Tesla Deliveries Cross 200,000 All-Time; 25,000 In Q1 Shows Healthy Growth

5 months ago by Mark Kane 47

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (quarterly) – March 2017 (InsideEVs estimations)

A recent record of quarterly deliveries set by Tesla Motors in Q1, at over 25,000 Model S and Model X vehicles, was a pretty strong achievement when put in the proper context.

Tesla Model S and Model X key fobs

Especially given that the first 3 months of a new year are the most harsh in which to sell EVs – both for the weather, and for the fact the $7,500 US Federal EV credit (where most Tesla sales are made) are sensitive to the calendar tax year.

In respect to the US tax credit realities, Tesla is even more sensitive than the others, as the highest rate of purchasing (over leasing) can be found on Tesla products.

So the Q1 result is one that encourages the notion that more than 100,000 of Tesla’s more premium EV offerings (ex-Model 3) are possible over a full year.  We realized just how high the Q1 25,000 level is in context when drew it on the graph above. It’s 69% of growth.

Combining official numbers with IEVs estimations of U.S. deliveries (about 10,400) we recognize that the international market hit its own record with ~14,500 vehicles sold last quarter; driven mostly by resurgent deliveries to China of late, and the start of RHD Model X vehicles in Q1.

The difference of more than 4,000 cars sold outside U.S. is also the highest ever.

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (quarterly) – March 2017 (InsideEVs estimations)

In total, Tesla has delivered by the end of March more than 208,000 Model S (>171,000) and Model X (>37,000) plug-ins…with just over 120,000 of them in the US for those of you wondering about the future Model 3’s eligibility for the $7,500 credit (that starts to wind-down during the second full quarter following that mark being hit)

The 250,000 mark will likely be reached in mid-Summer.

Tesla Model S/X Deliveries (cumulative, data points by quarter) – March 2017 (InsideEVs estimations)

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47 responses to "Tesla Deliveries Cross 200,000 All-Time; 25,000 In Q1 Shows Healthy Growth"

  1. Gazz says:

    200,000!Dose this mean that the $7,500 federal tax credit will start to come to an end?

    1. Vexar says:

      It would be good to track that… A lot of Model III owners are keen on that tax break (remember, you need to pay that in Federal taxes to get it back). Gazz, don’t forget that there’s a phase-out period as well. Although with the current administration laying waste to the EPA, I don’t know if that will stick around.

      1. SJC says:

        I told everyone about the tax credits.

    2. jelloslug says:

      No, it’s 200,000 in global sales. The US tax credit only counts US sales.

    3. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

      That’s deliveries worldwide.
      Based on the scorecard Tesla’s somewhere between 120k and 122k US sales at this point.

    4. Rich says:

      Total Tesla USA sales ending March 2017 = 121,486

      This is based on the data from IEVs scorecard.

      1. GeorgeS says:

        Thx rich,
        Thats what i was looking for. So we hit the rebate limit in 2-3 qtr. Without counting m3. Yes?

        1. Rich says:

          I’ve been working on a spreadsheet to try figure this out. Basically, there’s several variables that I don’t have enough info for.

          -Can Tesla maintain the 169% growth rate from last year’s numbers
          -Will Model 3 deliveries reduce S & X sales in the second half of the year
          -What is the ramp rate of the Model 3
          -What’s the US vs abroad ratio. Tesla’s sales just had a decent shift in ratio of US vs abroad. It went from 60% US / 40% aboard to ~40% US / ~60% abroad. Will this trend continue or was this an anomaly.

          Basically, there’s not enough data to get an accurate picture. My WAG (Wild Ass Guess) at this point is Tesla will hit 200K USA sales sometime between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.

          I’m also working on projecting which States will receive the Model 3 in time to qualify for the full tax credit vs 50% credit. There’s a ton of variables in this.

          What’s the projected Model 3 reservation count per State (I’m using model3tracker.info for State sample size)
          What’s the delivery order by State
          What’s the total reservation count
          What’s the US portion of the reservation count
          What’s the reservation conversion to sales percent. This will probably vary by State and morph the longer this goes into 2018.
          What’s the Model 3 production ramp rate

          I’m geeking out. 🙂

          If you see any factors I should be thinking about and haven’t listed above, please let me know.

          1. Rich says:

            *Sigh* just though of another complication on the State delivery formula. AWD delayed shipments. How many people by State are willing to wait for AWD and when will AWD start shipping and at what rate. The numbers of people willing to settle with RWD will most likely be State specific.

            1. Jay Cole says:

              A known (and huge factor) to consider. US demand from reservations will not be completely fulfilled before international sales. Priority sequencing:

              “Relatively highly optioned versions of the car”
              –>California–>Central US–>Eastern US/Canada–>Europe–>APAC–>RHD

              AWD integration to phase one rollout

              Lesser/Entry Model 3
              –>California–>Central US–>Eastern US/Canada–> Europe–>APAC–>RHD

              —————–
              —————–
              As an example of this in action. If of the 373k+ reservations:

              – of those, 250k follow through with actually purchasing ultimately,
              – of those, 130k of them are the US,
              – of those, 35-40k want a premium 47k+ Model 3

              Then a similar ~35k would then be filled thereafter outside the US before Tesla doubles back with the promised ~35k edition.

              Put another way, you could be reservation #1 and want a $35k copy…but if I ordered a Model 3 today in Hong Kong, and will take whatever Tesla first offers, then I’m going to get my Model 3 before you. The priority sequencing is based first on the model 3 variant being offered, and then by region.

              So you have two real factors in trying to peg the 200k mark.

              A) when actual volume deliveries start to the US public
              B) initial US-based demand for the premium Model 3 offerings

              With that said if you put the date of sale 200K in Q1 2018, then the margin of error is guaranteed at only one quarter (it won’t be Q3 2017, and it wont be Q3 2018 regardless due to the Model S/X and what we know of early Model 3 production numbers already stated by Tesla/Musk).

              So, considering the two factors one has to attempt to pin down at this point to competently to nail it down to the specific quarter, it’s a fool’s errand…as both are complete wildcards.

              1. Rich says:

                Thanks for the insight. If you had to take a guess, would you say 3 waves?
                1) Highly optioned RWD
                2) AWD
                3) base model

                1. Jay Cole says:

                  I don’t think there is any guessing here at all. While it hasn’t all been laid out in one sentence, in one conference call or press release, it has been laid out over time. Its more like a 1+1=2 scenario.

                  We know for sure it will be “relatively highly optioned versions of the car” first, and we know Musk expects the AWD option to be added by year’s end….and there is no way demand is fulfilled by Christmas worldwide to see “el cheapo” arrive, so the first/premium run would still be mid-stream.

                  It seems fairly clear it will be the pricey optioned RWD first to the US, then AWD added as an another available pricey option as part of that offering (as soon as Tesla is competently building volume, and tools for AWD), then “el cheapo” to follow.

                  So (IMO), just two waves through the reservation list, three is too complicated/unnecessary.. As new trims are added/dropped/tweaked after the reservation list is tapped, then you would see that same sort of regional roll-out again (as we have seen several times with the Model S/X new variants over the past few years).

                2. Rich says:

                  🙂 Jay, you can ignore my last reply to you … or delete it. 🙂

                  1. Jay Cole says:

                    Too late. Already replied, (=

            2. Nix says:

              Rich, over on Model3tracker, they have this data-point about the shift from AWD to RWD:

              “Config Intent Change: All Wheel Drive (AWD) to Rear Wheel Drive (RWD) 19 in past day, 42 week, 84 month and 86 quarter”

              So there definitely is a shift from AWD to RWD, although it is hard to quantify based on just this information.

              _________________

              I think you are on the right track on the variables. To complicate things further, there are other factors. Like:

              What new foreign markets does Tesla open up?

              What happens with foreign gov’t and US state incentives that might affect sales?

              How many of the estimated 10K-13K priority Tesla and SpaceX employees will finalize their orders in the first months?

              etc..

              I fear you may have taken on a Sisyphean task in trying to control for all the possible variables.

    5. The current headline of 200,000 vehicles is the total number made and delivered (208,000), but as the article explained, Just over 120,000 is the current number for the USA!

    6. LOL says:

      Time for Tesla to change the original plan – roll out 20k stripped down 215 miles Model 1 for poorer countries. As in such countries public mindshare cannot forgo public charging places, find a partner willing to bring up power tower in the very city centers. Once power towers start popping up the adoption rate of EVs will easily jump to 25-30% of the overall market, almost overnight. The one and only purpose of the plan is to be altered. Gentlemen, hands on.

  2. Dave86 says:

    Market cap on Tesla is now the same or exceeds both Ford and GM. Of course we can always debate how inflated Tesla’s stock is…

    But how how does Ford and GM respond to increase the value of their investors’ shares? Try to sell more big truck and SUVs, or finally get it together, and actually get serious about going electric?

    Where’s that cross country, supercharger network for the new Chevy Bolt?

  3. Ron M says:

    Tesla has the beautiful solar roof, and storage batteries that GM and Ford don’t have. Also Tesla is the clear leader in autonomous car technology. The car manufacturing facility will be able to produce cars at a run rate of three times what GM and Ford can.

    1. dathomir says:

      “Also Tesla is the clear leader in autonomous car technology.”

      FYI – https://www.navigantresearch.com/research/navigant-research-leaderboard-report-automated-driving

      1. Get Real says:

        Navigant “Research” is a pay to play con job.

        Their BS reports on battery prices for years have been wildly pessimistic.

        Since Tesla didn’t pay for their report and big auto did the results are a predictable slam on Tesla.

        Also, Navigant’s lead researcher used to be a Ford employee.

        1. philip d says:

          Did you see their leaderboard “report” on autonomous driving? Ridiculous. There’s one company conspicuously missing in the top 10.

          1. Ford
          2. GM
          3. Renault-Nissan Alliance
          4. Daimler
          5. Volkswagen Group
          6. BMW
          7. Waymo
          7. Volvo/Autoliv/Zenuity
          9. Delphi
          10. Hyundai Motor Group

          Comical
          https://www.navigantresearch.com/research/navigant-research-leaderboard-report-automated-driving

          1. philip d says:

            Ha. Never mind. Just repeated dathomir’s post.

          2. Anonymous says:

            Yeah, that list seems…questionable. Ford just spend a billion dollars buying an autonomous car startup in Pittsburgh. That seems like an odd move if they already have a strong internal program.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Navigant actually said something about the EV market that’s true?

        Well, even a broken (analog) clock is right twice a day.

  4. Emc2 says:

    Accounting for about 2,450 Tesla Rodasters and some change in Model S sales not reported above, Tesla has sold over 211,000 electric cars since 2008.

    This figures makes it the world’s second largest all-electric car manufacturer after the Renaul-Nissan Alliance, which reported cum sales of 350,000 units by 3Q 2016, or over 400,000 by the end of 2016 when Mitsu I-MiEVs are accounted for.

    1. Steve says:

      Is the Mitsubishi car part of that alliance?

  5. TM says:

    The last graph shouldn’t have the word Quarterly in the title. It is cumulative, period

  6. Seuthès says:

    One of the funiest thing, is that with le BONUS/MALUS system in France, owners of ICE paid a part of the BEV for BEV owners.
    It’s like Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Peugeot, … give money to help Tesla.

    1. Mikael says:

      The same goes for Norway, where ICEs pay for BEV incentives.

      More countries should do this, it is so easy and doesn’t cost a thing.

  7. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

    If the US gooberment were really wanting to keep the push for EV adoption, they would get rid of the 200K cap and let all manufacturers go full on in production.

    Anyone know why there’s even a cap?
    I know there isn’t a cap for petrol subsidies……lol

    1. jelloslug says:

      The idea was to help spur early adoption.

      1. Big Solar says:

        so whats the idea with oil subsidies?

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Oil subsidies are not an “idea”, they’re a reflection of how corrupt the U.S. Congress is, and how much influence Big Oil money and lobbyists have there.

          1. Anon says:

            It also keeps you from paying $9.00 or more for a gallon of gasoline, like many other parts of the world currently do…

            Countries with the lowest oil subsidies, typically pay the highest prices at the pump, like: Norway (highest), Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, etc.

            But if you’re transitioning over to sustainable electric power, dropping oil subsidies would certainly help the US market move faster in that direction. Maybe that’s why Elon has repeatedly asked for a level playing-field of NO SUBSIDIES for Oil or Electric– knowing Electric would win over Oil on true cost alone.

    2. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

      The idea is that at the 200k point it shouldn’t need volume help.

      200k x manufacturer_count is a lot of PEVs.

  8. Bul_gar says:

    Tesla plans to produce 80000 Model 3’s in 2017. If they are all for US, Tesla’s there will be 200000 before end of the year.

    1. (⌐■_■) Trollnonymous says:

      You would think there would be a “Reward” for the first company to hit that mark…….but nooooo…….they get feathered off and oil subsidies stay in place.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Yup. The motive for the subsidies was good, but the implementation was bungled. Either the result wasn’t well thought out, or else there was a bad compromise. This is a result of “Design by committee”.

  9. Wade says:

    Tesla cumulative sales in the US total approximately 122k units to date. If they are smart, they won’t sell more than 77k units in the US this year

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Jay Cole has had some interesting things to say about what Tesla’s strategy will likely be with respect to stretching out the subsidies as much as possible. Unfortunately, most of his comments have been in comments to articles, rather than being given an article of their own.

      We can certainly expect Tesla to “game the system” by shipping more cars overseas this year if they are in danger of exceeding the cumulative 200k limit of U.S. sales.

      But let’s keep in mind that InsideEVs’ “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard” covers both U.S. and Canadian sales… and maybe a handful from Mexico, too. Canadian sales of Teslae are, what, about 10% of U.S. sales? Or maybe a bit less?

      1. Jay Cole says:

        Actually, the scorecard is US only for all the models currently.

        Previously in some very, very isolated occasions – such as when the Model X was first out and the volume was very low, it was near impossible to competently split out the domestic delivery estimates between Canada and the US in a timely fashion (registration data is available in Canada…but its really slow, which made the real-time reporting we do impossible). The number wasn’t huge, so we merely reported the combined result, and put out a disclaimer on the X for that time.

        Been awhile on anything like that now though, all the numbers you see here in March 2017, for the full year, and last couple quarters is 100% US reflected. And anytime there is a potential hiccup on the data, we always make a clear note/disclaimer on it.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Oops! Mea culpa. 😳

          Thank you for the correction, Jay, and my apologies to everyone for the bad info.

          I see now that the latest “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard” clearly says “Every month InsideEVs tracks all the plug-in sales for the United States by auto maker and brand.”

          Perhaps the “Scorecard” used to sum up North American sales, but no longer.

          I also made an error by suggesting Mexican sales are only “a handful” of Teslae. I should have fact-checked that before posting; Tesla has at least one store in Mexico, so presumably has more than just a few sales there.

  10. ffbj says:

    Tesla motor tear-down and coolant flow discussion..and other topics:

  11. Bob Nan says:

    Great achievement. Seems Tesla is following Leaf for the 300,000 mark soon.

  12. Al says:

    That’s great, but chart also shows that North America sales peaked in Qtr 3 2016. If that means that NA demand is saturated, global sales will follow similar trend?

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