Tesla Motors Stock Prices to Hit $200 in 5 Years?

4 years ago by Eric Loveday 9

Longboard Asset Management Predicts Tesla's Future Stock Prices

Longboard Asset Management Predicts Tesla’s Future Stock Prices

Guessing future stock prices is not something we here at InsideEVs do.

Is Tesla the Next Apple?

Is Tesla the Next Apple?

For that, we turn to the so-called professionals in the field.

One of the self-proclaimed leaders in guessing future stock prices is a firm by the name of Longboard Asset Management.

Here’s what we know of Longboard, swiped straight from the site’s “About Us” section:

An alternative approach to navigating the investment ocean

Longboard is an asset management firm specializing in trend following managed futures strategies. The firm’s principals have been investing in and researching trend following strategies since the late 1990s.

With that limited info now out there, here’s what Longboard says will come of Tesla Motors’ stock:

“It is our view that Tesla common stock will trade at $100 per share within 18 months and $200 per share within the next 5 years.”

Now, we’re not gonna counter this assessment because stocks aren’t part of our InsideEVs game plan, but we will say that since Tesla offered its IPO at $17 per share back in mid-2010, stock prices have soared to comfortably above $50, reaching as high as $58.32 at time of press (real-time quote can be found here).  So, perhaps Longboard is on to something here.  Thoughts?

Follow the link below to check out all of Longboard’s presentational slides on Tesla Motors.

via Longboard Asset Management

Tags: , , , , , , ,

9 responses to "Tesla Motors Stock Prices to Hit $200 in 5 Years?"

  1. Josh says:

    Guessing at TSLAs future price is definitely a dubious task. To me it seems like there are really only two possible outcomes:

    1. Tesla survives to develop, manufacture, and sell a full line of premium vehicles. In that case the company would end up with a valuation of at least a Porsche ($20 – $25 B, or $200/share) and maybe as high as BMW or Mercedes ($50 – $60 B, or $400/share).

    2. Tesla does not survive and their stock valuation crashes. There is probably a floor on the value of their technology at maybe $1 B, or $9/share. Toyota or someone would likely buy them out to get their talented development team and IP. Unlike Fisker, I think Tesla has some brand value and the name could live on under a larger automaker.

  2. kdawg says:

    LOL, stock advice, where’s Jim Kramer with the sound effects?

    I predict we will know the stock price in 18 months… in 18 months.

    Unless it’s Nate Silver predicting the election results.. i’m not going to invest based on speculation.

  3. Nelson says:

    It all depends on the competition and its price. If a competitor comes out with a with 200-250 mile luxury (or well equipped) sedan BEV, priced well below the Model S, Telsa sales might drop. Sales drops so will the share price.
    Don’t bet against no competition. Look at Apple and Samsung.

    NPNS!
    Volt#671

  4. Anthony says:

    Just because Elon Musk is the next Steve Jobs, doesn’t mean Tesla or SpaceX stock will do what Apple stock has done in the last 10 years. The consumer electronics and technology industry are advancing at a much faster pace than batteries, 40-50% per year in transistor density, versus 8-10% battery improvement).

    1. Bonaire says:

      It’s more like they delivered an application delivery system to the masses. Tesla isn’t doing anything for the masses right now. Even Gen-3 will be more expensive than most 4-door vehicles on the new-car market.

      But – Panasonic and others are making more energy-dense batteries and the continued R&D will indeed bring forth higher-density batteries. There will become a point in time when the density is good enough. Perhaps the same size battery as used now but 400 to 500 mile range. We don’t need the transistor jump that took us from Intel 33/MHz processors to 3.5/GHz processors. We need a factor of about 3x the current Li-Ion density along with a halving of the price to make EVs cost-balanced with ICE cars.

      1. Anthony says:

        Agreed that we don’t need 1000x growth in 30 years to put gasoline out to pasture, but the problem with the technology industry is that its throwing off everyone’s perception of how fast growth should be. It used to take 30+ years for an industry to mature, meanwhile stand alone MP3 players went from bad in the late 90s to great in the mid 2000s to obsolete because of the smartphone in 2010. And now, even smartphones are beginning to mature – the iPhone 5 and SG4 are “mature” smartphone products after only 4-5 generations of development.

        In other words, people expect batteries to advance as fast as transistors. Its not going to happen. Its this misguided idea and screwed up time horizons that cause people to expect huge profits in 2 years instead of 5 or 10.

      2. David Murray says:

        Actually, the range Tesla has NOW on their vehicles is more than some gasoline vehicles. I’d say the range they have NOW is GOOD ENOUGH and all that needs to happen is reducing the cost.

  5. Jason says:

    This stock is far underrated. If Tesla can afford the former Aston Martin chief engineer, Chris Porrit, that kind of leads me to believe they did really good in the first quarter. Secondly, their patent for a hybrid dual battery system utilizing metal air batteries to charge the primary lithium ion battery means that current owners might be able to trade up to new tech and increase their range when replacement time comes along. I think this is exactly why they are confident enough to promise such a high resale value, but this is purely fun speculation. The possibilities and applications for current and future tech in this realm are endless. There were even recent scientific breakthroughs in solar panel technology which means thanks to engineers like Musk one day we might all be using clean renewable energy as our primary fuel source. I’d like to give a special thanks to all the “shorts” out there, your EV bias is padding my pockets while I write this. Last I checked Tesla was up $3.65.