaws from their first shots! Quite smart this guy! I continuously admire what he does and surprise us with.

        1. Bridget says:

          “..by giving the first reservations to Tesla employees, he also highly motivated them to build these thousands of first the very best..”

          I wonder if they will get them first? I know they can reserve first, but the roll-out is west coast to east coast then international, so if you are an employee on the east coast or internationally, I wonder if they would get the tesla before a customer on the west coast?

        2. evcarnut says:

          I think Elon is Candid with no hidden agenda & wants to get the Job done! Unlike all the other CEO’s that are wrapped up in politically motivated hidden agendas., for their 0wn individual profit & monetary gains $.!

        3. ModernMarvelFan says:

          “first reservations to Tesla employees, he also highly motivated them to build these thousands of first the very best they can with even less flaws from their first shots!”

          How is that motivation? It isn’t that they are required to buy a Model 3. They can order whenever especially majority of them live on the West Coast…

          It is a way to cover up the early flaws as the employee and Tesla fans are more likely to tolerate defects than general public. Plus, there are more service centers closer to the West Coast cities where the cars are easier serviced…

          LOL.

          1. Nom de Plume says:

            “It is a way to cover up the early flaws as the employee and Tesla fans are more likely to tolerate defects than general public.”
            _______________

            Then it’s an even better plan than I thought. The earliest owners will be the most loyal and will basically provide beta testing. Tesla employee owners will even be able to directly address problems themselves. After the first few months/year or so, as the car begins to filter out to the wider public, many early problems might have been eliminated. That will be crucial to Joe Q. Public, who has no loyalty to Tesla and is just looking for a reliable car.

            1. Spec says:

              Sure…and locals can easily have rework done at the factory. I hope that being within 15 miles of the factory could help advance my order. 😀

          2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            ModernMarvelFan said:

            “It is a way to cover up the early flaws as the employee and Tesla fans are more likely to tolerate defects than general public.”

            Exactly. Who better to be a “beta tester”, buying the first cars off the production line, than Tesla employees? Who would be more forgiving of problems that show up in early production? Employees are even less likely to make a public issue of problems than existing Tesla customers.

      2. evcarnut says:

        I’LL TAKE IT! SIGHT UNSEEN! L 0 L ..LET’S G0!

        1. RexxSee says:

          You’re going nuts before thursday? 😉

          1. evcarnut says:

            Yea, I’ve gone nuts! It’s too late! I can’t take all this Suspense …Let’s do it already!

            1. RexxSee says:

              🙂

            2. ffbj says:

              If you would like a second opinion, then I concur.

    2. Rich says:

      48 hour timeframe is a good way to look at this. Although the stores will be taking reservations, the site opening for reservations won’t start until 11:30 pm EST with the presentation ending at 1:30 am EST.

  3. David Murray says:

    When I reserved my Nissan Leaf back in 2010, I had to put down $100.

    1. Ken says:

      I put down the $99 for the Leaf in April 2010 as well and didnt get it until 2012. But Nissan waa saying in 2011 that all reservations has been filled. Bs! Im still a little mad that i had to wait that long to get one in NJ. Its not like im in a third world country! Let’s hope the wait for Model 3 is shorter although im sure it wont be.

      1. David Murray says:

        I know what you mean. I waited 18 months for my Leaf and it would have been longer, but a local dealer had one that was orphaned when the original reservee didn’t show up. Mine didn’t come in for another 2 months.

        1. storky says:

          I waited five months for my 2001 Prius. There was no money required for the reservation. There was some advantage in having been one of the first 4000 delivered to the US rather than one of the first 3000: most of those were the subject of two electronic steering recalls.

        2. Josh says:

          Same here.

          I reserved with $99 online and went to the local dealer the next day. They had no idea what I was talking about.

          I did get to meet the salesmen who was scheduled to go to LEAF training in a few months. I ended up teaching him more than any internal Nissan training.

          Nice guy, still talk to him. He wants a ride in a Tesla once I get one 😉

          1. TomArt says:

            Nice story – good for you!

            If Tesla loses against NADA nationally, then they’ll need friendly third-party dealerships.

    2. Vexar says:

      All the long-time Leaf-owners I know had to put down deposits when it was first announced. $100 seems like a pittance compared to Tesla Signature Model S deposits of $40,000. from around 2010. I think Teslarati is stretching to say 50k reservations in stores in day 1. That’s a theoretical limit. I think every store is going to get through an average of 75 reservations. I know my own store is also dealing with a huge quarter-end push for Model S and Model X deliveries.

    3. Larry says:

      Same for me in 2011. It just took 5 months to get my order filled.

  4. Kevin C. says:

    To hear folks go on about Tesla in these parts, I’ll take the over. It is ingenious marketing. Multi-level or not.

  5. kdawg says:

    “Anyone want to go on record with their guess for the first 24 hours?”
    ——–
    When asked this on the GM-Volt website, I guessed 31,416 for US reservations in the first 24 hours. That was my guess a couple weeks ago, so I’ll just stick with that. I have no idea for worldwide reservations.

    1. Alain says:

      Ok i go,on
      60 000 24 hrs
      Put me Down for 20 bucks

    2. Fishhawk says:

      Hmmm. Must have entered the guess on Pi day 🙂 Nice.

    3. Speculawyer says:

      You sure it won’t be 31,417? I think you are selling them short! 😉

    4. mr. M says:

      Why not 314,159?

      1. Spec says:

        31,415,926,535!

  6. Alaa says:

    1 Million reservation by the end of the year. This means 1 BILLION dollars for Tesla interest free. They can do a lot with this money.

    1. Nigel says:

      The state of Washington requires that reservation payments or other payment received from residents in the state of Washington must be placed in a segregated account until delivery of the vehicle, which account must be unencumbered by any liens from creditors of the dealer and may not be used by the dealer

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Okay, but isn’t that an exception rather than the general rule?

  7. RexxSee says:

    Even if for a reason or another I withdraw my $1000 (like a e-Prius at 300 miles AER! :-), I will be happy to give Tesla a little no-interest loan for a couple of years and contribute a little to make this planet a little more livable.

    1. Nemo says:

      Exactly my reason too!

      1. V2 says:

        There are times that I want to support a company and not sure how to do it but to buy a product. But if the cost of the product is too low (say a phone case manufactured in USA) or two high (such as Tesla MS) then a single purchase or being unable to purchase don’t do much.

        More companies should allow willing customers to give them interest free loans.

        Can’t wait to donate my $1000 on Thursday!

        1. Bridget says:

          You could also buy the stock, More interest in the stock = higher prices = more capital.

          I should disclose that I am a shareholder.

          1. super390 says:

            This is not directly true unless the corporation issues more shares to exploit those prices. When you buy shares from another investor, nothing goes directly to the corporation.
            Now the trick of issuing more shares without driving its value DOWN – diluting value – is one of the things Enron got caught doing; it kept creating new entities that would issue their own stock, yet the value of the new entity was sneakily derived from earlier entities that had already issued stock and their investors weren’t supposed to figure that out.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              When a company’s stock price goes up, its cost-of-capital (borrowing cost) goes down. Investors, banks, and other lenders have more confidence, so loans to the company are considered to be lower risk… thus lower interest rates and lower investor requirements for equity. I don’t know if you consider that a direct result or an indirect one, but it’s a pretty well established cause and effect.

              Also, I think you’re ignoring the fact that the last time Tesla issued more shares, diluting its stock by (if I recall correctly) about 1.5-2%, stock prices actually went up, contrary to the usual rule. Of course, that’s mostly or entirely due to the high volatility of the market price of Tesla’s stock.

    2. Speculawyer says:

      ” a e-Prius at 300 miles AER!” . . . LOL! Not gonna happen.

      1. mr. M says:

        It will happen. My estimate is for 2028.

        1. Rich says:

          LOL, that sounds about right.

        2. Spec says:

          That is even worse than not happening! ?

          1. mr. M says:

            Why?

            1.) Because you are dead by 2028.
            2.) Because you like to see toyota going bankrupt by 2028.
            3.) You speculate that in the year 2028 an ANSI will have killed all humans already.
            4.) i run out of excuses and just wanted to make a funny comment.

            1. Rick Danger says:

              1) Probably
              2) Definitely

  8. viktor says:

    All SpaceX employees have also got a chance to order one now wish probably means some thousands more reservation before it even started.

  9. RexxSee says:

    3 times “little” ?!? Let’s say “small”, then “little”, then “tad” 😉

    1. RexxSee says:

      Sh*t! I was answering my own 10:10 am post of course…

      1. Ian says:

        3 days to go…

  10. David Murray says:

    I admit I’m interested to see the car. But considering how long it would be before I could buy one, I’m much more interested in EVs that are already on the market, or will be by the end of the year. And who knows, I may buy a model-III when it comes out. But I am not going to put down any money on it.

  11. Ian Bennett says:

    It’s been a long time since I sold cars in Ontario, but during my time I think deposit money had to be placed in escrow, so it was not available as operating capital. That way, customers would be assured of getting their deposit back is something went wrong. Is it still the case that the deposit money is NOT available as working capital ??

    1. V2 says:

      Interesting point…

      If there is a check box there where it says “I authorize Tesla Motors to use my money as they see fit and even put them in “at risk” transactions”, I will gladly authorize that.

      1. ClifJ says:

        V2, they already have that ability. While the deposit is legally refundable, they have no obligation to do anything specific with the cash you lend them. You are an unsecured lender, period.

        (I am not saying there is anything untoward or evil. Just know there are no constraints on spending the money except for general company purposes.)

    2. Breezy says:

      The Model 3 reservation agreement says “You also agree that we will not hold your Reservation Payment separately or in an escrow or trust fund or pay any interest on Reservation Payments.”

      However, in taking deposits from people located in jurisdictions where deposits must legally held in trust or escrow, Tesla would likely have to follow those laws.

      1. ClifJ says:

        ..an they do, Breezy. Those deposits are entered under “Restricted Cash”.

  12. Lou says:

    The upcoming reveal is actually quite exciting. For me, I am curious to see how they can “best” GM, by coming up with a larger, cheap0er car. WE have seen the Bolt EV and I think it shows real potential, it should do well. But TESLA has some very strong selling points, such as in addition to above, access(in one way or another)to their SC network. I cannot believe that Tesla will offer a car at $35K that is 80% of the size of the Model S. That doesn’t even seem possible. Let’s hope they shock us.

    Lou

    1. Thomassen says:

      why it’s not possible, 40kw ms was 50k. They always told the ms would be a 50k car. Now the m3 is a 35k car. Just expect to pay 45 to 60k for a good equipped car.

    2. Grady says:

      Lou, I think they will shock us with an electrifying design with potential, getting current shoppers amped, and resisting car makers will want to go ohm.

      1. Kevin C. says:

        Watt are you inducing?

        1. TomArt says:

          +1 each!

    3. Model S says:

      I see no potential in the dork mobile that is the Bolt

      1. super390 says:

        It would be be great if Model 3 reservations reached a number so high that GM was forced to tip its hand about the actual upper limit of Bolts it can build. I want to know that GM is prepared to build hundreds of thousands of them if the buyers are there. Combined with similar Tesla sales and the other new longer-range EVs, it will make 2018 the year of the EV.

  13. Leaf Owner says:

    I’m still on the fence regarding the deposit. My bet is they will have >150k reservations that first week and likely 80-100k that first day. The issue will be delivering those. I won’t be the first in line for sure — and I will not put any $$ down until I see it and review the basic specs — which means Thursday evening / Friday. So let’s say my reservation in in the low 100k’s by then — how long would it be before I got the car?!? My bet is only a few will make it out in 2017 if all goes well. If the ramp up goes well – maybe 50-75k in 2018….therefore I’m looking well into 2019 before getting my hands on one. By that time – there hopefully will be many other options out there to select from. Don’t get me wrong — I’d like to get one — just being realistic.

  14. Ian says:

    Possible…yes. But Tesla has to say 2 things. Free access to super chargers, and a range that out paces the competition by 3 years.

    1. Spec says:

      Not gonna happen. You’ll get 200+ miles range and pay around $2K if you want free supercharger access.

      1. TomArt says:

        That would be my guess – besides cost and weight constraints, they need to justify the higher price of the S and X besides acceleration, size and bells and whistles. By the time the III rolls off the assembly line with the base model having barely 200 EPA miles, the S and X will almost have to have 250 and 300+ mile versions in order to fully justify the premium over a base and upgraded Model III.

        1. Ian says:

          Based off the old cell capacity with a 60kwh battery pack and now add in the latest 15% capacity increase your looking at around 69 kWh for the model 3…maybe

  15. Brendan says:

    There’s no way. I’m a huge electric car fan (drove a 2012 Leaf and now a 2015 Volt), and a big Tesla fan (I intend to get a Model III when my current lease is up), but get real. Outside the electric car bubble echo chamber of sites like this, no one even knows that Tesla is unveiling a new car this week, let alone is willing to put down $1000 for a car they’ll get in 2 years. This isn’t Apple, with a huge fan base lining up to buy the latest gadget. The Model III will undoubtedly expand the electric car market, and may (hopefully) even be the tipping point into mass adoption, but right now there’s no pent up demand for such a vehicle. Tesla’s challenge is going to be creating demand along the way. I expect maybe 10,000 reservations in the first 24 hours. That wouldn’t be a sign of failure- that would be a sign of reality, and the long road that Tesla has in front of it. Slow down the hype machine, people.

    1. jelloslug says:

      I beg to differ, just this morning there was a large thread in a totally non-EV related forum that I frequent about if anyone was going to put a deposit down on the Model 3.

      1. Mxs says:

        Ok so it is two sites/forums …. I am being cheeky, but you get that generally people don’t care or are unaware if Tesla or any other electric car release.

        Sadly, with middle class being gone it’s about costs for most people which means gas car when all is said and done.

        If this site did an income poll, I would bet most people’s household incomes would land north of 100K …

        1. Bridget says:

          After federal (and state and county) clean car rebates, I expect the Model 3 to be around $23K for me when all is said and done.

          They might want to look into what kind of incentives their respective States have.

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            I expect it will cost you considerably more, because you very likely won’t order the bare-bones Model ≡ with no options whatsoever.

            By comparison, current entry level price for a Model S70 — if I have this right — is “just over $76,000”, according to Kelly Blue Book, but average sales price is about $95,000.

            1. TomArt says:

              The only RWD version left is the S70, which starts at $70k…well, $71.2k after taking the destination charge into account. That’s with no options at all. The base S70D adds $5k.

        2. TomArt says:

          A lot of engineering/science people (professionals with above-average incomes) know about it, even if they aren’t “into” cars all that much.

          It’s cutting-edge, very cool tech, and the Roadster and Model S each made a huge splash beyond the automotive arena.

          100k might be silly, but the 10k mark will most likely be left in the dust.

    2. Speculawyer says:

      I don’t think they’ll hit 100,000. But I do think the number will be pretty high such that it will surprise many people. There are a LOT of people that have been tracking EVs and would like one but have been turned off by the short range (LEAF, FFE, Fiat 500e, etc.) or the high price (Tesla Model S and Model X).

      The Model 3 promises a long range at an affordable price. And the $1000 deposit isn’t huge. So I think a lot of people that have been lurking in the background will move.

      But in the first 24 hours? I’d say only 15K to 30K or so.

    3. super390 says:

      Tesla doesn’t even advertise. So the hundred thousand or so cars it has already sold were due to word of mouth – the echo chamber. In the Internet Age, echo chambers are replacing conventional media. Kickstarter relies on that. Now even two insurgent presidential candidates rely on that.
      It matters what we say here, because the “heres” are multiplying.

  16. Speculawyer says:

    Possible? Yes. But doubtful, IMHO.

    I would guess something more like 15 to 30 thousand. But that is just a WAG (wild-assed guess).

  17. jstack6 says:

    I’ll guess 90K orders in 24 hrs mainly the system will limit how fast they can record orders and do $1,000 credit transations.

    Also 150K order in 1 week with 250K by the end of the first month.

    My home will be 2 of them =D———

    1. Bridget says:

      Then you need to bring your spouse, they are only allowing one order per person at the showrooms.

      1. jelloslug says:

        I was told two per person and you can put a deposit down in someone else’s name.

  18. LOL says:

    35.000-45.000 first 24 hours
    75.000-100.000 first month
    P.S. I would love Elone prove me wrong and have one more ace up his sleeve to be revealed in a fortnight from March 31st and boost it for another hundred 000. With love from Russia.

    1. Speculawyer says:

      That sounds like a pretty good estimate.

    2. Bob Nickson says:

      Since this is a fantasy thread…

      My fantasy is that the reason the Model X was delayed, and production trickling, is that Tesla had already reached the capabilities needed to produce mass market cars.

      So the fantasy is that on Thursday, Musk will reveal not only the Model III, but the Model Y also. Two new vehicles, available for order now, production begins January 2017.

      And hey, since we are in fantasy mode here… The reveal ceremony starts at its scheduled time!

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Bob Nickson said:

        “And hey, since we are in fantasy mode here… The reveal ceremony starts at its scheduled time!”

        Now you’re just being Ludicrous™. 😉

      2. Nix says:

        Heck, if you are going to go into fantasy mode, please bump up production to start on Thursday at 8:30 too!

        *laugh*

        1. Bob Nickson says:

          Now wouldn’t that just bump the stock price a penny or two?

          “While we walk you through the features of the new models, the screen behind me will be a live feed of production of the cars that were reserved this morning.”

          “Our production goal for Model III and Model Y this year is 50,000 of each.”

          Grin from Musk…

          “Tesla’s goal is to accelerate the electrification of transport, well, we’ve just accelerated.”

      3. LOL says:

        … “production begins January 2017” would be highly appreciated by American buyers directly saving them $ 7.500 federal tax credit. Good fantasy thread Bob Nickson, that would be good.

  19. HVACman says:

    The bigger question is how fast will we see 100,000 Model reservation cancellations in Jan. 2017 when the following posts all hit the pages of Inside EVs on the same day:

    Tesla announces a revised date for the first Model 3 retail deliveries to early 2018.

    First glowing retail-owner reviews of the now-at-dealer-showrooms-and-for-retail-sale Bolts.

    GM/BMW/Nissan/VW announcement of their joint collaboration with Chargepoint, EVGO, and the rest of the 3rd party EV charging industry for a ubiquitous, open protocol SAE/Chademo dual FCDC charging network dwarfing Tesla’s proprietary SC network. All Bolt, Next-gen Leaf, & i3 purchasers will have a free trial membership.

    1. TomArt says:

      The charge rates are too slow for Tesla vehicles, and Tesla already markets adapters for both standards.

      Tesla only ever intended to enable long-distance driving with the SC network, and they will continue to build it out as they are now, globally. You don’t need a lot of SCs if you’re the only automaker that adopts your technology, and if you’re only enabling intercity travel. Note the growth of Tesla’s destination chargers at retail and employment sites, where charging speed is not critical.

      I see no problems here. In addition, the Tesla will out-perform all of them, and all ICE’s at the price point, on the road, if the Roadster, S and X are any indication of what is planned for MIII.

      The only potential demand dent will be if production is significantly delayed (like to my original prediction 2 years ago of Q3 2018 for first deliveries).

      1. Speculawyer says:

        There is no Tesla adapter for SAE-CCS DC fast-charging. They might want to get to work on that if they have not already done so.

    2. Speculawyer says:

      Chademo is only 50KW. CCS can go up to 100KW but I don’t think anyone is doing that yet. Superchargers are 125KW right now.

      1. mr. M says:

        Chademo is 62.5kW and 100kW soon (2017) expected, CCS is specified for 170kW with 350kW in the works. 350 kW CCS probably ready by 2019-2020.

        1. Spec says:

          Drool.

          Please give links!

        2. przemo_li says:

          Those are standards.

          Tesla have real thing. Like in usable right now.

          Even after charger networks start rollouts… They wont replace all those 50kWh chargers overnight. Expenses need to amortize and all that.

          Tesla have upper hand either way. Less then a year is just too little to change the general picture.

          On the other hand is naysayers are right and Tesla 3 starts mass production only in 2018 then maybe in some markets charger situation balance out. Would be really hard thing to achieve, but hey, everybody win, right?

          1. Paul says:

            Tesla seems to be doing. While many others are talking. At least here in France. Best example: in 2014 Sodetrel-EDF promised, with a lot of fanfare, that it would built 200 fast chargers along our motorways in 2015. Mind you: EDF is the government owned national electricity monopoly, so you would think if somebody has a chance to get this, done, it’s them, because they have all the right coonections. At the end of december 2015 in total 9 fast chargers were ready and working.

            In the meanwhile, mostly in silence, Tesla had built over 100 superchargers (chargers, not stations) in France…

  20. Orygun EV driver says:

    Current Tesla owners have no real need to hurry to make reservations. They move to the front of the line whenever they choose to put down their $1000 (at least in respect to the “unwashed masses”, they will however be behind other Tesla owners in the queue)

  21. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    Seriously, 100,000 orders in the first day alone? I question that Tesla’s website(s) could handle that volume.

    Y’all want guesses? Okay, I’ll guess 40,000 in the first 24 hours.

    * * * * * * *

    Counting up while counting down:

    By my count, this is the 7th InsideEVs article on the subject of the Model ≡ Reveal since I started counting several days ago. Since I guessed there would be 7 articles before the Reveal even actually started, it’s now “official” that I underestimated the actual number.

    Here’s hoping, for Tesla’s sake, that I’ve similarly underestimated the number of people willing to give them a free loan of $1000 for the privilege of waiting two or three years to get a car! 😀

    1. TomArt says:

      Yeah, I think that I had guessed 9, so I’m still in the running!

      As for reservations in the first 24hrs – talk is cheap, and a $1k 2-yr reservation is not – globally, it might be possible to break 50k reservations in the first 24 hrs.

      I’ll go with 52,000 reservations in 24hrs.

    2. Nix says:

      I think Jay Cole has bet money on the over….

      *grin*

  22. Bridget says:

    Here is a spreadsheet showing who will be coming to the showrooms to order. You can also add your name. So far, of the people who know about the spreadsheet. There are over 500 intentions to order in the showroom worldwide.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VtU7w34dtHhmz5loGG0xEkZwc-VvppSGchKgvNaAsHo/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=0

  23. Three Electrics says:

    I love the uninformed speculation rampant in Tesla forums. The manufacturing rates for the Model X, for example, were frequently and confidently estimated at 10x of the reality, not just by commenters, but also wanker sites like Clean Technica.

    It’s fun to play, isn’t it? The BMW 3 series sells 500K a year, worldwide. I’m going to estimate that 5% of that market puts a deposit on the Model 3 on the first day. That’s 25,000. Even that may be too high.

    1. TomArt says:

      What do you mean that MX production rates were estimated too high? Tesla reported the units sold each quarter, plus provided clear statements in their various regulatory filings. There are no surprises here – no site that I read has significantly overestimated MX production.

      1. TomArt says:

        In fact, there was an article just the other day on this site that reported the tour results from those financial analysts – I think the current ratio was 5:1 S:X production as of last week.

    2. Nix says:

      The Tesla Model S is currently outselling its BMW counterpart.

      What happens if the Model 3 also outsells its BMW counterpart?

      That’s big numbers. I doubt anybody thought Tesla would take as large a chunk of the upper range market either.

      1. Stimpy says:

        The Model S and 7 Series buyers are totally different customers.

        One expects MORE room in the rear, not less, and also expects a far far more luxurious interior. The other like straight line speed and torque of an electric motor.

        1. Nix says:

          In China that would be true, where it is common to hire a driver. Not so much in the US market.

          Meanwhile, back here in reality in the United States, the Model S has already cut into BMW, Audi, Jaguar, etc sales.

          Buyers have changed their minds as to what now matters to them.

  24. Bridget says:

    In case you were wondering. The spreadsheet came from Tesla Weekly Issue 80.

  25. Speculawyer says:

    Big orders may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people think there will be big orders than an early order becomes something with value. You could sell your place in line to someone else (even though Tesla will discourage and try to stop this). Thus all the current Tesla owners may put down a deposit because they get an early spot in line that they could give to someone else. I was just suggesting to a friend that just bought a Model S that he should do this since he’ll get an early spot in line . . . I told him I’d buy it off him.

    So there are lots of weird factors that are going to affect these pre-orders.

    1. Nix says:

      The reservation contract specifically states that the reservation is not transferable. Or at least not transferable without Tesla’s approval.

      https://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf

      Your Reservation is not
      transferable or assignable to another party
      without the prior written approval

      1. Spec says:

        Yeah, yeah. That doesn’t stop my friend from buying it and selling it to me 3 seconds later.

    2. MTN Ranger says:

      Reservations are not transferable, unless you buy the car for them.

  26. Rick Danger says:

    I guessed 100,000 in the first week, so I’ll stick with that.

  27. BraveLilToaster says:

    Optimism abounds!

    Considering that Nissan doesn’t even sell half that many Leafs in a year, worldwide, I highly doubt they’re going to hit that mark. While there is much hype behind the “Affordable Tesla”, there’s also an anti-EV streak in the general public. Most people are still of the mind that they’re a neat novelty (for someone else to drive), but *they’d* never buy one, even with 200+ miles of (summer) range.

    I think this sort of excitement about the Model 3 release only exists in the EV fan club. Sorry, but if you’re truly hopeful that they’ll reach 100,000 reservations, even in the first *year*, I think you’re about to be deeply disappointed.

    1. Speculawyer says:

      It goes beyond the EV fan club. I’ve seen it. But I agree that 100,000 is a ridiculous number.

      1. Paul says:

        In my village (France) hardly anybody knows the name Tesla, not the scientist neither the car maker.

        1. Speculawyer says:

          Well, certainly a lot of people do not know about Tesla. But Tesla is well-known to the type of people that would be interested . . . young, guys, people who like technology, environmentalist-types, etc.

          For example, here is a thread from a forum that generally covers videogames . . . several of them are ordering one. One is going to camp out at the Tesla store.
          http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1182551&page=5

    2. przemo_li says:

      Proof?

      The only person I was not able to convert to EVs “cult” is person who drive ~330KM ICE 😀

      He will have to wait for Roadster 2.0 I suppose. 😉

  28. viatierra says:

    I’m as excited as everyone else for Thursday, but I think an in-store reservation rate of 30 per hour is crazy high. I’d expect 5-10 per hour on average, per store.

    Plus, are we even sure reservation data like this will be public information?

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      We’ve had reports on the number of reservations for the Model S and the Model X. Why would Tesla keep the information private? Assuming it’s a large number, it will be good publicity for Tesla.

      I expect Elon will send out multiple tweets about the mounting reservation numbers. However, we may not get the total taken after exactly 24 hours from the moment the online reservation system went active at any Tesla store.

    2. Spec says:

      If they are big numbers then you can be sure Tesla will make them public. Remember what they did after they introduced the PowerWall?

  29. mr. M says:

    Lets remember, the first reservations can be taken in Australia 10 am, 31. march. That is around 24 hours before the model 3 reveal, which will happen at the evening at the same day in california.

    Meaning 24h after the reveal the books are already open for 48h.

    My guess is that around 25k reservations will happen before the reveal, 35k in the 1-3 hours after the reveal and the next 40k in the following hours until the “24h later” limit.

    Meaning 24h after the reveal there will be 90k reservations.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Very good points, Mr. M. I was just thinking that this question will probably devolve into a murky argument over just when the clock should be started on that “24 hours”.

      As you say, 24 hours after the start of the Reveal will be a different time than 24 hours after in-store ordering starts at the earliest time zone Tesla stores… which I think are in Australia.

    2. Spec says:

      Is there a Tesla store in Australia?

  30. As much as I would love to see 100k reservations or more, I think these guesses are rather optimistic. If this were the Price is Right, my guess would be 1.

  31. Josh says:

    I said 100k during the calendar year of 2016 (worldwide), http://insideevs.com/op-ed-2016-plug-sales-predictions-us/

    I will stick with my guns there, but say Tesla will get 50k by Sunday. They will out-gross most of the movies at the box office, lol.

  32. Rich says:

    I’m guessing 30k in the first 48 hours. 100k by end of April.

  33. techie says:

    Can I reserve a RHD model 3 for UK delivery at a tesla store in France, while on holiday, from the UK?!

  34. Nix says:

    Lots of folks have a rosey expectation of how the Model 3 will be received by the general public. But I’m just hoping that the release doesn’t trigger the same kind of political backlash against green cars that we saw when the Leaf and Volt were first released.

    I’ve noticed that stories about Tesla in the mainstream press seem to be attracting more politically motivated posts bashing green cars. And I still remember Mitt Romney attacking Tesla by name, and all the anti-Volt bashing in the last Presidential election cycle. Hopefully we won’t see a repeat of that, and the Model 3 being made into a political issue.

    If we see a repeat of the Volt bashing, and another wave of general anti-green car bashing, that is going to cut into reservation numbers. The same way it cut into Volt sales numbers, especially in Red states.

    1. Spec says:

      Pfffft. Go ahead losers. 2015 blew away global temp records. Feb 2016 was crazy hot. And Trump is Jackhole. Let them bash. It will backfire.

      1. FYI that isn’t a good plan. As part of the “them” that you refer to, I can tell you the best way to win them over is by pushing the positive aspects of EV ownership. For me that definitely includes energy independence. You can win the red states, but using the global temps argument will get you nowhere IMO.

        But you are right about something, Trump is a Jackhole!

        1. Speculawyer says:

          I’ve spent years trying to convince EVs are good from many conservative viewpoints. It reduces our dependence on foreign oil which is a national security threat. Reducing dependence on oil would also HUGELY improve the trade deficit. Basing transportation on electricity would mean basing it on ~100% domestically generated electricity thus creating lots of jobs.

          But except for a tiny percentage of them, it just doesn’t persuade them. By nature, conservatives just want to keep things as they are and don’t change things.

          So I’ve largely given up and would kinda rather have them stick with gas guzzlers such that the whole issue blows up in their face as they back another industry of buggy whips and whale oil. Let the people see that their policies are bad and short-sighted so fewer people vote for them.

      2. przemo_li says:

        “Record temps” aint record at all (Earth was warmer by far in its long existence), nor is it enough to prove anything.

        You need trend over longer term (decades/centuries), and provable link to factors that are not “temporal”.

        Global warming have both, but its not as simple as “record” anything 😉

        On the other note. Who cares about GW???

        ICE kills You, Your kids, Your pets, Your neighbors… It cost USA economy billions on medical care, and billions more on people who are unproductive cause of their illness.

        Is that not enough to everyone?

        What about USA gaining supremacy over Japan and EU based car manufacturers? Is that not enough?

        1. przemo_li says:

          EU is crazy right now on CO2…

          Only disealgate moved a needle a bit. But only for diesel engines 😐

          USA historically cared more for health aspect. Lucky You.

        2. TomArt says:

          Excellent points.

  35. My guess is 40K day 1, 100K week 1. There will probably be a double-peak in reservation rates – the first one on the day of, when everyone who already wants to put the reservation in will do so, and the second one when press reports on ‘record numbers’ and more general public and people on the fence will go in to not lose out.

  36. Mario Landry says:

    The number of “reservation” has no real importance in my opinion. The important thing is that Tesla is able to quickly deliver what it promised.

    A vehicle with a quality basic equipment out of the ordinary with real autonomy over 320 km advertised price.

    After … what will determine the success is the speed of delivery models 3. This factor could even determine the survival or not of Tesla.

    =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

    Le nombre de “réservation” n’a pas réellement d’importance à mon avis. L’important est que Tesla soit en mesure de livrer rapidement ce qu’il a promis.

    Un véhicule de qualité avec un équipement de base hors de l’ordinaire avec une autonomie réelle de plus de 320 km au prix annoncé.

    Après… ce qui déterminera le succès sera la rapidité de livraison des modèles 3. Ce facteur pourrait même déterminer la survie ou non de Tesla.

  37. Gerhard Hauer says:

    The Koch brither will invest millions in badmouthing the III.
    But fxxx them.

    I do not see 100k within 24 hrs of reveal.
    But interest is not only in the EV circles.
    This car is priced like our company cars and that changes a lot.

  38. Ian says:

    The thing is optimistically if tesla pumps out the model 3 spring 2017 and you don’t put a deposit down it might be 2019 before you get your car. (If they get 100 000 orders and make 50 000 a year)That alone will push early pre orders numbers higher.

  39. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

    Possible but won’t happen.

  40. MTN Ranger says:

    I know I’ll be waiting at my local showroom/service center around 9am on Thursday.

  41. techie says:

    Anyone???

    1. mr. M says:

      Yes, here. Fell free to ask.

  42. Raimonds says:

    It will be clear after just seeing the car. For example, if it’s attractive – 70k in first 24 hours, + autopilot(increase price, no matter) – than it could rise up to 150k, if some kind of big media writes great report – 200k in first 2 days guaranted.

  43. Boris says:

    180k in 24 hours. *mic drop*