10% Of Norway’s Passenger Vehicles Are Plug Ins

NOV 7 2018 BY MARK KANE 48

10% of passenger cars in Norway are either all-electric or plug-in hybrid.

Recently, we reported that all-electric accounts for about the 6.5% of total number of passenger cars in Norway where sales of plug-ins already exceed 50% on a monthly basis.

After October, it seems that we can announce that 10% of passenger cars in Norway are plug-ins. That’s unbelievable if yo consider that on one hand you can count all of the countries where market share is 10% or more.

According to official data (OFV and Norsk elbilforening) – as of the end of September – there were:

  • 2,728,043
  • 183,637 BEVs
  • 89,922 PHEVs

Including 13,616 additional registrations in October (including 4,496 new BEVs, 1,094 used BEVs and 1,970 new PHEVs) there is about 281,119 plug-ins in a market of almost 2.741 million cars, which translates to 10.2%. We assume that there could be some inaccuracies, but without doubt, the 10% mark was reached.

About 6.9% of the fleet is all-electric and another 3.3% is plug-in hybrid.

The question is whether Norway will be able to reach 20% by the end of 2019 or rather will it be in the range of 15-20%.

Hat tip to Emc2!!!

source: OFV, Norsk elbilforening

Categories: Sales

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48 Comments on "10% Of Norway’s Passenger Vehicles Are Plug Ins"

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F150 Brian

I don’t know the Norwegian market. Is 13,616 low for total passenger sales in one month?

If it is typical and we see huge growth in Plug-in registrations (say to 75% of new registrations), that would put next year’s total at about 125,000 plugins, or slightly less than 5% of all registered vehicles.

It goes to show that even in a very successful plug-in market, it will take a long time for plug-ins to replace ICE unless they do something to incent retirement of ICE vehicles.

Emc2

Yes indeed, Norway is a small market, about 160,000 new car registrations per year. Norway achieved 1% of plug-ins on the road in March 2014, 5% in December 2016, and now 10% in October 2018. And as reported by Inside EVs, both in September and October the segment’s market share has been above 50%.
You have to consider that to renew the entire stock of motor vehicles in a given country takes between 15 to 20 years, depending on the country’s regulations for clunkers on the road. So, it is indeed a long term process, the sooner you start the better.

ffbj

Hardly accurate when they say they will ban petrol cars by 2025.
Though in most cases that would be correct, 15-20 years, but Norway is a special case.

Emc2

I think the ban is for new car sales only. People make an investment when purchasing a vehicle, so I don’t think any government will take that asset away from their citizens. I think the used car market will take quite a hit, but buyers know in advance what happens in 2025. The answer might be the end of subsidies/tax exemption for electric cars combined with a cash for clunkers program instead.

JoeInTheUK

Will the used car market take a hit ? Seems to me it’s also possible it will hold up since people who really want or need an ICE or justa particular type of car (there are many segments of the car market not yet served by EVs) will be buying from a limited pool. This is offset somewhat by the fact they can do a personal import from other European countries.

Gasbag

According to the ACEA the average age of cars in Norway was 10.6 years as of 2016. Ergo Norway replaces about 9% of her fleet per year. If 55% of sales are EVs it follows that about 5% of Norway’s fleet would be replaced by EVs this year.
At 100% new car sales per year it would be about 9% of Norway’s fleet per year.

A small number of vehicles will persist well beyond the average. We have 100 year old ICEVs and EVs but longer lasting vehicles are factored into the average.

rad

Correct me if I am wrong, but …If the average age is 10.6 years (half newer, half older), then the average lifespan for an auto in Norway is 21.2. Therefore, the replacement rate is less than 5% per year.

Gasbag

“Correct me if I am wrong, but”

You’re right. Double the time.

andi_nan

No, not correct! The numbers of 21.2 years for an average lifespan for a car in Norway should at least moved one eyebrow.

Davek

I don’t think that math works out. First of all, average is… well it’s the average. So if 99% of the cars were one year old and 1% were 961 years old (unlikely, granted), that would still work out to an average of 10.6 years, even if that 99% all died next year. The average age can’t tell you anything about the average lifespan or the replacement rate. You might be able to make some educated guesses based on a normal distribution, but that’s more advanced math than is appropriate for a comment section 😉

The point at which half are newer and half are older is called the median, and that’s not given here, IIRC.

Gasbag
@davek Without variance or distribution the median is no better. If the variance and distribution are reasonably stable /even hen the median and average are likely close. A real world example would be the average numbers of new cars sold (per cars sales base.com) for Norway. The median and the average since 1997 (that is as far as they had data available) are within 0.5% which is not significant in this calculation. Where this math actually falls apart is the import/export of used EVs and ICEVs. Wikipedia mentions that imported Used EVs constitute 10% of their fleet. It would seem plausible that some used ICEVs are exported but I haven’t seen data available on that. I confess I read the headline and not the article before posting. The authors methodology is simpler and more accurate but we would need the same info for at least one prior year to project the trend. emc2 gives info in a post above that indicates Norway increased from 1% to 4% in 33 months and then from 4 to 10.2 (from article) in 22 months. Obviously their adoption rate was/is accelerating. Even if it were linear over the last 22 months and that rate… Read more »
drpawansharma

The problem is that the gas stations would shut down much before all the ICE are out of circulation. They won’t be able to sustain themselves with smaller pool of cars.

Davek

Problem? That sounds to me like a solution! 😀

Do Not Read Between The Lines

It would take a _long_ time.

In my small city there are 6 gas stations. In the neighboring small towns there are at least 2, 3 and 3 respectively. And a lot of the traffic at these gas stations is people making dedicated trips to use the convenience store. Convenience store is how the stations make their money.

In rural areas, there are more often convenience stores with a couple of old gas pumps.

So, you would see a significant reduction in number of gas stations, , and you’d see some increase in fuel price, but given the sunk investment gas stations would take a long time to disappear.

Fungus

Gas stations in Norway are considering chargers instead. Circle K already have a plan for this.
So i guess capacity for fossil fuel will scale down.
You dont go cold turkey on this, because there is still money to earn selling gas and diesel.
But getting thos BEV people inside your «gas station» to eat and drink for 30 minutes while charging can be a new «gold-mine».
You will then earn on both charging, and food.

ffbj

How about banning them from the roads in 8 years. Is that incentive enough. Oh I see you said you don’t know the Norwegian market. Clearly.

Udi

As someone else said, they will only be banning sales of new ICE cars, not banning ICE cars from driving on the roads.

It will take at least 20 years before all ICE cars are gone from Norway’s roads.

andi_nan

In 10 Years EVs will be more than 70%. So yes, it will take at least 20 years, but you will see Norway as an almost only EV country much much earlier.

In 10 years it is unlikely that more than 70% of cars are EVs in Norway.

Udi

Since only 5-6% of cars are replaced every year in Norway, in 10 years the maximum share of EVs can be 60%, and that will happen only if the average EV share is >80% in the next 10 years.

Fungus

Norway already have «banned», with allowing BEVs to use the bus commute lanes. But that will be removed of course.
And it cost extra thru tollstations (which there are a lot of) for diesel cars. That is extra compared to gas. BEVs are free, or half price of gas.

Driving a diesel car the 500km from where i live to Oslo capitol will cost around 400,- NOK i guess in tolls.

Unless they start some mass exportation of old ICE vehicles there is almost no chance for them to reach 15% next year already.
Replacing the fleet is a slow job even at 100% EV sales.

Fungus

That might happen, if prices inside Norway drop enoug on used ICE.
When Denmark removed their EVs incentives (might not have been their smartest move), a lot of Norwegian used Tesla’s was exported to Denmark.
Being small makes agile.

Kakosh

It will be interesting to see the impact on oil consumption, which peaked in Norway in 2007 at 238K bpd. https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=no&product=oil&graph=consumption

I wonder what percentage of oil consumed in Norway (and other countries) is for cars.

Gasbag

“It will be interesting to see the impact on oil ”

We could start to see that when stats for 2017 were released. In 2017 Motor gasoline sales declined by 2.9%, dutiable diesel fell by 2.7%, and duty-free diesel declined by 2.6%. there are other factors like an increasing population, lower oil prices, etc but the EV numbers are becoming large enough to now have a discerable impact. I’d expect annual declines in the 3-6% range over the next few years.

Emc2

Check here the stats up to 2017
https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/petroleumsalg/aar
Most consumption in the country is transport, but for road vehicles is abou 60%. Air transport and maritime rank next.

Q1 2018 was up 2,2% compared to Q1 2017. We will see reductions soon, but not as much and as fast as some expect.

Fungus

I read somewhere that every 1000 busses that are swapped from diesel to EV will reduce oil spending by around 500 barrels a day.
Not much, but china alone has way over 300.000 EV busses now, and its growing fast.

Jessica L Feinleib

My Norwegian Mother has a BEV and I am 1/2 Norwegian and have a BEV and PHEV So maybe it is a genetic thing…..

Ocean Railroader

I think what is holding EV sales back even in EV strong holds is the production and sales of EV’s.

Such as Nissan and GM and even Tesla have been slow to ship in EV’s into Norway.

A example is I really think of Nissian doubled their new generation leaf production they could send in a 1,000 extra leafs into Norway every four weeks and really raise sales.

Another thing I don’t understand after driving though Iceland and spending $300 in gasoline in two days in Iceland I’m shocked they don’t start trying to make the masses of EV’s go gushing into Iceland which has a 300,000 car strong population.

Fungus

Yup, the waiting lists underline that thought. The Kona is good example. They had to stop the reservations in Norway, because the numbers got to high.
Like: «ohh no, over 10.000 reservations! And we who only planned on building 2.000 cars per year. What shall we do now? Build more? Naaaah, i think we just stop reservations.»

arne-nl

The environmental impact may be even bigger than the numbers suggest, given the fact that newer cars in general are driven more than older cars, the number of car-km’s that are electric might even be higher than 10% (depends on how much the PHEV’s run on petrol).

olaf

Agreed. I think at 50% market share probably you are at 90% of the kilometers driven

super390

In America vast numbers of old clunkers sit in yards unused; others are owned by old people who rarely drive. But Japan is wildly different due to tough regulations. The average car is pretty new and almost definitely is being driven.

Miles

I think you will see a large spike in sales here in Norway when the model 3 starts shipping in volume. There is quite a bit of pent up demand at the moment that the other car companies are not able to meet.

andi_nan

Model 3, E-Tron, Leaf, etc. etc. Norway is going to absorbe everything the can get.

Matthew Kennel

I’m very happy for Norway, but the population of Norway is only slightly more than half of the population of Los Angeles county.

If manufacturers have problems supplying Norway, the electrification of the planet is far too long off.

Heisenberght 3.0

I have not been following the news lately… Anyone knowing when model 3 will hit the Norwegian market?

Udi

According to Elon Musk, Model 3 will hit Europe in March.
But realistically, we are looking at between April to June.

Fungus

It will be havoc 🙂
I hope the first boat has extra car carriers onboard.

And will be interesting to see if the community is being rallied to help out thru that first wave.

PERE

Nice statistics. And after considering not just vehicle figures but km done by those, I am sure the share is at least 50 % higher. New cars run for more km than old ones. Cars running more than 30,000 km/year are renewed more often than cars used for less than 15,000 km/year

David

How soon will they get to 50%?

My guess is within four years.

Doggydogworld

EV sales would have to be >150% of the market for that.

Udi

5-6% of cars are replaced each year in Norway, to in 4 years the EV share will be between 22-25%.

Leeper

It will be interesting to see when the death spiral for gas stations starts. I’d like stats on when the percentage of EV on the road impacts the profits of station owners to the point they close up shop.

Fungus

They are already moving to electric charging. Lead by Circle K, who is owned by Couche Tard.

Heisenberght 3.0

Great news again from Norway.

In other news… Finally other types of diesel powered equipment are getting competitors

https://www.recyclingmagazin.de/2018/09/19/erster-radlader-mit-lithium-ionen-technik/

Not sure if the claim to be the first is correct but nonetheless it is good to see that the evolution is continuing in various sectors…

Go Norway. Go electric!

Bigtanuki

My wife and I spent some time in Norway this last spring while on vacation. It was fantastic seeing EVs everywhere. Nissan leafs were the most prevalent but you also couldn’t go more than a few minutes without seeing a Tesla. Go Norway!