Lux Research Launches Electric Car Inflection Tracker

1 year ago by Mark Kane 32

Lux Research's EV Inflection Tracker

Lux Research’s EV Inflection Tracker

Chevrolet Bolt EV - Likely Only To Make A Big Impression In 2017

Chevrolet Bolt EV

Lux Research announced a new monitoring tool for the plug-in electric car market – the EV Inflection Tracker.

The idea is to forecast the time-frame when EVs will reach the Infection Point understood as more than 50% market share.

As of today Lux Research expects that to happen between 2035-2040. That’s three full model cycles worth of development and iteration.

“Following on from this, we’ve launched an EV Inflection Tracker, which analyzes how compelling automakers’ plug-in offerings are as a leading indicator of when EVs will be positioned to take over the automotive market. Lux Research defines the “EV Inflection Point” concept as the year range when plug-in cars (technically, both EVs and PHEVs) make up more than 50% of new car sales. We’re watching all the plug-in offerings but, most notably, for depth of competition in EVs with greater than 200 miles of driving range at a price point of $35,000 or less, around which time a significant acceleration of adoption can be expected. Given the lack of any vehicles, let alone a wide variety, that meets these criteria we’re far from the EV Inflection Point. In fact, in the 2016 edition of the Tracker, we estimate that the EV Inflection Point is in the 2035-2040 time-frame. This corresponds to three full model cycles worth of development and iteration: By then, for example, the Nissan Leaf will be in its fourth generation.”

The EV Inflection Tracker can be shown not only for the total car market but also for every segment.

Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S

Lux Research decided to check five categories and already found that luxury vehicles are doing the best, which is in-line with diffusion of innovations from high-end to broader low-end:

  • small cars
  • large cars
  • SUVs
  • pickup trucks
  • luxury vehicles

“This 2016 snapshot can be further broken down by vehicle type, to look beyond the EV vehicle fleet as a proportion of the total fleet, and into how many truly viable EVs there are in each segment. Looking at five classes – small cars, large cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and luxury vehicles – in terms of viable commercialized vehicles available as well as their track record, only luxury vehicles get a passing grade. However, these will fail to drive meaningful enough sales volumes for plug-ins as a whole. They do, however, represent the early incubators of technology that is too expensive for the mass market, making these OEMs important to watch for trickle-down innovations. At the opposite end of the spectrum, pickup manufacturers have done nothing to move the needle in terms of electrification, while in the middle there is some progress from the manufacturers of small and large cars. Overall, the automotive industry earns an overall failing grade of 27/100.

There is little doubt progress is being made, just as there is little doubt that EV proliferation is inevitable. While 2035 is a long time in the future, there are billions of dollars and market leadership at stake along that journey. The question is which automakers will take that lead by populating the +200/-35K sweet-spot.”

source: Lux Research via Green Car Congress

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32 responses to "Lux Research Launches Electric Car Inflection Tracker"

  1. Mike says:

    If the reaction of the luxury car makers is any indication I would guess it will occur much sooner. Tesla is already the number one large luxury sedan and the X may become the number one luxury SUV. If BMW, Audi, Benz all react by making plug-able luxury cars, then a plug becomes a status symbol. At that point an ICE car is only something you drive if you have to.

    Musk was a genius to build cool luxury cars first. You will never make something like an iMEV appealing to a broader audience, which makes broad-scale adoption really unlikely.

    1. jerryd says:

      Not only that but all Tesla gas competition has dropped sales in it’s class while the S grew 61%!!
      Lux has never been right I’ve seen and always put out info big auto wants out there like EV’s and batteries were much higher priced than they were.
      Back 7 yrs ago I was buying both EV quality small cells Tesla was using then, Panasonic stock cells, and large format cells retail for 20-30% less than they were saying OEM wholesale
      prices were!!
      Pike/Navigant do the same so I never trust either as obviously biased in the auto, other industries favor.
      Likely the 50% point as they define it will come at least 5 yrs earlier.
      Since by 2025 gasoline will have no advantage in cars and oil cost will rise as oil slides down the aft side of the oil production bell curve, why would anyone buy one.

  2. HeisenberghtNUTS says:

    35K.200milestones.3.coincidence

    Useless numbers 0.27

    Who is this lux? Must be a smart Luchs… Fox. Animal. Nuts!

  3. Stimpacker says:

    Looks like Cosmin is learning to change his rhetoric and going for more general predictions that are far less likely to backfire.

  4. RexxSee says:

    This is disinformation to delay the EV era.

  5. ffbj says:

    I have an inflection point for Lux, it is between my ring and pointer finger, which are retracted to the first knuckle of said finger.

  6. KM says:

    If the cost of EVs really goes down to match ICE cars in about 2024 as some predict than China, Japan and most of Europe will most likely ban sales of new ICE cars in about 12-14 years. Add a decent penetration of EVs and PHEVS in the remaining markets and this could be reached before 2030. Having said that we would need 100 gigafactories to get there. That’s quite a challenge…

    1. jerryd says:

      KM, that will happen by 2020 as lithium hits $100/kwhr.
      As for 100 GF’s yes but they already have about 8 planned and can add them
      as needed.
      There is no material shortage and the materials are rather cheap, common so that isn’t a problem.

  7. Texas FFE says:

    Discussing production cycles in the EV market reflects the maturity of the market. Just a short time ago we were discussing the viability of electric vehicles and now we are discussing EV production cycles. I find the discussion encouraging.

  8. pvwowk says:

    They must be ignoring phevs. I’m sure if th3y include those, they’ll be 50% market share by 2025. Maybe sooner.

    The thing that gets me is when people start driving a lot of EVs (like 50% market share), ICEs will be really undesirable. Especially when gas stations start to close due to lack of demand.

    1. jerryd says:

      pvwork, by the time 2025 comes around the math/costs will be so much higher for gas cars along with high gasolie prices while lithium will be under $75/kwhr, people and businesses will have a hard time justifying a gas car.
      Plus there likely will be swappable 50lb, 100kwhr+ primary batteries at least at about grid electricity cost/kwhr to power homes and as REx for low range EV’s or
      semi’s.
      Times are going to change much faster than most think.

  9. Brandon says:

    IMO one thing of importance in helping accelerate EV adoption in the 2020s will be a reliable DCFC network in the US… a company or companies that will do here in the US what Fastned is doing in the Netherlands. A company that will operate something similar to what can be seen in Tesla’s Supercharger network today. Here is a piece I wrote recently on this subject on my blog:

    http://www.nextgenfastchargenetworks.blogspot.com/2016/02/reliability-needed-i-believe-we-can.html?m=1

  10. David Murray says:

    You know.. it’s funny. Digital cameras sort of went the opposite direction. They started as low-end consumer devices that could not compete with 35mm cameras. And over time as they got better, they eventually penetrated that market too. It’s a pity the EV revolution had to start with the top and trickle down.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Hmmm, I just made the same point in another comment thread here at InsideEVs. But I’m not so sure the top-down method of new tech penetrating the market is all that rare. After all, cell phones also started out as a “rich man’s toy” ($4000 for the 1983 Motorola DynaTAC 8000x), and only gradually came down in price to an affordable price.

    2. jerryd says:

      David, so right. I’ve been driving low cost lead powered lightweight composite commuter EV’s for 23 yrs now would have been the obvious place to start as such a smaller batter pack needed not having to move all that weight around.
      My present EV trike pickup costs me $300/yr for EVERYTHING! Much cheaper than any transport except bicycles.
      Though my e-bike tire bill got rather high.

  11. Jychevyvolt says:

    China is key to EV movement. Europe, Japan and America have 100 years of head start in ICE development. Instead of catching up, China should forge ahead in EV technology.

  12. Texas FFE says:

    Texas FFE was damaged this morning. It got caught in a bad hail storm and then It hit a steel street light pole that had blown down across the highway. The car is still drivable but it’s sure not ready for any car shows. Hopefully all the king’s men can put Texas FFE back together again. I think adaptive cruise control would prevented the interaction with the downed street light.

    1. Texas FFE says:

      My Fusion Energi also got caught in the same hail storm. My wife drives the Fusion so I haven’t seen it yet but it looks like a bad day for EVs in the Texas FFE family.

      1. GSP says:

        Texas FFE,

        Sorry to hear about your cars. I hope you have a good outcome getting them fixed or replaced.

        GSP

    2. Jychevyvolt says:

      It’s a sign for you to upgrade to a volt/bolt.

    3. David Murray says:

      Same hail storm here in Kennedale. Fortunately, our two EVs were in the garage when it came through. Actually we got two hail storms. One around 4:30am and the next closer to 7:00am

  13. scott franco says:

    “making predictions is hard, especially about the future”.

    Yogi Berra.

  14. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    Well, at long last, one of these snakeoil-selling “market analyst” companies acknowledges that the EV revolution will progress in an “S” curve, not a straight-line increase in plug-in EV sales.

    I certainly hope the 50% point in new car sales will be reached in less than 24 years from today! I’m hoping for 20 years, or perhaps even a bit less.

    But we won’t need to reach that 50% point before the triumph of the EV revolution becomes clear and inevitable. About the time PEV sales reach a market share of 15% or so, accelerating every year, everybody but the die-hards will see the handwriting on the wall.

    No doubt the die-hards will include a few “hydrogen highway” advocates still posting to InsideEVs. 😉

  15. wavelet says:

    Another group of “research” bozos clowns.
    They completely fail to explain what they believe to be the significance of the inflection point.

    An “inflection point”‘s significance in multiple ways: Effect on automakers & their ecosystem, on the transportation sector in general, energy distribution & generation, pollution/emissions etc.
    By any measure, all these will feel far reaching effects way before 50% of cars sold are EVs… Probably by the time they are 20%-30% (to take a simple example, that percentage will already be enough to make many non-highway gas stations unprofitable, and they’ll close, making refueling more inconvenient for ICE cars, and further reducing their popularity.

    Ditto the market for service centers: While there’ll still be servicing of brakes/suspension/tires/steering/ancillary electrical and of course bodywork after accidents, the ICE servicing which AFAIK is a large % will shrink.

    Leaving aside the question of when it’

  16. SparkEV says:

    I went to get gas for my mower today, first time to gas station in almost a year. I noticed there are LOTS of gas stations! If there are significant number of EV, what would happen to gas stations, owners, employees? I doubt they’re going to sit around and go out of business or convert to convenience stores. If anything, they’ll fight (or they’re already fighting). That will have negative effect on EV adoption.

    As such, this “research” is flawed. What I think will happen is that sudden change in energy mix will come to play. That will have rapid change in adoption. For gas cars, it was Model T (assembly line). I suspect EV will be Fusion or some other form of “dirt cheap” energy source. Until then, there are too many negative market forces to allow smooth transition.

    1. Darth says:

      Gas stations are typically very ugly. I love the ones smack in the middle of small otherwise kind of cute little towns. Then, bam! an ugly gas station right on the corner of main and market street.

      No one will miss these when they are gone. A few fast charge stations are all that will be needed. These can be located at existing other shopping areas. 90% of charging is done at home anyway.

    2. Leaf Owner says:

      This type shift happens ALL the time. Remember the Blockbuster stores in every mall….what happened to all those people when the shift to on-line video? They all will find new jobs and the land will be re-used for something else…..

    3. Bone says:

      I think the existing network of gas stations will have positive effect on EV adoption, not negative. All these gas stations will need alternative source of income and they will be installing fast cahrgers to stay in business. The sooner gas station management understands this the better chance of survival they have.

    4. jerryd says:

      Few make money on selling gas and few gas employees.
      It is just a come on to sell other more profitable things, what the employees do mostly.

    5. wavelet says:

      “I doubt they’re going to sit around and go out of business or convert to convenience stores. If anything, they’ll fight (or they’re already fighting). ”
      They won’t have much of a choice. They’re an iffy proposition already, because ever-tighter environmental regulation makes upkeep of the on-site underground fuel storage a problem already. The smaller stations used primarily by urban/suburban commuters will be the first to go.
      Depending on location, some may be able to convert to EV charging locations (if they’re along long distance routes where DC charging will be necessary), otherwise, maybe to pure convenience stores (maybe plus a carwash).

  17. Two factors glaringly missing:
    – Technological advancements affecting range, charge time, and cost.
    – Fashion. Why do people ignore the fact that due to Tesla and soon others, there will be a huge cool-factor associated with buying Electric. Cheaper, faster, less cost to maintain, and the coolest cars and trucks on the planet.
    How long did we have MP4 players before the IPod? A utility device that became an icon of coolness. And who now has a huge EV development project?
    We all say that we are buying because it is a practical choice, but we really onlly buy the cool stuff.

  18. PVH says:

    SCOOP.

    I know how long it will take for EV’s to become mainstream and now is the time to share my secret with you.

    I will take less time than petrol heads think but more time than the EV enthusiast think.

    🙂