Speculative Options & Pricing For Tesla Model 3 – Video

8 months ago by Eric Loveday 72

This video is quickly “making the rounds” on the Internet and social media and the general consensus seems to be that it’s rather accurate in predicting pricing for the Tesla Model 3.

Speculative Options & Pricing For Tesla Model 3

Speculative Options & Pricing For Tesla Model 3

Now, we should note that the information within the video is purely speculative, as Tesla has made no mention of Model 3 pricing beyond the base price of $35,000, but if you examine options and pricing for existing Tesla vehicles, then perhaps the approach shown in the video has some degree of accuracy.

Video description:

“Let’s look at options and pricing for the Model 3.”

Nobody expects a well optioned 3 to be even close to $35,000, but is $75,000 out of line?

We believe that the average selling price for a Model 3 will end up being approximately $50,000, but others seem to think a higher figure is more likely.

What’s your take? What do you think the average selling price for a Model 3 will be? What will the price be if all the option boxes are marked? Leave us your thoughts in Comments below.

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72 responses to "Speculative Options & Pricing For Tesla Model 3 – Video"

  1. Anon says:

    I like his T-Shirt. 🙂

    Seems pretty reasonable. But I expect M III options to be about 20% lower over the current S & X prices, instead of the 25% posited here.

    We shall see. And like, hopefully soon! This wait is K I L L I N G M E E E EEEeeeeee.

    1. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sven says:

      You should buy/lease a Chevy Bolt to tide you over until you can finally get a Tesla Model 3 in 201?.

      1. John says:

        Don’t you mean 202?
        ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  2. Seems fairly accurate to me. I might guess that Model 3 features will cost 65% of what they do on the Model S/X. But $75K for a fully-fully loaded Model 3 sounds like a good guess to me.

  3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “We believe that the average selling price for a Model 3 will end up being approximately $50,000, but others seem to think a higher figure is more likely.”

    Elon Musk estimated the average price at $42,000. Is there any rational reason to believe someone who’s not a Tesla insider would have a better estimate?

    Is it rational to believe Elon would be lowballing the figure? That’s not a rhetorical question. Is that something that auto maker spokesmen often do?

    1. przemo_li says:

      I think Tesla would like to position Model 3 as BMW 3 competitor.

      What is price range of BMW 3?

      Also people who claim figures bigger then 50k are idiots. There is no way that car that starts at 35k and will sell in hundreds of thousands of units per year to skyrocket there. Tinny, tinny, tinny, minority of human population is rich. Others will stick to Tesla 3 at 30’s or 40’s price brackets.

      Average will stay near or below 50k.

      1. Aaron says:

        If you think about BMW’s 3 series, which the Model 3 is intended to compete with, there is a huge range of prices. Everything from the base BMW sport all the way to the BMW M3. I expect the same thing with the Model 3.

      2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        przemo_li said:

        “There is no way that car that starts at 35k and will sell in hundreds of thousands of units per year to skyrocket there.”

        That’s my opinion, too. I see the claims here of skyrocketing costs as the same sort of thinking that lead all too many people to say the Model ≡ was basically going to be a 20% smaller version of the Model S.

        That was never a realistic scenario. Similarly, IMHO the idea that you can take the options for the MS and reduce the price by 25% for an estimate here is just as wrong, just as unrealistic.

        Tesla Motors has been very consistent in stating that the base price for the M≡ will be $35,000 (before incentives). Of course, that “base model” will be a stripped down version which almost nobody will buy. But if Elon says the average selling price will be $42,000, then I see no reason to prefer the guess of some outsider, because that’s all it is: a guess.

        The point here is that the Model ≡ is intended to be a significantly less expensive car than the Model S. Not merely slightly less expensive, but significantly less expensive. It’s aimed at a lower market segment, with the potential for far higher sales. If the average price comes in at $50,000 or more, then the M≡ will not sell as well as Tesla hopes, and the model will be a failure and a money-loser. The per-unit cost of cars made in large numbers is lower, all else being equal, than the per-unit cost of cars made in smaller numbers. Therefore, the auto maker can price the car lower, and expect to get a higher volume of sales. If the price is significantly higher than the customer thinks the car is worth, then it won’t sell as many. With lower volume of sales, the per-unit cost goes up… which means the auto maker overestimated the market, and the model will be a failure. (A recent example is the Cadillac ELR.)

        Tesla Motors knows all this. Tesla Motors isn’t stupid. Tesla Motors knows that the M≡ has to be priced to sell in the “semi-affordable” market segment. Tesla knows that controlling costs on the M≡ is much, much more important than it has been for Tesla’s more “premium” vehicles.

        This is just my opinion of course, but my opinion is that anyone who thinks the average sale price of the M≡ over time (not just the first year of sales) will be in the range of $50,000… thinks Tesla is stupid.

        However, since Tesla has made it clear that it’s giving production priority to higher trim levels, we can certainly expect the average sale price for the first few months of production to be at least $50,000, and likely more. But by the end of the second year of production, I expect to see the average sale price to come down to not much “north” of Elon’s estimate of $42,000.

      3. JakeY says:

        A fully loaded BMW M3 is about $90k. I see no reason why a fully loaded Model 3 performance model can’t be that price.

        1. Stimpacker says:

          Why would anyone pay $90K for a loaded Model 3 when the Model S can be had at that price?

          1. GMoney says:

            That’s exactly what I’m wondering. If the price gets too high, people will see it too expensive. I know at 75k, I’d cancel my preorder and just get a certified Model S and keep it moving.

          2. JakeY says:

            You can ask the same question of why someone would spend $90k on a BMW M3 when you can get a M5 for $94k.

            Obviously there’s enough buyers for BMW to offer it.

            Keep in mind a Performance Model S (the P100D) is $135k now, so there is a huge gap in the price even if Model 3 Performance is $90k.

    2. DJ says:

      Because Elon factors in all the savings when giving out his pricing estimates. Tack back on the $7,500 and you have $50k.

      He may also be tacking on the “gas savings” like they like to do as well for all we know.

      All we know is that you won’t be able to get the M3 for $35k before incentives for quite some time.

      1. Rich says:

        I watched the Model 3 reveal part 1 again to verify if the $35K includes the federal tax credit or not. It wasn’t stated either way.

        1. protomech says:

          The $35k does not account for the federal tax credit.

          http://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-model-3-will-cost-35-000-before-incent-1679351127

          or other sources, it’s been clarified more recently than that.

          1. Rich says:

            Thanks for the links. I assumed it was incorrect, but wanted documentation before stating such.

      2. Jim says:

        Not true.

    3. Rich says:

      “Elon Musk estimated the average price at $42,000. Is there any rational reason to believe someone who’s not a Tesla insider would have a better estimate?”

      +10 – I couldn’t have said it better.

      To me, this kind of video is nothing more than click bait. Elon said the average sale price of the Mdoel 3 will be $42K and even with NO options, the base Model 3 will be a great car. Keeping the math simple, if the base is $35K and the average is $42, this makes the top end ~$49K.

      The question of interest is “What’s included in the average sale price of $42K?”

      Here’s my 1st pass at options included in the average Tesla Model 3 sale price of $42K:

      1) largest battery pack
      2) AWD
      3) Warm climate dwellers = Glass roof / Cold climate dwellers = cold weather package
      4) HUD
      5) premium paint
      6) base level auto-pilot

      1. JakeY says:

        This is not the “average price” Elon was talking about in his context. The average price Elon was discussing is the weighted average considering the sales volume of the different trims. It does not mean that the mid-point between the most expensive version and the least expensive version is $42k.

        That means the most expensive version can be drastically higher in price than $49k, but it’ll sell in much lower volumes.

  4. Mario Courtemanche says:

    Battery upgrade, dual motors, air suspension, and sub-zero weather package for me if arround $50k. Self driving could make me spend the extra $3000.

  5. przemo_li says:

    167k is tripple of 70k

    What more to say about this guys math…

    1. William says:

      He didn’t say exactly triple. Listen a little more closely, before you start with your exacting math figures. He is approximating, which is not counting carefully. Please consider ordering a fully loaded Model 3, if you haven’t done so already, so we can see exactly how your math pencils out with your option equation. I’m thinking that a lot of us waiters and reservation holders, who are “Math Challenged”, are in the over $50K Model 3 crowd!

    2. TM says:

      Go to the web page yourself and start with the cheapest model S – ~$56,000.

      56000 * 3 = 168,000. So “nearly triple” is pretty dang accurate.

      1. TM says:

        I’ll leave the “ding” in place for him not stating the “correct” starting price of 56,000.

      2. needa says:

        In the video he uses a base price of $70,500 more than once.

  6. Mikael says:

    This makes you wonder when Teslas affordable car for the masses will come.

    Maybe a golf class hatchback called Model 2 in 2023.

    Maybe starting at $28k and “only” $40k average.

    1. William says:

      The “affordable car for the masses”. This EV is shipping now, and on some GM dealer lots currently. The GM Bolt beat Tesla to the punch with its 200+ mile car, that is available for under $40K. I think your truly affordable car, for the masses, will be between 2020-2025.

      1. Michael Will says:

        No supercharging and no stop and go automating cruise control, Hyundai Ioniq may not have the range but at least is more useful in stop and go traffic.

        1. DJ says:

          I remember back when we used to have to roll up our windows, lock our doors, open and shut our doors, and even shift gears on our own.

          Oh the humanity!!!! How did our parents and grand parents ever survive such a hellish time!!!!

    2. ffbj says:

      This will be the least expensive car Tesla ever makes.

  7. Jackson says:

    I’d take the glass roof and the autopilot.. All wheel drive is not necessary here in Pennsylvania.. would be nice but I’ll save the money for better tires which is WAY safer than AWD without.. and cheaper. I have driven in every recent snow storm we have had and never once had an issue in my Rear Wheel drive cars. Electric ones only have better traction control and wright distribution to boot.
    If you figure that you are saving about 100 or so a month on gas then that there is worth about 6k in options..

    1. Aaron says:

      Tesla’s AWD models have better efficiency than their RWD models, so keep that in mind too.

  8. Alaa says:

    I stopped at 3:29. I think his guy is foolish. For $35,000 and a 55 kWh battery that is a fantastic offer. The IONIQ electric has a drag coefficient of 0.24 and a 28 kWh battery. According to him the M3 will have a 55 kWh and a drag coefficient of 0.21. So it will travel at least 500 km. I would buy that car for that price even it has wooden seats.

    1. Pete says:

      Bolt hast a ~ 66 kWh battery, 60 kWh available. Tesla always advertise with the total capacity, so 55 kWh for Model 3 would be dissapointing.
      Until Model 3 arrives the Ioniq could get the Renault Zoe battery which is 44 kWh total and cost and Hyundai could price the Ioniq for 5000 $ less if they want.

    2. William says:

      No splinters in my seats, thank you very much. 500 km seems like a lot of range.

  9. Someone out there says:

    $75k seems a bit high but yeah it certainly will be a big number. I doubt you will get much car for the $35k and it will unlikely be delivered before 2019.

    1. Michael Will says:

      You get more car than the bolt for the same price but can option up from there.

      1. DJ says:

        Except that you can’t get it at the Bolts price now or anytime soon can ya??? Nope!

        1. William says:

          Another Dope, hanging from a Nope, dangling here as well. Model 3 has me blue in the face from holding my breath, until it rolls out of the back door in Freemont, Ca.

          1. shane says:

            Do we always have to have these Bolt Vs M3 arguments? Each car has advantages and disadvantages – each will serve it’s target audience better than the other. Why can’t we celebrate diversity? More and more varied options are better than fewer options – does anyone disagree with that?

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              Sadly, it seems that celebrating diversity and giving potential PEV (Plug-in EV) buyers more options is not seen as a positive thing by all too many people who post here. 🙁

              Perhaps that’s a sign of the times; the result of living in a society where what was formerly a real news mass media industry has morphed into an “infotainment” industry, which has replaced useful dialogue and meaningful debate with finding two extremists with polar opposite views on an issue, putting them in a room together and encouraging them to yell at each other. 😡

              1. DJ says:

                You are sooooooo full of crap. Oh wait! Now I get the name!!!

                You only play nice as long as everyone is on your side and agrees with you.

                Case in point, check out any hydrogen thread here… Diversity is good, just as long as it is your kinda diversity. Haha…

                1. William says:

                  PU-PU has a point that is well taken, along with a perspective that has to be considered, along with the rest of the hard to swallow posts. A bit hard to take at times, all of the Pew-Pew relentless banter, but PU-PU does bring it loud and clear.

  10. Someone out there says:

    I don’t think Tesla will be able to fit a 100 kWh battery in the model 3, even 90 kWh is a stretch. So I would guess that the base model comes with a 50 kWh battery that just about squeezes in 215 miles of range, the next level being 65 kWh and at the top level 75 kWh.

    1. James M says:

      The Model 3 and Model S wheelbases are almost identical. M3’s 10% reduction is mostly on the nose and tail of the car. So yes it could fit a 100kWh pack. In fact since the pack will also be a 30% more dense, that means 130kWh is even possible. And I would guess eventual, although not initially.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Hmm, correct me if I’m wrong, but the MS is a very wide car, and the M≡ isn’t. So that’s losing a lot more volume than you suggest.

        However, with the increase in energy density in batteries over 2012 when the MS was first produced, and the switch to the 2170 Gigafactory cells, I think Tesla would be able to cram 100 kWh of batteries in there if it really wants to. But I don’t see the M≡ being given a battery pack equal to the top end MS. That would give the “semi-affordable” M≡ more range than the “premium” MS, which would reduce the perceived value of the upper trim levels of the MS, and endanger its position as a “premium” car.

        My guess is that Tesla will never put a battery pack in the M≡ which will give it a longer range than the highest trim level MS that Tesla makes at that time. In fact, my guess is that the highest trim level MS will always have a longer range than the highest trim level M≡ then available. Just a guess, though. I’m not sufficiently sure of that to label it a prediction.

        1. Nix says:

          If the M3 comes in as more efficient (like is typical when moving down in classes of cars), then there really would be no reason to have an M3 100. Similar range would likely be attainable with a smaller battery in the M3 vs the MS. Just like the MS gets more range out of the same battery as the MX.

        2. Rick says:

          Once the model 3 is out, I wouldn’t see why the S would have a mileage advantage over the more economical car. Technology and luxury maybe, but not range. Other luxury cars aren’t about getting the best mpg. If you want mass adoption, your lesser priced cars will have less luxury but higher mileage.

          In regards to the price, I highly doubt the $42k would include the incentive that he knows will be gone very soon and the car needs to be able to sell without incentives. I think he’s speaking about true cost now and for the near future.

  11. Rebel44 says:

    My prefered config:
    upgraded battery (around 70kWh)
    AWD
    Full Autopilot + self driving
    Premium Package
    Sub-zero weather package

    If we assume that options on Model 3 will cost 75% of what they cost on Model S, taht would result in price around $52K before tax.

    Since I have fairly new (4 year old) car and I want to reduce my cost of Model 3, I plan to buy CPO in 2020-2021.

    1. William says:

      Figure in a glass roof as well in 2020-2021. The CPO choosers in 3-4 years won’t have a lot of inventory to choose from when it comes to lower optioned Tesla model 3 vehicles.

      1. Rebel44 says:

        Glass roofs are not all that popular here in EU – most Model S I have seen here dont have it.

  12. przemo_li says:

    “He is approximating”…

    70500 * 3 = 211500 (real tripple)
    167500 (real price for folly loaded car)

    211500 – 167500 = 44000 (absolute error)
    4400 / 167500 = 0,262686567 (relative error)
    0,262686567 * 100% ~ 26,3% (percentage error)

    No. He was not even close!
    Slapping “Nearly” do not mean “maybe not”

  13. Mister G says:

    I want AWD,215 miles per charge (real world driving), 0-60 in 3.2 seconds, AP for $50k.

    1. ffbj says:

      That’s Ludicrous!

  14. Ray says:

    Auto driving and bigger battery is all i really want

  15. Priusmaniac says:

    Interesting, I would choose the following options:
    Highest battery energy 4875 x 2
    High amperage 1125

    Total: 45875 $

    I would also add fog lamps, which is really required here around.

    Then you have to see what the € price will be 21% vat included to perhaps consider Dual motors.

  16. George L Parrott says:

    i want 0-60 mph in 2.5 seconds AND 10.x in the quarter mile….
    plus all the other goodies too. Wanting is easy; it is the getting that is so hard.

  17. ffbj says:

    Difficult to say since we don’t really know exactly what options will be available. My speculation is as it always has been that the average will be around $45k before incentives.

    Musk’s original guess, and that is all it was, came in long before additional features were guaranteed to be included in the car. Today I think he raise his guess a few thousand.

    1. Rich says:

      We’ll know soon enough. Part 3 of the reveal is targeted for spring 2017.

  18. Mark says:

    This is all speculation on a car that doesn’t even exist in hardware form yet.

    1. Jason says:

      Pretty sure the car exists in hardware, plenty of people had a test ride at the reveal and others seem in the wild. What you mean is that it is not available to buy yet. If M3 is due 2017 then they really should have production ready cars by now, and just be doing all the quality & compliance checks, I would think.

      I’ll take the base model, still easily better than anything else, I expect. If I can afford options, then the biggest battery (that gives range and longevity), autopilot, and maybe AWD.

      Not sure why options such as autopilot would be any cheaper on M3 than MS/X, same hardware and same R&D cost. Maybe one side benefit of mass production will see a reduction of these options on MS/X?

    2. Anon says:

      *Tsk* History repeating itself?

      I recall how people ‘predicted’ there would be no working Model III’s at the First Reveal– just 2D “Concept Drawings”, based off a single out of context quote Musk gave to a French Speaking audience on the subject.

      Those people slithered back into their FUD-Holes pretty quickly, once the two working prototype cars were shown on stage (the red one is a buck). Now, we get your example: no real / physical hardware, a full nine months later.

      Well, if production is scheduled for suppliers to have their S**t ready for July, then the production ready hardware needs to already be done and finished vetting by no later than March. If you can have a baby in nine months, just imagine throwing all your best engineers on a single accelerated dev program…

      FYI: Sources have reported Tesla ordered enough parts to built 300 test units; so don’t be surprised if you’re completely wrong about the production intent Model III not existing in hardware form yet.

      As for your comparison to cat videos, I found Jameson’s video, far more entertaining.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Anon said:

        “Sources have reported Tesla ordered enough parts to built 300 test units; so don’t be surprised if you’re completely wrong about the production intent Model III not existing in hardware form yet.”

        Yes, and to quote Carl Sagan: “Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence.”

        But all that aside, industry watchers think the lack of any reports of seeing Model ≡’s doing test drives on the streets and highways around Fremont is an indication that there are still no actual pre-production Model ≡’s. Just the two prototypes.

        Here’s hoping they’re wrong, but since I’ve been predicting the M≡ will be ~6 months late into production, this doesn’t surprise me.

  19. Carlos says:

    I strongly believe the Tesla 3 will be priced to compete with the BMW 3 Series… as you work your way up the performance and luxury ladder I figure it’ll max out at to a price comparable to an M3 minus the gas motor of course…

  20. Daniel Wilkinson says:

    I will keep my AWD ICE for snow days and road trips so I won’t need AWD or larger capacity battery, just fun stuff! For the cost of those two options anyone could buy an AWD second car in good condition. My M3 will replace 70% of my annual miles. When the supercharger stations emerge from growing pains of mass use I will reconsider.

  21. John Roppelt says:

    What do you guess the rang would be with a 7 5 K W h Battery?

    1. Rich says:

      Taking a WAG, the Model 3 75D will achieve EPA rated range in the 4 miles / kWh range. At 4 miles / kWh, 75kWh battery pack would put the vehicle in the 300 mile range.

      The Model S EPA rated range on the 75D is 3.45 miles / kWh. Hopefully the Tesla Model 3 can gain at least a 12.5% improvement in energy consumption with improved drag coefficient, weight reduction, lower rolling resistance tires (smaller), motor efficiency, and electronics inefficiencies.

  22. Nix says:

    Assuming that options will cost the same in different classes of cars is a mistake. That is NOT how it generally works in ICE cars. Often, it can cost more to load up options into a higher line car than a lower line car.

    For example, upgraded paint on a BMW 340i is +700. But it costs +1,800 for upgraded paint on the 740i.

    The most expensive leather upgrade on the 340i is $1,450. For the 740i, the most expensive leather is $5,500.

    To go to a larger wheel size in the 340i, it is $900. On the 740i, it is $1,300

    And when you max out the 740i, it will cost you a cool $12,000 to get Autobahn, Executive, and Luxury Rear Seat packages, and there is nothing like that when you max out the 340i.

    Even simple things, like blacking out the front grill, costs you $230 in the 340i, and $310 in the 740i.

    Sometimes the difference is in quality too, like the upgraded sound system in the lower line of cars having fewer speakers and less power than top of the line cars. Or super-pimp flawless paint jobs. Sometimes it is just the low volume of parts for the top sector car options, compared to the larger volume of more common parts in the lower line car. Like much more rare materials for trim options.

    The options for the M3 will likely cost much less than the S/X when the options are maxed out.

  23. Nix says:

    Tesla has repeatedly said that battery costs from the Gigafactory will be 30% cheaper.

    On top of that, smaller classes of cars typically get more efficiency out of their powertrains than larger car classes. Even when using the same power of drivetrain. When using a less powerful drivetrain, they are often even more efficient.

    Tesla has also stated that their profit margin will be less for the M3, and there is no reason why that wouldn’t include the profit margin on options.

    So the cost to add 100 miles of range to the M3 may very well be significantly less than adding 100 miles of range to an X or S.

  24. Steven says:

    Tell you what, I use to drive a ’93 Hyundai Excel. Described as “Cheap as mud” by one car magazine. If the base model 3 is more luxurious than that, it might be enough for me.

    Or…

    Speaking of Hyundai…
    When the Ionic and the 3 are both available locally, I’ll compare comparably priced models and go from there.

  25. leafowner says:

    Mid-level with autopilot works 4 me (no glass roof though) My bet is 275+ miles from a dula motor, 70 kwh battery

  26. Jim.Wilson says:

    As a model 3 reservation holder, my options would be
    Largest Range Battery: $10,000
    Fully Autonomous hard/software: $5000
    Dual Motors: $4000
    Premium Interiors & Super Sound; $5000
    All Glass Roof: $2000
    Fastest Charging internals: $1000
    Total Options: $27000 round up to $30,000

    Bar Car: $35000
    Options: $30000
    Total M3 package $65000
    JimW