Pending And Prolonged Oil Crisis Arriving In The Form Of The Electric Car – Video

1 year ago by Jay Cole 82


A recent video by Bloomberg looks past the current crash in oil prices around the world that was brought on by an excess supply of some 2 million barrels per day thanks to new capacities coming online.

"Not A Dream" Video Explores The Impact Of Tesla On Oil (via Freise Brothers)

“Not A Dream” Video Explores The Impact Of Tesla On Oil (via Freise Brothers)

It is assumed market factors (such as co-ordinated production caps, bankruptcies, reduced future investments,  etc) will ultimately balance today’s over capacity during the next year or two, and that prices will moderate.

But what happens when the plug-car meets the “S Curve” of new disruptive technology adoption and electric vehicles start displacing those same 2 million barrels all over again due to a reduction in demand?  What about when that displacement stretches even further still into the future?

According to even conservative market research (provided it doesn’t come via Exxon), those 2 million barrels should be displaced once again by EV adoption very early in the next decade, perhaps in about ~5 years.

The result of all those plug-ins hitting the road is an oil crisis the likes we have never seen before.  According to Bloomberg:

“Trillions invested in oil will be lost, while trillions in new energy will be won.   The power of nations will be shuffled, that is the promise of the new peak oil.  And it may be coming sooner than you think.”

Check out Bloomberg’s informative companion/written piece here, Hat tip to Matt T & Birch H!

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82 responses to "Pending And Prolonged Oil Crisis Arriving In The Form Of The Electric Car – Video"

  1. evcarnut says:

    $140/50 0il is Insanely ludicrous ..When I was in the oil business THE MOST WE GOT WAS $25 A BARREL .I was thrilled with that, Even though my 94yr old, “father figure partner” was robbing me 60%+ of my fair share. ..These Greedy Pigs Are never satisfied ..I have never heard of an honest oil man they are 99.999999999999999999999999% Are thieves…They shall get 100fold what they deserve ..0iL Should Go to below $7 a Barrel. So these Thieves go to work like the rest of us, & earn their keep.

    1. Ocean Railroader says:

      If oil ever goes back to a $100 dollars a barrel I will have long ago bought solar panels and own a EV. The only thing really stopping me from owning a EV is my crappy low wage job.

      1. goodbyegascar says:

        First generation used EVs are on the market now, and they are affordable. They promise to get better every year, too.

        1. Lad says:

          I see Leafs for sale at about $6-$10,000.

          There are people working on reverse engineering Leafs to add capacity to the battery and hopefully this will lead to a range upgrade aftermarket replaceable pack eventually. Worse case is to have Nissan replace the pack at about $6-$8,000, depending on the dealer.

          At about 1 min 48 secs.

      2. Speculawyer says:

        Oil prices will rise eventually unless they are displaced by alternative technologies. It is a mathematically certainty. I think the alternative technologies will prevent it from happening though.

        1. SJC says:

          Boomers drive less.

      3. drowan says:

        Ocean, Check out the Chevy Spark EV. It is the least cost car to own in its class. It’s an EV has 140 hp, 250 foot pounds of torque and is a BLAST TO DRIVE. ZERO TO 60 in 7.4. Least expensive car I have ever owned. And quicker than the BMW I 3. List price $23,500. Before any incentives.

    2. Epicurus says:

      Oil industry people are no more, and no less, greedy and unscrupulous on average than people in many other industries, like real estate or the movie industry. Granted, industries where large windfalls are possible do attract the sociopaths, like the man you were in business with. America is a carnival of con jobs. Even the charities are often rip-offs.

  2. Mister G says:

    The irony is that low oil prices resulted from increased US shale oil production”drill baby drill”.

    1. evcarnut says:

      Yes Too much Drilling & too much fracking ((man made earth quake)) is Destroying the planet .80% of the oil is made by the earth itself at the mantle((#1 REASON DRY OIL WELLS REPLENISH WHEN LEFT ALONE)) , 20% is dead vegetation..”OIL IS THE C00LING SYSTEM OF THE OUR PLANET” When all this oil is constantly being “SUCKED Out” the planet heats up, Hence Global Warming!Not to mention other contributing factors ..Imagine an ICE Car without a Cooling System????…….

      1. jerryd says:

        Well at least the last part of your name is correct evcarnut.
        Very little oil comes from non organic sources.
        And oil fields ‘fill back up’ because the oil that is already there finally drains down so the well can pump it out.
        As far as the article no EV’s won’t have any measurable cut in oil demand for a decade, even if they were 20% of sales now.
        Though in the long run they will rule, I’ve been driving them 23 yrs now, as they in 5 yrs will cost less even in the lowest cost cars and only 20% of a gas car to run.
        With 200 mile range long trips are easy with 10-15 minute charging in just a few yrs means EV’s that do will sell as fast as they build them at a reasonable price.
        As EV’s are so simply to design, build likely many more car makes will be produced especially if they make DOT easier to comply with like making tests instead of specs that keep companies like BYD, local start ups out of our market.

        1. Ocean Railroader says:

          The way oil demand from what I have been readying doesn’t need tens of millions of electric cars to really kill oil demand. In that the oil market is really sensitive to there being short falls of only a million barrels and less. Such as this great drop in oil prices is being made by a one to two million barrel a day extra oil and not a ten or twenty million a day extra supply.

          In fact Russia and OPEC are talking about cutting global output by 5%. Granted If Tesla where to built hundreds and hundreds of giant super charger complexes like the twenty stall one they are building in California a cut in oil output wouldn’t matter.

          1. jerryd says:

            While true Ocean, this is a shortage of demand problem because the world economy sucks and ours only fair.
            As it gets better, demand will easily suck up that little 2% surplus bring us back to $80+ oil in just 2 yrs.
            And even if the economy doesn’t recover natural oil decline is 5%/yr and needs that much new oil just to keep supply the same which hasn’t been done.
            And even after prices go up oil will have a hard time raising money to increase production.

          2. Bill Howland says:

            Russia and Saudi Arabia aren’t that close these days, since Russia is fighting ISIS et al, and SA is funding it.

            I’m distrustful of what I read in the Wall Street Journal opinion pages, but even the article in Wednesday’s WSJ re: LNG from the Gulf of Mexico to the former Soviet Satelites displacing $0.46 kwh Gazprom natural gas has an innocent error. They must mean $.46 per therm, since the article stated the US cost of gas, including the liqification, shipping, and regasification would end up costing $.36 ‘per kwh’ (they say $360 per MWH, the same thing), when they are overstating all these prices by a factor of 29.3. (1 kwh = 3413 BTU, 1 Therm = 100,000 BTU)

            It was either an innocent mistake such as I occasionally make, that will be corrected in the coming days, or else they hired a new reporter who can’t count.

      2. Speculawyer says:

        Oh please. Spare us the abiotic oil conspiracy theory.

        1. RexxSee says:

          What about Saturn’s moon TITAN full of it??
          It seems that the conspiracy is on the side of Big Oil, beginning in the ’50s only.

          1. Speculawyer says:

            Various hydrocarbons do form from natural processes. Especially methane.

            But big oil deposits? Those are from biotic origins.

            1. RexxSee says:

              Rivers, Oceans of oil, tar mud fields, etc..

                1. Speculawyer says:

                  Yes, that link supports my view:

                  “At a balmy minus 179 degrees Celsius (minus 290 degrees Fahrenheit), Titan is a far cry from Earth. Instead of water, liquid hydrocarbons in the form of methane and ethane are present on the moon’s surface”

                  Methane & Ethane are the smallest hydrocarbons. 1 & 2 Carbon atoms, respectively. They are gases on earth. But the long hydrocarbon chains that make up conventional crude oil rarely occur naturally.

                  1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

                    Thank you for posting some actual facts, Speculawyer.

                    Seriously, the abiotic oil pseudoscience-cum-conspiracy theory??

                    Well, science isn’t for everyone. Real science, that is.

      3. Bill Howland says:

        Evcarnut, was your expertise in the oil exploration part of the business? If so, I have a few questions.

    2. Speculawyer says:

      Yes, that is very true. Lots of whiners will try to point to Saudi Arabia but Saudi Arabia’s oil production increase was MUCH smaller that the increase in production from the USA.

      We had cheap capital and Wall Street invested a ton of it into tar sands and Shale. And the current financial market gloominess is really due to banks and bond funds that are holding a LOT of debt & equity in oil related companies that are now in the toilet. A lot of debt that is going to be defaulted on.

  3. Alan says:

    I read the Bloomberg article a couple of hours ago and noticed that they currently have the price per kWh at somewhere around $350, given the fact we pretty much know LG Chem is charging Chevy around $145 p kWh and Tesla’s gigafactory aiming for somewhere in the region of $100 over the next 4 years +, we can pretty much surmise that the uptake in EV’s are going to be somewhat north of their predictions.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

    It’s going to be a slippery slope for oil !

    1. evcarnut says:

      From your lips to God’s ears , this has been long 0verdue, these Demons deserve their “just Due” & never too soon…

      1. AlanSqB says:

        As much as I love to hear all this, I kind of want this all to remain “stealth” for a while longer. Make sure that the demise of the Oil Business is inevitable before they even fully wake up.

        They will go down fighting and it won’t be fair and it will be ugly.

        1. Ocean Railroader says:

          They are already fighting like mad going after solar power companies. Also the low oil prices is triggering massive upheaval in a lot of the OPEC nations as they have to phase out subsisted for almost free fuel for their populations.

          1. TomArt says:

            Yep, for whatever else they are, they are clever businessmen, at least in the short-term. The fossil fuel industries have been increasing their lobbying efforts and legislative attacks – they even beat solar in Nevada, of all places, where there is tons of usable sunshine.

            My only short-term consolation is that, in the oil markets, the low prices are making the really nasty extraction practices unprofitable – arctic drilling, tar sands, etc.

            1. Loboc says:

              Made me chuckle. “…tons of usable sunshine.”

              Weighing ‘a ton’ of photons and the resultant electrons would be an effort. They don’t weigh a lot.

              1. Heisenberght says:

                I very roughly guesstimate that Nevada has several gigatons of free photons available per day. In fact I like that idea of measuring sunshine using a weight unit. (as long as it is si) Si-Li-Con.com.gov.org.evcarnut.sec.bot.ounce.freedom

                Let the sun shine (it makes oil appear more renewable…)

            2. Speculawyer says:

              It was not fossil fuel that killed solar in Nevada. It was the utility, the public utility commission, and corruption that killed solar PV there. Perhaps some fossil fuel interests contributed but they were not the main players.

          2. Speculawyer says:

            The oil companies are not attacking solar PV, the utilities are. They are the ones that lose customers. Oil doesn’t compete with solar (except in tiny fringe cases).

            The oil companies are going to start attacking electric cars though. The Koch Brothers have already geared up for it as the Musk tweet noted.

      2. scott franco says:

        EvcarNUT,

        They have drugs now that will help you. Really.

        Listen to the voices in your head…..

        1. Heisenberght says:

          I recently choose to follow evcarnuts example. I somehow prefer his weirdness over nay nay say nay say. Without crazy there is no hazy. No hazy no progress. Just stay steady state storage. Tesla crazy guy was back to the future. Crazy Nikolai feeding the dove. Peace and love for all. Drugs don’t work no more. Superpowers flex their wings hold the world on puppet strings. Let the sun shine in your heart.

          Smile while you are falling. OPEC should start to sing. You sing a song and we sing along.

          No more war. Standards standards uniform. Uniform for unicorn. Fair to the fairy.

          Stop promoting drugs. Stop promoting oil.

          Power to the people. Solar to the people.

          Nay they say! NSA!

          MIT.GOOGLE.COM

          All people supporting EV solar or other drug free living are crazy nuts and should be set on drugs.

          Stupidity is infinite.

          Everything (including oil) will replenish. Just human short sight ego centric viewer can not see. Human species sucks lost in time. Travel in 3D is so old school.

          We are one. We are free! We are heading for obscurity…

    2. TomArt says:

      The most reasonable and informed speculation back in 2014 was that Tesla’s costs were no higher than $200/kWh at the cell level at the time. The full-scale GF will bring that under $100, I would imagine.

      1. jerryd says:

        Tom, Musk recently said his was significantly cheaper than LG’s $145/kwhr which I think mean to be about $125/kwhr

    3. Josh says:

      You are talking about cell level costs, the article is talking about pack level costs.

      Tesla won’t hit $100/pack for awhile, more like 2025. $100/kWh pack level would make an 85 kWh vehicle (like Model S) $25k. That is not Gen 3, that would be Gen 4.

  4. Boukman says:

    With renewable energy prices falling, electric cars getting better and cheaper, and regulatory pressure increasing everywhere, there is a perfect storm brewing for the oil industry.

  5. We now have two plug-in cars and will never go back. We can charge from the sun and never use a drop of oil.

    1. Anti Lord Kelvin says:

      Your situation it’s a dream for more and more people who are fed up with fossil fuels industry, their industrial allies such as monopolistic utilities and traditional car makers, not to speak about their political allies. But, eventually all the progresses in electric cars, batteries and renewable distributed energy sources will end up to be a killing nightmare for all these so greedy and awful people/corporations.

  6. manbitesgas says:

    We’re already past peak oil: in DEMAND. Nobody talks about that. Everyone is so focused on supply, they forget what Amory Lovins from RMI has been preaching for years now: we will get off of fossil fuels because it will be cheaper to leave it in the ground. I suspect the oild business will die right around the time the Koch bros. Good riddance!

    1. ffbj says:

      I think that been overlooked too. The demand side. Here is my basic thesis:

      As a result of the oil shock and resultant $4.00+ gas price of 2008, and the ensuing great recession a new paradigm in regards to car ownership and operation developed. The shift in sentiment resulted in behavioral changes, namely, people drove less.
      1. Younger people started questioning the economic sense of owning a car even if they could afford one. Services like Uber and Lyft developed to fill the niche of the need to still transport those people.
      2. Baby Boomers began to retire in droves, or never went back too work at all. Thus the big drop in miles driven. They continue to retire quietly and their gas consumption falls dramatically, by about two-thirds, in retirement.
      3. As happened in the past oil began to recover as the economy did, at least in the U.S. Meanwhile, around the world, other economies still languished in China demand began to slacken. Demand falls worldwide.
      4. Not willing to lose market share, the Saudi’s continued to pump oil at high rates and refused to listen to the cries of other OPEC members to curtail production.

      There are other factors such as Iran coming back, Iraq increasing production and of course vehicles that use much less gas, or none at all.
      That brings us up to the current state of affairs in general.

      The Future:
      As I said in the past Oil will dance to the
      jig the Saudi’s pipe. I would amend that to say lately they have been piping a dirge. The death of oil.
      Even if they decided to lower production, but as recently as few days ago, they said, they had no plans to do so. To the Houston oil men they said, in regard to low oil prices, basically: the mean old sheriff is back in town and if you don’t like it you can leave.
      So I see oil low for a long time as long as the Saudi’s stick to their guns.
      Contango will not work, (storing oil in tankers waiting for the price to rise).
      Storage will remain at record levels as tank draw down will be replaced immediately.
      There will be bankruptcies in the oil patch eventually, but this will have little effect on supply.
      Demand will not return to levels predicted by the oil producing countries nor will it increase to even higher levels, as they speculate it will, in the future.

      When oil/gas actually is not used as the main motive fuel to run cars the Kochs will have been long dead. By 2035 I think evs will be >50% of new vehicle sales and phev’s > 30%, leaving 20% or so for gas and other alternative fueled vehicles.

      Just an overview, not a critical analysis.

      1. Alan says:

        I think the only thing stoking demand levels currently is global population growth, without that, oil would already be in the shi**er !

        1. super390 says:

          It’s not overall population growth. It’s growth in the middle classes of a few countries that are making some progress. Ironically, the creation of some margin of survival in countries like China and India allows women to get educations, and for the creation of pension systems, which destroys the incentive to crank out babies. So many 3rd-world countries are now flattening out birth rates. But the worst-off countries may not be. Africa’s still-exploding population won’t be buying a lot of cars soon, though oil will be needed for other things.

          1. Mister G says:

            Dangerous air pollution in China and India might push middle class to buy EVs instead of gas guzzlers.

      2. TNT says:

        I like your analysis but demand is still increasing. It just isn’t increasing at the levels they had predicted. I think it will increase for several years. We’ll see what happens when the price of oil recovers somewhat in a couple of years.

        1. TomArt says:

          ffbj is spot-on regarding the USA, but yes, global demand is still increasing. Annual global vehicle sales are still increasing, though thankfully, most countries don’t share the USA’s love affair with the hulking guzzlers (SUVs and pickups).

        2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          @TNT

          That’s my understanding, too: That demand for oil is going down in first-world countries, due to government mandates for better fuel efficiency in cars and trucks; but that this is more than offset by exponentially increasing demand in countries which are rapidly industrializing, such as China and India.

          Global demand for oil has peaked? No, not yet.

          http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Global-Crude-Demand.png?00cfb7

    2. Speculawyer says:

      I don’t know if we have hit peak demand yet. Maybe if EVs really take off or if the price of oil shoots up high again.

      But at current EV prices and current oil prices . . . I think oil demand will go up. Of course that increased demand will eventually cause a price rise and that could be the peak. But who knows? We could have the ‘undulating plateau’ that has been theorized.

  7. artur says:

    200mpg on my 2014 volt… can’t wait for the bolt.

    1. Stephen says:

      211mpg on my Volt. 80% drop compared to my last commuter car. Can’t wait for a decent and affordable PHEV AWD CUV to replace the family hauler.

      1. mike w says:

        just checked my 2016 Volt this morning 250+ mpg.

  8. Ambulator says:

    “Sooner than you think.”

    Not sooner than many here think, but this is a site for true believers. We’re ready.

    1. Loboc says:

      Read Tony Seba.

      He thinks these predictions are all short sighted. Full on disruption of personal transport and energy by 2030!

      1. HeisenberghtNUTS says:

        Make that 2020.

        Do not under estimate your power!

        Spread the word!

        Visit new places!

        Multiply propaganda!

        Take the power back! Fear is the reason for all bad.

        Visit future in your dream. 2020 was a nicer place than you will think.

        Travel logic. Car is old school. Teach a good time. Have fun!

        Nay they say! CIA!

  9. goodbyegascar says:

    Well, these will be just some of the consequences of the EV revolution that I have pondered since I was a teenager, almost forty years ago.

    Back in the late 1970s, it was enough to simply imagine a “someday” electric car that could go zero-to-sixty in 12 seconds, and still have a 100-mile range. Never mind that it would have taken 36 hours to charge the lead-acid batteries. And they would need full replacement every two years, etc.

    I was reminded so many times since then that it’s okay to dream, so long as I understand not to take these things seriously.

    And now, in the year 2016, electric cars are serious business, with serious consequences.

    I couldn’t be happier.

    1. HeisenberghtNUTS says:

      Live your dreams!

      Never take anything serious!

      Tell everyone, the future is now!

      Go buy what it’s good! Do good! Don’t be evil! Don’t be afraid! You need nothing to be free! Take your time! Back! Forward forever backwards never!

  10. TomArt says:

    And the downside of this article is…? Temporary geopolitical upheaval? Isn’t that what we already have now?

  11. Jake Brake says:

    Whats the US military going to do with all its spare time if we arent spreading democracy in oil producing regions of the world? Norway will soon be LoL’ing at the rest of the world. They save all their dirty oil money and invest is education instead of blow it on ferrari cop cars.

    1. Rich says:

      When the USA stops exporting $1 billion / day in oil revenues and stops dumping trillions of dollars in wars and “security”, our economy will explode (in a positive way). Remind me again which politician is running on this platform? 😉

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Well, the U.S. could stop most of its military spending — the majority of it, which is not actually needed for national defense — and use the savings to end deficit spending and balance the federal budget.

      But no! That would be much too wise, much too fiscally responsible, and much too forward-thinking. We “must” keep on our insane course of profligate deficit spending, while supporting a military which is so large and so wasteful that we have to keep using it to start wars which make us less safe than we were before!

      (Down off my soapbox… for now.)

      1. HeisenberghtNUTS says:

        Never blame anyone!

        Not even the government!

        Every person could stop spending their money on useless stuff and invest that money into future! Most people don’t.

        A state is just the sum of the people.

        It is in your hands to do good!

        Fear is the only reason for fighting. Really fearless people is what the world needs! No fear no tear! No more war!

        Do good! Every day! You are the one! If you blame others you will just lose your power! Power to the people! Take your power back!

        Be free! No drugs! No war! Solar! Peace brother!

  12. Every peak oil analyst in the last 50 years have been proven to be wrong. This will just be the next one.

    Oil demand will continue to grow by developing nations and world population growth.
    The worldwide EV market share is 0% and a few hundred thousand rich cars will change nothing.

    1. Speculawyer says:

      No, not really. Certainly many were too early.

      But the big miss was the rise of nonconventional oil. Conventional liquid oil had a peak around 2005. Nonconventional oil (tar sands oil, tight oil from fracked shale deposits, and very deepwater oil) have taken up the slack.

      But at current prices, the nonconventional oil is not profitable such that frackers are going bankrupt left & right. As soon as the glut is burned off, the prices will rise back up to a level to support the restarting fracking & tar sands.

    2. goodbyegascar says:

      Counter-Strike Cat,

      A few hundred thousand electric cars has already changed everything.

      Automakers around the globe have already rushed to change their product pipelines to include plug-ins of almost every variety. It already proves that yesterday’s trickle of electric cars will become the next big gusher.

      But a few dozen comments made online from an EV denier will change nothing. The “Inside EVs” website proves that every day..

    3. Anon says:

      If BEVs were not a threat to the fossil fuel industry / moguls, they wouldn’t be gearing up for a social, political & legal assault on them…

      And we already know they have been.

    4. jerryd says:

      CSCat, you don’t have a clue.
      First there were only 2, both by the head of Shell Oil exploration unit.
      First in 58 predicted US oil peak in 1973 which happened.
      Next was world crude oil peak which was about 5 yrs ago.
      What was also predicted as crude oil started running out as a whole class, light sweet oil, has already been pumped out, is unconventional oil like tight oil, oil sands, etc because as the price rose they because viable.
      So before posting such drivel, at least know what you are ranting about.

    5. super390 says:

      And then the methane clathrate formations in the oceans will boil away and we will all die, like 90% of all species did the last time it happened, and for a hundred million years the Earth will be a relative wasteland.

      So now what do we do?

    6. HeisenberghtNUTS says:

      Counter strike cat

      If you ain’t a bot.
      Please stop working a lot.

      If you ain’t a cat.
      Please stop being fat.

      What in the world happened to you?

      Once you were happy, once you could smile.
      Now you have been saying nay nay nay quite for a while.

      If you ain’t a bot.
      Please stop working a lot.

      Maybe you earn money a lots.
      But maybe you end up being evcarnuts.

      Don’t ask a llama for peace of your mind, it will spit in your face and that’s not very kind.

      You counter and count.
      And that is nothing.

      Enjoy your life.

      Go out look at the world! Have you ever seen a bird?
      Maybe you think I’m weird but no I’m just wired.

      Open your eyes. There still it is. The world in its beauty. Take from nature a kiss!

      Life is Love and love is life. Maybe you lost that on your way.

      Go sing with the birds!

      Talk to the people. Be nice! Be honest! Be good. A human.

      If you ain’t a bot.
      Stop working a lot.

      Smile!

  13. Bill Howland says:

    It all depends on the price of the batteries. Cell phones didn’t take off until batteries got lighter and cheaper. Color Tv’s used to cost as much as a used car, but now people have several since they’re almost free.

    Not worried about sufficient fast chargers here, since, if batteries are light and cheap enough, I won’t need a public charger at all (assuming a cheap 1000 mile battery is available).

    And my home charger doesn’t have to grow. It merely has to be slightly bigger than the average number of miles in my daily drive to catch up on the recharge.

    Others such as traveling salesmen will continue to need 20 kw chargers at home, due to the several hundred miles they drive per day.

    1. Loboc says:

      The last TV I bought was $1000. However, it was wifi enabled, 4k capable and HUGE.

      Ya don’t need a 1,000mi battery to drive 40miles a day.

      Ya don’t need a very big charger since that 40-miles of range only takes 4 hours @ 220v. Ya got over 10 to do it. Unless ya work more than 40hrs/wk.

      Traveling salesmen are as obsolete as gas cars. Everyone buys things online today. Including jet and car parts. The only sales guys that show up at my residence are selling services, not ‘things’.

      1. Bill Howland says:

        You can spend what you want on Tv’s. It is the HEIGHT of arrogance to tell me what I “need”.

        If it wasn’t for people like me buying a 250 mile range car for my first ev, Tesla wouldn’t have gotten off the ground. When they came out 8 years ago, I suppose you told them they didn’t “need” it either.

        1. HeisenberghtNUTS says:

          The purpose of a TV is to tell people what they need.

          (besides from keeping them busy, stupid, voiceless prisoners Lockheed in their living rooms. Scared to death to leave their home, state, country, planet, time, mind)

          People who spend money for a “tell me what I need device” will want to tell other people what they need.

          People tell people what they need because mothers tell kids what they need. Put on your jacket. Eat your f kin vitamins. Take your Ritalin. Shut the hell up! You need to sit still.

          Don’t be mad at anyone.

          All we need is love!

    2. Speculawyer says:

      Yes, it really depends on the battery prices. And that’s why whoever comes up with a cheap good battery chemistry or figures out how to make current battery chemistries cheaply will be a hero. Hence all the research efforts and the Gigafactory.

      But seems like we are almost there. If we really are at $145/KWH and we make it to $100/KWH, I think EVs are really going to take off.

    3. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Bill Howland said:

      “It all depends on the price of the batteries. Cell phones didn’t take off until batteries got lighter and cheaper. Color Tv’s used to cost as much as a used car, but now people have several since they’re almost free.”

      Yup. The article mentions “the ‘S Curve’ of new disruptive technology adoption”, when EV sales will go into sustained year-on-year exponential growth of sales.

      That’s something I’ve mentioned several times in posts to InsideEVs. Unfortunately, there’s no way to tell just when that’s going to happen. And until it does, EVs won’t have a significant impact on global oil demand.

      If EVs are currently having an impact on the price of oil futures, and I’m not at all convinced that is happening, then it’s merely the anticipation of what the future impact on demand will be when EV sales really take off.

      1. HeisenberghtNUTS says:

        It all depends on you!

  14. scott franco says:

    “EV adoption is not linear, but will accelerate”.

    Gee, have only been saying this for 5 years now here (go look).

    1. ModernMarvelFan says:

      Occasionally, it will take a small step back too…

      *cough 2015 cough*….

      1. Anti Lord Kelvin says:

        Not if you speak about the all world market that have accelerate in 2015.

  15. Chris says:

    The oil age will not end for a lack of oil just like the stone age did not end for a lack of stones.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      But the age of whale oil did end for lack of easily caught whales. Similarly, the end of cheaply exploitable sources of petroleum will certainly be one of the biggest factors, if not the biggest factor, bringing the age of petroleum to an end.

      It’s true that peak oil (and don’t forget, that means peak production, not peak demand) has not yet arrived, despite repeated predictions. Fracking has put off the date of peak oil for several years. But it’s inevitable that it will happen not far in the future.

      Switching from whale oil to kerosene was put off for some years, too, by the whalers switching from sperm whales to bowhead whale and right whales. But eventually the sources of easily caught whales ran low, just as the known sources of cheap petroleum are running low.

      Let’s keep in mind that what has made fracking economically viable is the end of easily drilled “light sweet crude” sources. Fracking wouldn’t be affordable if cheap petroleum had not already run low.

  16. super390 says:

    1. The price of oil is largely a political artifact and war, specifically the war in Syria, is dictating Saudi Arabia’s production. The claims of a production agreement with Russia are good news for humanity in general because it means the warlike Saudi monarchy is getting scared about what it’s marching into.
    2. The theory that the Saudis are also acting to bankrupt our fracking industry is also possible; as long as #1 is going on we can’t prove it. But more and more articles are surfacing about how many fracking companies are on the verge of debt default, and the stories themselves have the power to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. I’ve already seen a report of a company refusing to comply with Oklahoma’s new anti-earthquake regulations on the grounds that this will finish it off. The earthquake issue will spread around the world, and strangle fracking even though the earthquakes are caused by wastewater disposal and not the fracking process itself.
    3. Now here’s the bad news. The USA will get the worst of both worlds. We will get the higher oil prices from the Saudi-Russia deal, but we will also get the fracking sector collapse from the inability to get caught up on their debt – unless they get bailed out. We have the perfect political moment now to resist a bailout, but that means having the collapse pull down the whole economy.