Tesla Motors: Model 3 Planned For 2018 (Update – Tesla Re-Confirms 2017 Production)

11 months ago by Eric Loveday 125

Model 3 Coming In 2018

Model 3 Coming In 2018

conference

Via This Conference & The Slides Presented, We Discover That The Tesla Model 3 Has Been Delayed Until 2018

According to an official Tesla document, the upcoming $35,000 Tesla Model 3 has apparently been delayed.

Tesla had long promised that the 200-plus mile Model 3 would arrive at least in limited production in late 2017, but now (via an official Tesla Motors slide presentation released at the 2015 EIA Conference on June 15 in Washington, D.C.) we’ve learned that the Model 3 is now “planned for 2018.”

JB Straubel, chief technical officer and co-founder of Tesla Motors, made the presentation in D.C.  The Model 3 delay is clearly detailed in the slide above.

Update:  We spoke to Tesla on the slide at some length – details below.

Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk went on record stating that Tesla is hoping to show the Model 3 in March of next year,” which may still be true, but his comment that “late 2017 is probably more realistic” for the Model 3 now seems to be questionable.

It’s no surprise to us that the Model 3 is perhaps being delayed, but to see the delay in print this far ahead of the Model 3’s expected release is actually rather surprising to us.

The concern is, will those waiting for the Model 3 be willing to wait even longer for one of the most-anticipated electric cars of all time?  Or will those potential Model 3 buyers instead go for the upcoming Chevrolet Bolt, longer-range, next-generation Nissan LEAF or one of the several other electric cars expected to launch between now and 2018?

Ricardo Reyes Tweets Model 3 Will "Begin Production" In 2017

Ricardo Reyes Tweets Model 3 Will “Begin Production” In 2017

Update (June 22nd, 11:59 am): Ricardo Reyes, Tesla’s Communication Chief has now tweeted an update saying the Model 3 will still “begin production in 2017“.   Given how we only published and reflected on Tesla’s own slide in this case, we aren’t sure how we have given a “speculative blogger report”, but we can understand how confusion can arise.

Update 2 (June 22nd, 1:45pm):  We spoke to a Tesla representative this afternoon and they re-iterated as well to us that the Model 3 is still “on track” for production in late 2017, and that the slide is meant to reference “full production” of the Model 3 in 2018.

 

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125 responses to "Tesla Motors: Model 3 Planned For 2018 (Update – Tesla Re-Confirms 2017 Production)"

  1. James says:

    Since we know the Bolt is a CUV from the spy shots already out there of the test mule driving around GM’s test facilities, I don’t really think this is any shocking news.

    Tesla opens with a sedan, and follows with a CUV, right? So if Bolt is out there, merrily selling 30,000 copies in 2017, I don’t think there will be a big impact on those of us already awaiting a sleek four door Tesla. Good things come to those who wait.

    This may only mean there’ll be more garages with a Bolt and Model III in them in 2018.

    1. MTN Ranger says:

      I agree. I’ll be purchasing a Bolt when it comes out in late 2016/early 2017. There will be plenty of time to upgrade to a Model 3 four years after that.

      1. Ryan says:

        If the Bolt beats the Model 3 to the market and is a halfway decent vehicle I wouldn’t be opposed to owning one, even if it is only for a year or two… but it will get dropped the second my Model 3 ships!

        1. PaulG says:

          They had a Bolt at the DC auto show. We weren’t allowed in it (or drive it) on Press day, but they were pretty open with information about it.

        2. ACG says:

          I concur! This brings new meaning to the term drop ship.

      2. Trev says:

        GM doesn’t have any Supercharger-like technology so for me a 200 mile EV is going to be a Tesla. If I’m spending $35K+ (more like $50K once you’re done adding options, AWD and a bigger battery) I want a car that can GO PLACES and not worry about how long it will take to charge it. Sure, the Bolt *might* be able to get 200 miles on a good day but then I have to charge it on a level 2 40 Amp circuit for several hours. Tesla is the only company offering a complete solution.

    2. Priusmaniac says:

      The bolt only seat four so it is not comparable to the Model 3.

      1. Raymondjram says:

        The Bolt Ev being tested NOW has five seats, not four. The Model 3? WHo knows?

  2. bro1999 says:

    In other news, the sun came up today.

    I’m wondering how accurate the “3-4 month” window for the first Model X deliveries is now…

    1. Tim F. says:

      At this point Model X is well into its final validation and the tangible pieces required to start production are falling into place. With the amount that they’ve reiterated the end of Q3 target, any last minute delays that pop up should be measured in days or weeks, not months.

      Model 3 is too far out to have firm deadlines now. Late 2017 may be the target, but 2018 is a safer bet. However, Tesla’s business plan and stock price is highly dependent on it, and they will do everything they can to avoid long Model X-style delays.

      1. Three Electrics says:

        Unfortunately Tesla has talked about earlier, missed dates with equal sincerity. The reality is that Tesla is a very aggressive company with a CEO who cannot be controlled by his SEC-minding attorneys, and is prone to making assertions that walk a fine line of crazy. I feel that Elon’s public statements regarding dates are a combination of wishful thinking, a means to motivate Tesla employees, and a tactic to keep Tesla’s cost of capital low by pumping the stock.

        1. tftf says:

          “Unfortunately Tesla has talked about earlier, missed dates with equal sincerity. The reality is that Tesla is a very aggressive company with a CEO who cannot be controlled by his SEC-minding attorneys, and is prone to making assertions that walk a fine line of crazy. I feel that Elon’s public statements regarding dates are a combination of wishful thinking, a means to motivate Tesla employees, and a tactic to keep Tesla’s cost of capital low by pumping the stock.”

          May I just add the lack of focus. The CEO spends half his work-time launching rockets into space.

          You can’t serve all masters, this won’t be Tesla’s last delay.

          1. JAR says:

            I’m pretty sure “lack of focus” is a completely absurd thing to say in regards to Elon Musk… The man has been obscenely focused on his goal of pushing humanity forwards – of which Tesla and electric vehicles I’m general is part- since before he even started either company. Have a peek at his biography… It’s a compelling read, even if you dislike his antics.

            1. ffbj says:

              Really. It is sort of hard to take someone with such enormous drive and accomplishments being described as not focused.
              When people make such patently ridiculous statements such as that, I must admit I tend to disregard their other comments as a matter of course.

              1. Three Electrics says:

                Drive and accomplishment (and luck) are not synonymous with focus. There are plenty of successful people in the world who have terrible focus. Heck, he may *require* a lack of focus in order to operate.

                When you look at the continuing delays in Tesla’s critical efforts and contrast them with the amount of time Musk and Tesla engineers have spent on the hyperloop, and the fact that Musk is involved in three companies, it is the very definition of unfocused. To claim otherwise is to claim that Elon cannot work any harder on Tesla than he currently is.

          2. ACG says:

            Oh ye of little ambitions and sight of the future. Its not for everyone to understand greatness. The lessers have always frowned down upon them out of sheer ignorance. Then it always becomes their children that enjoy the works of those their parents used to scorn.

      2. Trev says:

        In all honesty, Model X was shown WAY too early. They showed Model X 6 months *before* Model S was even in production!!
        Tesla should have waited until they had Model S production ramped up and had the Panasonic battery production increase sorted out before they announced Model X. Tesla has said many times that Model X was not a requirement to get to the mass market car, Model 3, but it took them longer to develop because of lack of resources and distractions (Model S demand took them by surprise).

        They have surely learned from this mistake so I expect Model 3 will follow their schedule very tightly as the whole company is riding on this model. The Gigafactory is being built and completed in stages to meet battery demand for Model 3 ramp up, they have way more employees than 2012, last count was over 11,000, they have a new paint plant in place, they’ve sorted out Model S production… If you paid close attention to what Tesla has done and achieved since 2012 you’d understand they’re a much more mature company today. Yes, I follow this company *very* closely, I’m invested in them but also an informed observer too so I have to say they’re very focussed now that Model X is done and ready to go. It’s all hands on deck for Model 3 now.

  3. Marshal G says:

    That’s fine with me, my target for saving up for the Model3 was mid 2018 anyway.

    1. ACG says:

      I am putting 5k away a year to cut that loan in 1/2.

  4. Waiting says:

    WTF!!! I ain’t getting any younger. TESLA, stop screwing around with other ventures and get the damn Model 3 built!!

  5. Brian says:

    “The concern is, will those waiting for the Model 3 be willing to wait even longer for one of the most-anticipated electric cars of all time?”

    The mainstream market doesn’t really “wait” for a particular car. These buyers simply wait until THEY are ready for a new car, not until the car is ready for them. Since the Model III is targetting a mainstream buyer rather than the early adopters, the above question is moot. There is always a steady stream of mainstream buyers. Whenever Tesla gets to market, they will be there, buying cars.

    This question only really applies to the early adopter crowd (which is most of us who read this site). But that’s a much smaller chunk of the market, to whom being the “first” is important. The rest care much more about the value / utility / etc of the vehicle rather than who came first. Case in point – Honda beat Toyota to the US with a hybrid, yet Toyota dominants sales because they have a (generally speaking) superior product.

    1. James says:

      +1

      That is a very cogent, insightful point. We early adopter-types fret over every detail. The general public? Nope! They could care less – and keep on buying $50,000 Audis until then. When one of those buyers sees Tesla has an option at a similar pricepoint they’ll go take a look and one drive will seal the deal.

      Once the EV snowball starts picking up speed, I predict you will be amazed how fast it builds and builds. We are still in the EV infancy. The price of lithium cells will go down and then it’s on like Donkey Kong.

      1. Ziv says:

        James, Back in 2009 I thought that electric cars would take off within two to three years of the arrival of the Leaf and the Volt. It hasn’t happened. I am not entirely certain that the Bolt and the Tesla III will do THAT much better unless gasoline goes back over $3 a gallon by a good bit in most of the country.
        I love my Volt but there aren’t a lot of people that share that feeling for electric cars. Yet.

        1. Samuel Hoogendoorn says:

          Why on earth would EVs take off with expensive, small, slow, ugly EVs? When the Leaf was first introduced, it appealed only to those who already want an EV. The Chevy Volt on the other hand is a great car, but all the misinformation and negative press surrounding it prevented it from selling better; that and its absurd $40,000 price tag.

          People want usable range in an EV and quick charge capability. That is finally being realized in a big way with Tesla and their Superchargers. All the others with their sub-100 mile ranges, underwhelming performance, and DC “fast” chargers (50-70kW) are not very desirable for most people.

          Do you not think that 200-miles of “real-world range,” beautiful lines, good passenger and cargo space, good performance, great safety, lots of tech and features, with greatly reduced running cost is desirable?

          If Tesla Motors can deliver something 80% the size of the Model S at half the price, it’s going to be a smashing success.

          1. Ziv says:

            80% of the size of an S is the Honda Fit. A sub-compact. If the III is a subcompact, even a really roomy subcompact like the Fit, do you think it will be worth $37,500? I think the III is going to be bigger than 80% of the size of the S, and later than originally predicted, and more expensive than originally predicted. And it will be a very nice car. But the Bolt and the Leaf II will take a large chunk out of its sales simply by being there a year earlier.

            1. EVguy says:

              Musk has stated that Model 3 will be comparable to a BMW 3-series. It will still be a premium vehicle, with performance and ‘luxury’. It is not meant to compete with bolt or leaf, just like a fit doesn’t compete with a 3 series. Also, 80% might be 85%, really its just an estimate. I expect seating for 5, but probably tighter than current model s

              1. Priusmaniac says:

                +1

                If the Model 3 was 80 % in length it would be less than 4 m long, that is much less than a 3 series at 4,6 m.

                More likely is that the Model 3 would be 80% of the weight at just under 1700 Kg.

                We will have to wait and see but there is no sense to have a sub 4,6 m cars at that kind of price.

    2. Ryan says:

      Whether certain people buy something else first or not, I really doubt that the Model 3 is going to be demand constrained. There will be no shortage of sales ready to pop at it’s arrival.

    3. Scramjett says:

      +2

      This is a very good point. You don’t gain market dominance by being first, you gain it by being best. If the Model III is better than the Bolt in every way, then Tesla will have no problem selling it. I have more faith in Tesla to deliver a superior, compelling product than GM.

      Mind you that’s not to say GM can’t deliver a good product, as seen with the Volt, but compelling is another story. I like the second gen Volt, and I think the Bolt will be nice, but I’m not compelled to get either. I am, however, very compelled to get a Tesla.

  6. Assaf says:

    Let’s be realistic: we’ll be lucky to see the Model 3 in 2018.

    Tesla has already achieved amazing feats in its short history. But sticking to timelines and deadlines is certainly *not* one of its known traits 🙂

    On the bright side for me, maybe this will temporarily dent TSLA stock values and I’ll finally get off the fence and buy some…

    1. Scramjett says:

      Ha ha, keep waiting. Looks like the stock is already starting to recover.

  7. pjwood1 says:

    Currently 261 CPO Model S’s to chose from.
    http://www.teslamotors.com/models/preowned

    1. Bonaire says:

      May not include those in-queue waiting to go on the web after others are sold. The total inventory may be as high as 1000+ of CPO cars queued or being-queued up.

    2. Dave Clifford says:

      The CPO used vehicle count should be looked at as a positive, not a negative. If there are 2000 of them, it is mostly happy people who are trading up to the “D” latest and greatest model.

  8. James says:

    The day I start singing, “Yankee Doodle Dandy, the electric car has arrived!” – is the day we see an EV sell 100,000 copies/yr..

    Bolt will dribble out at first, expect a few ZEV states at first, then increased availability over the next six months or so. GM has pronounced very low production numbers. This game of watching EVs come from Nissan and GM like four leaf clovers in context to their flotillas of gasoline-burners will change once Model III does begin selling to the public.

    Just think, the Gigafactory tells us the future is bright. The Gigafactory tells us the Model III will come. When it does, it’s on! While GM isn’t really motivated to push the Bolt into stardom, Tesla’s entire survival depends on the success of Model III.

    All the gas-car companies know Model III is coming. Looking at Gigafactory going up tells them it’s inevitable. They know they have to gear up to compete. 30,000 Bolts or 45,000 LEAFs does not an auto revolution make. 150,000 Model IIIs means it’s beginning to become an irritant under those other companies’ collective skins. This is when it heats up. Suddenly compelling options will appear, almost out of nowhere. At this point, 3-row CUVs and a truck option will appear, and then….then….The days of the explode-and-bang gasoline pig are numbered.

    This will be a great day indeed. One I’ve been patiently looking forward to. It will be like opening a floodgate. Wait for it – Wait forrrrr it….

    1. Shiro says:

      I agree James, one EVs hit over 100K/y sales for a single model then people will stand up and notice.

      I’m planning to buy 2 BEVs in the next 3-5 years with a 2y stagger. If even 1% of population is like me, then I could easily see BEV sales jump to over 10 Million a year world wide, as I think theres a lot of people waiting for these cars to reach maturity.
      At that point as you said a sales explosion will occur, and they will have hard time meeting demand.

      Honestly I don’t think it matters who will sell the most EVs, overall the more the better. I want all the brands to offer good quality ES with min 300km range with prices below 30K.

      Basic math tells me that driving around one car 25K a year I would save a minimum of $2500 at current gasoline prices. It just makes financial sense for families, that could put that money to better use.

      The bright spot right now is that batteries tech appears to be moving at a quick pace right now, LiSulphur, Liquid, Dual carbon & carbon air all look promising, and carbon in particular would solve the batteries pollution during production problem. If any of these technologies will double the current range, a lot more people will switch over I’m sure.

      In the near future this could also provide a new industry for batteries recycling, production, as well as a huge demand for electricians to install the supporting charging infrastructure that will be needed.

      I would love to see by 2020 each car company selling at least a million BEVs a year, maybe, just maybe it could be enough to start lowering the current out of control world carbon dioxide emissions levels.

    2. Scramjett says:

      As much as I’d like to share your exuberance, I really will be waiting for it. Inertia is a hard thing to overcome. Not impossible, but hard. As much as I’d like to see the rEVolution, I remain skeptical.

  9. Doug B says:

    I’m more concerned that without the threat of a more economic Tesla in 2017 that GM and Nissan will also delay their plans for longer range BEVs. This could slow the whole market down.

  10. Steve says:

    Nice hit piece.

    The fact that it says 2018 on that slide doesn’t mean there’s a delay. Who at Tesla did you check your assumptions with? Don’t just regurgitate what someone thinks on TMC.

    The Model 3 will come out in late 2017. Volume deliveries in 2018. That has been known for a long time. Gigafactory will produce the first packs in mid 2016, for Model S/X. Plenty of time to get some packs for Model 3 made.

    Even though you will delete this comment, you have still read it.

    1. Jay Cole says:

      Hey Steve,

      We don’t delete any comments around here (other than for profanities and direct personal attacks), everyone is free to their opionions, (= Not sure how this can be called a hit piece – pretty straight forward and we love the Tesla brand, just sometimes not all the news is “good” news.

      Tesla made and presented this slide, by the CTO/co-founder no less…we passed it along; not sure why (or who) needs to check it out.

      Given other (and frequent) delays with the X, and the recent re-stating/clarification of the 3 to “late 2017”, we don’t feel the presentation of this slide is too surprising.

      1. Taser54 says:

        2019 is looking more and more possible. Look for another pushback next year at this time.

      2. Steve says:

        Just please confirm it with Ricard Reyes. ricardo@teslamotors.com If he confirms it, I will take it all back and kneel before you.

        The slide refers to volume manufacturing/delivery of the car.

        1. Jay Cole says:

          Hey again Steve,

          Can Tesla back-pedal and “clarify” the statement to suggest they will still begin deliver a few cars in 2017? Or more than likely “produce” some cars in 2017? Sure.

          We’d fully expect to see that as it is only mid-2015 and this kind of delay-admission really isn’t necessary at this point.

          However, if you have ever tried to speak to Tesla about anything that doesn’t slip from Elon Musk himself (or his twitter), they are about as closed off and unapproachable as any automotive company in the business in our opinion and always parse their words carefully.

          Again, the CTO presented the slide, we are passing it along. We fully expect Tesla to comment officially at some point, and we will update the story when it happens.

      3. Steve says:

        I think you can get your coat. RR just tweeted:

        “Contrary to speculative blogger reports, we still plan to show Model 3 in 2016 and begin production in 2017.”

        1. Jay Cole says:

          Well there you go. We will add the tweet to the story. Again, not unexpected to get a response once it gets picked up more widely.

          And also not unexpectedly the text is still hedged to say “begin production” in 2017, which could mean a lot of things…it didn’t say “deliver” any Model 3s in 2017.

          The status of “beginning production” is a pretty loose terminology (and one you can’t benchmark independently), you could say the 2016 Volt began production in December/January as well, with the first production-intent cars getting built, but the earliest deliveries are happening 10 months later this Fall.

          Again, Mr. Reyes can say what he likes, but this isn’t a “speculative blogger report”, it is Tesla’s own slide. That is the totality of the content. If they don’t want the Model 3 framed as a product planned for 2018…it is best to not say it.

          1. Taser54 says:

            Again, Tesla with the snide remark,it can’t admit its own error. It was not speculative, it was directly from Tesla.

          2. Steve says:

            I see you are keeping your headline the same. “Tesla Motors says Model 3 Pushed Back”

            That is what the colon in your headline after Tesla Motors means. You’re reporting this as if Tesla Motors said it.

            Firstly, Tesla Motors never said it… it is text in a slide. Secondly, the VP Communications just clarified to the opposite – likely, in specific response to your article today. So… you gonna change your headline or not? Putting the word “updated” at the end doesn’t really change your assertion that Tesla Motors said it in the first place.

            1. Taser54 says:

              Text in a slide was presented by Tesla official. You simply can’t argue with a straight face that the Tesla official said nothing about this slide during the presentation.

              Sheesh.

              1. Jay Cole says:

                Steve,

                Story is in motion, I suggest you hit refresh. However, the “Tesla Motors: Model 3 Planned For 2018” is staying with an update note on clarification from the company, because that is the reality of the thing.

              2. Steve says:

                The words “delay” and “pushed back” are not on the slide. They were brought to the table first by InsideEVs, and they didn’t check things with Tesla before running with that juicy headline/article.

                The slide certainly says “PLANNED FOR 2018” – exactly what is planned for 2018? First delivery? Where does it say that/Who said that?

                1. Ziv says:

                  Exactly, Production and Delivery are two different things.

      4. Jeff N says:

        Sorry, but I agree with Steve that this is a bogus “tabloid”-style article. This slide deck is dated July 15 which is just a week after Elon and JB reiterated at the Edison Electric Institute that the Model 3 was targeted for the last half of 2017. Obviously the July 15 slides were written sometime prior to July 15… Do you really think this is evidence of any sudden change of plans?

        The slide date of “2018” is entirely consistent with US automotive practice of beginning production on vehicles labeled as 2018 model year actually starting production in 2017. For instance, the Chevy Bolt is rumored to start production in late 2016 as a 2017 model year car.

        At the very least, if you are going to run a story like this with a bold headline that strongly implies a delay in plans you should give the company a chance to comment first. By not doing so, you are spreading unwarranted nonsense. This isn’t the first time that there has been a bogus “breaking news” article here like this.

        Stories like this threaten to give this site a reputation for being unserious and unreliable.

        1. Steve says:

          Thank you Jeff N 🙂

        2. sven says:

          Jeff said: “The slide date of “2018” is entirely consistent with US automotive practice of beginning production on vehicles labeled as 2018 model year actually starting production in 2017. For instance, the Chevy Bolt is rumored to start production in late 2016 as a 2017 model year car.”

          But Tesla doesn’t follow the preveiling “US automotive practice.” Tesla model years follows the production date. If the car is made in 2016, then it is a 2016 model year Tesla. A Tesla made on 12/31/16 is a 2016 model year Tesla, while a Tesla made on 1/1/17 is a 2017 model year Tesla.

          1. Jeff N says:

            On June 8, 2015 Elon and JB Straubel were at the Edison Electric Institute convention and were “interviewed” for an hour on stage. This event got some notice in the media since a reporter for a local New Orleans general circulation newspaper, where the event was taking place, misquoted Straubel and Musk as saying that the Model 3 would have at least 250 miles of range — they actually said it would be at least 200 miles and maybe a bit more.

            At this June 8 New Orleans event, Straubel and Musk also reiterated that the Model 3 production was targeted to the last half of 2017 or perhaps “late 2017”. One day later, on June 9, Tesla held a regular quarterly financial disclosure call and did not dispute, correct, or change those remarks from the prior day.

            Now, one is supposed to believe that a cryptic notation on a slide set dated June 15 (but presumably written earlier) For delivery at another convention in Washington DC represents a sudden new delay in Model 3 production as today’s article asserted in the first paragraph or two.

            Sorry, I don’t think so.

        3. Nix says:

          I agree with Steve too, with one cravat.

          Blogs aren’t news outlets like newspapers. Blogs don’t generally have employees who are dedicated fact-checkers, and shouldn’t be regarded the same as a traditional news outlet. Blogs aren’t news outlets, so you can’t expect the same level of fact-checking.

          With that said, I realize that traditional news outlets have gone so far down the tubes that it is getting harder and harder to tell the difference…..

          =)

      5. Scramjett says:

        Hi Jay,

        I’m not agreeing with either you or Steve on this but I would like to point out that the slide is lacking context. We were not there when JB Straubel presented this in DC so we don’t know if there was a “this slide currently says planned for 2018 but we’re aiming to start production sooner” or “oops, we need to change that to 2017!”

        I know that we all like Tesla and that it can be easy to say “aw man!” when we see something like that, but perhaps it is as simple as a slide that needed updating or even a typo. We all need to work on being less reactionary.

      6. ffbj says:

        I already read a few stories from other sources that cited this change. So not a hit piece, IMHO. For instance, the delay, among other things, information, opinion, and misinformation can be found here:
        http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-s-cash-problem-may-not-be-a-problem-at-all-181959734.html

      7. Trace says:

        I can’t even read the slide. Not with Subway’s guac sandwich ad covering one third of it.

    2. ACG says:

      Your comment made the cut. Good posting Steve. I agree completely.

  11. “The Model 3 delay is clearly detailed in the slide above.” Hello – it’s a dot that someone placed about the middle between 2015 and 2020. A few months delay means very little. What Tesla has achived so far is simply amazing. They killed both Tucker and DeLorean but not Tesla even though they would love to as opposed to invent better car themselves.

    This stock will be one of the very best performers the next 5 years IMO.

    1. Taser54 says:

      You need to look again. It CLEARLY says “planned for 2018” on the graphic. Those were Tesla’s words.

  12. Robert Fahey says:

    Late 2017 trickle vs early 2018 flow. Big deal. Not important.

    1. Jeff Songster says:

      Exactly right… this is really not news. Trickle in 2017… full shipping in 2018… and likely important to shareholders… most revenue will come in 2018. Just like most Model X will now occur in 2016 even though it is starting production now and will trickle by the end of this year.

      Good Luck Tesla. Can’t wait to see the Model III. Also looking forward to BOLT though I am more likely to buy a LEAF 2 in 2016/17 timeframe after I get a Model X.

  13. Ocean Railroader says:

    What a Shock that Tesla would doe this.

    Ok everyone you all owe me a $100 bucks each in that I predicted that this would happen.

    1. ffbj says:

      Fortunately for you, I recall your accurate prediction. Unfortunately for you I do not recall placing any bets against your prediction. Therefor the aforesaid $100, you claim I owe you, will not be forthcoming.

  14. George Jetson says:

    2018 is when California ZEV requirements begin to step up and all automakers will feel pressure to increase volume sales…

    http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevregs/1962.2_clean.pdf

    1. przemo_li says:

      Tesla WONT :>

    2. Scramjett says:

      I love the credit calculations! They are all based on range for both TZEVs (PHEVs) and ZEVs. Most importantly, for TZEVs, anything less than an AER of 10 gets 0 credits and for ZEVs, anything less than 50 miles gets 0 credits. Also, in order to reach the 4 credit cap, you have to do better than even the 85D. This is good!

  15. James says:

    The sheer beauty of Model III is that it has built up its rep with S and X. On Father’s Day my family took a short drive to dine out. On my drive ( in middle class-to-upper-middle class territory ) we saw 4 or 5 Teslas without even looking for them. As familiar as they are to me, one of them was so sharp looking, it still turned my head.

    Aspirational buyers now in a Camry, Avalon, Maxima or Acura will move up to a Model III, and “premium brand” buyers in Audis, Lexus, Mercedes and BMW will naturally gravitate over to Model III without losing cache or prestige.

    Keeping that $35,000 pricepoint is key, as they’ve said all along – 3 Series territory. This is the one area all of us are dubious about. It’s crucial, and doable if Gigafactory is there to pump out the battery packs in large volumes. For me, the one aspect that could kill Model III, thus, killing Tesla completely is if the MSRP creeps up to $45,000 and above.

    1. przemo_li says:

      Killing Tesla is not so easy.

      If they stopped gigafactory, they would turn profit on those Tesla S’s

      With X to tap into new territory (and hopefully entirely new production lines) they will have plenty of stuff to sell.

      With gigafactory they can sell 500k cars a year. Profitability guaranteed.

      What they loose at 45$k are sales, not profits.

      (All assuming that they do good 45k$ car that is)

  16. James says:

    If I ran Tesla, I would develop the CUV version of Model III alongside the sedan. This way – no huge span of time between them as in S and X. No flashy doors, just a nice tall station wagon, AWD version that makes the horde of $45,000+ CUVs currently out there look like that laptop you used to carry around that was as thick as a Webster’s Dictionary. Introduce the Model IV one year after Model III. Watch sales go through the roof!

    …Maybe I’m just selfish and want Tesla to hurry up and succeed so they can get on to that all-important bidness o’ building me my 2nd generation Roadster….

    1. Scramjett says:

      I thought JB Straubel recently said that they were co-developing a crossover variant with the Model III sedan? You may get your wish (and mine)!

      For my part, I’ll probably wait at least two years to see what upgrades or “refreshes” they do to it before I actually get one (I’m thinking 2020). That’s not my only reason, but it is one of them.

    2. ffbj says:

      I agree with the last part of your proposition.

  17. sven says:

    What does the AEO acronym in the slide stand for? I checked acronymfinder.com, but didn’t find an answer.

    I found it troubling that the prices of the EV100 and EV200 vehicles didn’t decrease as much as I had expected they would, and how long it took to achieve the smaller than expected price decrease.

    1. Doug (dhanson865) says:

      http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/

      Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015)

      1. sven says:

        Thanks! I actually thought that might be it and googled “Annual Energy Outlook” without including “2015” and the links that came up didn’t seem to relate to the price of an EV100, EV200, or gasoline car. Your link explains it. Thanks again. 😀

  18. The upcoming 42500$ Tesla Model 3

  19. Bonaire says:

    One thought on the Model 3 is that Tesla may want to setup a two-factory approach to the car. Selling the cheaper version in China, and perhaps even making it in China and shipping around the world while the US plant services USA and Canada is possible.

    Batteries could come out of Panasonic Japan into the China plant — then out of the GF into the US plant at Fremont for both cars and storage – in both locations.

    2017 for any kind of large scale (500+ per day) car production is a short-window to setup for Fremont. Then logistics of sales and delivery then come along with that since they own their sales/service dealerships. It’s going to take a lot of cabbage to make a lot of soup.

    1. Bonaire says:

      Oh – and a two-factory approach means money. I suspect they will come to market with a financial cash raise (stock shares) to commit to building either a 2nd GF or 2nd car factory with such news.

      I sold my TSLA stock at $263.12 this morning (even before hearing about this story). I’ll watch from the sidelines.

      1. Mike777 says:

        You should listen to Tesla shareholder meeting video’s.
        Tesla of course has plans to build other GigaFactories. The demand for batteries alone would drive this.

  20. Alonso Perez says:

    Both can be true. The Model III, if sold in small numbers in 2017, would not cost $35K at first. You’d expect the early models, going by Tesla SOP, to be fully loaded (whether called Signature or not is not important), largest battery option, and so on. The $35K price point won’t see the light of day till 2018 and, at any rate, it is more likely that a realistic starting price will be around $39K with supercharging and some other option.

  21. Kaleb says:

    I agree with Brian, I won’t wait around another three years for a car. My Leaf lease is up in 2017 and I will buy the best car I can afford for <$35,000.

  22. InsideEVs is just a bit flamboyant tittle on the article …
    a presentation on June 15, 2015 become “BREAKING” news on June 22, 2015. After a week, breaking should be news that broke (past tense of break).

    Waiting to see the “OMG it’s here” title(s) when the Model Ξ concept is publicly unveiled in 2016 and again when prototypes hit the road in 2017.

    FYI: Guidance from Tesla has been late 2017 introduction for some time, so difference between late-2017 and early-2018 is a few months … in a timeframe 3 years from now.

    The fact that InsodeEVs can get away with calling this “BREAKING” news tells us that this will be the most watch vehicle launch of this millennium.

    Hold on to your seats for another “OMG BREAKING” news headline when the 100,000th Model Ξ is delivered prior to 2020.

  23. DNAinaGoodWay says:

    Given model s & x sales and projected sales, how many model 3s might qualify for a federal rebate before they hit the 200k limit?

  24. Curt Renz says:

    On twitter this hour from Tesla VP of communications Ricardo Reyes:

    “Contrary to speculative blogger reports, we still plan to show Model 3 in 2016 and begin production in 2017.”

    Twitter link: https://twitter.com/ricardor

  25. Dave - Phoenix says:

    Same old Tesla…

    Delivering later than promised at a price that is higher than promised.

    Don’t be surprised if the price pushes up above $40K….

    Tesla’s most important role is pushing the major automakers into building EV’s, including GM. In that regard Tesla has been successful.

    1. Sublime says:

      Tesla will get to filling orders on the $35k model 3 as soon as we work through the backlog of $70k P3D+ Signature Editions.

      For everyone waiting on the actual $35k Model 3, end of 2018 is probably more realistic. That’s not bad news for Tesla, they’ll be production/supply limited on higher margin products.

      1. Spider-Dan says:

        …that is, unless Tesla decides that “demand is not high enough” for the $35k Model III and cancels it altogether.

        There is a precedent for such a development…

  26. CherylG's_DirtyLittleSecret says:

    Meh.
    Was anyone really surprised?

  27. Curt Renz says:

    @Author Eric Loveday

    Did you bother to check with Tesla Motors before excitedly offering “breaking” news about something you or some tipster noticed in a graph shown in a conference a week ago. Apparently not. Shame on you. Checking with the primary source is the first rule of financial reporting. At least it used to be in my day. I’m a retired financial newsman and am aghast at the lack of diligence amid eagerness to quickly “break” a story seen too often on the internet that can affect investment positions.

    1. bro1999 says:

      A similar thing happened with a GM press release in China stating the Bolt EV would have a maximum range of 320 km / 199 miles. Breaking story was published declaring the Bolt would have less than 200 miles of EV range.

  28. Robb Stark says:

    WTF with the semi-retraction correction?

    Tesla still on schedule to bring Model 3 deliveries to the public in 2017 but will not ramp up to large scale production til 2018.

    I don’t know whether to laugh or be annoyed by the same confederacy of idiots celebrating/ I told you so posturing at first non-confirmed story of Tesla Model 3 slippage.

  29. Curt Renz says:

    @ Author Eric Loveday

    In your update you are asserting “we can assume”. Assume? If you are a journalist worth your salt you will contact Tesla’s Mr. Reyes to get answers directly from him rather than telling us about your assumptions. Then report back to us.

  30. MarkSTJ says:

    If Nissan wants to be the clear leader they need to get a redesigned 200+ mile Leaf out in early 2017. My leaf is a great car but needs more range. The DCQC is great for the occasional 500+ mile trip. I can then get my Gen III in 2020.

  31. BREAKING UPDATE:
    RE: Model Ξ development timeline …

    1) Tesla states: “we plan to show Model 3 in 2016 & begin production in 2017.“

    2) Tesla: “JB’s slide is a high-level look into when Model 3 will be in full production.”

    Tesla says the slide meant Model 3 “full production” won’t happen until 2018. But the slide said “planned” for 2018. Contradiction?
    Via Cory Johnson, @CoryTV of Bloomberg news.

  32. TomArt says:

    No surprise – some of us have been predicting Q2 to Q3 2018 for first deliveries for at least a year or so now…so far, I see no reason to revise my prediction of Q3 2018. People who have followed Tesla for about as long, or longer, than I have (2008) can see the pattern. I’ll gladly eat my words if they actually start delivering anytime in 2017.

  33. I predict late 2018 as the launch of Midel 3.

    Sure, they “plan” do do a lot of things.

  34. Jeff Songster says:

    Looking forward to Model III whenever it appears… likely 2018…early…

    Another thought… just imagine what the Model S and X might include by 2018… full autodrive and 350 mile epa range… 110kWh battery packs… gonna be fun.

  35. Jeff B says:

    I just bought a 2004 Town Car with 70k on it for $5,600. My 2001 has 268K on it. Model 3 sounds great but a used 2012 P85D may be down below 35K in two or three more years so there will be several alternatives when the Model 3 arrives.

    1. EVer says:

      A P85D below 35k in 2 years?

      LOL what

    2. Steve says:

      Ha ha there is no such thing as a 2012 P85D. It came out at the end of 2014.

      There may be lots of regular Model S cars around that price though, by then. Especially 60KWh and the lower 40KWh model.

  36. Boris says:

    Ok, so by the time this car starts selling in Europe, it will be 2020 🙁

    1. Priusmaniac says:

      Perhaps not 2020 but likely 2019 and not at 35000$ but at 40000-45000€, so it will be a though balance to choose between a Model 3 at 40000-45000€ and a second hand Model S at 45000-50000€. Since we know what we have with the Model S, it will likely depend on what the Model 3 is like when it is presented next year.

  37. HVACman says:

    Different perspective on this slide’s big message – forget about the “nit-picky” issue of Tesla backsliding on their delivery date. Look at what the main point this slide illustrates – just how fast long-range EVs are “closing the gap” on ICE vehicles. Maybe not Tesla, but SOMEONE will be selling a $35K 200 mile EV in the 2017-2018 time scale. Probably GM. Maybe Nissan. Possibly Tesla. But regardless, EV’s are developing a lot faster than the EPA ever imagined.

    JB is probably pulling his hair out right now that everyone has taken his presentation slide and focused on the minutiae of the changed planned delivery date instead of the fact the red dot shows a 35K/200 mile range EV will be reality 15 years ahead of EPA estimates.

  38. Curt Renz says:

    @Editor-In-Chief Jay Cole

    When I was a financial newsman, I would certainly have checked with the company involved before excitedly “breaking” news from a hasty conclusion deduced from one figure in a week-old slide presentation. The company’s reply is of immense importance and needed to be reported, even if it were “no comment”. In this case if I were the author, and certainly if I were the editor, after a proper investigation I would have concluded this is a non-story and not published it.

  39. Jay Cole says:

    To melj’s questions as to why posts were removed:

    Well you did personally attack in one of your posts, so it was removed..as well as the subsequent posts in the same vane when you tried to circumvent (via location auto-moderation – we don’t actually go around pulling posts individually).

    Only two rules, which you knew ahead of time. Agree/disagree – all fine. No cursing, no personal attacks.

    1. melj says:

      ***mod edit (Jay Cole)***
      Just pulled this comment (full text below) out of auto-moderation just so you can have the last word. (no one is actively pulling and/or reading your posts) You are of course free to have your opinions and express them freely, we encourage that – regardless if we agree with them. We are always looking to improve and do better to serve the community, and we note all criticism.

      In our opinion, some of your comments were way over the top, and were definitely attack-based. Again, we let everyone have their say as best as we can, so despite previous actions, we still want to let your comment be noted publically.
      ***mod edit***

      Jay cole writes: no cursing, no personal attacks.

      Well jay, i don’t remember doing either. let me try again:

      1. insideevs knew or should have known that the slide did not indicate a DELAY in production. there are simply TOO many other explanations.

      2. insideevs could have and should have contacted tesla for clarity, but CHOSE NOT TOO

      3. i am tired, as well as others, of these type of “news” stories

      4. you censored my post because you didn’t like what i said. i never mentioned a name, never called a name and only criticized insideevs for this “news” story.

      5. there are lots of ways to get around your censorship, btw. censoring people for their opinions is a good way to get them to want to talk even louder….

      1. ClarksonCote says:

        The Tesla defenders are in full force here!

        They have a very consistent record of missing their deadlines, and their own slides say 2018, yet you criticize Inside EVs?

        If this were about another vehicle such as the Volt, would you be as critical or bashing GM as loudly as possible?

        1. Jim_NJ says:

          +1

          Tesla has missed Model X production dates by 2 years now. Interestingly, Chevy nailed the Volt production date in 2007 when they stated late 2010. OF course GM has a lot more experience in vehicle project timelines. Hopefully Tesla is learning, but I don’t expect to see Model 3 deliveries until 2018.

          1. EVer says:

            but whats the better car, the Volt or the Model S?

            Volt is GM’s what, 500th car? Model S is Tesla’s 2nd car…. :coffee:

      2. EVer says:

        Shut ur oo e ooh ah ah tang tang walla walla bang bang up!

      3. Trace says:

        Do t worry. They deleted me too in that EVs are very Christian and religion is environmental or something thread last week. No profanity, no personal attacks. Just a response to those taking umbrage about Christianity being criticized. My heresy is apparently a “personal attack” now.

        ***mod edit***
        Nothing was intentionally deleted on that topic, perhaps it didn’t post correctly to the system? We do see a few comments in the story (link) from you on the topic in relation to religion…the system has posted a few comments out of sequence for some reason (look at the time-stamping on this thread as an example of not being sequential) and we try to re-order them as best we can. So maybe that is why you think they might have been deleted?

        That thread has an incredibly wide point of view on the topic, so those types of comments would be totally fair ball. Please feel free to post (or re-post as the case may be) whatever comment you like.
        ***mod edit***

    2. Curt Renz says:

      @Jay Cole

      The positioning of your post implies that you are addressing me. Of course you are not, since you quite properly have not deleted my posts. It appears that you are referring to comments from melj that you may have deleted. You may want to clarify that for readers.

      ***mod edit (Jay Cole)***
      Thanks curt, will do!
      ***mod edit***

  40. Anon says:

    That’s how it starts… Simple omission of the word “full”, and speculation turns into an online article– then stock prices drop.

    Great work guys.

    Responsible journalists check their sources first. Bloggers don’t.

  41. ffbj says:

    I would not be surprised a bit if it actually does not begin production until 2018. Like have said maybe a trickle and then gradually building production.

    Imo it’s not something to get all up your high horse and say see we told you it’s all just smoke and mirrors, or the more typical Tesla delay comments. Really to me it’s merely another tempest in a teapot, and one that is far out on the horizon.

  42. Steve says:

    Thanks for the extensive revisions to the article today. You remain my go-to site for electric car news 🙂

  43. Speculawyer says:

    Whatever. It is not like they know when they will ship it. They have a target date and I guess they are keeping that target date . . . but I bet it gets rescheduled for later when some problems happen.

  44. Someone out there says:

    I still don’t believe you will be able to drive one before 2019. There will be many more delays.

  45. Bill Howland says:

    “Which car is the better car? Volt or S?”.

    Interesting question.

    I have a serious question. How much do they charge for ‘annual maintenance’ on a Model S, and what precisely do they do to the car for said amount of money? For my Roadster it was about $750 (CDN) plus taxes, and they basically air-hosed the inverter, which took about 1/2 a day since the thing has to be removed from the car (to do the job properly, although I’m sure some people have tried to do it themselves inside the car).

  46. Phil Trubey says:

    InsideEVs has hit the big time. Investors business daily is crediting this article as moving the stock a few percent before the correction could be published. IBD said other press used this article as their source for a reported 2018 date. A Tesla spokesperson was quoted in the article saying “JB’s slide is a high-level look into when Model 3 will be in full production. Unfortunately, insideevs did not contact us for clarification.”.

    So looks like InsideEVs needs to start acting like a journalist and not just a blogger, and have Tesla’s PR person on speed dial…

  47. Jouni Valkonen says:

    It still does not make any economic sense for Tesla to delay Model 3. E.g. one year delay for Model 3 would mean about 20 billion dollars in forever lost revenue as factories are standing there idle. Clearly delay does not make sense.

  48. ACG says:

    Remember everyone, surprise can only come after the fact. We mus actually wait until the first cars roll off the line to shed any emotions of shock.