Most New Nissan LEAF Sales Likely To Be 30 kWh Version

2 years ago by Mark Kane 23

Nissan LEAF registrations in UK (cumulative)

Nissan LEAF registrations in UK (cumulative)

2016 Nissan LEAF

2016 Nissan LEAF

Based on Nissan LEAF sales in UK, we predict that most of new sales of LEAF will be the 30 kWh (107 miles / 172 km of EPA range) version, instead of 24 kWh model.

This forecast takes into account the fact that the 30 kWh battery will not be available in Visia trim (only offered in the higher Acenta and Tekna) or S in the North America (only SV or SL).

One would ask why? Well, consumers are often willing to pay more to buy higher-trimmed, better-equipped versions and the 30 kWh battery costs £1,600 (less than $2,500) more than the 24 kWh in the most popular Acenta and Tekna trims in UK.

If we check the graph, we see four Nissan LEAF curves – blue one is the only trim available in Europe for original LEAFs imported from Japan. Their registration number peaked at the end of 2013 and then decreased (for various reasons some cars we later unregistered).

In 2013, Nissan introduced the refreshed LEAF produced locally in Sunderland, UK available in three trims – Visia, Acenta and Tekna. As it turns out, not much more than 500 base Visia and Visia+ were sold through the end of Q2 2015.

Most all the sales have come from the better-equipped Acenta and Tekna versions (equivalent of original LEAF).

If well above 90% of consumers in the UK opt for higher-trim LEAFs, and now we can add one of the most important option of the 30 kWh battery for £1,600, how do you think sales will pan out? Highly in favor of the 30 kWh LEAF is what the numbers suggest.

The only question is whether a similar scenario will play out in other markets.

Source: How Many Left?

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23 responses to "Most New Nissan LEAF Sales Likely To Be 30 kWh Version"

  1. TimE says:

    Looking at Leaf inventory in Colorado – I’m frustrated seeing that about 25 to 30% of 2016 models are the S. That extra range makes a big difference in confidence, and is worth the extra money (traded in my 2013 Leaf for a 2016 SL about 2 weeks ago).

    My advice to dealers – keep a bare minimum of the S – go with 10% S, 60% SV, and 30% SL.

    1. jerryd says:

      I agree. The 107 mile range version opens up new customers as will the future much high range versions.
      The sweet spot is about 120-130 miles for a city car and 200-240 miles in a highway trip car.
      Both allow enough extra to cover weather, surprise trips, etc without worrying about range.
      Though 80 miles does too for most people but that extra will bring many more into
      EV’s.
      Fact is the $7500 tax credit pays for 50kwhr, 170-200 miles of battery pack so why do EV’s cost more than a gas car
      even now?
      And why don’t EV’s have much more range as it is already paid for?

  2. Fastcharge says:

    How can you find dealer allocation of 30 kWh Leaf’s in the U.S.?

  3. David Murray says:

    This seems to agree with the recent story about BMW selling more Rex than BEV.. I’m sure it is for the same reason. When you are talking about such a small amount of extra money for more range, people will pay it.

  4. ModernMarvelFan says:

    Not surprised since range is always a concern for most buyers.

    1. SparkEV says:

      True about range, but far bigger benefit of 30kWh is DCFC speed; it’s almost as fast as SparkEV.

  5. Moshe says:

    I just got my 2015 Leaf, 3 months ago. I am already thinking of trading it to the 30kw. That said, my Leaf satisfies all my needs, for now. I think it is just a temptation. Going 20-30 miles is nice, but it’s not going to let you go on really long trips. Check out my Leaf videos.https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCaFJV34giQ7jkYf34WlSkog/videos

    1. David Murray says:

      You say that.. but I’ve often wondered about the possibility of driving our Leaf from Ft.Worth to Austin. It is technically possible, although most of the way is L2 charging only. However, the 30Kwh version of the Leaf would actually make this trip much easier and if there were perhaps 3 Chademo stations between Ft.Worth and Austin, it would actually be a fairly easy trip to make.

      1. Epicurus says:

        Right. And if you want to drive from FW to Midland, you are SOL.

        If we want clean air (and less GHG emission), the government should be funding the build out of fast charging stations on the highways and interstates at least.

  6. David Schurig says:

    I don’t quite understand the logic of the third paragraph. I think the simple reason the 30kWhr battery is only offered in the higher trim package is that Nissan will make more money that way. It’s the same reason cable TV providers bundle very desirable channels with a bunch of crap you would not otherwise subscribe to.

    Side note: I like what Nissan is doing in the EV market, whereas I think cable TV providers are dirt bags.

    1. Priusmaniac says:

      That is too bad since range may be really needed for less buying power people. The 30 KWh battery should be available starting on the lowest level of equipment.

  7. Chip says:

    What is the retail price per kWh that Nissan is charging for the extra 6kWh?

    UK prices include VAT at 20%.
    £1600 x 100/120 @$1.50/£ = $2000.
    $2000 for an extra 6kWh is $333/kWh.

    So $333 per kWh plus local sales tax or VAT.

    1. G. Jumper says:

      Not worth paying extra for 6 killowatts. The 30 kwh leaf will loose it’s value like the 24 kwh did just as soon as the tesla 3 hits the market and others like it hit the market. A couple more kwh and it’s history for the old timers unless you make battery upgrading plug and play

      1. Tesla send their paid agents again. Model 3 is vaporware product.

        1. Robb Stark says:

          Another paid agent of shorting hedge fund manager spreading anti-Tesla BS.

      2. Jonathan says:

        Totally agree. Its a good product, but if you do have to pay list price of $35K, even with rebates, its not worth it. However, I’m gonna keep my eye on the 2016 SV 30kwh leaf, because I think in about a year or so, when Bolt hits, and Tesla Model 3 has begun taking orders, you will likely see some killer deals on the 30kwh leaf because nobody will want them. If I can pick one up this time next year for $7-8K off, I’ll buy one for sure!

      3. mr. M says:

        Double charging speed and 6 kWh more might be worth it. Think of all the time that you save at chargers with the 30kWh version.

  8. mhpr262 says:

    Wouldn’t surprise me, the Tesla Model S with the 40kwh battery was scrapped because almost nobody wanted it.

    1. Priusmaniac says:

      That was a bit a missed opportunity to put a rex in that version, that would have met at a lot of other potential customers like the BMW i3 has proven.

      1. Robb Stark says:

        Putting Tesla in the ICE business would be grotesquely stupid and so would modifying the Tesla platform to accept ICE,exhaust pipes, catalytic converter,muffler etc.

  9. JackDFW says:

    US prices from Nissan web site

    S w/ charging $31,630 ($29,860 w/o pkg)
    SV $35,050
    SL $37,640

    So from S to SV is extra $3,420 for bigger battery and Navigation and Mobile Apps.

    Add $2,590 for upgrade to SL for leather and Automatic on/off LED low-beam headlights, fog lights, and heated rear seats ( my 2015 S has heated rear seats)

    I think having a cheaper S version is a good idea. I have a 6 mile one way commute so the smaller battery works for me and holds the cost down.

    But for new buyers the longer range is a great selling point. I almost bought a 2015 I-MIEV but after having a 2013 Leaf it was hard to go for a smaller battery.

  10. Jonathan says:

    Right now there are so many 2015 models on the lots (at amazing prices) that the dealers will not have a chance selling 2016 S models. Even as it stands right now, it would be tough to convince me to buy a 2016 SV or SL compared to what I could get a 2015 S for. One dealer in CA was willing to sell me a 2015 S w/QC for $24K out the door. That’s $14K after rebates.

    1. mr. M says:

      The 2016 models will sell once the remaining 2015 models are gone. Meaning in 1-2 months with inventory of roundabout 2000.