Plug-In Electric Car Sales Expected To Grow By 652% In Europe Through 2021

1 year ago by Mark Kane 11

EU+EFTA: New registrations of electric cars (source: Autofacts)

EU+EFTA: New registrations of electric cars (source: Autofacts)

EU+EFTA: Light EV Assembly 2014 vs. 2021 (thousands) (source: Autofacts)

EU+EFTA: Light EV Assembly 2014 vs. 2021 (thousands) (source: Autofacts)

Autofacts released an interesting analysis of alternatively fueled vehicles (AFV) sales for Europe, although we need to be careful as EVs are combined with hybrids this time.

According to sales data and forecasts, sales of plug-ins (all-electric and plug-in hybrids) will increase from 157,000 in 2014 to 1,181,000 in 2021 or 652% (which is a pretty specific number for such an advanced projection to be sure).

Sales of conventional hybrids will increase by just around 300% and will be lower than plug-ins in 2021 at 1,048,000 annually.

Overall, electrified car sales are expected to increase by 433% over 7 years, according to Autofacts.

Normally, we would end here but there is one more graph in the Autofacts presentation with CO2 emissions. As it turns out, under the current energy mix in Europe, hydrogen cars would be the worst solution:

Emissions of CO2 for different drive variants Well-to-Wheel (gCO2/km) (source: Autofacts)

Emissions of CO2 for different drive variants Well-to-Wheel (gCO2/km) (source: Autofacts)

Source: Autofacts via Green Car Congress

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11 responses to "Plug-In Electric Car Sales Expected To Grow By 652% In Europe Through 2021"

  1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “Plug-In Electric Car Sales Expected To Grow By 652% In Europe Through 2021”

    If we assume exponential growth, that would represent a 36.7% (compound) growth per year, assuming that includes the full years for 2016 and 2021.

    If we assume linear growth, that’s 108.67% per year. That’s not a realistic economic growth pattern; markets simply don’t develop that way.

    The exponential growth pattern is possibly more plausible, but there is not yet any evidence that the EV revolution has gone into its exponential growth phase.

    * * * * *

    The article says:

    “…652% (which is a pretty specific number for such an advanced projection to be sure).”

    Yes, it’s always amusing to see such precision in economic projections which are, generally speaking, poorly educated guesses; projections which always turn out to be no more accurate than throwing a dart at a dartboard.

    1. RexxSee says:

      My guestimate is 1427,34%

      1. Mikael says:

        That is closer to the truth. There is no chance that the european plug-in sales will be as little as 1.2 million per year in 2021.

  2. Absidu says:

    An analyst measured averange depth of the river as 1 meter.. and sank.

  3. Stimpy says:

    What’s the prediction for fuel cells? 😉

    1. SJC says:

      Fuel cells could do well after 2020 if they get reformers to run on liquid fuels.

  4. Speculawyer says:

    EV sales will probably do better in Europe in the near term since they still have high gasoline/diesel prices due to their taxes. Also, their governments are all big on providing incentives due to climate change goals.

    I think they also like the idea of reducing dependence on oil for national security reasons. Who wants to be so dependent on Russia/Putin and Mid-East Islamists for your oil supply? With some solar, hydropower, nuclear, and a lot of wind, they can generate their own clean domestic electricity for plug-in cars.

    1. TNT says:

      I agree with your reasoning. Don’t forget that several large cities in Europe also have serious pollution problems. When pollution is high, there are restrictions on driving a car. BEV’s don’t have these restrictions.

      1. Speculawyer says:

        Yep. That is a effect of their terrible policy that encouraged diesel vehicles.

  5. Rick Bronson says:

    Better batteries are coming. Hope this will push the range of EVs higher.

    https://www.yahoo.com/tech/breakthrough-battery-prototype-store-five-times-energy-current-033051386.html