Tesla Earnings: Jim Cramer, Analysts Weigh In On Surprising Market Reaction – Video

2 years ago by Jay Cole 71

On Wednesday after the market closed, Tesla reported 4th quarter earnings (full details), and despite missing the street estimates by almost a buck (8 cent profit estimated vs 87 loss in reality), the stock immediately traded up as a result.

"It Could Be This...Or It Could Be That..."

“It Could Be This…Or It Could Be That…”

Could it have been Tesla CEO Elon Musk’d projection of profitability in 2016?  The guidance that the company will sell up to 90,000 Model S and Model X sedans in 2016?  Or perhaps the news that Tesla will be debuting its “cheaper”, 200 mile Model 3 on March 31st…along with taking $1,000 deposits on the same day?

Let’s listen to the analysts have a “kick at the can” explaining the bullish reaction, including CNBC’s Jim Cramer:

“The one that is working the biggest (showing gains again another tough trading day) is Tesla, and I think it is hilarious because there are people telling me that they are losing a fortune per car, and there are people telling me they are going to have a great 2016. 

All I can say is there is ‘something for everyone Tesla’…but it is up, and that could be because it has been down so much.  Or it could be because Elon Musk said this is our year, and he is so hated, and so loved, it is hard to get your arms around it.”

Thanks Jim, pretty sure we are more confused now.

Phil LeBeau (via Squwk Box/CNBC) comes prepared with some actual data, and a direct quote from the Tesla CEO…which is always nice:

Constellation Research’s Ray Wang:

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71 responses to "Tesla Earnings: Jim Cramer, Analysts Weigh In On Surprising Market Reaction – Video"

  1. SparkEV says:

    If there’s an award for saying nothing in as many words as possible, Cramer just won.

    1. Mister G says:

      Didn’t this guy miss the wall street collapse of 2008 that created the Great Recession?

      1. Alpha777 says:

        Miss it? He conspired with the Banks and hyped their stocks as they crashed. Attempting to get his viewers to catch the falling knife.

        1. Mister G says:

          WOW…why does he have a job? Must be white privilege LOL

        2. jerryd says:

          Cramer came out earlier than most on the crash telling people to get their money out in time to avoid the worst drop.
          All this drop in Tesla’s stock is a buying cheap opportunity.
          And one in oil futures too. Put a Volt’s price in oil now and in 2 yrs get a Tesla 70D or a T3 for ‘free’ with money left over.

      2. Texas FFE says:

        Actually Kramer was spot on. There is a famous rant Kramer had right before the Great Ressesion telling everyone that the market was in trouble. I took Kramer’s advice and sold stock, he saved me a lot of money. You arm chair analysts can say what you like but Kramer is a professional.

        1. Josh says:

          Professional, Yes….Ethical/Trustworthy Ehh…

          1. Alpha777 says:

            Wow. Isn’t that illegal?

        2. ffbj says:

          Not exactly spot on, but he was telling people to get out prior to the absolute bottom.
          The way to get value from Cramer is to read between the lines and listen to the data he presents and not to his advice.

        3. Alpha777 says:

          Spot on, you must have memory fatigue.
          He was cheerleading the bank stocks all the way down.

        4. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Anybody claiming Jim Cramer is ethical, or one of the “good guys”, needs to watch Jon Stewart interviewing him on The Daily Show, using clips of Cramer’s own TV appearances to show him admitting that he has practiced short-selling manipulation of his own hedge fund. Stewart also gets Cramer to admit that so-called “financial analysts” collude with the super-rich to manipulate stocks for their own benefit.

          I suggest you start watching at the 5:45 time stamp:

          http://walrusvideo.com/jon-stewart-vs-jim-cramer-march-12-2009/

          Cramer is a “professional”? Yeah, he is. He’s an unindicted professional stock manipulator.

          1. Assaf says:

            +1

            It was a hilarious takedown by Jon Stewart.

            Too bad that the “serious” mainstream media had neglected to do its due diligence about those corrupt pied pipers of the financial collapse.

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              “Hilarious”?

              Maybe it’s just me, but aside from the surprisingly few (for Stewart), sparse sarcastic remarks during that segment, this was an in-depth interview, a conversation very densely filled with facts, and was one of the most shocking, illuminating, and memorable segments I’ve ever seen on The Daily Show… a show I tried to watch as often as possible until Stewart left.

              Again maybe it’s just me, but this is one of the most sobering, least hilarious segments I’ve ever seen on any interview show.

        5. DonC says:

          Funny. I ignored him (in the sense that I never pay attention to him) and bought rather than sold. Made a ton of money.

          I don’t think that makes me a genius, only someone who has little faith in their ability to time markets.

    2. evcarnut says:

      The almighty disgusting, know it all, Big mouth, Make me sick to my stomach until I puke Cramer , Couldn’t even figure this one out!

  2. Josh says:

    It is terrifying these guys are making financial recommendations to people.

    Not sure which was worse, Jim Cramer babbling about nothing or Ray Wang saying the Tesla powered Rav4 EV was selling like hot cakes.

    1. Vexar says:

      I think Statler and Waldorf from the Muppets would have been a better pair of analysts. At least they would have been funny.

  3. tftf says:

    Maybe the analysts should look at free cash-flows again…

    http://bloom.bg/1Rt3pTT

    and not the phony cash-flows Tesla prominently displays in its latest shareholder letter on page1.

    Notice the huge gap?

    And then go back to Q4 14 what the old CFO promised for 2015 vs actual results.

    Tesla keeps tangling carrots in front of gullible investors with ubrealistic guidance (it’s always next quarter or next year….).

    1. Alpha777 says:

      The market is made up of guys who can only see, and predict, this MINUTE, and can’t get past that.

      I’m guessing you didn’t buy any AMAZON stock either.
      Tesla taking share away from all lux brands, that’s more telling.
      Tesla building a GigaFactory to lower unit cost of batteries, not in your radar. And a friendly reminder, at some point that GigaFactory will be complete. Then what, you’ll be ready to buy in, but the price will be way beyond what you’ll pay.

      So, you’ll always be on the outside bitching about Tesla, “the one that got away”.

      1. tftf says:

        So how much should Tesla be worth in your opinion?

        As much as GM? BMW? More? As much as Toyota? More?

        Keep listening to the analysts and their price targets and you will be in for a awakening.

        Here’s a good article about Amazon, Tesla and analysts in investment banks:

        http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/29/opinion/joe-nocera-the-tesla-cheerleader.html?referer=&_r=1

        Read and read the Bloomberg link above, maybe it will open your eyes about some shenanigans.

        Now the same investment banks love to provide services and capital rounds for Tesla.

        Don’t bit the hand that feeds…

        1. pjwood1 says:

          Tesla’s story bears no resemblance to Henry Blodget’s. I stopped reading, there.

          You are comparing Dot.com, to what is going on in energy, environment and much more mechanical technology advancement than Blodget ever covered.

          1. tftf says:

            Alpha777 mentions Amazon.

            I provide a link discussing shenanigans in AMZN and TSLA valuations/price targets and interests of conflict (still happening 15 years after dotcom).

            1. pjwood1 says:

              I hope the speculation continues. Cramer fairly identifies it going both ways. It is a battle of narratives, just like attempting to watch objective cable news. If I linked to the Wall Street Journal completely ignoring guidance, would that be any better than the Tesla bulls?

              Read between the shenanigans. Tesla will continue to get a much better multiple, than GM, etc., even if they stabilize as a going concern. Last year, they spent. This year, “cash is king” and we watch as CFO begins contributing internal equity into capex.

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          tftf continued spouting FUD:

          “So how much should Tesla be worth in your opinion?”

          You don’t care how much Tesla Motors, the company, is worth. You only care about how much TSLA stock is worth, and how that affects your short-selling portfolio.

          Is the price of TSLA inflated? According to the consensus of analysts, yes it is. Even now that it’s dropped nearly 50% since its high, it’s still overvalued quite a bit if it’s valued like other auto makers.

          The problem is that you and other anti-Tesla trolls keep trying to convince us that the stock being overvalued means the company is in financial trouble. It’s not, by any stretch of the imagination.

          With the very low current interest rates, Tesla doesn’t need any Wall Street investments. It could thrive just fine with angel investors and, if necessary, even bank loans. Heck, it could even issue more stock. Its last stock issue resulted in the stock price going up, despite the minor (<1%) dilution!

          Now that's what I call investor confidence. I'll cry crocodile tears for all you short-sellers who are too foolish to get out of your TSLA positions now, since the stock is quite likely to rise significantly again in the near future.

          (Disclaimer: PLEASE NOTE I am not suggesting anyone invest in TSLA. It's a very volatile stock, and should not be considered a safe investment.)

    2. sven says:

      The analysis of cash flow in the first link is spot on. But one thing he neglected to mention is the huge positive affect on cash flow for 2016 that the Model 3 deposits will provide; in essence it’s an interest-free loan to Tesla.

      Here is the analysis of cash flow from the Bloomberg article in the first link:

      “A big red flag is how Tesla measures cash flow. High up in the shareholder letter released Wednesday, the company touted ‘$179 million of positive cash flow from our core operations defined as cash flow consumed in operations of $30 million plus cash of $209 million received from vehicle sales to our leasing partners’ — a definition of positive cash flow that looks as engineered as those troublesome ‘Falcon Wing’ doors on the Model X.”

      “In response to a question on Wednesday evening’s call, Tesla confirmed this figure is flattered by the cash Tesla receives under an asset-backed facility to finance some vehicle deliveries — or ‘short-term borrowing,’ as most other people might call it.”

      “In reality, Tesla actually burned through less cash — when defined as cash from operations less capital expenditure — in the fourth quarter than in the third. Which makes it odd that the company chose this quarter to stop reporting free cash flow as a separate line in the shareholder letter. Perhaps it is because, even with the slower pace, the number was still negative to the tune of $441 million.”

      “Overall, Tesla burned through $2.16 billion of cash in 2015. That is more than double 2014’s amount and, since we are on the subject of guidance, also more than double the “less than” $1 billion Tesla’s former CFO projected this time last year.”

      “Over the course of 2015, long-term debt, net of cash, virtually tripled to $1.44 billion.”

      1. Three Electrics says:

        “Overall, Tesla burned through $2.16 billion of cash in 2015.”

        While most of this is capital expense, this number is insane. I will be shocked of Tesla can continue this level of burn in 2016. It really depends on how much investment remains needed for the GF, X, and Model 3. I think there is a good chance they will raise capital again this year. The new CFO may not realize what he has gotten himself into.

        1. jerryd says:

          3Electrics the Tesla hater should know that is a cheap price for growing 61% last yr.
          And why the stock is going back up.
          And you know perfectly well why Tesla is worth so much. Growth.

          1. sven says:

            Tesla is still burning through cash even when you don’t include the cash it spent on capital expenditures to grow. Cash from operations less capital expenditures was a whopping negative $441 million.

            From the Bloomberg article:
            “In reality, Tesla actually burned through less cash — when defined as cash from operations less capital expenditure — in the fourth quarter than in the third. Which makes it odd that the company chose this quarter to stop reporting free cash flow as a separate line in the shareholder letter. Perhaps it is because, even with the slower pace, the number was still negative to the tune of $441 million.”

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      tftf asked:

      “Notice the huge gap?”

      We certainly notice the huge gap between Truth and your incessant short-selling anti-Tesla FUD.

      TSLA stock has stopped falling. Why are you wasting everyone’s time by posting here? Don’t you have some other short investment to promote, dude?

      1. tftf says:

        “FUD”

        Is that your argument?

        Follow the two links I provided, study the numbers and please come back and tell me what’s wrong.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Here is what’s fundamentally wrong in what you post, tftf:

          “Without cheap money provided by Wall Street Tssla would be gone in a few months.”

          You keep trying to drag the conversation down into the weeds, into the intricacies of accounting methods. I don’t care. What I care about is the health of the entire forest — of Tesla Motors’ future — as a whole, not the health of a few leaves on one or two trees.

          How many years now have you been predicting that Tesla is on the verge of financial collapse? Short-sellers have been predicting that since the day Tesla first issued stocks. So-called analysts have been predicting it since even before that.

          As I’ve said, this reminds me of the apocryphal tale of aeronautical engineers claiming that bees couldn’t fly, because their aeronautical equations “proved” they couldn’t. Yet the bees ignored that an kept right on flying.

          Well, Tesla keeps ignoring all your dire claims of impending demise, and keeps right on flying. It keeps right on growing, keeps right on making a large profit margin on every car it produces.

          Eventually, tftf, even the most clueless person notices that you manage to be wrong every single time in your comments on, and predictions for, the performance of Tesla Motors, the company.

    4. Alpha777 says:

      Tesla isn’t “burning thru cash”, they are catalyzing cash into assets. Those are high value assets, that will give him market dominance. His only real competitor is LG, are you shorting LG for their battery expansion in Korea and China? You’d better by, by your logic.

      He’s not transferring the funds to a private account and buying a speedboat and a casino.

  4. Mister G says:

    Jim Cramer should run for President as a Republican, he will fit right in the current Republican clown show.

    1. Alpha777 says:

      There is a CRISIS in Education in Rural America.
      Really, the education budget needs to be Tripled.

      1. Mister G says:

        Tripling won’t help rural Americans they will continue to be anti- learning and will home school their children because the government is teaching to much science, math, history that’s not in the Bible. The recent confirmation of gravitational waves will not be discussed in rural educational settings because it’s the DEVIL..LOL

    2. sven says:

      Whoever is elected president should appoint Jim Camer as Chairman of the SEC because he knows all the games hedge funds and wall street banks play in their manipulation of the market. Hopefully, he could do as good a job of reforming the market as when Joe Kennedy was appointed the SEC Chariman. Kennedy knew how the game was played on Wall Street at the time and instituted reforms that eliminated many abuses and protected shareholder interests.

      “After Franklin Roosevelt called Joe to Washington, D.C. to clean up the securities industry, somebody asked FDR why he had tapped such a crook. ‘Takes one to catch one,’ replied Roosevelt.”

      “Kennedy’s reforming work as SEC Chairman was widely praised on all sides, as investors realized the SEC was protecting their interests. His knowledge of the financial markets equipped him to identify areas requiring the attention of regulators.”

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr.

  5. manbitesgas says:

    For the love of Pete… Please, don’t ever plaster Cramer of all people on this blog. I almost puked. :oP

  6. Mister G says:

    Hey Cramer…TESLA is a transformational entity traditional wall street rules and analysis is irrelevant.

    1. Warren says:

      Yup. With gas at historic lows, a nation of climate deniers/ignorers will rush out and buy 500,000 EV’s a year….because transformative. 🙂

      1. Vexar says:

        Warren, Elon Musk also said China will be their biggest market. The US is clearly behind other nations in EV adoption, market share, etc. If you consider California to be its own country (and they often think that there), it is even more pronounced.

      2. Eric says:

        Nobody who’s interested in a Tesla Model S and having the option to also choose a $100,000 gasmobile will say “aw heck, gas is cheap today, I’ll go for the dino juice burner!”.

      3. Warren says:

        I admit I was thinking of the US market. I suppose Elon could vacuum up the global ten percenters, and conceivably sell 500K cars a year.

        I don’t think the people looking at a Tesla S would be caught dead in a “volks” car, like the Model 3 though.

        1. Alpha777 says:

          The model 3 will appeal to the top 30% minimum.

    2. tftf says:

      You do know who provided the cheap money for Tesla? Wall Street.

      And you do know how analysts conveniently push up price targets before capital rounds?

      Please read my two links (NY Times and Bloomberg above for details, hopefully it will open your eyes.

      PA: Without cheap money provided by Wall Street Tssla would be gone in a few months.

      1. ffbj says:

        Hardly.

        1. tftf says:

          Your answer is not convincing me.

          Check the chart in this article:

          http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-11/tesla-earnings-like-solarcity-but-for-cars

          Now tell me how Tesla can grow (Gigafactory, Model3 etc.) without a lot of fresh outside capital?

          I laid out all the numbers here for those interested in details:

          http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5760541-tales-from-the-future/4797146-tesla-still-evading-questions-gigafactory-model3-output-talking-elephants-building-mice

          1. Tech01x says:

            You do know that the pilot phase of the Gigafactory doesn’t have that much more Tesla investment required, right?

            That pilot phase is enough to build the initial Model 3 volumes and will start generating substantial revenue well ahead of Model 3 shipping. Right now, they are assembling Tesla Energy products there, but later this year, they will be building cells there so that cash put into the Gigafactory, about $500 million at that point, will start to generate revenue.

            The factory investments for the doubling and more of the factory is already starting to pay off and the Model X revenue will be additive this year. Plus, with the ABL and cash on hand, they likely won’t need to raise this year. Of course, there are macro risks and they might want to opportunistically raise if the climate is right if they want to grow even faster.

          2. ffbj says:

            Worthless.

          3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

            tftf promoted his own clickbait blog post:

            “I laid out all the numbers here for those interested in details:”

            [CLICKBAIT LINK DELETED]

            Moderators please take note: This is an advertisement. tftf gets paid for every click on that link.

            Does that violate InsideEVs’ terms of service for posting comments?

            1. Jay Cole says:

              Not really if it is on topic. And the disclosure that he wrote it was nice.

              We really don’t like to “fence people in” as many sites do, and we don’t get rating the “worthiness” of certain links – just isn’t enough hours in the day for that (and I don’t think people would like an unknown/unseen sliding scale)…people should feel free to post on topic links, pics, media, whatever if it adds to the conversation.

              The only thing that generally trips the ToS/auto moderation (and is super rare) is frequent links to the same place/site on multiple threads, or blatant self-promotion of a “for profit” site.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        tftf said:

        “Without cheap money provided by Wall Street Tssla would be gone in a few months.”

        Tell us again, tftf, how you never post anything that isn’t actually true.

        Good grief, just how stupid do you think InsideEVs readers are? A flatworm wouldn’t be taken in by that FUD!

        http://mlitvaitis.unh.edu/Wranglers/paulette.jpg

  7. Texas FFE says:

    Kramer has always been a Tesla basher. Just like me he likes the car, not the company. Kramer likes companies with strong financial fundamentals which Tesla is weak on. Kramer’s language has mellowed recently on Tesla, maybe because the Tesla stock has lost 50% of it’s peak value.

  8. ffbj says:

    It’s funny since he owns one. I think Cramer missed the boat on Tesla as it was running up, and that really stung. Of course he was right that it made little since for a company to skyrocket as Tesla did.
    He calls it a cult stock, and for this reason its evaluation is suspect, but remain so for a very long time.

    Cramer is not allowed to trade stocks due to his deal with government as a result of wrong doing in the past.

    The famous rant:

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      ffbj said:

      “Cramer is not allowed to trade stocks due to his deal with government as a result of wrong doing in the past.”

      May I ask what your source for that assertion is? I see nothing whatsoever in Cramer’s Wikipedia entry to suggest anything remotely like that.

      1. ffbj says:

        Sigh. It was not an assertion. Clue: Why does he always talk trading for his charitable trust? Anyway:
        http://youthfulinvestor.com/jim-cramers-stock-picks-mad-money-investing-career/

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Neither link you provided supports your assertion*. Yes, the Wiki article mentioned that the SEC issued subpoenas including one for Kramer, but… Well, here’s the full text of that:

          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
          In February 2006, an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into allegations of collusion between short-sellers and a stock research firm led to the serving of subpoenas to TheStreet, Inc. and Cramer, as well as journalists for Dow Jones and Marketwatch.com. The SEC then began to back away from the subpoenas, indicating it had no intention of enforcing them after lawyers for Dow Jones said they would not comply. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox rebuked the SEC’s staff attorneys for filing subpoenas on two Dow Jones reporters without first consulting him or the other top commissioners. Cox issued a statement saying neither he nor any of the SEC’s four other commissioners were aware of the subpoenas, which he called “highly unusual.”
          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
          [end quote]

          Seems pretty clear there was no prosecution of Cramer, nor any deal to avoid prosecution.

          Now, the article in your first link said “Cramer is not allowed to trade any stocks he talks about in the show within 5 business days of mentioning it” and “Jim officially retired from investing…”

          The first assertion looks like a CNBC rule, not any deal with the SEC or the justice system; the second looks like a personal choice, and again there’s no suggestion it wasn’t voluntary.

          *Not sure why you’re objecting to me characterizing your statement as an “assertion”. That’s not a pejorative.

          as·ser·tion
          əˈsərSH(ə)n/
          noun

          a confident and forceful statement of fact or belief.

  9. Alan says:

    I stand by my comment from a few days ago when Q4 results were released, I couldn’t imagine a better time to buy these shares, I think it was Texas FFE who was quick to point out initial 3% drop on the day but not so quick to point out the following 12% increase in stock price.

    Hang on to this stock for a longer term and you could double your money in 3-4 years IMO.

  10. kdawg says:

    Why does Jim Cramer even have a job? He is known to give false info to line his own pockets or his friend’s pockets.

    “To fully appreciate the Jim Cramer angle a little journey to his past is in order. This is from Cramer himself:

    “We had it down to a science in 1992: my wife would pick stocks that technically looked ready to go up, or she would keep track of merchandise to see what was down to tag ends. She would then generate a list of stocks that could move quickly on good news. Jeff would then go to work calling the companies to try to find anything good we could say about them. I would call the analysts to see I they were hearing anything. When we found a stock that looked ready technically to break out, or where the supply had been mopped up, and Jeff found something positive at the company, and I knew the analyst community didn’t know anything positive, we would load up with call options and common stock and then give the good news to our favorite analysts who liked the stock so they could go do their promotion. That would get the buzz going and we would then be able to liquidate the position into the buzz for a handsome profit.” (Confessions of a Street Addict, page 61).
    This is Cramer’s big secret. He figured out early that the way to make money betting on stocks was to rig the game – control the news and you control a stock’s value. Now he has his own TV show.”

    More here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/3/5/705113/-

  11. Mister G says:

    Low gas prices is one middle east invasion away from becoming high gas prices…it might happen if a Republican wins white house. 20 years from now we can debate if TESLA is transformative, my view is that it will be transformative.

    1. Warren says:

      If there is a major disruption in the middle east, nobody will be buying new EVs, or any other cars. The health of the global economy is tied to affordable energy, which is fossil fuels, like it or not.

      1. Alan says:

        And renewables will reach grid parity by 2020, like it or not !

        1. Alpha777 says:

          Renewables are already lower than grid parity in 20 US southern states.

      2. kdawg says:

        Sunlight is pretty cheap.

    2. ffbj says:

      A Republican win the Whitehouse? Now you are just being silly.

  12. Aaron says:

    Is the article title an intentional pun about Jim Cramer’s weight? (should be “weigh”)

    1. Jay Cole says:

      …et le whoops

  13. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    These financial news commentators talk like they’re handicapping a ball game!

    This ain’t a bunch of grown men playing with a ball; this is real life. This is people’s jobs, and people making decisions about what, for most people, is buying the second most expensive thing in their lives.

    Shame on these so-called “analysts” who cover the performance of real companies as though it’s some sort of competitive sport. And shame on stock analysts who cover the day-to-day rise and fall of stocks as though everybody should be a day trader, instead of a long-term investor.

    1. Heisenberght says:

      ++11

  14. Assaf says:

    Cramer malfeasance and idiocy aside, today (Friday) TSLA is pretty much where it was before the Q4 earning.
    As of 2 PM EST: $148.20
    https://www.google.com/search?q=tsla&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

  15. jmac says:

    Cramer actually knows the market and stocks pretty well. The problem is he also knows how to artificially manipulate the market for his own gain. He’s just an abrasive, fast talking hype-ster and Con Man.

    Considering all the stock manipulations he’s ‘fessed up to, I don’t see how he’s still on the air. The reason he’s still tolerated in some quarters is that the rest of the Street and the Big Banks are pretty much just like him — minus Cramer’s motormouth.