By 2022, Hawaii Will Have Highest Concentration of Annual Plug-In Sales Out of All US States

4 years ago by Inside EVs Staff 16

Hawaii...Preferred Home of Future EVs

Hawaii…Preferred Home of Future EVs

This just in…Hawaii is on course to become the US’ annual plug-in vehicle sales leaders by 2022.

According to Navigant Research, this is how it will all play out:

Navigant Research projects that California, New York, Washington, and Florida will lead the way in PEV sales in the United States. By 2022, Hawaii is expected to have the highest concentration of annual PEV sales (in terms of percentage of overall vehicle sales in the state), followed by California and Oregon. Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York City are anticipated to have the largest sales of PEVs through the forecast period.

Wonky Graphic That Goes With the Story But Doesn't Include a Mention of Hawaii

Wonky Graphic That Goes With the Story But Doesn’t Include a Mention of Hawaii

What’s going on with our neighbors to the north (aka Canadians)?  Here’s what Navigant says will happen there:

“In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia will account for 97% of Canadian PEV sales by 2022 (they also account for 75% of the Canadian population). The cities of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver will lead Canadian PEV sales.”

Lastly, there’s this from Navigant:

“Navigant Research forecasts PEVs will reach 416,153 annual sales in the United States and 230,479 in Canada by 2022.”

We’re so looking forward to 2022.

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16 responses to "By 2022, Hawaii Will Have Highest Concentration of Annual Plug-In Sales Out of All US States"

  1. kdawg says:

    If/when cheap 200 mile BEV’s become a reality, Hawaii should just ban ICE vehicles. A loop around the largest island is only 250 miles.

    1. Spec says:

      They won’t need to ban them, people just won’t buy them. Gas will be more expensive and they don’t need range such that EVs are the logical choice.

      However, their electricity is a bit expensive but you can reduce the price by installing a PV system. So the Hawaiian electric company is going to have to figure out how to operate and finance a grid with massive amounts of solar. They’ll probably have to start charging PV customers a ‘grid interconnect fee’ to help fund the grid maintenance and night-time electricity.

      1. Nate says:

        When I was on the Big Island last fall, gas wasn’t that much higher than Oregon. According to the Californians I talked too, it was less expensive there than back at their home. I figured it would way more there. Maybe that part will change though..

        1. Spec says:

          I didn’t mean gas will be more expensive in Hawaii. It will be more expensive everywhere as the years go by, oil fields deplete, and more Chinese buy cars.

      2. Mint says:

        “They’ll probably have to start charging PV customers a ‘grid interconnect fee’ to help fund the grid maintenance and night-time electricity.”

        That’s really how it should have been done from the beginning. It’s sort of silly to lump grid maintenance in per-kWh charges when there’s a very weak correlation between usage and installation/maintenance cost.

        What Hawaii is going to find out with wide adoption of solar, however, is that utilities are going to jack up rates due to selling less electricity. They can’t shut down or reduce capacity because they’re still needed for cloudy days. So unless you have a battery system, a person installing solar increases the cost of electricity for his solar-less neighbors.

        1. pjwood says:

          Mint,

          You have to score the break-evens on solar against a 30 cent base kwh rate. Most of that rate is made up of variable costs on diesel fuel (the stuff islands tend to run on), not fixed costs shifted to “solar-less neighbors”. Some of your argument holds, but it is a smaller percentage.

          If a PV array pays for itself in 8 years, on the mainland, it pays for itself almost twice as fast, when rates are more than twice as high.

  2. Rick says:

    I don’t know, kdawg. Nothing good happens when governments try to legislate technology winners.

    1. ItsNotAboutTheMoney says:

      OK, the government won’t ban ICEs, but they will ban any vehicles that emit measurable toxins in exhaust gases.

    2. kdawg says:

      It works on Mackinac Island in Michigan.

  3. james says:

    Note to Larry Ellison (Oracle), billionaire who recently
    Purchased nearly the entire island of Lanai –

    Since Hawaii was king in sugar cane, and now Lanai,
    once home of C&H, is now void of all cane farms…why not start your own sugar cane/biofuel industry
    again on the island and fuel the state?

    I know – It’s too good of an idea for it to actually happen. Look for more ungodly-expensive resort
    hotels and golf courses for Japanese businessmen.
    Lord knows we need more of those! 🙁

    1. pjwood says:

      A lot of those farms now grow coffee beans.

    2. Mike I. says:

      Rumor has it that Lanai is home to 3 new RAV4 EVs. Not bad for a car that’s only for sale in California.

  4. Data for this article seems wonky! <50,000 PEV sales in 2013 & not above 100,000 till 2017? Numbers seem off, as do YoY (Year-over-Year) sales projections. How can Hawaii be leader when it is not even listed on Chart 1.1? Nothing against Hawaii, just that this article lacks relevent PEV sales data for Hawaii.

    Wish the article included some recent data with future projections. For U.S. in 2013 just short of 60,000 PEVs sold in first 8 months, on pace to exceed 90,000 PEV sales in 2013 (based on YoY sales history). For August PEV sales exceeded 11,000. Sept-Dec monthly PEV sales have historically outpace August sales (2011, 2012). From Dec 2010 to date: PEV sales total over 137,000+. We can expect similar sales to continue over the next two years.
    Ref: http://electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952

    Problem with referencing sales "number by region" vs. "concentration of sales", is comparisons between regions unless "population" (totals sales) is known for each region.

    Further, the title and focus of article is stated as "concentration of annual PEV sales", i.e. PEV sales / all sales for region. Only PEV sales number are listed. Current concentration of PEV sales each of California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington is about 3.3% … for BEVs concentration is above 1.1%.

    What were concentration projections for 2014, 2015, …, 2020? Other studies hint at PEV concentrations of 20-40% for PEVs by 2020 in some regions. BEVs sales exceeding 10% of all sales before 2020 are possible.

    PS: Hawaii's high PEV forecast for 2022 are likely related to the states goal of 70% renewable energy by 2030, and with a majority of travel being under a 100 miles per trip. An ideal environment for a 2020 EV with range exceeding 200 miles.

  5. doug says:

    Where is the link to the actual report?

    1. Jay Cole says:

      Its subscription via Navigant to read it – $4,200/license. But here is the link if you want to spring for it:

      http://www.reportlinker.com/p0395679-summary/Electric-Vehicle-Geographic-Forecasts.html

  6. MrEnergyCzar says:

    Norway rules right now with it’s 6% plug-in take rate….

    MrEnergyCzar