Tesla Expected Only 135,000 Model 3 Pre-Orders – Video

1 year ago by Eric Loveday 57

tesla

Tesla’s Jon McNeill, president of global sales.

At the Belron conference in Lisbon on May 19, Jon McNeill, president of global sales at Tesla Motors, spoke of the Model 3 and the automaker’s expectations for reservations occurring within the first month of pre-orders being open.

According to McNeill, execs at Tesla had a poll going and his guess for first-month reservations was among the highest of the polled execs at 135,000.

Well, that figure is significantly lower than the 373,000 Model 3 reservations logged thus far, so it’s safe to say that interest in the Model 3 has far exceeded Tesla’s initial expectations.

Video description via eGear:

“Before the introduction of the Model 3, the Tesla top-executives held a poll about the number of reservations. Jon McNeill, president of global sales, had the highest numbers with 135.000. At the moment of writing (May 21, 2016), already 373.000 Model 3’s have been pre-ordered. In other words, 3 times more than initially predicted. (recorded at the Belron conference, May 19, 2016, Lisbon).”

Source: eGear

Tags: , , ,

57 responses to "Tesla Expected Only 135,000 Model 3 Pre-Orders – Video"

  1. Speculawyer says:

    Ahh . . . very interesting. I wondered what their internal estimates were.

    Our estimates here were pretty similar (for a month out).

    1. evcarstugatso says:

      135,000 orders? When it all washes out ., they will be lucky to have 135,000 real buyers that stick ! that is., After they’re all ready to commit and have read the fine PRINT!!…Hope I’m Wrong….

      1. Mitchell Burns says:

        You have no basis or proof of your absurd statement. Don’t just say it, prove it

        1. evcarstugatso says:

          HEAR ME NOW …, BELIEVE ME LATER ….f00L

          1. Big Solar says:

            believe some anonymous guy on the internet or else we are fools? Yeah, sure, why not.

      2. Bacardi says:

        Guessing you’ve never been right about Tesla in the past…If you want to be a hater at least back up your claims…There will be a second reveal which is expected to bring official specs and therefore another quarter million preorders…

      3. Rob Stark says:

        Once people see,feel,and are able to test drive a production Model 3 Tesla will have at least 400k real buyers with real cash per annum.

      4. Speculawyer says:

        If they deliver the car according to these specs, they are going to have far more orders than they have now. 215+ miles on cheap electricity for a 5 person 4-door sedan is a GREAT bargain.

        1. evcarstugatso says:

          Can anyone tell me if Tesla Has auto. self dimming rear view mirrors….Cheers

          1. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

            Go to the design studio.

            https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design
            Scroll down to “Standard Equipment” and click “View all”.

            Scroll to “Specs”, “Interior” and down the list you’ll see “Electrochromatic mirrors”.

            1. evcarstugatso says:

              thx …Cheers !

      5. TomArt says:

        You apparently have a very low opinion of people who are willing to part with $1k USD for 2-3 years (or more in RHD markets).

        These are not just clicks on a webpage button, or the $99 reservation fee that Nissan had when the Leaf first went on sale…this is serious money for a lot of people, including those of us who cannot afford a Model S but can stretch to a $35k vehicle (low $40s with options).

      6. RexxSee says:

        Another routinely negative comment from an EV basher.

  2. Peter says:

    Tesla is going much risk in Europe, advertising with 35$. While the base Model S costs 71k $ in US in Europe you pay 82 – 84k € depending to the country! So much more than people expect and newspaper article write 31k €, they forget VAT and transport. With 40k € in Europe many peorders will be canceled, up to 50%.

    1. TomArt says:

      That might be true for some, but I sincerely doubt anywhere near 50%.

      I’m sure most European reservation holders are aware of the costs associated with imports. For some that are not, many of them will find out through current Tesla owners, online forums, blogs, etc.

      1. Peter says:

        In the last weeks I notice three acquaintances ordered a Model 3. They can not afford a right apartment and I assume they are not best income. Actually they lease 20k € cars and all had the firm opinion Model 3 will be around 30k €. I want not say their error, it’s many media only calculate $ to €. The Volt was announced as Ampera in Europe for 30k € in car magazines, in the end it costs 42k €! Media error. Same thing with Ampera-E (Bolt), car magazines say: 32k €, but we can expect nearly 42k €. (VAT ~ 20 %, 7 % import tax europe and transport)

        1. Mikael says:

          I’ve counted on €35k. Generally historically US prices can be translated directly into Euros to compensate for taxes etc.

          If it goes up to €40k my reservation is out. €35 is already a lot more than I’ve ever spent on a car.

          1. wavelet says:

            Tesla will not be selling any base version Model 3 initially (they’ve explicitly said this), and probably a lot longer, at least1-1.5 years — as long as there’s reasonable demand.
            Musk himself has estimated the average selling price (ASP) for a Model 3 in the US to be $42K (not incl. incentives)…
            The equivalent in Europe (taking into account only 20% VAT and the current exchange rate) would be €44700 .

        2. Seth says:

          And for those same tax reasons the EU model S cars have their drivetrain fitted in Tilburg, The Netherlands as this is significant enough to brand it as “made in the EU”. That alone saves 7% import taxes.

          I’m not sure how Opel/GM is going to handle this, as they’ve said that these will be built in the US and transported (as a wohle?).

          The difference between the Euro and the Dollar has been shifting over the past couple of years. There have indeed been times were even with taxes and us $ price would equal the EU number with taxes.

          With the dollar to euro what it is now, the 21% tax is quite hefty, but atleast the car tax in NL for BEV is just 4% of the price of a new vehicle instead of 43% for a ICE.

          And BEV have exemption of road taxes, so it’s not all bad. The fuel costs are also reasonably balanced out with about 7$ per gallon currently, eventhough the electricity is between 20 to 25 euro cents per kWh.

    2. ffbj says:

      Hardly.

    3. Speculawyer says:

      The Osborne effect might hit them a little. But right now it is a long way off until the Model 3 ships so anyone that wants a Tesla car now has to go Model S or X. I also suspect that they will introduce more features for the Model S & X that will keep them at a premium over the Model 3 . . . bigger batteries, more performance, etc.

      1. Nathanael says:

        With slightly under 400,000 pre-orders, while only manufacturing ~100,000 Model S and X, I think the Osborne effect will be outweighed by the publicity aura.

    4. evcarstugatso says:

      Amazing response! Lets hope they can Build it & build it right for that price , “”NOT going to Happen..”” I am sure there will NOT BE ONE SINGLE M3 go out the door for LESS THAN $42,000.00 when it’s all said & DONE ! They will find a way to Jerk Up the price “Guaranteed”. They have all that Figured out already I am CERTAIN of that!!

      1. Mitchell Burns says:

        Oh really, how and why

      2. Mister G says:

        Stop your whining…if you want low price buy yourself a golf cart or bicycle.

        1. evcarstugatso says:

          I have a Golf Cart & a Bicycle …ha ha ha ha

      3. Bacardi says:

        You’re guessing $42k? I’ll guess $1!

      4. Nom de Plume says:

        You don’t know how quotation marks work, do you?

      5. ffbj says:

        I must congratulate you for you are making the other anti-Tesla people seem reasonable and
        intelligent by comparison.

        1. evcarstugatso says:

          Tesla will control your life, if you let them..

          1. Priusmaniac says:

            Tesla will control your car pollution and end oil dependence.

        2. evcarstugatso says:

          YES, ffbj, You are the smartest by far..l o l …You should try matching wits with Elon Musk …& See how far You get….

      6. Marshal G says:

        Another anonymous internet anti-Tesla hate troll. Tell me evcarstugatso which one are you, shorter who’s freaking out about stock price not going down fast enough, or just garden variety Faux News viewer who keeps getting told that EV’s are a communist plot to destroy ‘murka?

        1. evcarstugatso says:

          Marshall , I wish I had Bought Tesla Stock @ $25..& I want to buy a Model3 as well. I am a Cautious Optimist That Doesn’t Jump on the band wagon “Hastily” I look at all the facts 1st! & Read between the lines….(NOT PARANOID) …Tesla Has Too much Control Over Your Car after You Buy it, Wether Under Warantee or Not …”Proprietary Rights” …they call it…..YOU NEVER REALLY OWN THE ENTIRE CAR Even though you Paid $$$ for it..Like a computer they own the “Operating Systems”, they “Monitor” your EVERY MOVE”….(Maybe They SEE/HEAR & Record you Too???)…they “CAN” shut the car down & make it useless to you “if they Justify to do so” ..ie..,If Some repairs are done that they feel should have been carried out by them only….& “FOREVER” & they will Not Sell Parts, unless they do the work. So… Before you sign., “READ THE FINE PRINT” better still, Play it safer & get a lawyer to read it & confirm it..THERE ARE MANY DO’s & DON’T’s Attached here & “FOREVER” As Much As ADMIRE & LIKE MUSK….I am beginning to think That maybe Musk may Have a bit of dictator in him. They TESLA will not operate like traditional car companies. AGAIN….I’m hoping to be wrong .BUT??????. Before I Buy., I Will Make Sure!………. I do have my reservations.

          1. Nathanael says:

            Tesla has not behaved themselves properly when it comes to the car’s software.

            We have strong evidence that they’re using open source software and violating the license.

            However, bluntly, you can do whatever you like to the car and Tesla won’t stop you. Musk said “Hacking is a gift”. If you want to disconnect all the “phone home” features, do so.

    5. Mitchell Burns says:

      50% I don’t know where you people come up with such ridiculous factoids which in reality are not. Do some research then get back to us.

    6. Dane says:

      “While the base Model S costs 71k $ in US in Europe you pay 82 – 84k € depending to the country!”

      82 – 84k € in Europe? I wish, but that’s far from the truth. Here in Denmark the base Model S 70 2WD is 801,557 DKK which equals 108k € or 121k $!
      The Model S reservation is also 50% more expensive here than in the US, as you have to pay 10,000 DKK which equals 1500 $.

      1. Chris says:

        To Reserve a Model S here in the US costs $2500 right now. To reserve a Model 3 costs $1000. Which did you mean?

        1. Peter says:

          Sorry I meant to reserve a Model 3.
          I didn’t think you could still reserve a Model S, can’t you just go in a buy one without any reserve?

          1. Nathanael says:

            You can *order* a Model S — you still have to make a reservation payment. They then build the car for you custom.

            If you want to buy an inventory car, there are a few, but not many.

    7. Martin Winlow says:

      Well, I don’t know where you are getting you information from but it is completely WRONG!

      I bought a MS60 a year ago in the UK and although I had a few extras added, the base price then was £51k (after the UK grant of £5k). At todays exchange rate that is… oh look! US$71k!

      Whilst I strongly suspect our £5k grant will be no more by the time the M3 is available here, I expect it will be pretty close to the then equivalent of the $35k that Tesla are suggesting. But we shall see. We may have the fall out of Brexit to contend with by then… On the other hand….???

  3. ModernMarvelFan says:

    The biggest question is that those 372K orders are orders for the next 5 years or there will be more coming in.

    That is the biggest questions. Many of those orders are due to years of pent up demand for something that is 200 miles capable, affordable, safe, good looking and drives nicely.

    So, nothing is available until now. Is that it or there will be magnitude of more demand coming.

    1. Speculawyer says:

      Well if the car meets those specs and has that price, I think that once it gets out into the real world there will be a lot more people who see it and want it.

    2. TomArt says:

      The Model S has long gone through pent-up demand in their market segment, and still going strong.

      I see no reason for the Model 3 market to be any different, particularly once they are on the road and people see them and talk to the owners, like what happened (and still happens) with the Model S.

      1. ModernMarvelFan says:

        Model S is going relatively strong in a market that is dominated by itself. Since there are no other cars with 200 miles+, it is that or nothing.

        Once there are 200 miles+ choices for lower price, things will start to get interesting.

        Model S is selling on sheer performance and “coolness” which might wear out after a while. We will see. Tesla isn’t dropping everything to ramp up Model S production volume, is it? Plus, Model S can always lower price to gain sales if it needs to.

        Model 3 is different. Once Tesla is investing in capacity to produce 100K to 200K car per year, if it isn’t sold at those price, there are very little room to discount or increase sales as the margins will be thin. Will it continue really depends on whether EV will go mainstream.

        However, if any EV can go mainstream, Tesla probably has the best chance.

        1. przemo_li says:

          “going relatively strong in a market that is dominated by itself.”

          What kind of sentence is that.

          Dominating any market is just “relatively” strong performance?

          Did You even read ordinary cars news recently? Like Tesla S selling best in luxury segment in USA or overtaking luxury Mercedeses here in EU?

          Tesla S do “realatively strong” OK, but in luxury segment.

          What nonsense You are spouting about lowering prices. Its luxury segment You increase its price to get more sales!
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veblen_good

          As for Model 3 analysis, You are right there. Margins will be thinner there, while Tesla will relay on volume sales.\

          Model 3 story is thus no different then any other volume produced 35k$ car out there.

          Others succeeded or failed. Tesla can thus also succeed or fail.

          If they bring “coolness” and “performance” though we can only predict success… 😉

          1. ModernMarvelFan says:

            It means that it is competing against traditional ICE but dominating the EVs that competes in that market. There are no other luxury BEVs in that market.

            Now, as far beating other ICE is concerned, Tesla isn’t catering to traditional luxury ICE market.

            Time after time, we hear about people “reach up” to buy Tesla Model S who would haven’t spent that much otherwise. Will that be still the case once the Model 3 is out or other 200 miles BEV? That is where potentially Model 3 will eat into Model S sales.

            As long as other traditional luxury ICE makers don’t offer competing BEVs in that segment, Tesla will enjoy its own dominance since it will continue to straddle two segments. (green and luxury performance).

        2. Nathanael says:

          “Once there are 200 miles+ choices for lower price, things will start to get interesting. ”

          Yeah, but Chevy — the only company offering a 200+ mile car for a price comparable to Model 3, and the price is slightly higher — doesn’t have fast charging or a Supercharger network, which turn out to be enormously valuable selling points. I wonder when Chevy will get around to do it.

          Tesla’s got a ridiculous lead time due to the other companies just not bothering to compete.

    3. przemo_li says:

      Its sill on two accounts.

      One is unspoken assumption that the demand will dry up. Something convinced those people to place reservations and penny up 1000$. Even though they did not knew about Model 3.

      The other is that its something abnormal. Its cornerstone of economy actually to people look up to “flgaships” offerings of various competitors when actually buying cheaper and simpler offering.

      So people choosing Model 3 ’cause they can not afford Model S is the same thing that happens to any other car brand out there. It works for others perpetually, so it will work for Tesla.

      Pent up demand that can be finally satisfied by Tesla is thus good thing for Tesla and it bode well for the future.

      1. ModernMarvelFan says:

        “Something convinced those people to place reservations and penny up 1000$. Even though they did not knew about Model 3.”

        They knew they want a Tesla. That is all. Tesla has a brand.

        Now, I am going to ask you this, if the deposit is non-refundable, how many of those people wouldn’t have put the money down otherwise?

        I am willing to bet at least 2/3 of them wouldn’t have done it…

  4. Murrysville EV says:

    I think Model 3 reservations could peak around 444k by year’s end, then decline to about 421k by the time it starts shipping in late 2017.

    Cancellations will continue (for a variety of reasons), but most people will stick with it. Of course, availability of actual competitive cars could drive up cancellations.

    1. Mister G says:

      I don’t see any real competition for model 3 from gas guzzler manufacturers…in terms of style, appearance, and performance.

    2. Nathanael says:

      You’re wrong. Model S reservation counts continued to increase all the way until the Model S was actually produced. The same will happen with Model 3.

      This happens due to *increased publicity*. Believe it or not, a lot of people still don’t even realize that Tesla *exists*.

      I figure Tesla’s probably pulling in a net of about 100 reservations per week (new reservations minus cancellations) at this point.

  5. JeremyK says:

    I would bet that a large number of people that put down money on a Model 3, haven’t even done the math to see what the monthly payment would be (and will probably have some sticker shock when the time comes to actually place an order). Many of these people are used to leasing cars, and I don’t believe that is an option with Tesla (or is it?).

    Even at the lower price point, the M3 is still an aspirational vehicle. Some that put down $1000 now, likely assume they’ll be making more money in three years, will have moved out of their apt. and into a house, etc. Not all of those assumptions will come true.

    It would be interesting to see which demographic is most strongly represented by the preorders. If we’re talking about young professionals in their late 20s/early 30s then there are a lot of life changes that will happen by the time the M3 comes to market. Marriage, kids, could all potentially impact those deposits…but we will see.

    1. ModernMarvelFan says:

      It is because low interest rate and refundable deposit.

      If it is higher amount or “non refundable”, the reservation wouldn’t be nearly as high.

      I knew I wouldn’t have put my reservation in if it wasn’t refundable at any time.

    2. Nathanael says:

      Tesla offers leases, mostly through banks. Tesla doesn’t have a lot of capital to do internal financing so they’ve been trying to get leases set up through financing from third-party banks. The banks seem happy to do it.

  6. Pilar says:

    There are some fascinating points in time in this post but I do’t
    understand if I see all of them middle to heart.
    There’s some validity but I will take hold opinion until I look into it further.
    Good article , thanks and we want more! Added to FeedBurner as well.