Tesla Delivery Estimate For 2015 Raised From 52,000 To 62,000 Units

3 years ago by Mark Kane 20

Tesla Motors Gallery in NorthPark, Dallas

Tesla Motors Gallery in NorthPark, Dallas

According to ValueWalk, Tesla Motors share price target is reiterated by Wedbush analyst Craig Irwin at $275 from the current $233. This is after second quarter results and delivering cumulatively roughly 40,000 Model S.

To meet this year’s goal of more than 35,000 deliveries, Tesla must deliver 21,000 in the second half of the year, as in the first two quarters Tesla delivered 14,036. Because for Q3, the plan is just for 7,800 due to a production line upgrade, last quarter sales results must reach 13,000!

13,000 times 4 is 52,000 and this is probably from where Irwin’s prediction comes from:

“Wedbush: Tesla well-positioned to deliver an aggressive volume ramp”

“Irwin raised his deliveries estimate for Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) for 2015 from 52,000 units to 62,000 units as the company benefits from its new production capacity.”

By the end of the year, Tesla should easily cross the 50,000 Model S sales mark and 100,000 in the third quarter of 2015.

Tesla Model S - Plan versus Execution

Tesla Model S – Plan versus Execution

Source: ValueWalk

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20 responses to "Tesla Delivery Estimate For 2015 Raised From 52,000 To 62,000 Units"

  1. Benz says:

    Total global Tesla Model S deliveries in 2014 will be at least 35,000 and probably a few hundred more than that.

    1. Bonaire says:

      Production, maybe. Deliveries, I cannot see turning the corner into Q4 and jumping from 8K to 13K is at all possible. Unless some Sultan has ordered 2000 for fleet import somewhere.

      Remember GM estimated 60K worldwide volt sales in 2012 ? That estimate was said late in 2010 during the Volt introduction.

      1. See Through says:

        And Volt is a mid range car, and its price was also cut by $4K. Volt has good quality reputation.

        Not sure if a Lemon can be sold to so many people at $100K.

        1. Rob Stark says:

          Volt is a mid range car that had to have a price cut in order to amplify demand to 1/3 capacity.

          Tesla is a car with better reputation that has a 4 month waiting list.

        2. Boris says:

          TSLA at $260, are you still shorting?

        3. Mint says:

          The Volt was initially grossly overpriced for the car you get, and even now it starts at $35k MSRP, is slower than most cars in its price range, and seats only 4.

          What other car forces you to make that compromise and sells well?

          The Model S is a full size performance sedan priced in line with its competition even before you account for gas savings.

          There are plenty of people buying $60k+ SUVs and sedans across the planet. Tesla will easily hit its sales targets for the S and X.

      2. Rob Stark says:

        Bonnie,

        Do you think Tesla guidance is just a flat out lie?

        They guided for 7800 deliveries for this quarter and 35k for 2014 which means they must deliver a bit over 13k to meet guidance.

        1. Mike says:

          No Tesla is not dumb enough to put out bad guidance. They will clearly beat that number.

        2. Josh says:

          It isn’t a flat out lie, they have been very accurate (if not conservative) in the past. The only time they had a miss was Q4 2012. I remember they had issues with deliveries around the holidays because of customers schedules and tax situations.

          Ramping up deliveries in Q4 again could come back to bite them for their Q4 numbers. In the grand scheme of the company it really won’t matter though.

      3. kdawg says:

        “Unless some Sultan has ordered 2000 for fleet import somewhere.”
        ————–

        Didn’t Tesla deny an order for 5000 cars to that conversion company because they said it would eat up their supply?

  2. Thomas J. Thias says:

    Mr. Kane,

    I enjoy greatly your indepth reporting on the Global Electric Fueled Vehicle Industry.

    Your Journalism is polished, tight and to the point.

    Caution is advised shen reporting equities valuation, as facts can mesh into speculation and even this must be fact heavy.

    Tesla Motors Inc.(TSLA:US) shares closed today at $261.380 as of 20:10 EST.

    Bloomberg-

    Best-

    Thomas J. Thias

    517-749-0532

    Twitter.com/AmazingChevVolt

  3. ffbj says:

    Why? It’s common knowledge and all over the place. Even Deutche Bank, which has been extremely light in it’s praise of Tesla, and one of the most recalcitrant in terms of valuing it’s stock has raised it’s price target, belatedly, to $361.00.
    Professor Plum in the living room, with the rope. Dude you need to get a clue.

    1. See Through says:

      Correction: Deutsche bank raised its target to $310, not $361.
      But no one really knows a thing. They just repeat whatever Tesla says.

      1. Rob Stark says:

        Analyst know as much about Tesla as they do any other company. What they report on their financials and what the company executives say on record and on conference calls.

        Most Wall Street analyst ridicule Elon’s Thesis about Tesla and EV adoption not parrot it.

        The professional analyst working in high finance that are actual Tesla bulls can be counted with your hands.

  4. Ryan says:

    I just don’t see how their assembly line will ever be able to crank out ~100,000 cars a year. If they could; why aren’t they?

    And Ford makes 400,000 F-150s a year?

    Look how many Mustangs were built and sold at one time:

    1965 559,451
    1966 607,568
    1967 472,121
    1968 317,404

    They also went to the moon more than a few times back around that time…

    And big cheese wants to go to mars. Going to the moon as practice would be a good start..

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      Tesla could have faster production ramp up, but the primary problem is Tesla’s subcontractors cannot deliver enough components. And most critically Panasonic cannot scale up fast enough battery production. This is the reason why Tesla is investing on own battery factory so that the supply of critical components would be on Tesla’s own hands.

    2. kdawg says:

      The same companies that set up Ford, GM, and Chrysler’s lines are setting up Tesla’s Model X line (at least in part). As they keep expanding production abilities, annual rates will increase too.

    3. Mint says:

      Congratulations on the dumbest post of the article.

  5. Alex says:

    “The professional analyst working in high finance that are actual Tesla bulls can be counted with your hands”.

    What makes you believe that Deutsche bank or Morgan Stanley would let non professional analysts speak on their behalf?

  6. leaf owner says:

    They could move 5x what they currently are overseas if they had suply.