Tesla Model 3 To Lead To Supercharger Apocalypse?

2 months ago by Steven Loveday 161

What is the ratio of Tesla vehicles per Supercharger in busy areas, and will Model 3 owners face impossible odds when attempting to join the already overcrowded locations?

Who better to dissect the data behind Tesla’s Supercharger situation than Ben Sullins of Teslanomics? Ben took the time to pore over numbers to assess the current situation, and provide some data-driven forecasts for future Model 3 owners.

The reality is, a long-range electric vehicle is of no use to those traveling long distances, if charging infrastructure is unavailable. However, for the majority of long-range EV drivers, charging overnight at home, or at Destination Chargers, should suffice. How many people commute over 100 miles one way?

Tesla

The Tesla Model 3 will obviously have a notable impact on Supercharger crowding, but with long-range EVs, is this really an epidemic?

Anyway, back to Ben’s discoveries …

As we have reported before, in many locations people have admitted that they don’t see a real problem with overcrowding at Superchargers stations. This is because, in certain areas there just aren’t a whole lot of Teslas on the road, and/or people are using the stations as intended. Although in other areas (California and other EV-friendly CARB states), the story is much different.

According to Sullins, the global ratio of Superchargers to Tesla vehicles is at a disappointing 39.3 cars per charger. Due to more Tesla vehicles being sold in the past two years, that number leaped by nearly 41 percent. In the U.S., we are worse off, at 48.6 Teslas per Supercharger. Even worse, that number sits at about 105 in California.

As Model 3 production begins, Tesla will essentially double its annual vehicle production. The automaker’s goal is to have the capacity to build 500,000 cars per year by the end of 2018.

To put it in perspective, as of March 2017, Tesla has delivered over 208,000 vehicles worldwide, ~120,000 of which are in the U.S. Model 3 reservations sit around 400,000. It’s not hard math. The number of Tesla vehicles to Superchargers may improve temporarily with the slow start of Model 3 production, and the doubling of chargers by the end of the year. However, beyond that, when Model 3 production ramps up – unless Tesla expands the network much more aggressively – the busy stations will become exponentially more busy.

With all of this being said, if Tesla drivers use the Supercharger network as originally intended (only for long trips when there’s no other option), and take advantage of the growing Destination Charging network (set to quadruple by the end of the year), and charge at home (or work if it’s available), they shouldn’t have much issue. The range of Tesla’s vehicles is such that following the above method should suffice, unless of course you are in the tiny minority of those that are commuting some 200+ miles every single day.

Some argue that the Supercharger network is an incredible perk to being a Tesla owner, but not necessarily necessary. How many other long-range EVs are in the current market, and how many of them offer their own fast charging network? Long-range electric vehicles are intended to lessen the need for charging outside the convenience of your home, while you are peacefully sleeping, and dreaming about emission-free transportation.

Video Description via Teslanomics by Ben Sullins on YouTube:

Many current Tesla Model S and Model X owners are wondering what is going to happen when we have thousands of new Model 3 owners on the road looking to charge? In some area’s it’s going to be worse than others. Troy, a Tesla Motors Club user, has compiled some great stats on this looking at the ratio of the Tesla fleet versus the Supercharger Stalls. In this video, I take a look at this data and the dashboard I built showing how to interact with it.

Source: Teslanomics by Ben Sullins via Teslarati

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161 responses to "Tesla Model 3 To Lead To Supercharger Apocalypse?"

  1. SparkEV says:

    If Tesla offers anything other than pay-per-use charging that’s billed by time, there will be Apocalypse. Supercharging should be bit less convenient and cost a bit more than other options. Billing by time will ensure higher per-kWh cost when taper is taken into account, and only those who really need it will pay.

    1. Mil says:

      I completely agree although I think there should be a dual tier system for charging. Set a certain threshold where billing is by kWh when the supercharger speed is mostly being used. Soon as it goes above the threshold (i.e. charge rate starts tapering) it should switch to a time based charging system. The reason for this is blanket charging by time is unfair when cars can take charge at different rates. Right now all Teslas are about the same but Elon mentioned about 350kW chargers in the near future which old cars would not be able to utilise.

      1. SparkEV says:

        As long as billing by kWh is more expensive than home charging and before taper kicks in, that’s probably ok. But some Tesla taper begins even at 30%. Rather than complications of which car gets how many kWh vs by time, simplest is to just keep it per-time billing for all.

        Besides, if they wanted to pay less for supercharging, they could buy new Tesla with less taper. In effect, it’s a small incentive for people to upgrade, and people who paid less to Tesla to pay slightly more for supercharging.

      2. Jim Whitehead says:

        How can Tesla Superchargers absorb a 10x increase in car charging by themselves? They can’t.

        One solution: Tesla could mass-produce and SELL Superchargers as turnkeys to existing gas stations and other businesses, who will be free to charge whatever the market will bear. Note that “FREE” Supercharging is only promised for Tesla’s own branded pumps.

        Tesla isn’t yet talking yet about this looming Supercharger shortage. Possibly they don’t want to hurt resale values, if people realize that “free Supercharging for life” is a vanishing benefit. One day free Superchargers may dry up and become as rare and as unicorns. 😉

        1. LS says:

          Actually, Tesla did announce their plan to double the number of Superchargers this year. It was in their Q4/2016 earning report.

          1. Zach says:

            And free supercharging for new cars has already ended.

            1. And in their mew market of Jorden, one business there with multiple Gas Stations, already Did Buy their own Superchargers! Tesla only has 1 of their own installed their yet.

              Imagine if Big Box Home & Hardware Stores, Mall Anchor Stores, Gas Station Chains, and The like, all added just 2-4 Superchargers at each location!

              Then imagine them both Grid Connected and Buffered by an added 200-400 kWh Tesla Powerpack, plus 100 kW Solar!

              That would be a whole new space for considering EV’s & Charging, Power Production, and Energy Storage/Grid Stabilization!

              The Question is: Could that be a Goal that Tesla could accomplish and deliver on, before they reach a Million Cars and Trucks, produced, or delivered? Would they be able to get those Big Box Stores to sign up for such participation?

              Also, would there be more Big Box Stores that would request Tesla to put an ‘In Store’ Tesla Store inside them for Sales?

              Would Cities start Vying for Tesla Stores and Service Centres before Tesla reaches 500,000 cars produced? 1,000,000 vehicles produced? If we start seeing promos from Cities, for a Tesla Store, & for Service Centres, & even for Superchargers, we will be seeing a whole new paradigm!

              A signal, if you will, that Tesla has indeed ‘Accelerated the move to sustainable Transportation’, and when we see Cities creating Promo Video’s, like current Country promos for the Gigafactory, for Tesla to set them up with X MWh’s or GWh’s of Powerpacks, MW or GW of Solar, etc., we will see the beginning of a massive shift in conscious thought, regarding the energy we use!

    2. Nick says:

      Charging per hour won’t effect people who are not price sensitive, and will reduce the vehicles value to those who are.

      1. philip d says:

        I think that will be true for most of the lower volume Model S and X owners but for the rest of us price conscious M3 owners which will make up the volume of sales (hopefully) they will choose to just charge at home if it isn’t completely free at the Supercharger.

      2. SparkEV says:

        Tesla 3 is $35K car, about that of Nissan Leaf. Many Leaf drivers waste 30 minutes sitting in their cars for free charging instead of charging at home. Practically all of Tesla 3 crowd will be price sensitive.

        1. MTN Ranger says:

          I doubt I’ll use local public charging at all when I get my Model 3. When I had my Volt, I used public charging almost daily so I would stay electric. The Tesla supercharging in my state are mostly all in the middle of nowhere.

        2. Klaus says:

          Any data to back up those assertions? I know many model 3 res holders who are not price sensitive and leaf owners who rarely free fast charge, even with chargers nearby.

          You may be right, but do you know of any data that supports your blanket assertions? Somehow, I doubt it.

          1. EndResult says:

            Why would you doubt this? There have been many articles on the fact that current Tesla owners line up to sit in their cars and free charge – this is one reason why it is no longer 100% free.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              “There have been many articles on the fact that current Tesla owners line up to sit in their cars and free charge…”

              1. What you’re saying isn’t a fact, it’s your (mis)interpretation of reports.

              2. One thing we know is that Elon Musk thinks “freeloading” by Tesla owners at Superchargers is a serious problem.

              3. Another thing we know, from many posts to the Tesla Motors Club forum, is that a lot of Tesla owners received “Stop freeloading” letters from Tesla, even when they had never used a Supercharger within 100 miles of their home, or perhaps had used it only once within the past several months. In fact, I get the impression that of those who received that stern warning letter from Tesla, most didn’t deserve it.

              Unfortunately there always seems to be at least one jerk in a crowd quite willing to ruin a good thing for everyone, but the idea that most Tesla drivers are cheapskates who place a higher value on electricity worth maybe $2-3 more than they value 30-45 minutes of their time… well, I think it’s safe to say such people are rare.

          2. SparkEV says:

            Before I got jaded, I used to spark up a friendly conversation at DCFC. Since I was waiting more than half the time I was trying to use DCFC, I talked to quite a few people. Over 75% (3 out of 4) were locals using DCFC instead of charging at home. Some locals were waiting for other locals already at DCFC with almost 30 minutes left to go, which made me 3rd in line with almost an hour wait!

            Now that I don’t talk with everyone at DCFC, I observe how long they charge. Almost everyone with Leaf/i3 charge for free-allotment of 30 minutes. Some even plug in with more than 80% already and wait 30 minutes. With taper, they’d be paying more than 5 MPG gas car if they didn’t get free charging.

            Of course, this is only my experience. If you doubt this, try the experiment yourself.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Given the limited range of the Leaf, I would not at all doubt that most of those charging at public chargers could properly be described as “locals”. Even if the Leaf has enough range for a daily commute, any side trip or a need to go back out after returning home, could easily result in a need to stop by a DC fast charger en route. In fact, we’ve seen reports right here at InsideEVs that some people’s commute is beyond the normal range of the Leaf, so they have to stop at a public charger on the way home every work day.

              How odd, Sparky, that you’d describe such Leaf drivers as if there was something wrong with such behavior. I guess if you go around with a strongly misanthropic view of humanity as a whole, and assume the worst about everyone, then you can probably convince yourself that you’ve found evidence for whatever activity you can think of. (I particularly remember your claim that every seat on every public bus smells of being urinated on. How odd that none of the buses I’ve ridden have ever had any such problem. 🙄 )

              Fortunately, Tesla cars have a significantly longer range than the Leaf, so should not often need to be charged locally.

              1. SparkEV says:

                As I said, I TALKED TO PEOPLE. They told me they’re locals. With Leaf’s taper, some were charging at 2 kW out of 50 kW charger with more than 20 minutes left to go.

                I don’t expect you to understand since you don’t even drive an EV. When you’re waiting up to 30 minutes for slow charging Leafs due to their high state of charge when you only need 5 minutes to get over the hill to go home, you’d know what I mean.

                At no time did I blame Leaf drivers for getting free charge. Hell, I’d do it, too, if it’s free. The entire blame goes to providers of free (Nissan, BMW). This is why I blame socialist the government that give free stuff and resultant societal decay, not the people living under socialism that receive free stuff.

            2. Niels says:

              It may be that the last 20% is needed by the Leaf owners to be able to reach their destination and/or get back

              1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

                Common sense would suggest that’s usually the case. Most people aren’t willing to spend multiple times a week waiting at an EV fast charger just to save a few dollars on their electric bill. Most people value their time more than that. That certainly includes most Leaf drivers.

                Sure, there are exceptions, but only exceptions — not the rule.

    3. philip d says:

      I believe that’s the system they are going with.

      There will be a flat amount, 400 kWh, per year for every Tesla owner and then beyond that it will be fee based.

      400 kWh will give you at least 1200 miles a year for free. I almost think it should be less since the average American takes no more than 1 road trip a year that is 400 miles or less.

      Then add the occasional short hop to the next city and the average driver will need quite a bit less than 1200 miles.

      As a future Tesla driver it sounds stupid to advocate for less free Supercharging but I think there should be just a small free per annum amount and the rest charged to keep the chargers open for those that do take that occasional trip.

      1. Brandon says:

        If the Model 3 doesn’t come with 400 kWhs free (or some lesser amount) and all Supercharger usage is billed by the kWh at around $0.14 (that’s the average btw) or by the minute in those states where it has to be so, then it seems to me that there won’t be too much of an issue of over crowding at Superchargers.

        I’ve heard cases already that when a network started charging fees for charging, the usage dropped by about half at first. So that tells me that there are sometimes around half of the people using fast chargers that don’t really need it. Interesting.

        And, of note:
        $0.14 per kWh is about a buck and a half a gallon!! CHEAP!!

        1. SparkEV says:

          Electricity base rate in San Diego is $0.20/kWh, so making it cheaper than home charging will invite cheapskates to use superchargers instead of home charging. Supercharger rate has to be at least higher than home base rate. $0.25/kWh is more reasonable, but definitely not lower than $0.20/kWh.

          1. Tesla installed multiple City Supercharger Locations in China and Hong Kong, because locals there mostly live in Apartments. For American Citizens of a similar Condition, could they come up with a new DC Fast Charger, that had a new style and maybe a new color scheme, for Condo, Apartment, and Convenience Charging, that was maybe Lower Power, like maybe 90 kW like the 1st Superchargers, with maybe not so many Heads per Site, but More Sites, only IN Cities, that were set up for Billing by Credit Card, and charge a rate approximately equal to local electricity costs, plus 20%, for the next stage of ‘Destination Charging’, mabe with a new title: ‘City Charging’, for example??

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        “As a future Tesla driver it sounds stupid to advocate for less free Supercharging…”

        It only seems stupid to those who haven’t thought through the implications of offering access to a finite resource (in this case, the Supercharger network) on an “unlimited free” basis and/or those who don’t understand the Tragedy of the Commons.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

  2. Ivan says:

    What about the tweet from Elon when he was asked if 350kW was possible? Could it be that Tesla just increases the power and number of stalls in the superchargers already built? That would lessen the pressure on SuC.

    They have the stats of all the superchargers and they know which ones are crowded so I assume they will take care of this issue.

    As far as fair use, that’s out of Tesla’s hands.

    1. Bacardi says:

      You would imagine that if it were cheap and easy it would already be done…Odds are major heavy duty equipment will be needed and my WAG is when it’s deploys it may only be a stall or two in brand new sites…Then they can charge a premium supercharge at faster speeds…

      We won’t know until we know but the odds of a simple software update tripling the KW speeds are very unrealistic…

    2. Chris O says:

      That tweet might indicate that Model 3 will come with vastly improved charging rates. Maybe like 80% in 20 minutes. Wouldn’t require 350KW output, if the base battery is 50KW even the current 145KW chargers should be enough to cough up the needed 30-35KWh in 20 minutes.

      That should go a long way in avoiding the Supercharger apocalypse.

      1. zzzzzzzzzz says:

        Just using 120 kW for 0-100% or even for 0-80% instead of averaging in the ballpark of 50 kW would be almost impossible achievement with today’s technology, while keeping cost, density and longevity uncompromised.

        1. Chris O says:

          As far as you know/in your opinion.

          But who cares….

        2. SparkEV says:

          “averaging in the ballpark of 50 kW would be almost impossible achievement”

          Average to what? To 80%, even SparkEV average around 45 kW (ballpark of 50 kW), and Tesla does lot better. Even the most pessimistic estimate is 60kW, more likely 75kW, and those are few years old data. Newer Tesla do even better.

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      What about the tweet from Elon when he was asked if 350kW was possible?

      His response was pretty cryptic, as I recall. As others have pointed out, he may have merely been referring to how much power is provided to an entire Tesla station, not just one individual Supercharger.

      Also, even if Tesla demonstrates, for example, a 500 kW or 1000 kW super-duper charger as part of showing off its BEV semi tractor (probably just a concept vehicle), that doesn’t mean Tesla will upgrade its existing Superchargers to 500 kW.

      What is possible, and what Tesla actually plans on doing in the near future, may well be two very different things.

      1. Chris O says:

        LOL, so what’s your point, is Tesla planning to do the impossible or is it planning on not doing things despite the fact that they are possible?

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Think of it as an intelligence test. Apparently you failed.

  3. E-Ryc says:

    The article doesn’t mention the worst case – the days everyone travels (like Thanksgiving weekend) – there are people on the long-distance trips who don’t need SC over the rest of the year…

    1. KevinZ says:

      Good thought.

    2. Brian says:

      Yup. Thanksgiving is probably the worst-case scenario. One that gets completely missed if you only look at statistics.

      I do trust that Tesla has a plan to grow both the power and number of stalls at each location. IMO, they should not offer free supercharging to Model 3 owners. It should only be a pay-per-use system. This would allow competing networks to grow alongside Tesla, and grab some of those drivers as customers. That, in turn, would help all EV drivers since they would also have access to quick public charging. But now I’m dreaming. As much as Tesla says it wants competition, it is still a business and still has to look out for itself first.

      1. pjwood1 says:

        I think Tesla’s plan will be: React

        “Doubling” chargers as cars triple is something many areas can support, is my bet. The level of ire, from maybe the 1 in 10 superchargers where wait times get pretty crazy, will drive the news…and reaction.

        I think the charging displays in the cars could use an alert, that a line has formed behind you. I think the service center locations could take their own cars off (sounds stupid, but have found otherwise).

        The problem gets worse, if on a multiple charger trip a Tesla owner decides its better to sit for a full charge, than to string faster partial charges on his route. 125 miles comes in 25 minutes. 250 comes in 1.5 hours. If you have to ask yourself, “Is that next station going to be full”, than chances are greater you’ll squat out the full charge…see what I mean? This is how taper works, as KW charging rates normally fall in fast-charging.

    3. zzzzzzzzzz says:

      Just read California owner experience on TMC. Many are just giving up on long distance travel whatsoever as supercharger reliability and speed went downhill under high utilization.

      You need to be die-hard nutcase to plan travel with your family at holiday time and tell them all to waste an hour on some silly charger because you love your car more than them.

      1. And sitting in a Gas Car, stuck miles behind a 50 car pile up on the freeway is better?

        I was on a California bus trip, and saw 5-8 miles of cars stuck behind some big accident, and it wasn’t even Raining!

        And for this matter, if the only gas Tesla Model 3 owners burnt, was on the once a year Thanksgiving Trip to Grandma’s House, in a Rented Car or Van, so as to avoid any risk of Supercharger Line ups, for a year or two as Tesla catches up in expanding the Supercharger Network to handle High Traffic Holidays in High Use Area’s, that should be OK, too!

        1. ModernMarvelFan says:

          If that is the reasoning, then don’t bother with the Tesla’s superior SC network coverage and buy a cheaper Bolt instead…

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        zzzzzzzzzzz posted more FUD:

        “Many are just giving up on long distance travel whatsoever…”

        Gosh, if a die-hard serial Tesla basher like zzzzzzzzzz says so, then it must be true!

        Oh, wait…

    4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Yes, there is no way Tesla is going to build out the Supercharger network to the point that there isn’t significant congestion during the busiest traveling days of the year, over the Thanksgiving holiday. It simply doesn’t make sense for Tesla to spend all that money to support travel for just 2 or 3 days out of the year.

      And the problem with holiday congestion is one of several reasons why I say that competition will inevitably drive down EV charging time to no more than 10 minutes; possibly even down to 5 minutes. With a <10 minute charge time, the problem of Thanksgiving holiday congestion becomes much, much less. (Logically, this would not appear to be so; no matter how long or short the charge time, logically there won't be sufficient capacity for Thanksgiving weekend. However, I note that most gas stations are able to handle the excess traffic without noticeable congestion, so the closer Supercharging gets to that approx. 5 minutes that I think most highway travelers take when gassing up, the closer we'll get to alleviating the problem.)

      1. Also, as Teslas move mire towards Autonomous Driving, and Superchargers get installed in more locations, their might even be better prompts from the trip planning, as to where YOU should charge up, for how long, to avoid crowds at specific chargers!

        If their ‘Narrow AI’ can drive the car, it could also know how many cars are passing through a set of Superchargers per Hour, and do things like drive either Faster or Slower, with each car, to reduce or eliminate Choke Points, as part of one very large feedback loop data set!

  4. Ron M says:

    Do charging stations use wind and solar energy?

    1. William says:

      That is the Holy Grail, when you can pay for charging off of renewable juice only! There is tidal and geothermal along with pumped hydro if it is recharged with the above harvested renewables.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Some few Tesla stations do have a solar canopy over the stalls, but that’s pretty much just a fig leaf. I’ve seen claims that a solar canopy provides about 10% of the power for a station, but my “napkin math” suggests that’s an overstatement. I suspect more like 1-2%, altho it could be more if the station has a battery backup which is charged with the solar panels, and if the station is rarely busy — meaning it has plenty of time to recharge the pack between customers. If it’s a busy station, I don’t see how that relatively small canopy could possibly supply 10% of the power. The amount of energy in sunlight simply isn’t that much per square foot.

      Tesla’s (or Elon’s) original announcements about the Supercharger network said (or at least strongly implied) the plan was to make them entirely solar powered, but obviously Tesla isn’t moving in that direction, and isn’t likely to. That would give them bragging rights, but wouldn’t earn Tesla even one penny more income.

      1. Jason says:

        Actually, the amount of power in sunlight is pretty high, the efficiency to harness that power is pretty low. I think our solar cells are about 20% efficient, so if they make 200W per M2, then there is actually about 1kW of power in the sunlight.

        1. ModernMarvelFan says:

          1kW per square meter at peak output hours near the equator isn’t much.

          Solar panels are about 15 to 25% efficient at best before inverter losses.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          As MMF said, that 1 kW per square meter is only under optimal conditions, and only close to noon. In real world conditions, you’re rather unlikely to get that much, and you certainly won’t get it for many hours of the day. (One of my pet peeves is the way solar power advocates usually list the power provided as if the sun was exactly and precisely overhead, and remained stationary for 12 hours a day!)

          Keep in mind, also, that the average Tesla station has 8 stalls. Divide the size of that solar canopy by 8, and it wouldn’t go very far even if your solar panels were 100% efficient rather than ~21% efficient.

          In reality, my “napkin math” says you’d need a solar farm about the size of 1-2 football fields per stall to reliably provide all the power for a Supercharger station in the temperate zone latitudes. We’re not that close to the equator here in the USA.

          Hopefully it’s not necessary to point out that in general, real estate near a Supercharge station is going to be much too valuable for Tesla to be putting in large solar farms adjacent to the station. Realistically, if some person or company wanted to do that sort of thing, it would make far more sense to locate the solar farms in remote areas where the land is cheap, and offset the amount of electricity used rather than trying to generate it on site.

  5. Big Solar says:

    99% will charge at home

    1. William says:

      Some of us can only charge at level 1 at home. So maybe a little under your 99% estimate. By the way, charging at the 1kw/per hr. is pretty much useless for those commuting over 60 mi./ day.

      1. alohart says:

        That should be preferably written “1 kW”, but “1 kWh/h” is mathematically identical although unnecessarily complex. “1 kW/h” is definitely meaningless.

        It will take some time before we all become as familiar with the units used with electricity as we are with the units used with liquid fuels.

      2. M Hovis says:

        “Most” homes equipped with a 200 amp service have room for another double pole breaker in the main. Everybody had to add this circuit in the 1950’s when the middle class adopted potable hot water. They did it again when they added an electric dryer, and for many again when they added a heat pump. The circuit is the same and in many cases even closer if the main is located near the garage or parking area.

        1. Bill Howland says:

          You didn’t have Hot water until the 50’s down south? Damn. Everyone had hot water by me by 1910, and absolutely every one by 1920.

          IN the 1950’s 60 ampere services were being put in the new homes mostly – larger ones might have been 100. Nowadays around here, 150 is most common, 200 for a large home (or those without utility gas service), 300 for a very large home, and 400 for a mansion.

          Many EV owners upgrade their electric service to 200 amps when putting in Solar Panels – me electrical inspector was upset with me when I put the new solar panels on my original 1950’s 100 amp service – too bad for him – but most of my energy usage is methane.

          Gas dryers didn’t get popular until around 40 years ago when electronic ignitions became popular. The piloted versions prior to this were more costly to run, but now gas dryers are hands down cheaper. The big box stores here have ZERO electric dryers in stock – that’s how popular the gas models are now.

          This supercharger issue is probably only going to be a temporary problem in California only. As he says – most of the SC’s are begging for cars, and whatever you think of Musks changing the policy, you have to admit that it will greatly decrease SC usage by the taxi’s and other cheapskates.

          1. M Hovis says:

            Hey Bill,
            The point being, we are upgrading our home service all the time and it is pretty straight forward.
            I agree with the short term California problem as stated below with a little policy adjustment it is going to be fine.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          So far as I know, the only era when a significant percentage of homes needed a serious upgrade to their electrical system was during the ’50s and ’60s, when the middle class installed central air conditioners in their homes. At least, that’s true in the USA, in those States where you really do need central air conditioning. Some areas don’t.

          I’ve seen it claimed that switching our nationwide fleet of cars to EVs charged mostly at home will require about the same increase in power demand on the grid as central A/C. In other words, we’ve been here before, and the EV-haters’ prediction of apocalypse and collapse of the grid is a FUDster fantasy.

          1. Up in this particular thread portion, William stated “By the way, charging at the 1kw/per hr. is pretty much useless for those commuting over 60 mi./ day.”, so if we move that to 1.5 kW, that should equal 90 miles per day, and so 3 kW would then be 180 miles per day!

            3 kW is basically the Charging rate on AC, Max, for 1st Gen Volt, 2011 LEAF, iMiEV, etc., and can be delivered by a a 240 Volt Circuit at just 20 Amps for the Breaker.

            An added 20 Amp Breaker Pair for a 240V feed to an EVSE, should be quite sufficient for most for Overnight Charging, AND for Workplace Charging, as that should be able to at least recharge about 100 Miles Range over a 8 Hour period! (At 3.3 kW, this = 26.4 kWh, & @ 4 miles/kWh, this = 105 miles)

            For those who work 10 hours a day, even 120 miles could be added.

            If charging at Home & Work, most could do just fine on a 120V x 15A circuit, with 8 hours or more at home plus 8 hours at work! (However, sometimes charging at 120V is less efficient than from 240V!)

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Thanks for your comments, Robert, but please! As is pointed out above, the phrase “1 kw/per hr.” is meaningless. The charge rate (power) is 1 kw (kilowatt). How many hours you charge at that rate will give you a figure (energy) in kWh (kilowatt-hours).

            2. Bill Howland says:

              Yup Robert. – Old Volts will charge around 3 kw at work, 3.3 at home, New Volts 3.3 at work, 3.6 at home.

              Bolt evs will charge at 7.2 kw at home (maybe) and 6 kw at work – unless they have smaller wallboxes.

              They say the biggest impact to the utility consumption occurred when they came out with those INEFFICIENT frost-free refrigerators, requiring 4 additional central stations worth of juice in the states.

              Central Stations are closing right and left around me – and it doesn’t really matter since all the Industry has been transplanted to China. My one ‘little’ corner of the Steel plant where I worked used more juice than my entire hometown, but now the WHOLE joint is gone. So EV’s aren’t any problem here.

              Nationwide, it seems there is more electricity saved by efficient air conditioners, Cfl’s and Led’s than could ever be used by EV’s, even if everyone had one.

              But I doubt absolutely EVERYONE will have an EV anytime soon – especially since we’re currently hovering around the low single digits percentage wise.

      3. jheartney says:

        If you can afford a Tesla (even a Model 3), you can probably afford a Level 2 charger. If you’re smart about it, you can keep the cost pretty low; ours came in under $500 including new outlet and charge cord.

        1. SparkEV says:

          My L2 EVSE was free with SparkEV, but install at my usual parking spot would’ve been close to $10,000. There are some situations where installing L2 may be cost prohibitive.

    2. M Hovis says:

      Yes, this is the paradigm shift that has to happen even for Tesla EVs. 90%+ will happen at home or at destination chargers. EV owners should not fight paying a premium for quick charger access a few times a year and that means Tesla owners as well.

      I very much like the new charging model for Tesla. As Ben mentioned, the owner will have 400kWh free annually and then pay for miles “inside” a given radius of their home. I think 100 mile radius is resonable. It doesn’t mean you are stranded and can not use it inside that radius, you simply will have to pay a premium. If you are charging 90%+ at home or work/destination charger, this is going to be peanuts.

      For those who don’t currently have the luxury of charging at home, Tesla autopilot will be the first to solve this. Now I am aggressive in my thinking, but IMO, this option will be there sooner than we think, especially in California where you have pro-EV adoption as well as the worse supercharger problem.

      1. Brandon says:

        M Hovis, this charging model you mention that Tesla has… is that official from them? Or just someone’s idea to do?

          1. Brandon says:

            Yes, but the specific part I meant was the radius X many miles near home that would incur fees when Supercharging. That’s not official as far as I know.

      2. ModernMarvelFan says:

        But 90% of that remaining 10% shows up on SC during the congested holiday weekend which would make the car only 90% usable.

        If that is the case, then why does people BASH the Bolt so much since it matches or beats Tesla in those 90%+ charging at home cases?

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Is it really necessary, MMF, to point out to you that many people do occasionally take road trips on days other than Thanksgiving weekend?

          People certainly should take the worst-case scenario into consideration when making a car buying decision. But to base a buying decision on what you might use the car for during only 1/2 week of the year, and ignore the other 51-1/2 weeks, seems rather foolish.

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Big Solar said:

      “99% will charge at home”

      At home or at word, sure, but many (most?) of that 99% will occasionally use Superchargers too.

      The important question is, of all the miles driven by Teslae, how many miles are powered by home charging, and how many by using Superchargers and other public chargers?

      I think the actual figure for Tesla car owners is about 92-93% from home charging. As I recall, that figure was 95% when first reported, so it looks like more Tesla drivers are using the Supercharger network as the number of locations is increased. That should not be surprising.

  6. Adolfo rios says:

    There is inefficiency built in to pay per use models.Their previous “unlimited charging” model where the cost was essentially built into the price actually allows customers to zoom through charging faster. Stopping to pay is archaic and wastes time. This isn’t a gas station, most people wake up with a full tank of energy and don’t really need super chargers. I have driven 80 mile range ev cars for 5 years and almost never charge away from home. Teslas with a starting range of 215+ miles will end up not needing to charge frequently.

    Elon is better off spending energy educating customers on not abusing the ecosystem. Example, it takes you a half hour of your day to exploit the supercharger system and save 5 bucks of electricity. If you make 20 bucks an hour you probably are better off letting your car charge overnight than going out of your way for a super charger.

    1. alohart says:

      Tesla’s pay model doesn’t require the user to do anything different from today; i.e., no time is wasted paying, so there’s no additional inefficiency. Tesla knows who owns each car that uses a Supercharger and could either bill the owner regularly or collect when the owner has the car serviced. Tesla could disable any car whose owner hasn’t paid for Supercharger use (not that Tesla would do that).

    2. EndResult says:

      If you make $20/hr. I do not think you are buying a Tesla.

  7. Adolfo rios says:

    I don’t see a huge overcrowding problem in Ca with the exception of holiday travel on places like the i5 corridor by the grapevine where all tesla owners need to charge to get from SF to LA.

    1. SparkEV says:

      I have to wonder how many of those guys actually needed to supercharge, and how many of them just wanted a free charge. If my experience with Leaf/i3 drivers is any indication, about 80% probably skipped charging at home, and just wanted “free charging” on their trip. If they charged at home in LA area, next supercharger is well within the range of Tesla.

      Free charging SUCKS!

      1. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sven says:

        400 kWh (~1,000 miles) of Supercharger credits are awarded annually by Tesla, but unused credits do NOT get rolled over to the next year. I could see people road tripping or local Supercharging just to use up their expiring Supercharger Credits.

        1. SparkEV says:

          Yup. That’s what I’m afraid of. People will use up the free charging in their once-a-year road trip, likely during holiday weekends, causing more clogging. There should be no free charging of any kind. Tesla sucks for offering ANY free charging.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        SparkEV said:

        “If my experience with Leaf/i3 drivers is any indication, about 80% probably skipped charging at home, and just wanted ‘free charging’ on their trip.”

        80%? I do not think that there are that many misers in existence. Few people would consider it worth their while to wait around for half an hour or more just to save a couple of dollars on their electric bill. Probably much, much closer to 1-2% than 80%.

        Your claim of “80%”, Sparky, seems to be part of your attitude towards people in general as teeming vermin which the world would be better off without.

        1. SparkEV says:

          80% of people waiting on supercharger doesn’t mean 80% of Tesla owners. Based on my experience at DCFC, over 75% of people using DCFC are locals, and I suspect this is true with Tesla as well.

          If you think people won’t take advantage of free to the point of destruction, you are mistaken. Big reason why “socialist paradises” fail is because of free stuff. Same is true why we have air pollution (free air).

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            SparkEV said:

            “80% of people waiting on supercharger doesn’t mean 80% of Tesla owners.”

            You’re suggesting that as many as 4 out of 5 people waiting in line at a Supercharger station are such cheapskates, despite being able to afford driving an expensive car, that they’d rather spend time not only waiting for their own car to charge, but also waiting for someone else’s before they could even start charging?

            I rather think most Tesla drivers — in fact, the overwhelming majority of Tesla drivers — value their time much more than a mere, let’s say, $2-4 per hour!

            Sure, rampant socialism and “the dole” leads to widespread abuse of people “feeding at the trough” of government charity. But very few people “on the dole” are driving Teslae!

            And more to the point, Sparky, I’m really glad I don’t live in the world you live in. Mine is occupied mostly by much, much nicer people, with exceptions which are thankfully rare.

            1. SparkEV says:

              As I wrote, 80% is based that on my own experience at DCFC. If you think otherwise, conduct your own experiment.

              If you think Tesla drivers can’t be cheapskates who’d waste time at supercharger, you are wrong. Even just few percent of all Tesla owner cheapskates would cause awful experience at supercharger.

              When it comes to free, all logic goes out the window. If logic prevailed, we wouldn’t have turned the air into brown blob that destroy our lungs. This ain’t the land of unicorns farting rainbows, as the election of Dump shows. At least CA didn’t go for that a-hole by yuuge margin, so I say we are more rational than the rest of US.

              1. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sven says:

                PuPu’s home state of Kansas, on the other hand, did go for Trump. In fact, it wasn’t even close; Trump won Kansas by a YUUUUUUUUGE majority. It was a landslide victory. Trump received 57.2% of the popular vote while Clinton received a paltry 36.2%, and Trump won the vote in virtually every single county in Kansas winning 102 of 105 Kansas counties.
                http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/kansas/

                Pu-Pu said:
                “And more to the point, Sparky, I’m really glad I don’t live in the world you live in. Mine is occupied mostly by much, much nicer people, with exceptions which are thankfully rare.”

                These “much, much nicer people” that Pu-Pu refers to are Trump supporters, since they are a big majority of Kansas. LOL! Perhaps Pu-Pu is a closet Trumpster himself! Pu-Pu should just come out, and change his avatar to a two-headed llama with both heads wearing bright red “Make America Great Again” baseball hats. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! 😀

                1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

                  So… your argument is that since the State I live in was among the majority of the States which unfortunately voted their electors for El Trumpo in the election, then Sparky must be right when saying that 80% of those waiting in line at EV chargers are miserly cheapskates who don’t actually need to use a public charger.

                  I guess this is what passes for “logic” among serial Tesla bashers. 🙄

            2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              I wrote:

              “…value their time much more than a mere, let’s say, $2-4 per hour!”

              In the interest of complete truthfulness: I should have done the math on this before posting, and I underestimated the cost of electricity here. If we assume a 55 kWh battery pack (for the Model 3), an 80% charge, and the national average of ~18¢ per kWh, that comes to nearly $8. In some areas electricity is more expensive, up to a maximum of ~35¢ per kWh, which would make that charging session, in such areas, worth up to a maximum of about $15.

              So the idea that the average Tesla driver would value his time at that rate isn’t quite as absurd as I suggested.

              1. SparkEV says:

                It is absurd to waste time at DCFC even at $15/hr. If someone wants to pay them $15/hr just to sit there, I’m sure none of them would do it (ie, human roadside advertising). But they’re all too eager to waste away their lives for free charging.

      3. ModernMarvelFan says:

        In those I-5 charging spots, they are often middle of nowhere…

        People don’t go out of the way just to go there for free charging. They need it for their LA to SF trip.

        1. SparkEV says:

          Big news on clogging was on one particular spot on grapevine. There are several along I-5 that’s within 200 miles of LA. Clogging at that particular location only about 50 miles from LA suggests that many did not charge at home, thus couldn’t get to next supercharger over the hill.

          1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            Another “assuming facts not in evidence” fallacy.

            Not everyone stopping at a Supercharger 50 miles from LA is leaving LA for a distant destination; likely not even most of them. Many will be returning home to LA, but not able to quite get there without stopping for a charge on the way home. Others will just be passing thru the area on their way elsewhere.

  8. Alaa says:

    Powerwall 2 will probably be bundled with solar panels. It will make people think in a different way. They can charge the Model 3 from the sun for free. No need to drive to charging station. There is tax credit on solar panels and batteries. I would say it is a very good idea. Free air conditioning from the new inverter types. Free lights etc. And free charging for the car for life. All that for about $7k, maybe less.

    1. Brian says:

      You said free three times, followed by “all that for about $7k”. That’s not free, that’s prepaid. It amazes me that people cannot see the forest through the trees when it comes to evaluating the true cost of solar.

      1. Mark.ca says:

        Lol, that was a fail.
        …however, the SGIP program can actually make the battery free or really close to free.

      2. Mark.ca says:

        …and Brian, to be fair to him, it’s prepaid only until break even, after that you can call it free.

        1. Brian says:

          Yes, that is one valid way to look at it. For my panels, break-even will be about 10 years. So you could say that I’m still paying the utility rate until I hit 10 years, after which it is free.

          The other (and IMO more accurate) way to look at it is that you prepay $X, and you get Y kWh over the lifetime of the system. Therefore you are paying X/Y $/kWh for solar electricity, and compare that to your utility rate. The trouble with this method is that while X is known, Y will not be known until the system fails.

          Both of these views are fair, and account for the cost/benefit of going solar in different ways.

    2. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sven says:

      Alaa said:
      “Powerwall 2 will probably be bundled with solar panels. . . . All that for about $7k, maybe less.”

      In the U.S. it will cost much more than $7K. See the article below for the installed cost, but the figures don’t include any federal or state tax credits/incentives.

      https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/How-Much-Does-a-Rooftop-Solar-System-With-Batteries-Cost

      1. EndResult says:

        If I could buy a 5.6 kW system for just over $15k before subsidies it would be on my roof. There is something off about that article you cite.

        1. Well, in Ontario, Canada, I see offers of 10.0 kW for $29,995, so about $15,000 for 5 kW.

          1. Alaa says:

            Fellows look at this site

            https://www.enfsolar.com/pv/panel

            The price per watt is between $0.5 and $0.4. some times even less. So 10 kW will be $5,000 max. 10 kW is way way too much for me here in Cairo Egypt since I have 3,400 sunny hours per year. But maybe up north! At any rate installing 10 kW is not a big deal. If it is going to cost $10,000 then there must be something wrong. This is more than the batteries and the built in inverter AND the panels all combined. Why? Do it yourself man. Let save our kids from a war in the desert for some oil. PLEASE.

            1. SparkEV says:

              At retail level, 250W panels are going for about $300 (see Amazon). You also need inverters, installs, permits, etc. 1kW system, no labor/permit is going for about $2000. Local companies quoted about $5000 total. Usable solar is over $2/W for just the parts to $5/W installed.

              I don’t know how you got $0.5/W; that may be true for wholesale panel only, but not for usable system.

  9. Mil says:

    I’m not sure this takes the current charging scheme into account:
    Having say 40 Tesla cars per Supercharger doesn’t mean the same now as it used to because SC isn’t free for new cars. This only changed recently so the fees for newer Tesla cars will probably mean that people will be using them a lot less (i.e. they won’t be abusing them as much). And thus the Tesla to SC ratio can be higher whilst maintaining (or even improving) the current charging experience.

  10. Murrysville EV says:

    I’ve never seen a Supercharger in real life.

    In the 3 years I had a Leaf, I never met another Leaf driver, and the number of Leafs I saw on the road in that whole time was probably less than ten.

    Such is the sad state of EV adoption here in western PA. There are sufficient SC locations in the region for when I get my Model 3, but I’m not worried about crowding, that’s for sure.

  11. vvk says:

    Since superchargers are no longer free, most Model 3 owners will only use them on long trips. Also, Tesla has promised to double the number of supercharger locations in 2017. I think the combination of these two factors should be sufficient to prevent an apocalypse.

    However, it would really terrible to really need a supercharger and not be able to use it.

    1. Roy_H says:

      It is possible to charge a Tesla at any charge point. 240vac, CCS, CHAdeMO all with appropriate adapters available from Tesla. People will not be stranded without options if the local SC station is fully occupied.

      1. Jason says:

        CCS is not currently an option for Tesla, so L1/L2 and CHAdeMO are valid options. Poor Tesla drivers, if the SC is busy, just go and use the slower CHAdeMO or L2 station that is probably close by. Use Plugshare and find any number of HPWC as well. If anything Tesla is very well catered for. It is the test of the EV population that has to worry, especially as longer range vehicles with slower charging (aka Bolt) hit the market in higher numbers.
        Anyone believes VW will quickly fulfill their Diesel Gate obligations, time will tell, but IMO they will drag it out as long as possible.

  12. przemo_li says:

    Tesla have all the data.

    Current cars, current superchargers, current use patterns.

    Future cars, future superchargers, estimates of future use patterns.

    Thus improving superchargers in advance is simple math and money problem.
    If there is really congestion issue in the future Tesla will be rightfully blamed. But that’s really stupid stance to take right now. Superchargers are important, so why would Tesla f*** it ** on purpose?

  13. Klaus says:

    The advice I give any potential BEV buyers is only do it if you can level 2 charge at home and buy as much range as you can. Also, if you’re regular daily mileage can’t be met in the worst conditions (speeding/cold weather, high wind) with relative ease by overnight charging, don’t do it.

    Most BEV owners I know tend to agree with that. Unfortunately, most model 3 owners won’t be prior BEV owners, so they may not adhere to that advice.

    Thankfully, I’ll need to use superchargers only a few times a year at most, so I will rarely experience a busy charging location. If that wasn’t the case, I would not buy.

    I also would not want to sit at a supercharger on a regular basis.

    1. pjwood1 says:

      Sage advice, but not necessary for the vast majority considering a 200+ mile car. Is it?

  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

    Betteridge’s Law applies: no.

    Fundamentally there are two things needed: coverage and volume.
    Imagine a list of required site, each with a weighting that represents would-be volume.

    Now imagine that money is taken from each car sold to help pay for the network. Let’s say the money from 200 cars pays for 1 site.

    Say that for each car sold, you take the set-aside and assign it to the locations according to the weights. If you’ve sold 200 cars splitting the money would not give you enough to build any site.

    If you favor volume, each 200 you add/expand a site where there is the highest unserved demand, each time starting with the highest demand site. You will initially serve high-demand areas well and provide no service to low-demand areas.

    If you favor coverage, each 200 you add a site starting with the highest demand and working your way down the list. You will quickly provide coverage to lower-demand areas but will have volume problems in high-demand areas.

    But in either case, as you sell an increasing number of cars then (as long as your set aside is sufficient) you get “200s” for more site until eventually your network meets both volume and coverage demands.

    Model 3, being a high-volume car will _help_ the network, not make it more difficult.

    1. Brian says:

      Good points. And to date, Tesla has favored coverage over volume (boy, those maps look GOOD!). But now they have nearly full coverage and the focus should change to volume for the Model 3. The coverage will still grow, but not like it has over the past few years.

  15. georgeS says:

    It’d definitely going to be a problem. That’s why I chose to by a used Tesla and start enjoying the SC network before it gets over crowded.

    Why wait. All you need is around 50K$ and your in.

    Hurry before it is too late:)

    1. SparkEV says:

      It doesn’t matter when you buy, supercharger clogging will affect everyone who drive Tesla.

  16. Mark.ca says:

    The owners that can charge at home but won’t will soon change their habits when the long distance M3 travelers will crowd the SC’s. It will get crowded either way.

  17. xman says:

    Ban supercharging within a 60-90 mile radius of the owner’s home.

    1. Brian says:

      No way! Those are useful too. Not every road trip is a straight line.

    2. SparkEV says:

      How do you know they won’t give fake mailing address? PO Box is only $90/yr. If some people are willing to waste an hour to get free charging, they will do other silly things to get free stuff.

    3. ModernMarvelFan says:

      So, I can’t get home because I am 50 miles away? Or I can’t run a longer errands with a stop at my house?

      My house L2 doesn’t charge my car nearly as quick as SC.

      You just made Tesla sound less desirable with your silly proposal.

  18. Get Real says:

    The only “Apacolypse” is what is going to happen to the other laggard OEMs when Tesla starts selling hundreds of thousands of compelling BEVs like the Model 3.

    Tesla will also be happy to sell you your own personal electricity generation (bundles anyone) so that you never have to buy electricity again for your house and car(s).

    That is the real revolution here and you can bet that Tesla will soon have solutions for those who don’t own their own homes.

    1. Mister G says:

      BINGO…but fossil fuel industry and paid politicians will not go quietly into the abyss lol

  19. Get Real says:

    Sorry about the spelling of Apocalypse, typing on a tiny keyboard dammit!

    1. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ "Big Hands" sven says:

      Your tiny hands should have had no problems typing on a tiny keyboard. Stop blaming the keyboard for your spelling mistakes! 😉

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      So you need little teeny hands for using little teeny keys? (…and for milking mice!) 🙂

      Little Teeny Eyes

      1.
      Oh we got a new computer but it’s quite a disappointment
      ‘Cause it always gave this same insane advice:
      “OH YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY EYES FOR READING LITTLE TEENY PRINT
      LIKE YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY HANDS FOR MILKING MICE.”

      2.
      So we re-read the instruction book that came with the computer
      But it kept on printing crazy stuff that reads
      Like: “YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY EYES FOR READING LITTLE TEENY PRINT
      LIKE YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY SHOES FOR CENTIPEDES.”

      3.
      So we got an expert genius and he rewrote all the programs
      But we always got results that looked like these:
      “OH YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY EYES FOR READING LITTLE TEENY PRINT
      LIKE YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY LICENSE PLATES FOR BEES.”

      4.
      Then we tested each resistor, every diode and transistor,
      But our EElectronic brain just raves and rants:
      “OH YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY EYES FOR READING LITTLE TEENY PRINT
      LIKE YOU NEED LITTLE BRANDING IRONS FOR BRANDING ANTS.”

      5.
      Now we’re looking for a buyer for a crazy mad computer
      That will only give out crazy mad advice
      Like: “YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY EYES FOR READING LITTLE TEENY PRINT
      LIKE YOU NEED LITTLE TEENY HANDS FOR MILKING MICE.”

      — Tom Digby, 1966

      http://kryptonradio.com/voices/thevoicesoffandom.com/mp3/little_teeny_eyes-bill_mills.mp3

      [Apologies for the all caps; in the early days of computers, that’s all you got on a printout. — Pushy]

  20. Mark C says:

    Hey Ben, you said you were sitting at a Supercharger location in something of a business “campus” setting. Then you went on to pore over your charts and data. I got bored in the middle as I tried to figure out why you were sitting in your car at a Supercharger location, talking about Supercharger congestion and did not turn the camera towards the Superchargers that were overrun with waiting Teslas.

    1. Jason says:

      LMAO, thinking the same thing, didn’t look like any of the stalls were in use, from the limited angle. At least it would have been more compelling of he shot the video at a site where it was actually congested.

  21. MTN Ranger says:

    Fun facts:

    Number of ICE vehicles in US: 262 million (2016)
    Number of individual gas pumps in US: 1+ million

    262:1 ratio of cars to pumps

    I know it’s not directly proportional to EVs, but I was curious.

    1. Brian says:

      Not directly comparable, but interesting. An ICEV has to find a gas pump for ~10 minutes every ~400 miles. A Tesla on a road trip needs to find a supercharger for ~30 minutes every ~150 miles. But if 90% of charging is done at home, you need, on average, ~30 minutes every ~1500 miles.

      Taking the raw numbers, that implies that, on average ICEVs need about (1500/30)/(400/10) = 1.25X, or 25% more pumps per car than EVs.

      Again, the devil is in the details. Thanksgiving will be a much different situation than a weekday in the middle of February.

      1. Zach says:

        Its even less than 10 minutes to gas up.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Yes, but we shouldn’t compare the average wait time at a Supercharger with the average gasmobile driver’s fill-up time. What we should be comparing is highway fill-up times. Most (not all) Supercharger use will be on a long trip. When you stop on a long trip in a gasmobile, you’ll likely want to visit the rest room, and maybe buy a soda before you get back in the car. I’m guessing 5 minutes for a gasmobile fill-up would be approximately average for road trips, but it would be interesting to see actual statistics for that.

          1. ModernMarvelFan says:

            That is pointless comparison.

            1. Some people are arse but most move their cars away from the pump when they stop for bathroom or other stuff.

            2. Doing those things slow down stop time but doesn’t block the pump capacity unlike Tesla charging stations. It slows down the station turn over rate.

            3. Reducing charging times to only 30 minutes or about 150 miles means you have to stop 2x more often for more capacity demand compared against a 10 minutes stop for more than 300 miles gas range.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              MMF said:

              “1. Some people are arse but most move their cars away from the pump when they stop for bathroom or other stuff.”

              I think I can safely say I have never, ever seen anyone do that, nor has anyone I’ve ever ridden with done that. The only people I see pulling up to park directly in front of the convenience store are those who are not buying gas.

              Perhaps you live in a different country? Your use of the term “arse” may suggest a British Commonwealth country?

              Anyway, it’s not commonplace here in the USA, at least not in my experience.

              “2. Doing those things slow down stop time but doesn’t block the pump capacity unlike Tesla charging stations. It slows down the station turn over rate.”

              Since I don’t see people parking in a different place if they want to visit the rest room or get a soda inside the convenience store, to me this is a distinction without a difference.

              “3. Reducing charging times to only 30 minutes or about 150 miles means you have to stop 2x more often for more capacity demand compared against a 10 minutes stop for more than 300 miles gas range.”

              It’s true that the rule of thumb for a Model S road trip is a 30 minute stop for every 150 miles of range, but I’m talking about the future of EV charging. I expect the average battery capacity to increase even as the charge times come down. Competition will drive both these factors.

              The rule of thumb is for passenger vehicle gasmobiles — all of them, not just some — is to be equipped with a gas tank holding enough gas to take the vehicle at least 300 miles. It’s hard for me to imagine that competition won’t drive up the capacity of BEV battery packs to that same minimum of 300 miles. I am, of course, assuming that battery prices will continue to come down and that energy density will continue to rise, allowing more capacity with the same size battery.

              Please note I did not say I expect all this to happen in just a few years. It may take a human generation or so.

            2. SparkEV says:

              “3. Reducing charging times to only 30 minutes”

              With charge taper, reducing the charging time would increase average power. That will increase over-all throughput rate. There was IEV article by Tony Williams which showed that only charging to pre-taper is the best strategy.

          2. As most Gas Stations are no longer full service, we lost maybe a Million or so jobs right there, and since you have to hold the handle, you have to decide if the washroom or the gas pumps get priority! Plus, the same goes if you are hungry, when you get to a service center in the Freeway!

            The reality is, there is today a very small percentage of drivers that pack a travel lunch, bring a pee bottle (or wear depends), just to avoid stopping for 20-40 minutes 1-2 times or more per day of driving!

            More usefull a metric would be the time taken from exiting the Freeway to the time re-entering the Freeway, when stopping for Fuel for the vehicle, food and washroom stops for drivers & passengers; and drilling down, comparison of those times based on the number of people (Adults/Children) in the car, and compare those same metrics for Teslas using Superchargers!

            That would be more telling of the Challenge/Benefit spread, or ratio, of Gas Stations Versus Superchargers!

            Only after such an in depth study, compaing area by area for anomolies and inconsistencies, can any scientific arguments hold water! Right now we are mostly arguing individual, selective, anecdotal evidence! (“This is MY experience with This or That action, so everone will feel about this the way I do!”)

            Sure, sometimes Superchargers might have a 1-2 car per stall weight sometimes, but Ferries from the BC mainland to Vancouver Island, lineups are Generally refered in terms of “One to Two Sailing Waits”, and sometimes, when it is busy, or thete are more busses and trucks, it could see a 3 Sailing Wait!

            I also have been in a Costco Gas Station Line Up, but it was still a 15-20 minute wait, on a quiet day and time, just to get to that elusive ‘5 Minute Fill Up!’ So that was a 4 car wait, in proportion!

      2. SparkEV says:

        Depending on how far the destination (or hotel) is, it would be about 5 or 6 hours of driving with 1 or 2 hours break (8 hours on road). At 70 MPH average speed, that’s about 400 miles. That’s one supercharge session if you charged full at home, and you’d pick a hotel with destination charger.

        Gas car would need one fuel stop.

        Effectively, 250 miles range EV would be equivalent to gas car in terms of charger usage in long trips: about once a day.

        1. ModernMarvelFan says:

          One usually gas up the day before so there will be NO need to stop for gas.

          Also, finding an hotel with destination charging isn’t always a choice.

          One can, but usually compromise for other things such as price, location and distance to desired destination.

          What if you have multiple destination over a week? like a family trip? It becomes harder, doesn’t it?

          1. SparkEV says:

            My point being, you need to gas up once per day, just like you need to stop once per day for supercharging with 250 miles range EV.

            If you pick any random hotel, there may not be destination charging. But most people make reservations at a hotel, and they’d make sure it has destination charging.

            Even without destination charging, you’d need two supercharging per day vs one gas station stop. That isn’t the end of the world on multiple destination trips.

  22. RunningonSouler says:

    In addition to pay-for-use at Superchargers, the other key to avoiding Supercharger problems when Tesla is producing hundreds of thousands of Model 3 and Y vehicles, and eventually millions, will be to deploy “residential” Destination Chargers at apartment and townhouse communities where Tesla vehicle owners don’t have access to dedicated chargers in their own garage. As it stands now, if you don’t have a dedicated parking space with an individual charger, it is difficult to do home charging overnight, and local Superchargers might be the only option for such people.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Here’s an option: People who don’t have a dedicated parking spot at home, and who cannot charge their car at work, should not buy a BEV! And those who already own a BEV and plan to move should do one of the following:

      1. Ensure any place they move to has access to an EV charger.

      2. Arrange with the landlord to have an EV charger installed for their use.

      3. Sell the BEV and buy a car that actually fits their new lifestyle.

      Just because I’m an EV advocate doesn’t mean I think an EV is for everyone, at this early stage of the game. Eventually, all parking spaces should have EV slow chargers within reach. But that’s not going to happen today or tomorrow. The EV revolution won’t happen overnight.

  23. Nix says:

    This article ignores that other charging infrastructure is also planned to be built around the world. In fact VW is mandated to build high speed chargers in the US and is starting first in California.

    There are multiple initiatives for both CHAdeMO and SAE Combo CCS charger networks with upwards of 300-350 kW charging.

    Tesla is a member of both the CHAdeMO and SAE standards. It would be a mistake to assume that Tesla cars will never be able to use those future chargers. These future chargers will provide additional charging options to future Tesla vehicles.

    1. pjwood1 says:

      But we’re just hearing of a 50KW corridor, on I-95 (East), with only the wiring for 150KW? Maybe its easier to see a lag between more Model 3’s and the charging you describe. Possibly a long time.

      The first order problem is another over-commitment one of Tesla’s. Telling the people you sold free charging, to go home.

  24. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    Destination charging will help more than you think. Hotels along the freeway, if they have at least 10KW-20KW chargers for over nite guests, they can wake up to a full tank.
    Those pedly 3.3K charges sparsely deployed is just plain weak..

    1. Per “Those pedly 3.3K charges sparsely deployed is just plain weak…” I agree, in part, as that would be about right for Workplace Charging power.

      And 7-10 kW EVSE’s, should be able to deliver 50-85 kWh of Energy at a Hotel if you get plugged in, eat, catch the evening news, get 6-7 hours sleep, grab breakfast, and unplug & hit the road again! One might need more, but I think even 10 kW should be sufficient even for a Tesla 100D, for overnight charging! Same with 7 kW for a 75D!

  25. SilveradoCyn says:

    High speed DC chargers draw a very large amount of power from the grid, and require the local utility to drop in a higher powered circuit than for normal service. There are major delays in installing DC charging in the permitting process, and having the local power utility install the service. To avoid this “Charge-agedon” issue Tesla, VW, ChargePoint and others need to get the process started immediately to locate and permit the charger sites.

    1. It would be so much easier if Business, Power/Utility Companies, And Installers could get/give easy access to the data of: How much power is needed per head, How much power is available on site, and What % of that can be used for EV Charging!

      If that data was available in a database that was searchable, installers could just say how much power they want, and do a filtered search!

      From the results, if they could select the sites they want, in something like an eBay competitive Auction, then winners could simply be notified of their winning site selection: “Congratulations, you have won Site CYZ for your 4 DC Fast Chargers plus 4 Level 2 Charging Stations! Please confirm payment for this bid within 72 hours, to keep it! Your documents for your site plan should be submitted within 96 Hours for our Permit Team to Expedite the Permits. Any delays may amplify permit processing delays!”

      Competetive requirements, like: Ability to Complete the Project, Ability to Pay, prior history of similar project completions, level of Business Commitment to expanding EV Charging Infrastructure!

      Points could be awarded for each advantageous performance aspect. And higher scores count for something like 60% to 75% of a winning bid factored in! 25-40% could be a factor all its own, for putting in chargers: a) where none exist within 50 miles, and b) where these chargers will help complete a City-City pair for EV Driving.

      Unfortunately, we have no such ‘eCharge’ clearance house for venders to offer their sites to! So finding suitable sites (Due Diligence), is still a sliw process, complicated by a Thousand differing Regulations, from Site to Site, City to City, County to County, State to State (Province to Province), etc.

      Such a data clearing house service, would likely have to vet, not just sites, for available power, but legal, and other practicle suitabilies, just to begin to list them!

      Registerd Bidders would need to complete an extensive EV Charger Installation History Profile for record, and update it before each bidding cycle (30-90 days)!

  26. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    The alarmism in this article seems rather overblown. All that is necessary to prevent more congestion at Superchargers than is already present, is for Tesla to build additional Supercharger stalls to keep the same ratio between cars and Superchargers that exist now. I don’t know if Tesla will actually keep that ratio down over time, but it’s certainly possible. It doesn’t take that long to build a Supercharger station.

    Keeping the current ratio might be physically problematic in some busy areas in California, where frequent congestion is already occurring and where the real estate available for expansion may be limited. But elsewhere, it’s just a matter of whether or not Tesla is willing to pay for continual expansion of the network.

    I’m glad that Tesla has moved to restrict unnecessary occupation of Supercharger stalls, by imposing (in some instances) charging fees, an imposing “parking fees” for those who let their car sit around after it has finished charging. That is something that really needed to be done to discourage abuse of the system, and to at least somewhat abate the “tragedy of the commons” situation.

    1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

      “something that really needed to be done to discourage abuse of the system”

      That goes for the current public DCFC’s AND L2’s as well.

      1. Still nothing exists that tracks which vehicles pull up to an EV Charging Spot, and don’t Plug In! (Regardless of it being an EV or an ICE, it should be considered the same, for any site that has an installed EVSE! Maybe not the same for 120V ‘Block Heater’ spots that just have ‘EV Charging’ signage.) That could also be part of the cause of congestion, in some cases!

        Until the Charging Stations can have a Camera, and either directly process Licence Plate Recognition and Identification, or submit the images to a local parking enforcement operations place for recognition, for the issuing of Citations for: ‘Park on Private Property Without Consent’, or ‘Willfully Blocking Access to Critical Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities’, which contain a copy of the Photo showing The Vehicle Plate, Location, Date, & Time embedded in it, and a progressively more expensive Ticket Fee for habitual ignirant ICE or EV Holes: $10.00 for 1st Infraction; $25.00 for 2nd Infraction; $75.00 for 2nd Infraction within 30 days; $90.00 for 2nd Infraction within 60 days; and $150.00 for 3rd Infraction within 180 days. $300.00 for 4th Infraction within 24 Months.

        After 2nd Infraction, vehicle plate, and owner info gets shared with other jurisdictions accross the Country!

        Any Infraction After the 4th Infraction, a notice for a 60 day Licence Suspension and Driver Retraining is issued! (As at such point, it is evident that, for the offender, money is not a concern!)

        So simple message: Not an EV, and/or Not Charging, Do Not Use Charging Stalls! (Separate matter, Tesla has this managed now: Full? Move along!)

    2. SparkEV says:

      Alarmism is bit overblown, but it is a deep concern. The 400 kWh Tesla gives for free will have consequence. At average power of 75 kW with taper, that’s over 5 hours of free supercharger usage for every Tesla. You can bet that almost everyone will use that up, whether they need it or not, especially during busy holiday season.

      With almost 2M Teslas on road by end of this decade, that is surely going to clog up the system.

      1. You can be sure that Tesla will not before then stop installing Superchargers, Destination Chargers, and by then will quite likely have made further improvements in the High Traffic areas!

        Simple ideas to deal with lineups: Double the number of Charging Cables on the Charging Head at the Stall, add a Stall on the other side of the Divider where the Head is mounted, install local Switching at the Head, to begin charging the next Tesla Connected in sequence, as the 1st Tesla needs less power, same as is currently done on an A/B level, but taken to an A/B/C/D Level!

        As Supplied Power increases, this also becomes an even more practical idea.

        But even now, it cuts physical lineups, while it actually provides more and better data, since it would know directly that 16 Tesla’s have plugged into an (Originally) 8 Stall Station, at which days, times, and for how long!

        Such data would probably be richer, than waiting for each of the existing 8 Charging Heads to be Vacated, and Reconnected a short # of minutes later, by a car from the lineup!

        In my mind, it provides more valuable data also for determining how big a Powerpack Install that Station would need.

        I have also spoken often here, or on Supercharger congestion stories, about the value of also adding an Equal Number of 10-18 kW Tesla HPWC’s at or opposite the existing Supercharger Site, for those who either: a) want to top off from 80% to 100%, or those who are not in an immediate rush to move on, and will be spending 1-2 or more hours at this location, anyway!

        Combining idea A, above (Extra Or Dual Charging Cables per SC Head), with idea B (Adding at least an Equal Number of 10 kW to 18 kW Tesla or J1772 Level 2 Charging Stations, could provide a relatively lower cost Upgrade Solution Path for sites which experience ‘Holiday Rush’ traffic, but are otherwise not saturated for the rest of the year!

        However, for sites which are constantly busy, it might require the Above Idea Combination, enhanced by both: Extra on Site Supercharger Capacity, and a second or Additional complete Supercharger Site (Also with the Dual Cords + Level 2 Charging), within a 1-5 mile distance of the current busy site.

  27. trackdaze says:

    Teslas can also use third party charging networks no?

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Sure, you can buy an adapter to use CHAdeMO or CSS chargers.

      Unfortunately, TEsla charges outrageous prices for their adapters. This is one place where we really need the aftermarket to step in and offer 3rd party adapters at a significant cost savings! (But perhaps patents would prevent 3rd parties from making a plug to fit Tesla’s proprietary plug format?)

  28. Michael Bq says:

    There is a very easy way to solve this and it is coming. Increase the rate of charge and the cars will only have to be there for 15 min! There have been enough hints that it is coming!

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      But that would require the cars to be designed and built to safely accept a charge at that high current level. I’m sure that will happen eventually, but it doesn’t help anyone who owns a car built using the older, lower charging standard. That is, every Tesla car on the road today, and quite possibly the first-generation Model 3 also.

    2. SparkEV says:

      If every EV used multiples of SparkEV batteries, it’d need 20 minutes to 80% and no taper. Unfortunately, companies are not doing that, so SparkEV remains the quickest charging EV in the world to 80%.

  29. Miloudi says:

    with big numbers comes the battery swap options to satisfact costomers

    1. With something stronger than the 1/4 inch thick Aluminum plate at the bottom of the Battery Pack, but not added on, like the current Titanium Obstacle Crushing Plate, battery swapping times could again be reduced, and get back to the original demonstrated time as shown when Tesla Demo’d it!

      If they can take $1,000.00 Reservations for 400,000 Model 3’s, it would Seem they could take a $500.00 Refundable Deposit / Reservation from those who would like to do Battery Swaps for Traveling!

      Even Stranger, they could ask for a $500.00 Reservation for Each of the Number of Swaps you would want to do on a given trip, with it being credited 50% towards your personal swaps ($50.00 per swap, minus a 50% credit, = $25.00 per swap for your first 20 swaps per $500.00 Reservation, once locked in)!

      They could say they need 100,000 Reservations in any Market Region (USA-Canada-Mexico; Europe; China-Pacific) to proceed with a Full Commitment, but with 50,000 Reservations, they could support denser Sub Regions that had a Higher Reservation Rate (IE: Califonia, San Diego to Portland, Interstate 5; New York to Florida, Interstate 95; New York to Chicago, Interstate 90; Etc.)!

      Even Now, if the swaps could be a size bigger than what you bought, lots of people would like the option, to just swap once for trips, to the bigger battery!

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Tesla’s test marketing of battery swapping was a bust. Few customers showed any interest, and according to what I read recently, nobody who actually swapped a Model S battery pack ever did it a second time.

      If there is anything that is safe to predict about the future of Tesla, it’s that they are not going to pursue battery swapping tech for passenger cars. (There is a much better case to be made for battery swapping for long-range BEV heavy trucking fleets.)

      1. SparkEV says:

        If wasting 1 hour for supercharging is free while battery swap cost money, people won’t pay. But if supercharging cost even half that of battery swap, I’m sure many people would’ve used it.

        Battery swap is actually a very good idea. It takes away the argument for FCEV. Unfortunately “free charging” has killed it.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          I don’t agree. If battery swapping for passenger cars made economic sense, then PBP ((Project) Better Place) would have been successful, or at least it could have been.

          The problem with battery swapping, from a cost/benefit viewpoint, is that you have to build out a network of battery swap stations to cover the entire area your customers want to drive in before you get any customers — or any income at all. Since battery swap stations are quite expensive, and so are the extra battery packs you’d have to buy to stock every swap station, that’s not a viable economic model. No matter how you try to work it, the up-front cost is much too high.

          It astonishes me that those who invested in (Project) Better Place couldn’t see that. It was quite obvious to me even the first time I read about PBP… and I’m not even a “financial guy”! The only thing which surprised me about PBP’s bankruptcy is that it came even faster than I expected.

          Of course, the economics for Tesla offering battery swapping wouldn’t be quite the same as they were for PBP, because Tesla’s profits wouldn’t be entirely dependent on selling monthly subscriptions to a battery swapping network. But the cost/benefit would be about as bad for Tesla as it was for PBP.

          * * * * *

          The reason why I suggest that battery swapping might make sense for long-range BEV heavy trucking fleets running regular delivery routes, is that the trucking fleet would only need to install battery swap stations along corridors where they run a lot of trucks. With significantly fewer stations, costs would be much lower per vehicle. Assuming delivery routes running on a fixed schedule, they could also predict how many extra battery packs each station needed, and when, so they could easily control the inventory at each station according to entirely predictable need.

          This would be a very different economic situation than what PBP had to deal with, having to keep extra packs at all their swap stations because random fluctuation in demand would require every station to always have more packs than would actually be needed.

  30. ModernMarvelFan says:

    The easiest way to solve this is just to add more chargers. Not necessarily more per location but more locations.

    Maybe within 10 miles or 15 miles of current congested locations to spread out the crowd a bit.

    More destination chargers will help too but that will take the longest time to achieve.

    1. Per: “More destination chargers will help too but that will take the longest time to achieve.” Why would it ‘take the longest time to achieve’?

      I can’t see how a 400 Amp service for 240V is harder or slower to install with 8 Tesla HPWC’s or Clipper Creek CS100 J1772’s wired for 50 Amps each; than some 400+ Amp service at 26,000 Volts, plus adding their own transformer, plus Supercharger components, plus power control logic, etc!

  31. Bob Nan says:

    First of all, there is going to be a charge for the Model-3 since its only priced at $35,000.

    Secondly there are many non Tesla charging stations which can be made use of.

    Thirdly, every Model-3 owner can charge in their home during the night for the daily trips and any other trip that is less than 215 miles.

    So no worries about crowding at the superchargers.

    The real danger to the World will happen only when the Oil prices cross $100/barrel.

    1. “The real danger to the World will happen only when the Oil prices cross $100/barrel.” – ONCE AGAIN!

      This is the thing, it is not really the Price of Crude, or the Pump Price, but rather a Rapid Spike Up In The Price, that cause people to take a look around at their choices!

      Interest in EV Conversions and EV Conversion Manuals Spiked Up when Hurricane Katrina Spiked Gas Pump Prices up (in Southern Ontario, Canada) from about $1.00 a Litre, to $1.35 a Litre, in under a month!

      Even in a shower, most can handle a gradual warming of the water, but go from warm to very hot in 1 second, people react quickly! (Same if you go to quite colt just as fast!)

      Another reason why people don’t get much upset about pollution: it is a very slow and gradual change! But have an oil well catch fire, and people notice it!

      This is why PHEV’s work so well, not everyone can Quit Gas ‘Cold Turkey!’

      They can handle a gradual mind shift that a Hybrid or a Plugin Hybrid offers, but a Pure EV? Too big a shock for them to handle!

  32. PHEVvsBEV says:

    This fast charging network talk for BEVs is absurd. Why not, just go PHEV w/ 50 mile range. For short range, which is how most cars are driven, use the battery and charge at home or work. For long range use gas, the fast refueling network is already paid for and in place.

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