Navigant: Plug-In Electric Vehicles To Account For Half Of Predicted 6 Million Electrified Vehicle Sales By 2024

2 years ago by Inside EVs Staff 34

Navigant Outlook Graphic

Navigant Outlook Graphic

According to Navigant Research, between 5.8 and 6.4 million electrified vehicles will be sold globally in 2024. That figure includes conventional hybrids that don’t plug in, but if we look at Navigant’s prediction for plug-ins, we see that they’ll account for approximately half of that total 6 million-ish figure. Navigant seems to be coming around to plug-ins in its more recent reports.

As Green Car Congress reports on Navigant’s findings:

“In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., vehicles that use electricity for traction, including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electrics) will grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to more than 6.0 million in 2024.”

“Under a conservative scenario, Navigant forecasts more than 5.8 million electrified vehicles by 2024, while the aggressive scenario sees more than 6.4 million. Navigant estimates that sales of plug-in vehicles (PEVs) accounted for roughly 19% of electrified vehicle sales in 2015; in 2024, Navigant expects light duty PEVs to capture between 47% and 51% of the electrified vehicle market.”

Why so much growth on the plug-in front? According to Navigant, much of the growth will be due to countless plug-ins hitting the market between now and 2024.

Of course, prices will drop and output/range will increase over time too. Meanwhile, conventional hybrids have hit a high and their growth will either stop or diminish over time.

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34 responses to "Navigant: Plug-In Electric Vehicles To Account For Half Of Predicted 6 Million Electrified Vehicle Sales By 2024"

  1. RexxSee says:

    Hybrids are complicated expensive batraciens

    1. RexxSee says:

      … Batrachians rolled out to delay BEVs.
      The climate emergency requires we leapfrog 😉 those toxic emitters and jump to long range BEVs, as fast as we can.
      Hydrocarbons producers have to die if the rest of the living things wants to survive.

      1. ffbj says:

        I don’t get the reference to frogs. Is it that they are amphibians sort of a mixture like hybrids.

        1. Brian says:

          I think he wants to kill them all off, put them under a lot of pressure and in a few million years have more oil…. maybe

          1. sven says:

            I think RexxSee is biased against frogs, because he once kissed a frog and it didn’t turn into Elon Musk as he had hoped it would.

            1. ffbj says:

              Aah, thanks Sven and Brian for clearing that up.

                1. sven says:

                  I’m disappointed RexxSee. I was hoping that in the video above Elon “Leapfrog” Musk would show us his webbed feet and catch some flies with his tongue. 😉

                2. Bonaire says:

                  He is not the founder…

                  1. Martin Eberhard says:

                    +1

                  2. Marc Tarpenning says:

                    +1

                  3. Nikolas Tesla says:

                    =2

        2. Joe says:

          That’s funny, he drives a used Prius.

      2. JimGord says:

        Exactly !

  2. Greg says:

    The former Saudi oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, once warned his OPEC colleagues saying “The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones. It ended because we invented bronze tools, which were more productive.”

    The Saudi policy is to ‘sell, sell sell while we can regardless of price.’

    This does two things: it keeps the price low and thus delaying peak demand in oil and fills their coffers in anticipation of the day when oil is no longer the main energy source.

    But either way the days of the “Oil Age” are numbered. We won’t see the end of the dominance of oil in our life time but the end is neigh.

    1. Brian says:

      I kind of want to send them a fruit basket for stopping the North Sea drilling and cutting back a ton of shale slurry pump extraction.

      That being said, if they cut production by a little bit when told to they could have been making more money for less oil with how far the price has dropped.

    2. sven says:

      Money must be getting really tight in Saudi Arabia. Just yesterday, Saudi Arabia announced that it was considering an initial public offering (IPO) for its state-owned oil company Aramco (Saudi Arabian Oil Co.), the world’s largest oil producer.

      Aramco is “larger than the economies of most nations. . . . The company could be worth anything from $1 trillion to upwards of $10 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world, according to a note from Jason Tuvey at research firm Capital Economics. The last mega IPO from the oil industry was a decade ago, when Russia’s OAO Rosneft raised more than $10 billion.”

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-08/shock-laughter-greet-plan-for-saudi-arabian-sale-of-the-century

        1. ffbj says:

          Sort of hoist by their own petard.
          I will not be buying any, though I understand the reasoning of the ipo.

      1. Greg says:

        They see the writing on the wall and are bailing out. Their long therm strategy is to get out of oil without crashing the price too much.

    3. Bonaire says:

      Greg – people are not that interested to know that oil will basically run out this century. And as such, will not act to work a bit more responsibly to buy the type of car that they need now – they will wait until they must due to gasoline prices.

      Wouldn’t it be smarter to raise oil prices rather than try to pump it out of the ground as fast as possible by lowering its market price? The economy is like water – it goes the route of lease resistance. Most consumers buy used cars today and 99.9% are ICE. Then new car buyers are taking plug-ins at a rate of under 1%. This is not any sort of growth curve that gets the entire world fleet converted off of oil in any time soon – in fact if we do not see new cars reach 50% plug-in solutions by 2050, there is little hope that they will magically convert off of oil by 2100 for all new vehicles.

      We could use oil or H2 for range extenders and not require the build-up of all electrical generation. In some ways both the Tesla (huge battery) and the Volt (smart combo of EREV) are both ahead of their times. If we could get everyone into EREVs now, they would have far less of an impact on the grand scheme of electrical generation while still tripling or more their efficiency. Most people charging at home at night and driving an EREV during the day will hardly use any oil at all but do not have to get off oil entirely and the use of oil can be stretched for a very long time (hundreds of years). While doing that, figure out how to make H2 fuel cell extenders, propane extenders or some other engine at a cheaper cost. We have lots of natural gas and propane out there and that could also work as an extender technology.

  3. Jonathan says:

    I doubt it will be this extreme when we have a lot of 200mi EVs on the road in a couple years. This charts make sense when the average EV (aside from Tesla) is an 85mi range car.

  4. jerryd says:

    First Navigant/Pike has been so wrong in the past, like Lux too, feeding big auto what they want to hear.
    Next most all gas vehicles will be ‘hybrid’ as the starter, alternator, motor, drives, flywheel into a single unit simply because it is cheaper, lighter, not more
    expensive than separate units, belt/gear drives by 2020, much less 2025.
    What they are doing is building a case to charge more even though it costs less.
    Same the way they still claim EV batteries cost 2x’s what they do until GM recently spilled the beans showing Pike/Navigant-Lux had been lying.
    EV’s will also be going up much faster than the graph as by 2020 it’ll be very clear EV’s cost less to buy and much less to
    run.
    Back over $4-5/gal fuel will be the kicker.

    1. ffbj says:

      A reasonable recapitulation.

      1. ffbj says:

        Though with the caveat that it should quite a while, perhaps years, before we see $4 gas again.

        1. jerryd says:

          ffbj $4/gal is coming much faster than most think.
          The low oil price has slowed drilling well under the needed natural decline replacement rate of 4%/yr vs only a 2% surplus.
          So at most 3 yrs and likely 2 yrs gas will be over $4/gal.
          Fact is many different black swans like SA ands Iran being stupid, could put it there in weeks.

  5. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    I guess whether or not the hybrid segment of the market grows or not, depends on the definition of “hybrid” that anyone happens to choose.

    We will certainly see continued growth of micro-hybrids; gasmobiles with stop/start tech, using a beefed-up alternator/generator and either a larger starter battery or a small battery pack. I’m not sure what jerryd means when he says all that will be combined with a “motor”, but certainly there is an advantage to using that in place of a regular starter motor, in a car with stop-start tech.

    As far as the “accuracy” of predictions by Navigant, Lux, etc… I wonder if the InsideEVs editors just post these things to give us something to laugh at. 😉

    What would be even more fun is to overlay a graph of Navigant’s last prediction of the same thing, and see how wildly they differ.

    1. Mr. M says:

      yes, please post past predictions compared with actual sales number!

  6. JimGord says:

    I think that Navigant is wrong about the “faux electrics” (HEVs).

    With more PHEVs and 200-mile BEVs now entering the market, the expectation would be the HEV sales will flatten off earlier and not have an exponential spurt.

    A more important metric is the separate curves for BEV and PHEV and forget the imposters (HEVs)

    If the biosphere and 30% of the world’s species are to have any chance, the acceleration of BEVs has got to pick up and retain exponentiality after 2020 – which is another reason the Navigant projections are probably wrong – again

  7. Lars says:

    FCV bränsleceller är framtidens bilar.

  8. Bonaire says:

    Without electrification of light-duty trucks and CUVs, we are going nowhere. I want all of the USPS and range-bound daily-duty trucks to become electric. They put on 40,000 miles a year in each. CUVs fill our roads in the USA daily. Pickup-trucks are also a very strong need for electrification while also being strong enough for the duty we put them through. Once we get such vehicles on the road – they won’t need to be cycled every 7-10 years (crushed and replaced when the value drops to near zero and the engines don’t work well). Electric vehicles should be able to out-last ICE vehicles if built right.

    But remember – such a transition does affect and change our world economy. Our stock market itself is dropping mainly due to oil money falling and being pulled out of markets by nations’ wealth funds. If we understand that cutting resources is a good thing and that for a better longevity of the planet and sustainability it is important to do, maybe we can get consumers to participate and not just point at the gas prices and say “look, why do I need to do anything?”

  9. Todd Ritter says:

    Wake up BOD and HOA property managers , EVS are here and coming , we will need to charge our cars in our parking stall spaces , that we pay high maintenance fees for……

  10. Pete Bauer says:

    Last year Toyota alone sold 1.2 million Hybrids and Honda must have sold another 300,000 Hybrids. If all other companies have sold 200,000 Hybrids, that makes a total of 1.7 million Hybrids.

    Now add the 500,000 Electric & Plugin vehicles sold and that’s a total of 2.2 million vehicles (BEV, PEV & HEV).

    If in 2015, 2.2 million such vehicles were sold, then in 2024 (9 years from now), there will be just 6 million. This seems to be a very conservative estimate.

    The rate at which the Chinese market is ballonning, definitely 10 million mark will be easy.

  11. Yves says:

    Those market analysis firms have issues with the notion of disruptive technologies. From 2014 to 2015, including what I found on other websites about sales in other countries, the growth is at least of 60% (520k/320k) and I am missing many countries. If 2016 continues at the same pace, sales could hit 850k in 2016 if not more. Look at their projections for 2016, the top estimate seems to be under 750k.