Strong Projected EV Sales For 2012

5 years ago by Mike Buchanan 4

Estimated EV sales 3x higher than total sales for 2011

According to thestreet.com, they are estimating total 2012 EV sales should be around 62,400 units. Compared to just under 18,000 purchased in 2011, almost three times more EVs should be sold this year. Although some automakers just barely made the list since their units are debuting either this quarter or closer to the end of the year, The Street has some great forecasting for enthusiasts.

 

Chevy Volt is estimated to be the top seller for 2012

The strongest EV sales for the first half of the year, and projected into the second half, is Chevrolet. Over 8,800 Volts were bought in the first six months of this year even though it was a slow start due to the bad press with the electrical fire on the crashed unit and because California did not approve the EV for the HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lane until March. Currently, Chevy is offering up to $2500 incentives for 2012 models as the upgraded 2013 model is starting to hit showroom floors. Estimated to sell at least, 20,000 units this year, The Street says Chevy can easily sell 2,000 Volts per month in today’s marketplace.

 

Coming in second to the Volt is the Nissan LEAF. In 2011, the LEAF set the trend as the EV to purchase and sold just under 10,000 units. To date, Nissan has barely sold 3,100 cars. The Street is saying that knowledgeable consumers are waiting to purchase the improved 2013 model and should be able to sell a conservative 15,000 vehicles. If the marketplace becomes stronger, expect around 20,000 to be sold.

 

At almost 1,500 sold, the Prius Plug-In’s  make Toyota third on this list. As the EV wave spreads across the country, The Street estimates that Toyota should be able to sell at least 12,000 Prius Plug-In’s this year. To help further the capability of Toyota EV’s, the co-developed RAV4 EV with Tesla Motors has just started production. According to The Street, around 2,600 units will be manufactured over the next two and a half years, however they estimate all will be purchased by the end of this year.

 

New 2013 Ford Fusion should be a strong seller for Ford in all trims and power plant options

Ford lands fourth on the list with a sale estimate of just under 1,000 units. Currently, the only EV on the market Ford offers is the Focus and with steep competition from the LEAF, Ford has not had much luck. Toward the end of the year, Ford is set to release the C-Max Energi and The Street estimates sale to be a few thousand. 2013 should be a big year in EV sales for Ford because they are due to release the newly designed Fusion Energi, but outcome is stringent on the final price of the vehicle.

 

Tesla finishes up the top five on this list. With the excellent cult following of the latest models and marketing Elon Musk has done, The Street feels confident Tesla will sell around 5,000 units this year. In 2013, as production and demand ramp up, Tesla should be capable of selling around 2o,000 units according to Musk.

 

Honda and Fisker are toward the bottom of the estimates for units sold this year mainly due to low volume. For Honda, the EV Fit is currently in production and can be leased for only $389 a month. Fisker on the other hand, is clearly on its way to sell around 1,000 of these luxury EVs.

The beautiful Fisker Karma

 

With few cars on the market, BMW, Mitsubishi, and Coda all have an estimate of just 1,000 EVs sold by years end. Although BMW has leased 700 1-series EVs, the i3 will not be ready until late 2013. Mitsubishi offering is slightly padded, but if demand is there, they should be able to hit the mark.

 

Based on this article from The Street, 2012 should be a decent year for the EV even though the current state of our economy is still in recovery mode. By 2014, they also believe every manufacture will have a dedicated plug-in EV offered to the consumer, the current providers will already be a step ahead.

 

Do you guys feel these estimates are realistic of slightly skewed?

4 responses to "Strong Projected EV Sales For 2012"

  1. Mark H says:

    To site Elon Musk and Jay Cole:
    Elon Musk of Tesla Motors predicts EVs on the road will equal other autos by mid century. That is aggressive since the auto industry predicts 10 percent over a similar time period. When it comes to long term vision, I am betting on Musk.

    But as for current predictions and forecasts, Jay Cole wrote brilliantly, the predictions do not matter so much toward the success of the industry. It is here and regardless of the speed of production, it is not going away.

    Great reporting Mike. Keep it coming!

    1. Rick says:

      Agree with you 100%

      Not as concerned about the numbers, but as long as they keep building them & more each year that is pretty decent

  2. It’s confusing when they mix the sales numbers of EVs and plug-in hybrids and label them all as EVs. The Prius plug-in with its 13-mile range is not an EV in my book.

  3. delta says:

    The sales numbers show that EV’s are following the exponential growth pattern. At this rate we should see 1 million EV on the roads in US by 2016 and 1 million EV’s sold per year by 2018.