Electric Cars To Have 100% Market Share In Norway By 2025?

1 year ago by Mark Kane 47

Nissan LEAF In Bus Lane In Norway

Nissan LEAF In Bus Lane In Norway

New plug-in passenger car registrations in Norway – January 2016

New plug-in passenger car registrations in Norway – January 2016 (click to enlarge)

The Norwegian National Transport Plan 2018-2029 (which is released by the aviation, rail and road sectors) recentlly presented to the government, assumes that electric (plus hydrogen) cars could have 100% share in new car sales by 2025.

Once more – 100%.

As of today, Norway typically notes pure electric and plug-in car sales between 20 and 25% of new passenger cars. In January it was little over 25%.

“Targets for electric vehicles are ambitious, with the plan setting out a target that all newly-registered cars, light vans and buses should be ‘zero emission’ in 2025, with 1.6 million to be put on the roads by 2030 – claimed to save around 2.7 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.”

To achive the goal of the plan, the government would need to keep strong incentives. Over the past 20 years, Norway has set a pretty favorable environment for EVs:

  • Final exemption sales tax (01.01.1996)
  • Exemption annual tax (01.01.1996)
  • Exemption road toll (01.06.1997)
  • EL registration plates (01.01.1999)
  • Exemption municipal parking (01.19.1999)
  • Reduced company taxation (01.01.2000, expanded in 2005 and 2009)
  • Zero VAT on purchase (01/07/2001)
  • Access to bus lanes (01.06.2005)
  • Free EV access to highway ferries (01.01.2009)
  • Climate agreement securing tax excemptions until 01.01.2018 (11.06.2012)
  • Zero VAT on leasing EVs or battery packs (01.07.2015)

source: EV Fleet World

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47 responses to "Electric Cars To Have 100% Market Share In Norway By 2025?"

  1. David Murray says:

    Many of those incentives would not be sustainable with 100% market share of EVs.

    1. Anon says:

      As global automakers follow Elon’s example of Battery Gigafactories to supply long range vehicles, the cost of an EV will drop dramatically by the time subsidies need to be curtailed.

      It’s a “Snow-ball” effect of selling more BEVs over time. No pun intended. 😉

      GO NORWAY!!!

    2. przemo_li says:

      Yes.

      Though, I’m not aware about any study that would calculate social costs caused by car pollution in Norway. So can not really answer that question with cost X benefit Y so delta is Z.

      1. Norwegian says:

        Here’s one such study you “aren’t aware of” – took me ten seconds to dig up by googling “tøi samfunnskostnader utslipp personbil”.

        (Sorry, it’s in Norwegian, as you might expect for a study of the specific costs *in Norway*.)

        https://www.toi.no/getfile.php?mmfileid=38978

        1. Norwegian says:

          My bad! Having posted the link I went back to read the report (I inaccurately called it a study, but it is a report based on studies and presenting their findings, not itself a study).

          As it turns out, it’s in both Norwegian and English, so to the extent foreigners are interested in the externalities in the particular Norwegian context, they should read it too.

    3. Someone out there says:

      True, there probably aren’t enough EL registration plates to go around

      1. Emc2 says:

        You are right on the money! They expect to run out of special EL plates soon (the series ends at EL99999, and began at EL10000), so the government already reserved the series EK to be followed by EV.

    4. ffbj says:

      That’s true, but the article says 100% of new car sales, not 100% of market share.

    5. Just_Chris says:

      That’s not really the case, most of the incentives are tax exemptions so are pretty sustainable. You’d have to raise tax from somewhere else (like oil and gas exports) but I can’t see why it can’t be done in Norway.

      I am less convinced that EV’s can perform in every role but if they make it to 50%, 75% what ever they can and I’d be happy. Lets face it with the rest of the world under 5% lets not be too picky.

      1. Knut Erik Ballestad says:

        EV’s include PHEV, so I don’t see what role BEV’s and PHEV’s combined cannot fulfil….

        1. Just_chris says:

          Sorry my misunderstanding, 100% with phev’s in 10 years absolutely doable, total zero emissions at point of use unlikely.

    6. Will says:

      If we can reach 100% EV market share I would not care about incentives any more 😛 I’d just be happy.

    7. Sondre says:

      We don’t need to keep the EV incentives. We just tax the ICE harder. The point is to always keep the EV the most affordable option. This was one of the main point in the political deal on how to phase out the EV incentives, made spring 2015.

    8. Norwegian says:

      That’s right. And yet they no doubt played a very important role in making it possible to even contemplate 100% share by 2025.

      I don’t think it’s likely to happen. But I do think BEV share will continue to grow fairly rapidly. And I do think BEVs will continue to be favourably taxed compared to ICEs, as there is broad political agreement that taxation should incorporate the polluter pay principle and prices should reflect the true costs to society.

      Opel Ampera-e might alone lead to a big boost in EV share over here, if Opel can supply enough of them quickly enough. That’s a big if, though. As we know, Chevy has said they aren’t “production constrained”, but that doesn’t mean they’ll adapt production rates to initial demand in tiny Norway, a market that doesn’t matter much in the long run. So I expect there will be long delivery times and many won’t get their car in 2017 at all… although the distributor will beg for as many as they can get, since Opel has struggled in Norway for years now and the incentives could be reduced (I don’t think eliminated) for 2018.

      Personally, I’ve put myself on Opels list to be notified when they have more information about the Ampera-e. I’ll reserve my Model 3 on March 31 (and have ample time to think about whether to use it or have it refunded), and probably also buy the Ampera-e (since Model 3 will almost certainly not be on the road here before summer 2018 at the earliest). I think a lot of other people are thinking just like me.

      By now, there are so many electric cars on the road that nearly everyone has experienced riding in one and most drivers have tried one at some point. That alone has huge value, because people who are on the fence can have a chat with their neighbours and ask questions and get some pointers. Current-generation cars, except for the out-of-reach-for-many Tesla, have only just enough range to get by for a lot of folks, and I for one believe the Bolt/Ampera-e will convince a lot more people to make the switch.

      1. Epicurus says:

        What motivates Norwegians to be so forward thinking about EVs? The desire for clean air?
        Stable climate? The incentives?

        A more intelligent population?

    9. DaveinOlyWA says:

      they would not have to be. there are many people out there that would have never tried an EV without the incentives available. a huge portion of them now state they won’t go back to gas even if the fuel was offered for free and all EV incentives went away

  2. Alaa says:

    And Denmark is celebrating the 9th Hydrogen filling station as I type! It is worth noting that Denmark once occupied Norway.

    1. Someone out there says:

      So did Germany and they have several hydrogen filling stations… OMG! Occupying Norway leads to hydrogen filling stations!

    2. Birger says:

      No, Denmark did not occupy Norway. Denmark and Norway was in a union up until 1814. The union lasted for 434 years. Norway and Denmark had the same royals, but different laws. Norway was the weaker part of the union.

      From 1814 to 1905 Norway was in a forced union with Sweeden due to the Danish loss in the Napoleon wars.

    3. Norwegian says:

      Denmark is doing some sensible things to prepare itself for the future, but its EV policy isn’t one of them. Celebrating hydrogen stations is a good way to demonstrate a lack of understanding of basic physics as well as ignorance of what is going on in the car world.

      Fuel cells? More like fool cells.

  3. Texas FFE says:

    I don’t see enough government incentives to reach 100% market share by 2025. Free electricity and huge gas taxes might but the only government action I see that could guarantee 100% market share is to outlaw gas burning vehicles.

    1. Rebel44 says:

      When ICEs are taxed so much, that well optioned Model 3, Leaf 2, Bolt etc. will be significantly cheaper, than any decent ICE, it will quickly reduce ICE marketshare to scraps.

    2. Ambulator says:

      Outlaw, or tax them a lot. If you really think you need a fossil fueled car in 2025 you should have to pay dearly for it. The current incentives should go away, although something similar to “cash for clunkers” might be a good idea.

    3. RexxSee says:

      When enough people have BEVs, all the others will want one, seing the benefits, it’s inevitable!

      1. scott franco says:

        Correct. We don’t need to go to EV fascism.

        When/if big sugar daddy tries to outlaw ICE cars, I, even with two EVs, will be out protesting that law.

        If good and smart does not sell, then it was neither in reality.

        1. Will says:

          Why? Hybrid cars will reach a stage where there’s simply no excuse to make a petrol-only car. When that time comes, outlawing electric-free cars is a sensible move.

        2. Epicurus says:

          If you were on a boat in the middle of the ocean, and some passengers insisted on their right to drill holes in the hull, would you favor outlawing drilling holes in the hull (hull drilling fascism) or would you argue in favor hull drilling freedom?

          Our boat is already leaking badly.

  4. QC says:

    2025 is nearly a decade away. With this pace of development in tech and costs – does anyone really think a gasoline car stands a chance? Also the number of new cars sold will decrease through autonomy and petrol users manage to extend their lifestyle by buying fairly new ICEs whose value has plummeted

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Over the long term, it’s just as inevitable that the BEV will replace the gasmobile as it was that the gasmobile would replace the steam car.

      But by 2025? In only 9 years? That’s downright silly. The EV revolution isn’t progressing that fast.

      And as much as I’d like to see the EV revolution succeed in my lifetime (I’m 60), I don’t think that an outright ban on gasmobile sales is the way to do it. I’d much rather see a gradual introduction of a carbon tax on gasoline sales, and maybe a “sin tax” on owning a gasmobile. Gradually make it more and more expensive and difficult to drive a gasmobile, just as smoking cigarettes has become more and more difficult and expensive in the USA.

      Any attempt on an outright ban on gasmobile sales, at least within the next human generation, is going to create a backlash against EVs, and would only slow the EV revolution.

      (The preceding has been my opinion only. Others may see things differently.)

      1. RexxSee says:

        There is always an exponential curve in the adoption of new technologies. We are right in front of the steeper curve up. 2025 will see many changes!
        Listen to the man.

  5. Itamar says:

    It’s really simple. The solution isn’t to give increasing incentives to EVs. At some point there would need to be a personal ICE tax, that way by comparison EVs would be even more worthwhile, and each country would be able to make back some of the money spent towards EV rebates

    1. Aaron says:

      +1 – Comment of the day

    2. Doug B says:

      Yup, as incentives are reduced, petrol fuel tax is increased

    3. scott franco says:

      I disagree that even this is necessary. Market forces tend to favor one solution over others. EVs are presently working against the volume discounts of ICE cars, but that situation will reverse. It is already more expensive to service an ICE car, and in the future they will cost significantly more to manufacture as well. Not only the laws of volume manufacturing insure this, but also ICE cars are inherently more complex than BEVs.

      If you want to increase gas tax like cigarettes, then be aware the the poor will bear an increasing share of that tax, since they can’t afford new cars.

      1. Just_Chris says:

        Tax is there to correct market failures. Tax on ICE vehicles should be proportional to the cost of repairing health and environmental damage caused by these vehicles as a minimum.

        You want to drive an ICE in the city fine but you pay to clean the buildings and treat those with asthma, heart problems and complications during pregnancy caused or worsened by your behavior. Right now people seem to think if taxes on vehicles can cover the cost of road maintenance then every thing is just peachy.

        1. Epicurus says:

          To account for the externalized health care costs of coal, a Harvard study estimated $.23/kWh would have to be added to the price of coal generated electricity.

          Adding the externalized costs to the price of an ICE car might double the sales price.

          There would be riots, but I would favor doing that.

  6. Sondre says:

    Today’s incentives will be phased out over the next years. Then the aurhoreties probably will raise the tax on ICEs.
    That will be parallell to what have been done with fossile fuel heating. First there where incentives for heat pumps, then the cost of the technology was reduced and so was the the incentives. Then a tentative date,2020, for a ban on fossil heating was set. Could it be done with stationary oil burner that it could be done with mobile oil burners?

  7. Skjervesbu says:

    With diminishing oil incomes (+ increased amount of elders) we’re looking at an increase from 40-50% typical income tax to 55-65% over the same period. And EV owners really think car taxes will dissappear with the transition to EVs during this period? Not gonna happen. The quicker the transition the sooner incentives disappear.

  8. Loboc says:

    For 100% new sales = EVs, EVs need to have similar form factors to today’s sales.

    – Pickups (do they sell pickups there?)
    – SUV/CUV
    – Larger cars and station wagons
    – Limo
    – Vans
    – Dominoes pizza trucks (with pizza warmers)

    1. Will says:

      yes, they sell pickups. But not commonly. I think the rest of the world thinks Americans have a pickup truck obsession.

  9. ModernMarvelFan says:

    Norway is like a drug dealer who tells its own family to get off the drugs while it continues to push the drug against all other families in the neighborhood…

  10. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “The Norwegian National Transport Plan 2018-2029… assumes that electric… cars could have 100% share in new car sales by 2025.

    “Once more – 100%.”

    “To achive the goal of the plan, the government would need to keep strong incentives. Over the past 20 years, Norway has set a pretty favorable environment for EVs”

    No. Just no. The only way that any region, State or country is going to achieve 100% EV sales in the foreseeable future is by an outright ban on all gasmobile sales. No matter how appealing plug-in EVs become, there will still be some who, for various reasons, will prefer to own a gasmobile.

    Since the only way to stop sales of gasmobiles is an outright ban, no government incentives for EVs will be necessary in that region, State or country where sales are banned.

    1. Emc2 says:

      The plan foresees that possibility, so the gap is expected to be filled by plug-in hybrids and using biofuels (for heavy-trucks, ferries, aviation, …)

  11. neoLITE says:

    When the number of ICE’s on the road decreases so will the number of filling stations. Range anxiety will be more of an issue among ICE owners than EV owners… With 60 percent of filling stations gone gasmobiles will look considerably less tempting.

  12. KM says:

    As the cost of batteries goes down some countries which don’t like to depend on fuel imports will ban sales of new conventional ICE cars and will only allow phevs and bevs. First will probably be China with EU countries and Japan soon afterwards. News about Norway is exciting now but I would expect China to get there first about 2024 – 2025 and this will be a big deal.

  13. mxs says:

    That’s what endless incentives do … also “The oil fund” helped a lot. It’s admirable, yet a bit ironic at the same time. On one hand one wants to say … “Go Norway” .. on another even more oil would be pumped, if every country took the same approach.

    Simply speaking, the high EV rate in Norway is not simply because Norwegian people are willing to live healthier life and make healthier choices than others …. you give these sort of incentives to other countries and you will find otherwise.

    Also, we are talking about a country with 5 mil population …. not sure people realize that ….