Tesla Delivers 10,030 Model S Electric Cars In Q1 2015

2 years ago by Jay Cole 64

Tesla Model S

Tesla Reported A Record 10,030 Model S Sedans Sold In First Three Months Of 2015

Usually to know how many cars Tesla has sold in a quarter, we have to wait several weeks until the company’s next quarterly report.

Tesla To Give Quicker Sales Results Going Forward, But Only Quarterly

Tesla To Give Quicker Sales Results Going Forward, But Only Quarterly

That is no longer the case as Tesla has moved a step closer (but not all the way) to the other larger automakers in the way they report their sales.

For the first quarter Tesla reported they sold a record 10,030 cars, and issued a note saying that the quarterly sales will be now be disclosed more promptly.

The company had guided during the last quarterly report to 9,500 Model S sedans for Q1, so this should be considered a significant beat.  In Q4 of 2014 – notorious for being the strongest 3 month period for EV demand, Tesla sold 9,834 cars.

Tesla continued to warn to not put too much emphasis on the specific number.  Also of note, the number does not breakdown regionally how many cars were sold were – just worldwide figures.

Hopefully this is the first step to eventually reporting not only sales in specific countries, but monthly results as well.

Full Tesla statement below:

TESLA DELIVERS 10,030 VEHICLES IN Q1 OF 2015

FRIDAY, APRIL 3, 2015

This was a new company record for the most cars delivered in a quarter and represents a 55% increase over Q1 last year.

Going forward, Tesla will publish the number of new car deliveries within three days of quarter end. We have decided to take this approach, because inaccurate sources of information are sometimes used by others to project the number of vehicle deliveries.

There may be small changes to this delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct.

Also, this is only one measure of our financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of our quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

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64 responses to "Tesla Delivers 10,030 Model S Electric Cars In Q1 2015"

  1. Tftf says:

    Not impressive given their Q4 2014 numbers (that’s why they probably only quoted YoY sequential numbers) and all the Q4 deliveries pushed into Q1.

    1. Tftf says:

      PS: Also, the EUR and NOK currencies further moved lower against the USD in Q1 2015. I expect substantial FX losses and margin pressure in case Tesla didn’t hedge more.

      1. Tech01x says:

        As for the FX issues, remember, the Tesla Model S is 45% imported parts content. Specifically, the battery pack is denominated in yen. Commodity prices like aluminum and especially copper also dropped. So the cost of goods sold is also affected by FX. The cost of expansion of many overseas facilities has also correspondingly dropped. Finally, there were price increases in effect, so the total effect is probably not as high as some have feared.

    2. Tech01x says:

      Remember that in Q1, there’s about one less production week than Q4. That’s basically near a wash for the 1.5 weeks of delayed P85D deliveries. They probably have the same amount of production weeks of finished goods inventory as last quarter (on average is 2-3 weeks since Q4 2013).

      Tesla also focused on productivity enhancements, started the paint shop upgrade, and launched the S85D, all of which would negatively affect production rate in some way. This was not a quarter where they were looking to increase the production rate.

      1. Bonaire says:

        3400+ cars in inventory or in transit after 2014 ended. Produced 35125, sold 31655 in the year. So, lots of inventory to help sell off to get the Q1 number. Will Q2 follow Q1? We will wait and see. Q1 was awash with new D orders (Europe P85D and North America S85D).

    3. Jack Slade says:

      Nonsense. Where are all the registration records in Cal or any other state. !0,000 cars with no accidents, no visual confirmations by anyone. Go up to the plant, no cars on an assembly line.He might as well claim he out sold General Motors without a dealership or cars in stock. Go ahead turn on the cd, radio, window wipers, air conditioning and lights and get your 50 mile drive. No one could be this stupid. He is selling tax credits for millions to people who pollute, he’s not producing cars.

      1. LuStuccc says:

        ” Go up to the plant, no cars on an assembly line.”
        Did you? Your comment is a bucket full of $h!t.

        1. Big Solar says:

          No doubt about that. At least use something that sounds real if you are a fud troll. Cmon, you make see thru look good.

      2. Lensman says:

        Apparently someone suffering from TDS — Tesla Derangement Syndrome. (^_^)

      3. Nix says:

        Nate, I followed your link on your name to your Rolls-Royce Bentley car sales site.

        Troll away, Troll away, Troll away little troll.

        1. arne-nl says:

          I had the misfortune to click that link too. What a crappy site. I wonder if the cars he sells are any better…

        2. V. Bowman says:

          ROFLOL!

  2. ja says:

    Great News! Good To Hear! Maybe Now They Can Start concentrating On>>> Fast tracking The “””Model 3″””… Once The X Production Gets On Track! (((Real Soon I Hope)) I wish They Would Show Some Drawings Of the SMALLER Sized Model 3 And Give An Idea Of its Appearance. Hopefully It Wont it won’t Be a Cheap CARTOON Looking Car Like its Competers . It shouldn’t Take Much Effort To Out Do Their Mickey Mousey Designs…..
    …..

    1. Spec9 says:

      I don’t think the Model 3 will ship until the Gigafactory is up and running.

      1. Greg Hudson says:

        The Gigafactory site seems to be LaForging ahead at warp factor 5. See google images…

    2. Bret says:

      I would also like to see some renderings of the Model 3. I am very interested in getting one, when they become available.

      I seriously doubt Tesla will make a quirky looking car, especially after Elon called the i3 a “weird-mobile”.

      I also like the look of the Bolt and applaud GM for making an EV with a mainstream design. I hope Nissan will follow suit with the next generation LEAF.

      1. Speculawyer says:

        He did deny that it would look like that unofficial rendering that floated around. That’s kinda sad because I thought that render looked great. But I guess it would step on the Model S too much.

    3. Jack Slade says:

      Do you own one, take a picture of you and your tesla and email it two me at njaeger@natejaeger.com Better yet make some money and send me pictures of all the Teslas you see on the road. I offered one guy $100.00 for every tesla he could photograph on the road and after a month I didn’t have to pay a dime.

      1. See Through says:

        That’s a good one:) Yes, I do see a lot more Leafs here in California compared to Teslas, yet the insideevs numbers look the same for both Tesla and Leaf.

        1. Mint says:

          Where does InsideEVs say that?
          http://insideevs.com/cumulative-us-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-model-model-breakdown-market-share-data-december-2014/
          Cumulative Leaf sales outnumber Tesla sales 2:1 in the US.

          Of course, nobody is surprised that you’re full of sh!t yet again.

          By the way, Tesla has now had three record quarters since your declaration that their run is over.

          Keep on trolling…

        2. Big Solar says:

          JS & ST, the new wang brigade.

      2. The Woodster says:

        Jack,

        I just emailed you a photo from yesterday outside Crate & Barrel at the Stanford Shopping Center in Palo Alto. My Tesla is the middle one, and… wait for it… there is a Model S on either side of me. No, not staged. There was another one in the lot, too, about 50 feet away.

        You owe me $300. You know how to reach me.

      3. Speculawyer says:

        If you pay me a $100 for every Tesla I see on the road, I’ll be able to buy a Tesla pretty quick.

      4. Greg Hudson says:

        Man, if you were only for real. I’d already have $30k in my pocket, and I live in Melbourne Australia, where Tesaas are as scarce as kangaroos in my backyard (i.e. very rare)

    4. PhilT says:

      I totally agree. Most EVS look totally rediculous like the manufacturer really doesnt want them to sell.
      GO TELSA!
      https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1575219796057582&set=a.1392216261024604.1073741830.100007087291213&type=1&theater

  3. jmollard says:

    Well on their way to surpass 50K for 2015. If Tesla achieves double sales year over year as Elon targets, easy to see half a million sales in 2020 (100K 2016, 200K 2017, 400K 2018…). Key to this strategy, Model X outsells the S, and Model 3 outsells X. Its not hard to imagine both happening, as long as the 3 makes it to market no later than early 2018. I’m hoping to see the Model 3 first in the 2016 LA auto show.

    1. s says:

      I think that’s too optimistic. If Model X launch goes well, then, sure, I see 100k for 2016. But I don’t think we’ll see 200K sales from only Model S and Model X in 2017, and I don’t think Model 3 will sell in big numbers (or at all) in 2017.

      So I’d put 160K best case scenario for 2017 (that would require another retooling of the factory to increase the end-of-this-year planned capacity of 125K/year).

      In 2018 we should get a big ramp up from Model 3, but still it will be hard to hit 100K in the first year of production. So I’d put 2018 at 220K.

      From then on, it’s possible to get double digit % improvements for the next two years, which should bring them in the 400K range for 2020. It will be a tremendous achievement if they exit 2020 at a 500K/year run rate (but not necessarily deliver 500K cars in 2020).

      1. LuStuccc says:

        Elon is used to perform tremendous achievements 😉

    2. Mint says:

      He’s not targeting doubled sales each year.

      He estimates 50% growth per year (although 2015 will be a little more).

  4. Breezy says:

    I’m impressed. I really thought they would miss. Things didn’t look good at the end of February so they must have had a big March.

    1. Jay Cole says:

      We noted this in our March EV sales recap (before this announcement) for the US (linkie), that last month was really the “perfect storm” for Tesla.

      From the report:
      “Cumulatively, Tesla looks to have easily delivered more than 5,000 cars worldwide in March – which would be one of their best (if not the best) result to date.”

      Not only did the 85D launch in late February (meaning huge deliveries in the US for March), but all those P85Ds that the company starting building just after Christmas and into January in California for Norway and Europe also started to get delivered in late February and throughout January (~6-10 week lag time depending if they need “re-assembly” to skirt EU tax regs). Asia also had a rebound of sorts, north of ~700 units for March.

      1. Londo Bell says:

        @JC,

        “Asia also had a rebound of sorts, north of ~700 units for March.”

        IMHO, that actually isn’t good news at all (for the Asia part). Sure, compare to previous quarters, that’s an increase, but Asia is NOT a country. Isn’t it so that Tesla is being sold in Japan, Korea(?), and China (and Hong Kong SAR)? 700 in a quarter is like a drop in the ocean!

        1. Jay Cole says:

          Numbers out of Asia are a little tricky/laggy to acquire…so that is way it is still a bit vague.

          Forecasting Japan, HK, etc. is really an exercise in futility – so we just wait on data. In theory, it ‘could’ be as high as 1,000 units, but that is just a WAG on our part (which we don’t like to publish, lol) – the base is 700 units.

      2. LuStuccc says:

        Hello Jay, you didn’t correct the score card by putting Tesla at the top as you said you would do.

        1. Jay Cole says:

          We did, refresh your browser, (=

          …there is even a new piece out highlighting the fact Tesla has taken over the top spot…but I’m afraid the Fiat 500e is going to be the ‘showstopper’ part of the monthly EV story in March.

          1. LuStuccc says:

            Thanks!

  5. GeorgeS says:

    Looks like IEV’s reported just shy of 5000 sales for Q1 in the US. I wonder if they are still sticking to those numbers. Only 45% of sales come from the US??

    1. Bonaire says:

      Is IEV North America only? That would be the 5000 or so for the USA, perhaps. Europe is over 3000, China maybe 1250, Hong Kong and Australia more, some in Japan, etc.

      1. Jay Cole says:

        Yes for sure sticking to those numbers – this report actually pretty great news for our estimates I think, as it is pretty much bang on to expectations from ground info we have been compiling.

        As we mentioned in our plug-in scorecard (which was released before Tesla’s update), we knew from the data that Tesla put together a pretty big beat in March.

        Going into March we had Tesla’s international (ex-NA) registrations at ~2,700 units. Since then we have data points already from Norway (1,140), Asia (700-1,000), Sweden (98). So with still a dozen other small reports to come in, you are looking at a strong 9,500ish already accounted for.

        As always there could be some adjustments when/if Tesla breaks out US sales percentages, but it appears they would be very minimal. +/- 200 units maybe?

    2. Lensman says:

      GeorgeS asked:

      “Only 45% of sales come from the US??”

      Actually, 45% going to North American owners is a greater portion than Tesla’s guidance a year or so ago. They predicted higher sales, and a greater percentage, in China.

  6. eco Logical says:

    Go Tesla! Getting close to 1,000 cars per week. I can’t wait until the Model 3 and a million cars per year in a ‘few’ years.

  7. CDAVIS says:

    How does Tesla account for CPO delivered units in their reported #s? Or is Tesla not yet doing CPO?

    For a regular franchise dealer the margin on a sold/delivered CPO unit is generally higher than a sold/delivered New unit. Being that Tesla is both the manafaturer & dealership/retailer, it would be interesting to know if that also holds true for Tesla. The CPO sold/delivered #s could be as meaningful to Tesla as New units.

    1. Spec9 says:

      I wish those people put those used Tesla cars on the private used market instead of turning them back to Tesla. But I can’t blame Tesla for getting into the CPO game.

    2. Josh says:

      There was one account on the forum of someone purchasing a CPO Tesla. Hope to hear more about it soon.

      Tesla definitely isn’t pushing it right now.

    3. Lensman says:

      CDAVIS asked:

      “How does Tesla account for CPO delivered units in their reported #s? Or is Tesla not yet doing CPO?”

      Surely the quarterly sales numbers reported by -every- auto maker, including Tesla, are only for new cars. Surely they do not include sales numbers for used, or CPO (Certified Previously Owned), cars?

      Tesla has not officially debuted their CPO program yet. As Josh noted, there was one report online of someone buying one at a Tesla CPO showroom, prior to official opening.

  8. GeorgeS says:

    In retrospect these numbers don’t seem that fantastic. That averages out to 3333/mo. Shoot Nissan alone in the US sells around 2000/mo.

    1. EVer says:

      Leaf costs nowhere near the cost of a Model S

    2. Josh says:

      Tesla outsold LEAF in the US for Q1, that seems impressive to me. When you consider one is a $199 / mo lease and the other is an $1,199 / mo lease.

      1. Ocean Railroader says:

        A leaf though is far more limited in what it could do compared to a Tesla Model S. A example is you would most likely see a Tesla Model S in Culpeper Virginia then a Nissan Leaf. The reason for this is a Tesla can drive into the town from Washington DC or Richmond VA and not have to worry about running out of battery power. And don’t even think about taking a Nissan leaf to Luray Caverns Virginia.

    3. koz says:

      For real? How many models of any propulsion that start at $70k with average sales price around $100k sell north of 40k/yr (actually supposed to be 50k this year)?

  9. Spec9 says:

    Tesla punked their trolls.

    1. Londo Bell says:

      Don’t be so sure, Spec9.

      I kind of agree with GeorgeS and Tftf above.

      Yeah, the number looks great, especially compared to YoY. But that may be where the good news ends.

      What was the condition like a year ago (and was that before the factory expansion)?

      Tesla’s forecast was 9500 in Q1, and 1400 slipped into Q1 from Q4 prior.

      If the 9500 number is the combined, then that’s an increase of 800 units. Good. But that’s an increase of about 8%+ despite new model launch.

      If the number is NOT combined (meaning Tesla expects 10900 units), then it’s actually below the forecast by 600 units.

      Moreover, the 55000 targets were based on Model X and Asia’s strength (over 50% of sales). The latter is hitting a huge roadblock. With no actually sales date of Model X (which should be just less and 3 months away), I have doubts if this is still true, especially since not a word is mentioned.

      I hate fuzzy accounting 🙁

      1. Londo Bell says:

        Oops, it’s 10030, not 10300. Still in morning mode.

        So correction – if 9500 is the combined number, than a 5.6% increase with new model launch.

        Otherwise, missed by 870 units.

        1. Michael says:

          Are you being serious?

          1) They announced the delayed shipments and the goal for Q1 at the same time, obviously it included it.

          2) You expected a bigger beat with the launch (late in teh quarter) of a new model? You do know they knew about the launch when they put the prediction out there yes? It’s not related….saying what % they beat by while referncing the new launch makes no sense.

      2. Mint says:

        Tesla was pretty clear that their 9500 target was total, including deliveries spilled over from Q4, but I was still worried that they’d miss in Q1.

        I think 10,030 is good news.

      3. Speculawyer says:

        I’m not saying it is a great number. But there have been all sorts of troll reports about Tesla sales were crashing and whether Tesla was obfuscating. With this press release and the favorable YoY comparison, they clamped down on all those inaccurate rumors and speculation.

        1. Lensman says:

          So, the perennial Tesla bashers have retreated from claiming every month that Tesla is hiding the actual numbers for Tesla sales, which according to their FUD were falling off a cliff… They’ve retreated to now claiming that Tesla’s guidance for sales is higher than it actually is, so they can claim “lower than expected” sales!

          Well, I suppose that’s “progress” of a sort, in that it’s not quite as absurd and not quite as negative…

          ::rolling eyes::

  10. przemo_li says:

    The big question is as usuall:

    Could Tesla sold even another car more?

    Aren’t they supply (production) constrained still?

    If so, what is Tesla doing to ramp up that supply/production?

    Also who in their right mind would start comparing BMW i8 sales with some city hatchback ??? S vs Leaf is crazy! Those cars DO NOT compete for customers. People will either dream about S and go for Leaf or will buy S.

    1. Lensman says:

      Is Tesla still supply constrained? Yes, battery supply is very likely still a limitation to production. But there must be -some- limit to demand.

      Can Tesla really sell, for example, twice as many Model S’s as they are now? Tesla has already outsold every other luxury sedan in the North American market, in some months. I am skeptical that they can sell twice as many per year. Of course, the addition of the Model X will certainly increase demand, and given the popularity of CUVs/SUVs in the USA, it wouldn’t surprise me if the combined demand for the “S” and “X” was more than twice that for the “S” alone.

      But for sales to -really- take off; for sales in numbers to rival those of even one of the most popular gas guzzler models — for any single model top out at about 450,000 per year for worldwide sales — I think we’ll have to wait for the Model ≡, and probably not during the first couple of years of production.

      GO TESLA!!

  11. daniel says:

    Don’t compare Tesla model S to the leaf. It’s unfair to both. Instead compare model S to Mercedes S class.

  12. Ocean Railroader says:

    I was talking to a local gas station attendant and he said this one local gas station had 5000 cars come though it a day to buy gas.

    What the Tesla stats here are telling me is that basically Tesla sold enough cars to offset the gas used at two major gas stations.

    This also tells me that if were going to have 5000 Teslas come though a super charger a day the super charger would have to have 40 to 50 stalls to handle the demand from 5000 Teslas stopping in it vs one major gas station. Or Tesla could have four 16 stall super chargers in a town or in 20 mile spacings along the Interstates to offset the gas demand of my local gas station.

    1. Nix says:

      By far the majority of the gas demand at your local gas station will be offset by folks charging at home.

      In some future day, we might need enough chargers for 5000 Tesla’s in a day at one location. But remember that Tesla keeps increasing how fast the Superchargers charge. They started at 90 kW, and are now at 135 kW already. As chargers get faster, fewer will be needed.

    2. Lensman says:

      Are the sales of Tesla cars tiny compared to the total number of gas guzzler sales? Absolutely, yes. Let’s remember that Tesla makes exactly -one- model of car, hopefully to be two later this year; large auto makers make dozens of models of cars and light trucks.

      But your numbers are quite skewed:

      1. Gas guzzlers don’t get a refill every day; the average is about once a week. So your numbers for gas guzzlers are about 7 times too large.

      2. 5000 customers per day isn’t an average for a gas station; it’s more like 1100 [source 1]. Sure, an especially large, especially busy station may serve 5000 a day, but that’s an outlier, not the norm.

      Re Tesla’s Supercharger network: Remember that (as of about a year ago) only about 5.5% of miles driven by Tesla Model S’s are powered by Superchargers [source 2]; most charging is mainly slow charging at home (or work).

      That said, the average charge time for PEVs does need to come down, but for the convenience of EV drivers, and to offer better competition with gas guzzlers. And not because it would take an insane number of fast charge stations to handle all future PEVs. (What one generation thinks is “insane” is considered normal by the next.)

      Fortunately, charge time has already come down significantly for newer EVs, and competition will certainly continue to drive it down to about 10 minutes, or perhaps slightly less. Tesla’s Chief Tech Officer said they want to get down to 5-10 minutes.

      Source 1:
      http://www.nacsonline.com/Research/FactSheets/ScopeofIndustry/Pages/Convenience.aspx

      Source 2:
      http://insideevs.com/5-model-s-miles-supercharged-miles/