India Going Electric-Only, Goal Of No Gas, Diesel Sales By 2030

2 weeks ago by Mark Kane 35

Mahindra Halo

The topic of effectively ending petrol and diesel vehicle sales in favor of all-electric offerings by 2030 is apparently still bouncing around in India, and it has now been about year since we heard the notion for the first time.

Mahindra Reva Electric Vehicles

For India, the promotion of plug-in cars is important from a “cost of fuel imported” point of view.

Power minister Piyush Goyal said while addressing the CII Annual Session 2017:

“We are going to introduce electric vehicles in a very big way. We are going to make electric vehicles self- sufficient like UJALA. The idea is that by 2030, not a single petrol or diesel car should be sold in the country,”.

UJALA is a LED distribution programme, which helped to achieve some 500 million LED bulbs sold in the last two years.

Whether plug-ins will sell as well as LEDs have in the past is an open question, but Ministry of Heavy Industries and the NITI Aayog apparently are developing a new policy.

Goyal added:

“The cost of electric vehicles will start to pay for itself for consumers. We would love to see the electric vehicle industry run on its own.”

source: The Times Of India, Driven, Hat tip to Miggy!

Tags: ,

36 responses to "India Going Electric-Only, Goal Of No Gas, Diesel Sales By 2030"

  1. DJ says:

    With a rapidly growing middle class how exactly do they expect to accomplish this? LED light bulbs are one thing. Vehicles a completely different thing.

    1. trackdaze says:

      Presumably the middle class will be buying electric vehicles.

    2. drpawansharma says:

      The typical Indian mentality is to look towards card from a total cost of ownership mentality.

      In 1998, CNG cars were introduced in Delhi, the capital of India, very soon they became widely popular since running a car on CNG was about Rs 1.50 per Kilometres compared to Rs 5.00 per kilometer for a petrol car.

      Similiar thing is going to happen with Electrical cars, but there should be a reasonable amount of premium vis a vis petrol cars.

      1. mx says:

        This is sad, in that it indicates a general level of IQ in India is higher then the USA.

        The hybrids have been on the market in the US for 20 years, and still less then 3% of sales. Hybrids still pay for themselves, but America is Math Challenged.

        1. Arun Jayaseelan says:

          That is not completely true. In the US people drive a lot. everything is spread out. Everything is far. Inter city public transportation like LA-SF sucks. So you need to own a car that can at least get you 300 miles and then refuel right away.
          The same is not true in India. Most people I know drive less than 10 miles and even that takes over an hour because of the terrible traffic. So short range electric cars can do very well.

        2. realistic says:

          Hybrids do NOT pay for themselves when viewed within more-or-less identical automobile criteria (MGVWR, interior space, etc.) over the entire Cost of Ownership.

          If you disagree: since you made the first assertion, you need to prove it.

  2. Someone out there says:

    The oil industry does NOT like to hear this. China and India are seen as the future growth markets as oil demand has leveled out and even declined a little in the west. Now both of these countries are betting hard on electrics! I would be very anxious if I were an oil executive today.

    1. mx says:

      The Euro Oil companies are finally looking at expanding into Wind and Solar projects.

      In the US, the CEO’s believe their own bull.
      They actually listen to their paid monkey, Limbaugh, and Fox News, and Believe, they can wish and Propagandize their way out of the future.

      The Republican CEO and Party are a Drag on US Innovation.

    2. realistic says:

      Very Western-centric (and dare I say ethnocentric) POV. India has a very large and vibrant indigenous oil industry. They don’t need “Big Oil” from white boys: they have their own version. Example: the largest refinery in the world is in Jamnagar.

  3. ffbj says:

    They might get a lot of traction out of electric motorcycles, that double as taxis.

  4. Rich says:

    “The idea is that by 2030, not a single petrol or diesel car should be sold in the country,”

    Looks like regulation out of China, India, and EU will force the transition to EVs for all of us. Simply Awesome!

    1. David Lane says:

      Yes, this is such hopeful news for the world!!

  5. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    Only 13 years to a complete ban on sales of all passengers cars except BEVs?

    Well, that may be possible, but India’s government had better make pretty aggressive plans to subsidize domestic BEV makers, and to gradually phase out sales of gasmobiles. I don’t think it’s realistic to count on the competitive market to develop and progress that far naturally, to produce that many BEVs in 2030, and to make them so competitive that nobody would want to buy a gasmobile.

    Even if the EV revolution starts that traditional “S” curve adoption rate of new tech during a disruptive tech revolution, even if it starts that growth phase tomorrow in India, the upper end of that “S” curve takes an extended time to go from, let’s say, 80-85% to 100%. Achieving 100% in only 13 years simply won’t happen unless there is an outright ban on gasmobile sales.

    I’d love to see this happen! But I’m rather skeptical that it will. As I’ve pointed out before: Economic forces are more powerful than political forces.

    1. Dan says:

      A couple of years ago, they came out with a plan to increase their solar capacity nearly 100 fold by 2022…and they are pretty much on target on that steep growth curve. Just in the last year, they jumped from #10 to #5 in solar capacity and are on target to become #3 this year.

      What they are attempting to do with BEVs is not unreasonable.

    2. drpawansharma says:

      Actually it can happen much faster in India, Car ownership is still very low when compared to a typical western country.

      Similar thing happened, when we completely leapfrogged Landline phones with Cellular ones, i.e majority of population did not even experience a landline at home, when they started owning a mobile phone.

  6. zzzzzzzzzz says:

    75% of electricity production is from coal, and share is increasing.
    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.COAL.ZS?locations=IN

    These full of empty talking politicians would better fix and clean up their electric grid before talking about cars.

    1. Nick says:

      Disagree 100%.

      Better to do both at the same time. Decoupling the vehicle from the fuel source is hugely important. They can always burn gas in huge generators for the grid if they want to.

    2. mx says:

      India is shutting down coal just like the rest of the world.
      The coal companies themselves are building out solar.

      1. drpawansharma says:

        Yes, NTPC of india is one of the largest builders of solar, I do not think they have another parallel like this anywhere else in the world where a thermal power producer is investing so much into solar.

    3. realistic says:

      zzzzzzzz, you Big Coal advocate you! How dare you deny (DENY!!!) the dreams of solar advocates.

      You must be in league with the Univ. of Cal. Irvine and CoalSwarm, known Big Coal compatriots, when you tout stuff like their April 25, 2017 press release:

      ” ‘India is facing a dilemma of its own making,’ said UCI associate professor of Earth system science Steven Davis, co-author of a study published today in the American Geophysical Union journal Earth’s Future. ‘The country has vowed to curtail its use of fossil fuels in electricity generation, but it has also put itself on a path to building hundreds of coal-burning power plants to feed its growing industrial economy.’ ”

      OK… sarc off.

      The fact of the matter is that Coal India Ltd’s announced 2015 target of 1 BILLION TONNES annual coal production by 2020 has not been reduced (to a mere 908 Million tonnes) because of the rumored Indian “shift to renewables”. It’s because land acquisition, rehabilitation, forest and environmental clearances and railway connectivity are more expesive than CIL planned. BTW: what’s India’s current indigenous coal production? 538.75 MT in 2015-16.

    4. realistic says:

      Ah, what the hell, zzzzzzzzz. Maybe it would help to just quote the Indian Gov’t on this (Dec 2016):

      “A roadmap has been prepared by Coal India Limited (CIL) to substantially enhance production of coal to 1 Billion Tonnes by 2019-20 from the current level of production of 538.75 MT in 2015-16. As per Annual Plan document of Ministry of Coal, all India target of coal production for 2016-17 was fixed at 724.71 MT. This was stated by the Union Minister of State (IC) For Power, Coal, New & Renewable Energy and Mines, Shri Piyush Goyal, in a written reply, in Lok Sabha today.

      “Shri Goyal informed the house that the focus of the Government is to increase the domestic production of coal which includes efforts to expedite Environment clearances & Forest clearances, pursuing with State Government for assistance in land acquisition and coordinated effort with Railways for movement of coal. This includes capacity addition from new projects, use of mass production technologies and identification of existing on-going projects with growth potential.

      “The Minister added that steps have also been taken by CIL and its subsidiaries to improve the production of coal by adopting latest available technologies such as Continuous Miners, Selective Mining, Surface Miners and clean Coal Technologies, Coal sizing and sampling technologies.”

      Yes: it’s the same Shri Piyush Goyal who is touting progress in Solar.

      And he’s not lying about that, but his target is to get power to the population, period, and the fuel is gonna be coal for decades to come.

  7. Ed Stein says:

    I’m not confident this can happen. The grid there is archaic. Rats nest power poles are everywhere. High rise apartments are everywhere with no way to charge. Bureaucracy is rampant in India making progress slow. Most vehicles I saw were diesel and had few emissions or safety equipment. We’ll see.

    1. Martin Winlow says:

      Well, I share your lack of enthusiasm. But… having recently returned from a holiday in India a few things stuck me.

      Firstly it is quite a sunny place so a solar-based energy generation set-up backed up by (relatively) clean NG could work.

      Secondly, they are very industrious bunch and not work-shy, unlike most of the West.

      Thirdly, whilst the grid does appear to be rather ramshackle, by using locally (PV) generated electricity the wider problems of distribution are neatly largely eliminated and the huge increase in infrastructure that India would need anyway – let alone if it wants to power all its transport electrically – can be scaled down, saving much money that can be put towards PV instead.

      Whether simply politician’s bluster or practical reality, the idea is something we in the West should be aping not dismissing.

  8. fasterthanonecanimagine says:

    A bit off topic, but I’m excited, finally somebody sees it the way I do: faster than one can imagine: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vanish-in-8-years-says-us-report-from-stanford-economist-20170514-gw4r0u

    1. Someone out there says:

      Yeah, Tony Seba has been saying that for quite some time and I think he’s pretty spot on.

      I think it will go like this: right now, some dealers are offering EVs for people asking for them. By 2020 dealers will suggest EVs as an option for the customer. By 2022 dealers will prefer to sell EVs and by 2025 you will have to specifically ask for a gas car if you want to buy one. There might be a couple old ones in the back but the vast majority of cars in stock will be EVs. By 2028 it will not even be possible to buy a new gas car. Some countries will lag a little but by 2030 it should be more or less impossible to buy a new gas car anywhere in the world.

      1. Jason says:

        Ha, ha, come to Australia, I’m sure we’ll still have ICE in 2030! Worst 1st World country when it comes to EV’s. Tesla has great brand recognition here, so I’m sure they will do well, but as for everything else, no one of any significance is talking up EV’s much at all.

        Hell, our government is working with Adarni to open a coal mine in one of our pristine environments, transporting right through the Great Barrier Reef (one of the natural wonders of the world), to the intensive opposition of a lot of our population. They really seem to be in Trump’s camp and don’t appear to give a shit about the environment or the obvious move to EV’s. We are only now taking about phasing out RON95 unleaded petrol for the much higher cost RON98, who knows what the real reason is given most of our cars are tuned for RON95 and if it is really an emissions reduction exercise then EV had zero emission and you can’t really get any better than that. IMO it is a cash grab.

        So increase our population, migrate here, and I’m sure you’ll be able to run your dirty old gasser for many years to come.

  9. bernard says:

    The electric system is different to the fossil system, the distribution of fuel from central facilities to very dispersed petrol stations is not replicated with electric vehicles. Relative small PV systems can charge a car anywhere sunlight can be collected and since the majority of trips are short < 50klm electric vehicles are perfectly suited. Add very low operation cost and the ability to generate ones own power it is entirely feasible that India will not sell a single fossil powered vehicle by 2030. There are so many changes happening, not possible to keep track of them all- http://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-armored-truck-oh-yeah/

  10. Bon Bon says:

    I have never been there but I do think they seem to be serious about this.

    1. realistic says:

      Shri Piyush Goyal is the world’s biggest coal advocate. He understands how to play the political/publicity cards for the uninformed moralizing Westerner. Goyal likes to tell foreigners that India continues to reduce its coal imports, which is true… because India is increasing the rate of their indigenous mine production at a furious rate.

      He knows the Western advocacy, especially the Famous for Having Been Famous, are largely innumerate.

  11. JIMJFOX says:

    COST- here’s the contradiction; electric motors are very, very simple cf ICE’s. Battery costs have fallen, capacity increased. The reason that ICE’s are so cheap is economy of scale; am I wrong?
    SO. when EV’s are produced in MILLIONS, they must become far cheaper than ICE’s?
    [Think how much a V8 with auto and all ancillaries would cost if IT was new technology… ]

  12. Mister G says:

    GO INDIA GO bypass dirty fossil fuels and save tons of money on health care costs…fossil fuels make humans ill.

    1. realistic says:

      “GO INDIA GO bypass dirty fossil fuels”

      India is no more likely to “bypass” fossil fuels than you are to bypass eating. This is a false hope.

  13. evnow says:

    So, all alt-right/Far-right governments are not anti-EV pro-Oil ?

    1. realistic says:

      Could you possibly explain your point?

  14. realistic says:

    Impossible, unless their actual goal is to limit individual mobility to a tiny segment of the population for the forseeable future.

    There is an 80/20 solution for the gross urban air pollution problems in India, and it does not involve grandiose schemes. While planning the latest version of anti-gravity, spend the money on the obvious:

    (1) Eliminate the thousands of garbage fires that burn on many nights to provide warmth to homeless poor and Dalits. (Of course to do so you have to G.A.S. about this population, also a challenge)

    (2) Provide MINIMAL sanitation to substantially reduce the methane from decaying feces (and in some cases the smoke from latrine fires: yes, in some places it’s the poop fires that are causing your eyes to water)

    (3) Set a quick path to low-sulfur diesel

    (4) More subsidies for last-mile transport. The tuk-tuks are incredibly smoky and despite all the chin-wagging by Indian functionaries these little belchers of particulate (tens of times more polluting than a typical diesel car) remain ubiquitous and essential.

    If they can’t do these things in the next few years then the idea that they will have a robust, widespread grid with readily dispatchable power — mostly from renewable soursces and storage — to drive the transport system will remain pure nonsense.

Leave a Reply