Tesla Model Y Expected To Capture Significant Chunk Of 7-Million Strong U.S. Crossover Market

1 month ago by Eric Loveday 49

Tesla Model Y Render (via rmcardesign.com)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had previously confirmed that a Model Y crossover would follow the launch of the Model 3. Musk never gave a concrete timeline for the Y other than to hint it is still couple years out, but it is expected at some point in the future.

Tesla Model Y Render via RM CarDesign

Autocar recently examined the impact the Y might have for Tesla and found that it will likely become the automaker’s #1 selling vehicle. As Autocar states:

“As well as the much-hyped compact Model 3, Tesla is also expected to launch a compact crossover based on the same platform. The rumoured Model Y will, like the Model 3, be far more affordable than Tesla’s current offerings.”

“The starting price of the Model 3 is likely to be around $37,000 (£30,000), with the Model Y expected to be slightly more expensive.”

…the compact Model Y could turn out to be Tesla’s best seller – some seven million crossovers of all types were sold in the US last year…”

That’s a huge segment to play in and if Tesla could enter the crossover market with say a $40,000, 250-mile CUV, then it’s likely Tesla would see sales volume even higher than the Model 3.

First things first though. Tesla expects to begin production of the Model 3 this July, with volume deliveries beginning later this year.

We don’t expect to see the Y come to market until at least 2019, but maybe later. If it launches likely depends on the success of the 3 and how well Tesla pulls off entering the more mass-market segments. Beyond the Y, expect a new Tesla Roadster and then perhaps even that long-rumored pickup truck.

Source: Autocar

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49 responses to "Tesla Model Y Expected To Capture Significant Chunk Of 7-Million Strong U.S. Crossover Market"

  1. Bonaire says:

    Isn’t Honda going to have a plug-in CR-V for MY 2018? Give then another year or two and they’ll have full electric, etc.

    1. Brandon says:

      Kia is going to, but I don’t know if when they say 2018 they mean toward the beginning (Spring) or the end (Fall) of 2018.

      http://insideevs.com/hyundai-all-electric-suv-to-arrive-in-2018-with-200-miles-of-range/

    2. William L says:

      Honda used to be a major player, somehow they lost their mojo in recent years, just look at the 2018 Honda Clarity.

      Not expecting anything amazing come out from Honda anymore.

  2. Murrysville EV says:

    “$40,000, 250-mile CUV”

    That’s not going to happen. A 250-mile CUV is probably 85 kWh, which is not cheap.

    Most CUV customers demand AWD, which is not cheap in Te$la dollars.

    More realistically, we’re talking about a Model Y that starts at $50k and runs up to $75k with all the bling. Such an animal will not capture a significant chunk of the crossover market, but it would slot in nicely under the Model X.

    1. Brandon says:

      Don’t forget that battery prices are projected to drop an average of 10% a year for the next few years. That plus mass production of these EVs makes it entirely possible. (The mass production of batteries makes it possible too)

      1. Bonaire says:

        Give up the story of battery prices dropping. The point is can a car company build a compelling and reliable chassis and sales/service infrastructure – that also has batteries – and make it for what the big players do with their ICE today. Batteries should add about $7500 to the price versus an ICE – and thus you can use the Tax credit to an advantage. Consumers still want to worry about charging issues of range anxiety (even with big batteries). They are really hard to convince. If they weren’t – they would be lining up for not only Tesla but all other vendors demanding plug-ins.

        If batteries are $100/kWh, then Tesla and others will be wanting to find ways to build a profit around them and not deliver inexpensive cars. The whole point of the car industry is to try to “keep alive” with 7-10% gross margins without imploding under their own weights.

        1. paul says:

          ICE have to add and engine, transmission, exhaust system, cooling system, alternators, fuel pumps, etc,etc. vs a battery and motor.

          1. ModernMarvelFan says:

            “ICE have to add and engine, transmission, exhaust system, cooling system, alternators, fuel pumps, etc,etc. vs a battery and motor.”

            Tesla battery and motor have cooling system.

            Alternators? (1) LOL. $100 or less in cost.
            Fuel pumps? (1) $50 or less in cost.

            Battery and motor? LOL.

            How come people keep missing the fact that Motor controller or motor drive at those 200kW+ range will easily cost in the $3K to $4K range which easily cost more than an engine or transmission including all the accessories..

            *sigh*

            1. SJC says:

              Engines and transmissions are made by the millions for decades, not so with motors.

        2. Brandon says:

          A lot of good points there, well said, but I do maintain that battery prices are the number one factor in the timing of the EV revolution.

    2. leafowner says:

      It will likely use the same chassis as the Model 3 — made in very high volumes. Musk already said it can house a 75 kWh battery with today’s technology. In a smaller, lighter crossover versus the X — 250 miles should easily be attainable. But I agree – price will likely be in the $45k+ range for a 75 pack and dual motors.

      Also man — do you live in Murrysville PA?

      1. Murrysville EV says:

        Murrysville PA –> guilty as charged!

      2. SJC says:

        Economies of scale only work under certain conditions where the capital cost can be paid back with volume. That curve is not steep with batteries.

    3. TomArt says:

      It’s a smaller vehicle than the X. It would appear that the Model 3 could very likely get close to 300mi EPA w/75kWh, so the Y (a little taller and heavier) should be able to exceed 250mi with the 75kWh max with current cell tech.

  3. Chris O says:

    Hmmm, not if it looks like the car in that picture it won’t….

    1. CLIVE says:

      Correct

    2. Lawrence says:

      Looks don’t play into SUV buyers decision making.

      They’ll buy them regardless of how disproportionate they look.

    3. DJ says:

      I’m confused, why not? It looks like a smaller Model X, actually I think it looks better than a Model X without the rat nose, yuge front windshield and falcon wing doors.

    4. ModernMarvelFan says:

      Agreed!

      If the Model Y looks like that, there is no freaking way it would sell that well.

      That would be one ugly CUV, sort like ACURA ZDX/BMW GT…etc

  4. Boris says:

    Elon, please NO falcon doors on Model Y.

    1. CLIVE says:

      According to what I read it will have them.

      He said either the 3 or Y will.

      You decide.

      1. Boris says:

        I know he did, still hope he changed his mind in the meantime…

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Do you have a citation for that? Last I saw, Elon was only saying the Model Y might have FD doors.

        Here’s hoping that if so, it’s only an option and that another option will be available, either normal doors or sliding minivan-style doors.

        1. paul says:

          Could be pterodactyl wings.

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            Tesla just labeled them “falcon wings” as a marketing ploy. Actually they’re pigeon wings. 😉

            https://www.carthrottle.com/post/wb8mp56/

            1. koz says:

              Albatross wings

              1. TomArt says:

                Saw what you did there (if it was intended). Funny! 😀

        2. TomArt says:

          If the Y has FDs, then it will not be an option. That’s a massive redesign of the vehicle frame – two sets of crash tests, etc.

          That’s most likely why it’s not an option for the X. The frame is dramatically different. There is no sunroof or metal option – the X roof is exactly one configuration, and it’s all because of the needs of the FDs.

      3. Toni says:

        Falcon wing doors are pointless if you don’t have a third row of seats.

        And they are the one thing that does not fit at all in Tesla’s minimalist philosophy.

        I too hope that they don’t put them on any of their future models…

    2. Murrysville EV says:

      If the Y has falcon wing doors, Tesla will destroy their chances of penetrating the CUV market.

      I know I wouldn’t buy one simply because the doors won’t work right in my low-ceiling garage, and I’m not interested in paying for that complexity.

      1. Dave86 says:

        I, too, would be disappointed with falcon doors.

        I don’t mind waiting a few years for Model Y. Tesla seems to be rushing the Model 3 to market, so a few extra years to get the bugs out will be good for Model Y.

        GM is getting 238 miles out of a 60KWhr battery and we’ll probably see similar performance with Model Y. So the 75KWhr battery might get us close to 300 miles.

        Pricewise, there will be some competition. Ford says they’ll have a 300 mile SUV out in 2020. Wouldn’t surprise me if GM has something similar based on the Bolt.

  5. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    No thanks.

    I’ll stick with the “Model à trois”.

  6. Taser54 says:

    Seems far too premature to be writing about this proposed model.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Especially by a writer who thinks the base price of the Model 3 will be $37k, when it’s actually $35k. If we must have speculation, then it should at least be informed.

      1. MTN Ranger says:

        It’s $36,200 ($35,000 + $1,200 delivery) until proven otherwise.

    2. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

      Apparently not, since they got you to look at the article. The advertisers won’t know any better whether you just juumped to the bottom and wrote your comment.

      1. TomArt says:

        *click* 😀

  7. Kdawg says:

    “Tesla is also expected to launch a compact crossover based on the same platform. The rumored Model Y will, like the Model 3, be far more affordable than Tesla’s current offerings.”
    ——–
    Gee.. if only there were an affordable compact crossover with 200+ miles of EV range available today. 😀

  8. Whoever builds the “light” SUV I’ve penned in my blog post first will likely get my money! And there’s plenty of other folks who would like to see something similar: http://kootenayevfamily.ca/dear-tesla-suggested-features-for-the-model-y/

  9. DJ says:

    I just don’t see them having the Model Y out in 2019. If they supposedly have 100,000s of Model 3’s currently reserved, as we keep hearing about, to burn through + the addition of new orders why bother releasing a new product and incurring the cost sooner than later?

    I suspect they’ll look at how well Hyundai’s SUV does and possibly the Niro at least in part before we hear a lot of info about the Y.

  10. unlucky says:

    What does significant mean?

    Honestly, as popular as CUVs are really in a two car house the CUV should be the one with an ICE (if only a range extender). Let the other car be the runabout.

    Murraysville’s concerns above are also valid. CUVs are less efficient (see RAV4 EV) and so will drive the price up a lot. The first Roadster was a small car because minimized costs, maximized efficiencies and offered an opportunity to hide the cost premium of an EV drivetrain within a market segment that expects higher prices. Even with greatly improved battery prices I’m not sure the competitive CUV market matches up to these requirements well enough just yet.

    1. 2EVsCO says:

      Astute observations good sir/madam.

      The Rav4 EV is at the lowest possible end of battery size, overall SUVness, and practical use. If it had fast charging from the factory this would not be as much of an issue.

      Clearly a Model Y will have fast charging from the factory so it would not require too large of a battery to be useful in most situations.

      I wonder sometimes how many comment-ers across all the EV news sites and forums live or travel in cold weather areas and take that into account when they talk about battery capacity needs. The Rav4 EV is an E-pig in winter unless you want to freeeeeeeeeze. Even then you still have to account for the TMS keeping that battery happy while driving in the Rav4 (only active TMS when ON/READY). With always active TMS, the battery will definitely need a sizable buffer. Also degradation.

  11. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    I still want a EV truck, just sayin…..

  12. terminaltrip421 says:

    I think the same peopel who are hesitant to buy into electric vehicles are going to be hesitant to buy into musk’s vision of automation. his recent comment on not needing an instrument cluster because of autonomous driving was the single biggest turn off I think a company like Tesla is capable of.

    1. Andrew says:

      Completely agree. Elon has a lot of great ideas, but he also has a few ideas that aren’t so great. The problem is that he doesn’t know the difference. Just because he sees something as unnecessary doesn’t mean it’s not wanted by a large portion of consumers.

  13. koz says:

    Disagree about the factors affecting timeline. Tesla has enough staff to start development of the Y now and if it is to be on the Model 3 platform then they could certainly get it to market in 2019 if the wanted but they could build many and the range would be up to Tesla’s standards for the high. New gen battery cells to go into Model 3 are maxed at 75Kwh. Not only that but Gigafactory production is not expected to be capable of supporting more than expected volumes for Model 3 and other uses until 2020. Expect Model Y to coincide with completion of Gigafactory and next gen cell unless Model 3 sales aren’t up to par and they need to pull a lever.

  14. LOL says:

    Anticipating 450 miles Model Y would be quite sensible and knowing that, Tesla pushed back its rollout to 2019-2020. It also signifies putting a lot of pressure on other automakers trying to catch up on Tesla and develop better batteries. That is, until they figure out how to bypass batteries.

    1. BenG says:

      450 mile Model Y? Not anytime soon. Smaller platform than the S/X means smaller battery pack: limited to 75 kwh at the moment. Sure that will incrementally grow over the next years, but in 2019-2020 it will probably only be capable of 80-85 kwh.

      Aerodynamics of a CUV will not be great, so I’m thinking an 85 kwh Model Y would have range in the ballpark of the current Model S 100: comfortably over 300 mile range, but nowhere near 450.

  15. BenG says:

    I’m sure engineering and design teams are hard at work on the Y, but there’s absolutely no reason for Tesla to highlight that effort at this time. They need to focus on 1) Sell existing lineup of Model S and X, 2) Build Model 3 while building hype and anticipation for a strong sales start for that car.

    Pulling attention to Model Y at this time serves no purpose for Tesla.

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