SoCal to be Home to More Than 350,000 Plug-In Vehicles by 2020

4 years ago by Eric Loveday 14

A Big Feature In California:  HOV Access

A Big Feature In California: HOV Access

Buried within a recently released Southern California Edison (SCE) white paper titled “Charged Up” was this promising detail: SCE is getting its grid ready to serve the estimated 350,000 plug-in vehicles that will be within the utilities service area by 2020.

Volt in HOV Lane

Volt in HOV Lane

This estimate may seem high, but it’s not coming from some market research firm who may or may not received funding from either big oil or a green interest group.  Nope, this estimate comes straight from the company who’s responsible for supplying juice to the booming number of plug-in in the Southern California region.

SCE says that it currently provides power for around 10% of all of the plug-ins on the roads in the US today.

So, if we do some number crunching and assume that SCE will keep steady at that 10%, then by 2020 there could be 3.5 million plug ins on US roads.

Surely that’s some crude math and the 2020 result could vary dramatically, but it at least gives us an idea of what to expect from a utility company’s perspective.

SoCal ED’s White Paper can be found here

SCE Service Area Map

SCE Service Area Map

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14 responses to "SoCal to be Home to More Than 350,000 Plug-In Vehicles by 2020"

  1. Foo says:

    Great… another drunk person applying their HOV stickers. Hey, yoo-hoo… they go on the back, like the picture in the instructions.

    Seriously, why can’t people their HOV stickers on properly? They’re all wacky crooked and/or in the wrong spots.

    1. kdawg says:

      I wouldn’t want to put a sticker on my car paint. Can’t they have something goes on the inside of the window, or maybe on the license plate?

      1. Foo says:

        You cannot modify your license plate in any way. (Other than to apply the official month sticker from the DMV.)

        I’ve seen people apply the stickers to their rear side windows (I guess glass is easier to remove from) but I don’t think that is encouraged.

        Personally, I put some wax down under the stickers and stuck them in the traditional spots (on paint). I don’t know if the wax will help, but I don’t think it can hurt. And, apparently, the stickers are not so hard to take off. The trick is to carefully heat them (with a hair dryer or heat gun) and slowly peel them off. You can google the technique.

    2. Carl says:

      I received 3 stickers.
      Two for the Rear, and one for the front.
      The diagrams were very specific where the large decals and the small decals go.

      And kdawg is right, it feels wrong to put those stickers on a brand new vehicle… but I had to suck it up, and just do it.

      1. io says:

        Carl, sorry to say but…
        “For white decals, place on the right side of the REAR bumper only” (my emphasis)

        Foo is correct, EV stickers never go on the front of the vehicle; PHVs’ do, but they are green, and there are four total.
        See http://www.dmv.ca.gov/vr/decal.htm question 23.

        And yes, I too would really prefer if CA just issued EV and/or PHV license plates instead of those ugly stickers. But I realize those are easier for police to spot…

      2. Foo says:

        Sorry Carl, if you put your white HOV stickers on the front, then you’ve only proved my point. 🙂

        Somehow, you managed to misread the instructions:
        http://www.dmv.ca.gov/vr/decal.htm

  2. kdawg says:

    There are ~120,000 plug-ins on the roads today. So 10% = 12,000, being charged by SCE. Plugins. Accumulative plug in cars have been doubling about every 6 months. Let’s be more conservative and say it will double every year instead. That means in 2020 there will approximately 1.5 million EV’s on the roads.

    I’d like to know how many cars there are in general in the SoCal area, to see how 12,000 compares.

    1. BrainKnot says:

      Base on experience – for every 50,000 EV’s $100,000,0000 staysin the local economy – thus 1.5 million EV’s would keem an extra $3 BILLION each year not being sent to OIL countries…. of course your mileage may vary, but in my case it is over $3,000 in yearly savings NOT buying gasoline – this figure could only be higher if there are oil supply issues in the next 7 years.

      1. Rick says:

        Oil supply issues will happen eventually, the only question is, will it be a smooth transition, or a bloody one?

        1. Ocean Railroader says:

          Us moving over to electric cars is going a lot more smoothly then I thought it would be in 2007. In that during that time there where no mass marketed plug in cars at the time and you where stuck with gas if you wanted to or not. And this meant if the oil facet got cut off we would fall apart like a meth addict being locked in a room. At least now there are a few more things keeping gas prices in check in that if say gas went up to $6.00 dollars a gallon today you could go out and buy a plug in car. Back in 2007 you couldn’t really do anything about it but you could get your frustration out by flipping over a few cars and burning a few buildings and rioting in that there really where not any other options.

          Even now the gas prices are not behaving as violently as I was planning on them in that in 2008 the gas prices where going up by leaps and bounds at $0.10 to $0.20 a week for weeks on end. And then they crashed when the recession started. But I have a theory that that the the exponential rising gas prices up in front of the recession where 40% to 60% of the damage that helped start the recession. In that sure they talked about the banking meltdown and the giant bailouts. But if you where more careful with your money the $4.30 gas rolling in would do severe damage to your finances if you where lower income and lived 30 to 40 miles from work. I even remember having a small car that would cost $60 to put gas in it during the peak.

          As of now I don’t think gas prices could do what they did in 2007 in that there is a severe threat of the plug in car monster keeping gas prices in line. Such as if you are a oil company and you have a monopoly over one type of fuel and none of the cars are able to use anything else you can do what you please. But with electric and plug in cars you as a oil company would have to be more careful to avoid raising prices to fast other wise it might trigger a massive slide in people moving over to EV’s. Think of what could have happened if the Nissan Leaf or the EV1 had been allowed to live around during the 2007 gas price run up. It would have triggered a greater flood of need for EVs then now.

          A example of this power that plug in cars have on gas prices is that on the week GM released the news that they where cutting the price of the Chevy Volt by $5000 dollars gas prices where $3.45 in my area and they dropped down to $3.15 with in 3 days of the news. If you do the math with the $5000 price cut at $3.40 that is 1400 less gallons of gas you could buy if your trying to break even.

      2. Ocean Railroader says:

        The EV’s over the next ten years are going to trigger major problems in the middle east in that I have read a book called Twilight in the Desert which is about what will happen to global economy when Saudi Arabia’s largest oil field finally dies. But the book also talks about how 80% of the middle east’s money and jobs are based off of the oil industry or funding from fees collected from oil revenue and it’s not going to be a pretty picture when these forces start happening.

  3. Rick says:

    Recent trends, such as increased EV and hybrid use, increased natural gas production, revamped interest in nuclear power technology, and a smooth drop off in petroleum demand, lead me to be hopeful it will be a smooth transition.

    1. B00nk says:

      It’ll be 35 grand for a loaf of bread,but it will be orderly and smoove transition to electric cars.

      1. Ocean Railroader says:

        I would be worried about something happening to the US like what happened to Germany after world war one where they ran the printing presses for everything and they did million dollar loafs of bread and they did people with wheelbarrows of money waiting in line for soup and bread. As for this happening it could happen depending on how much they try to game the money system. But $10 a gallon gas could help trigger it.