Shipments of Advanced Batteries in 2014 Totalled 53.3 GWh

1 year ago by Mark Kane 34

One i3 battery module. As you can see there are twelve cells in each module, and there are eight modules in the pack.

BMW i3 batteries

Future LEAF Packs To Come From LG Chem?

Nissan LEAF pack

Navigant Research, in its latest “Advanced Battery Tracker 4Q15″ report, stated that in 2014 the total “advanced battery” market (automotive, stationary energy storage systems, and consumer electronics) amounted to 53.3 GWh.

That would be enough to virtually make some 750,000 Tesla batteries (@70 kWh each), which clearly shows how far the battery market has come.

The second number is that in 2014, energy capacity increased by 12.8% compared to 2013, so it was 47.3 GWh in 2013, meaning that in one year another 6 GWh was added.

We believe that the increase in 2015 is even bigger, but those numbers aren’t in just yet.

Revenues are growing slower than energy capacity – by 7.1% (2014 over 2013). That would mean a falling combination of cost of batteries and margins (the first part is probably the leading factor) by several percent in one year.

LG Chem lithium-ion battery cell

LG Chem lithium-ion battery cell

“Demand for batteries as an alternative means to power vehicles, grid management equipment, and devices increased in multiple industries around the world in 2014. The advanced batteries market is in continued growth mode due to the expansion of the consumer electronics segment, led by smartphones, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), and stationary grid energy storage systems. Overall, the industry shipped 53.3 GWh of batteries in 2014, with the majority in the consumer electronics segment. However, emerging sectors such as automotive and stationary energy storage continued to experience growing market shares.

Lithium ion (Li-ion) continues to be the primary chemistry utilized in consumer electronics, including power tools, and automotive applications. The only major application segment with significant penetration by other chemistries is stationary energy storage, where some systems utilized flow batteries, advanced lead-acid, and sodium-metal halide batteries in 2014.

This Navigant Research report identifies developments and trends in the advanced batteries market by tracking the shipments of batteries around the world for 2014. The Tracker focuses on new market activity and market share analysis for the key application segments that utilize advanced batteries: automotive, stationary energy storage, and consumer electronics, including power tools. Comprehensive documentation is provided for energy capacity (MWh), power capacity (MW), cells shipped, and revenue for advanced batteries across all global regions and across all technologies.”

Source: Navigant Research

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34 responses to "Shipments of Advanced Batteries in 2014 Totalled 53.3 GWh"

  1. ffbj says:

    Navigant Research, is much better at telling us what happened in contrast to what will happen.

    1. jerryd says:

      From their record as Pike, they need to stick to what was as their predictions really blow.
      Same with Lux. Both seem to make the ‘predictions’, costs that big auto want to hear.
      They said for yrs lithium OEM costs were more than I was buying them retail at the time for EV quality cells.

  2. Three Electrics says:

    Makes the Gigafactory look tiny, especially when extrapolated to 2020.

    1. Robb Stark says:

      The world 2014 53.3 GWh.

      Tesla Gigafactory 1 in 2020 35 GWh.

      Tesla Gigafactory 2 in 2020 ????

      Tiny indeed…… ROTFLMAO.

      1. SJC says:

        Each Tesla has thousands of cell which must perform perfectly for more than a decade. Tough challenge when you want to make 300,000 Model 3 cars per year.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Nope. Tesla designs its battery packs to allow failure of any individual cell while minimizing the effect on the entire pack. That’s why each individual cell has its own fuse. Tesla expects a few cells to fail over the lifetime of the car, and designs its packs accordingly.

          That is one of several ways that Tesla’s small cells are an advantage over what other EV makers are using. In a pack with larger “prismatic” cells, failure of just one cell may lower the pack capacity by as much as 1/2 a kWh!

          1. SJC says:

            What will it cost to remove and replace those cells? How many of those procedures have been done?

            1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

              From a discussion thread about disassembling a Model S battery pack (see link below), it looks like replacing a few cells would be quite difficult and expensive, or at least it would be without specialized equipment. Do Tesla service centers have such equipment? I don’t know, but my guess is they don’t.

              As I recall, Tesla says it wants to start recycling battery packs when Gigafactory is up and running. But I haven’t seen any reports of Model S battery packs being refurbished; so far as I know, this isn’t being done.

              http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/34934-Pics-Info-Inside-the-battery-pack

              1. SJC says:

                Tesla blogs and comments are not statements from the company. There is NO longer term data from accelerated life testing published from the company that I know of.
                Musk has stated that battery swap stations have not been popular, they have also stated that the battery pack is filled with foam for heat transfer and fire suppression. That does not make for ease of cell replacement.

      2. zzzzzzzzzz says:

        Tesla fanboys are indeed amazing. They compare what was really made in 2014 with Musk dreams for 2020 or most likely much later, as most factories don’t work at full capacity from the beginning. By the time Musk overhyped factory will be working at full capacity, world production will be maybe 10 times more than in 2014.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Well, if Tesla fanboys really did compare Gigafactory output to the total world production of li-ion batteries, as this article quite inappropriately does, then you’d have a point.

          But Tesla-related articles, and posts from Tesla fans, generally concentrate on just the li-ion battery market segment for EV battery packs, not the entire market including batteries used in cell phones, laptops, and many other things, even including electric shavers.

          Now, zzzzzzzzzz, regarding your snide FUD suggestion that Gigafactory production won’t ramp up as soon as planned: The Gigafactory 1 project is currently ahead of schedule, and at present it appears there is good reason to be optimistic that it will ramp up to full production 2020, as planned.

          But the important point about Gigafactory 1 production isn’t some sort of “race” in which the top li-ion battery producer gets some sort of award for being #1. The important point is that Gigafactory 1 production will make it possible for Tesla to make and sell as many as 500,000 long-range BEVs per year… far more than the entire world’s current output.

          Tesla, and perhaps BYD, are the only BEV makers ramping up production of li-ion batteries at a rate which will soon make high volume production of long-range BEVs possible. The other BEV makers will have to fight over a limited supply.

          Of course, since you’re a Tesla basher, you won’t admit this is a very significant indicator of who will be building a large volume of long-range BEVs over the next few years… and who won’t.

    2. Tech01x says:

      Wow.. still trying to denigrate Tesla at every turn. Did they fire you for incompetence or something?

      1. super390 says:

        Maybe that is an incompetent way to insult Tesla, because to me Three Electric’s statement is proof that the Gigafactory is not an unreasonable act, that there’s plenty of companies making batteries because there is a market for them. And much of that market is not cars. It’s still cheaper to make them in-house than pay someone else, but if demand were to go even higher, Tesla could start outside sales.

        1. SJC says:

          Some try to glorify Tesla “at every turn”.
          GM published accelerated life testing on the Volt batteries. I see no data from Tesla, only blog comments and anecdotes.

    3. JakeY says:

      I don’t see how it makes the Gigafactory look look tiny. This is the entire world’s production of batteries that includes not only BEVs and plug-ins, but all cars, stationary storage, AND consumer electronics. That one factory can even approach that is quite incredible.

      The first stage alone that will be in operation this year will be ~7 GWh in capacity, by far the largest battery factory in the US, if not the world. For a comparison, Panasonic’s Suminoe plant which makes cells for Tesla is about 3-4GWh. LG Chem’s plant that will makes cells for the Bolt is similar in capacity.

  3. Ocean Railroader says:

    It would be interesting to see how many barrels of oil this is offsetting. In that I feel the reason why we have the record low oil prices is that the electric cars are starting to get warmed up and the oil companies can’t press their luck with getting replaced like they did five years ago.

    1. Small but numbers are growing says:

      Saving about 1400 barrel of oil a day. I am sure others can do a better calculation then me but only when there are 10 million plug-in cars do they really start making a difference.

      But … we have to start somewhere.

      1. Jay Cole says:

        I can help out with this if you like….and I’ll show my maths, (=

        Heading into January 2016, there are ~1,186,000 million plug-in vehicles. Of which, the BEVs use no gas, the average PHEV drives ~2,900 on gas/has an extended MPG of about ~35, so about 82 gallons of usage, which is ~4.3 barrels of oil

        Total ballpark gas usage by plug-in vehicles worldwide this year (if all months had the same number of plug-ins on it as we did entering January of 2016) would be ~25.5 million gallons, or 1.3 million barrels.

        The average worldwide driver uses ~525 gallonsof gas per year, or 27.6 barrels.

        So, without EVs 1,186,000 more petrol vehicles would be in service, which would use ~622,650,000 gallons, which is ~32.8 million barrels of oil, less the 1.3 million that is still being consumed by plug-ins, is a net difference of 31.5 million barrels.

        …or 86,200 barrels less per day due to the presence of plug-in vehicles.

        This number will increase by about 4-7% per month in 2016 – depending on the month, and the depth of time we travel into the coming year.

        1. Ocean Railroader says:

          That could be a good chunk of why oil prices are not rising and dropping. In that I was reading a book called Twilight in the Desert and Herbert’s Peak about what could trigger a global oil shortage.

          Booth books explained that the 1970’s oil sock was triggered by OPEC cutting oil production 10% below global oil demand. And was not a case of them turning everything off. What happened was the 10% cut mixed in with rampant growing oil demand at the time and caused the oil supply to shrink.

          What the electric cars are doing now is if they are offsetting one or two oil tankers every eight to twelve weeks and it makes sense about global oil prices going down.

          The thing that worries me now is all the morons are going out and buying giant gas guzzling SUV’s and idling them in the parking lots for hours on end.

          1. Jay Cole says:

            Relatively speaking, ~86,200 barrels a day is pretty insignificant, but what you say on pricing is true.

            The price of oil is moved by the top few percentage points between supply and demand, the fringe if you will. Continually having a couple points too much production will plummet the price point, and the opposite is also true causing it to skyrocket.

            This current drop is certainly not precipitated at all by EVs, but it isn’t helping either. Once production comes back inline with demand (or someone blinks) things will probably stabilize back for a bit, then over exaggerate itself the other way.

            The highest percent of oil is used in transportation (of that light passenger vehicles), so if current worldwide trends in plug-in adoption continue (~60% gain last year), you could start to see it affect oil in ~5 years…when it would hit about 7% of all global light vehicle sales (~5.3 million plug-ins)

            So, a 7% worldwide plug-in sales rate (allowing for 25% PHEVs) would displace ~890,000 barrels a day, which would be a 1% (ish) hit to oil demand on a going forward basis (assuming 2020 production levels are at par with 2015).

            /maths

            1. mr. M says:

              China economy down by 7% means ~7% less oil used in china. So it is sad, but EVs have until now only little influence.

              But in 2022 we will be singing the time they are a chainging. 😉

              1. Jay Cole says:

                /totally agree

      2. Not as small as I thought says:

        Thanks to Jay for correcting my numbers. My biggest mistake was basing my calculation on another posters 100000 car statement and not verifying actual worldwide totals.

        1. Jay Cole says:

          It got me thinking, and I enjoyed ‘doing the math’ on it just the same, (=

    2. Paul says:

      Low oil prices have nothing to do with the few EVs that are on the road now and also nothing with the growing number of solar panels and wind mills, since oil is hardly used to produce electricity.

      The cause is less demand from China-at-crisis, at the same time that OPEC is not succeeding in limiting production. Add to that the prospect of Iran throwing its barrels on the market soon and the new big boy in oil – the USA – starting to export soon.

      1. super390 says:

        Why would we export when our production is still less than our consumption and our fracked oil is more expensive to produce than conventional oil from the traditional supplier states? It sounds like they will win a price war with us in Eurasia and Africa if they can use pipelines instead of tankers.

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          1. As of a year or so ago, the USA is a net oil exporter.

          2. According to a PBS News Hour report only a day or two ago, major oil producers including both the U.S. fracking industry and OPEC countries are not reacting to the drop in oil prices as one would expect, by curtailing the more expensive drilling/pumping operations; but rather, by increasing production in an attempt to make up for lost income by increased volume.

          As Jay already suggested, it’s pretty much a lead-pipe certainty that this will eventually result in a “pendulum swing”, as oil prices stop falling and then over-correct, spiking upward.

          * * * * *

          It’s interesting to compare the rise and fall of petroleum prices over the past few decades to the rise and fall of whale oil prices in a previous era, before whale oil was replaced by kerosene. The specific reasons for the roller-coaster rise and fall of petroleum prices are quite different than the roller-coaster rise and fall of whale oil prices, but the economic effects and outcomes are similar.

          Just like the end of the wale oil era, the end of the petroleum era will be marked with increasing pendulum swings. One thing that made the switch from whale oil to kerosene more attractive was that when some facility or company did switch, they could be assured of a stable price for fuel from that time on. This made financial planning a lot easier. So that was a reason for staying with kerosene even during the times when whale oil prices temporarily dipped below kerosene prices.

          The same thing will happen in the current era, replacing petroleum power with electrical power. Once the average person or company has made the switch, they’re unlikely to want to switch back and have to again worry about what the price of gasoline/diesel will be next month, or next year, even when at-the-pump prices for gasoline/diesel dip to a low point.

          1. John C says:

            US crude oil consumption is almost 19M barrels/day, and production is closer to 12M barrels/day.

            The US is NOT a net oil exporter.

            At $30 oil, most if not all OPEC producers are still turning a profit on every barrel they pump, and most if not all frackers would lose money, but many can sell at above the current spot price due to futures contracts negotiated a year ago.

  4. andre says:

    oil overproduction has nothing to do with a few 100 000 electric cars worlwide……(not yet)

    1. Big Solar says:

      true but arent there more like 400,000 EVs on the road worldwide?

      1. Jay Cole says:

        As of year end 2015, some ~1,186,000 road worth plug-in vehicles (not neighborhood) have been sold worldwide…just about ~510,000 last year

  5. andre says:

    natural gas (LNG)is still a huge game changer(electricity generation-instead of polluting coal)…so i wouldn,t worry for Shell,Exon,BP,Royal Dutch,or even Russia……and &.

  6. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    Navigant Research. Lessee, isn’t that the company which, in its latest survey of battery makers for the EV market, completely left off BYD, which is now in 3rd place by kWh produced?

    I’d compare Navigant’s ability to do “research” to a barrel of monkeys with a typewriter, but that wouldn’t be fair to the monkeys.