Tesla Predictions & Report Card

1 year ago by Tesla Mondo 2

TESLAMONDO PREDICTIONS, REPORT CARD

Criswell predicts TeslaMondo*Editor’s Note: InsideEVs has an open working relationship with TeslaMondo. As one of the premier Tesla-only sites on the Internet, TeslaMondo is often in a position to focus intensively on Tesla. This includes making predictions as to where Tesla is headed in the future.

Below is a list of TeslaMondo predictions from the past few years, as well a a look at how those predictions panned out. Media loves being right, but more often than not is wrong. However, when the focus is on just one automaker, it’s more likely that you’ll get it right, as seen in the TeslaMondo post below.

(May 26, 2014) Prediction: Gigafactory would come to Reno. Rationale: A detailed comparison of two images. Result: The factory did come to Reno, albeit not on the photographed property. Hey, if SpaceX can successfully land a rocket slightly off target without detracting from the wonder of it all, TeslaMondo can land a prediction a few miles off.

(May 21, 2014) Prediction: Panasonic would soon stop feigning reluctance and sign on as Gig investor. Rationale: Panasonic’s filings showed that its battery supply contracts and home eco solutions were two of the company’s few bright spots, so the company’s wishy-washy sound bites were just a ploy for better Gig contract terms and a show of diligence for Panasonic investors who were a little nervous about this Gig idea. Result: Panasonic Signed up May 23, 2014.

(Oct 1, 2014) Prediction: The “D” was actually a Model S variant. Rationale: Comparison of two images. Result: It was indeed a Model S variant. This post had the highest view count in TeslaMondo’s brief history (almost 7k views).

(Dec 18, 2014) Prediction: Gas prices would have zero impact on Tesla’s business despite Morgan Stanley’s prediction that Model III would suffer. Rationale: Tesla sells excitement first, green cred and gas savings second. Result: TeslaMondo correct. Stanley wrong. So why is Stanley paid better?

(Aug 1, 2015) Prediction: Something fishy in Model X windshield/roof transition.Rationale: Area was inexplicably masked on test mules, and early “nude” photo revealed a conspicuously smooth cranium. Result: Correct. This was one of TeslaMondo’s most-linked posts.

(Oct 23, 2015) Prediction: Model III would generate too many orders, far exceeding anyone’s expectations. Rationale: Chatter among customers at car dealerships, social media. Result: Too many orders indeed. Tesla doesn’t even update the number anymore because it risks becoming a negative instead of a positive.

(Sept. 26, 2105) Prediction: VW diesel weasel scandal would provide a cover for other automakers to zing their dirty laundry along the clothesline without maximum media attention. Rationale: Every automaker is borderline criminal. Result: Raids on offices of Citroen and affiliates, and now Mitsubishi’s disclosure about bullshit fuel economy claims. This screen shot from Automotive News illustrates the buffer effect perfectly.

Screen Shot 2016-04-27 at 6.40.23 AM

Predictions still open:

  • Musk out as CEO around 2017. Seems too early now. More like 2021.
  • Consumer Reports will give Model III some black dots, but nobody will care. This seems increasingly likely given the muted impact of recent CR notes about Model X problems.
  • Tesla to open design process to the public, resulting in wiki-car. Model III nose design seems a perfect opportunity to experiment with this.
  • FCA CEO Marchionne will regret his open flouting of EVs. Hasn’t happened yet. He’s dissing EVs again, this time while waving a Ferrari flag. Funny, because Ferrari already has a hybrid. If an electric Ferrari is obscene, a hybrid Ferrari is a French late-night cable TV movie from the early 1980s.

Incorrect predictions:

  • For the sake of brevity, TeslaMondo has omitted them at this time.

*Editor’s Note: This and other Tesla-related posts appear on TeslaMondo. Check it out here.

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2 responses to "Tesla Predictions & Report Card"

  1. This InsideEVs article “sponsored by TeslaMondo”. 😉

    While a very interesting review, it would have come across better for an InsideEVs regular do the review. Perhaps it was not, for the sake of brevity.

  2. Jim Whitehead says:

    TeslaMondo uses great non-traditional sources like excited chatter from social media and some dealers they know. (Spreadsheets are great if you want to “predict” the past). TeslaMondo uses some of the same social media used by a few non-traditional mutual fund managers: see whats “hot” in purchases of teenage boys and girls and scoop up their stocks before the quarterly results come out.