Australian Buyers Get First Crack At Reserving Tesla Model 3

1 year ago by Eric Loveday 23

Tesla Model 3 Invite

Tesla Model 3 Invite

Australian website Car Advice is reporting that “Thanks to the wonder of timezones, Australian hopefuls will be the first in the world to book a $1,500 (AUD) reservation for the coming Tesla Model 3 all-electric sedan.”

While Australian may be among the first to reserve the Model 3, they won’t be the first to take delivery of Tesla’s new electric car. In fact, Australia will likely be among the last to see actual deliveries of the 3.

Car Advice states:

Tesla Model 3 - Online Orders Start March 31st

Tesla Model 3 – Online Orders Start March 31st

“Buyers unable to make it to a Tesla centre – or who simply prefer to avoid the queue – will wait until around 2:30pm on April 1 (AEDT), when the still-unseen Model 3 is scheduled to be unveiled.”

“All of this means that those lining up at Tesla retail centres will not have seen the Model 3’s final styling before laying down their $1,500 reservation. Likewise, even those that wait for the unveiling will not know everything – including final local pricing – with Tesla already confirming that it will hand down more information over time.”

Ultimately when the Model 3 does physically arrive in Australia, it likely won’t have anything to do with priority sequence of the reservation, or if one was an existing Model S (or X) owner already.

Given the logistics (and known history) of importing EVs to Australia by their manufacturers, the first Model 3s will probably be delivered in a group batch – which likely will include all of the Model 3 trim/option levels that Tesla is able to produce at the time when they decide to allocate production to Australia.

Electric cars don’t sell well in Australia, largely due to the high price tags they carry. An entry-level Model S 70 is “$110,000 in Australia before on-road costs,” according to car Advice and the Model 3 is expected to be in the $60,000-$70,000 range when it launches in Australia.

The article on the reservation timing suggests the Model 3 is expected to see first Australian deliveries sometime in 2018, but realistically this seems unlikely given the lag times we have seen for plug-ins in the past and Tesla’s own stated staggered rollout for the Model 3 (beginning with the US West Coast and ending the fringe/RHD markets); we’d be more comfortable estimating 2019.

Source: Car Advice

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23 responses to "Australian Buyers Get First Crack At Reserving Tesla Model 3"

  1. pk says:

    Doesn’t really matter since deliveries will start in US/CDN first and then from west to east coast. RHD will probably be last anyway.

    1. 500 miles says:

      Stop the press!
      “L’autonomie devrait être comprise entre 300 et 500 km en fonction de la motorisation et de l’option de batterie choisies. La batterie devrait être d’une capacité de 75 kilowattheure (kWh) ou 90 kWh.”
      Agence France-Presse
      NEW YORK

  2. Bobby says:

    Everyday it seems like more bad news lol

    1. Big Solar says:

      What bad news? The only bad news that is it takes a small start up car company to force other huge car makers into doing what has only made good sense for the last 50 years!

      1. evcarnut says:

        FINALLY THE BIG G00FY SLEEPING GIANTS MAY AWAKE ,TO FACE THEIR 0WN SELF DESTRUCTION..

  3. RexxSee says:

    Circumstances are quite different from the rolling out of Model S and X. They gained much expérience, they now have factories, they have the programming, the robots, the press, the GigaFactory ready. The challenge is not developing the market ready cars, it’s only with the scaling up and the pile of cash they need and get from X/S sales.

    1. RexxSee says:

      So I stick to 2017

  4. Someone out there says:

    First ones to order it, last ones to actually get it. The RHD version will be produced last…

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Right. This was already pointed out in a couple of comments (including mine, altho I wasn’t the first) to a previous InsideEVs article on Model ≡ ordering. Surprising that both “Car Advice” and Eric Loveday seem to have missed that irony.

      “So the last shall be first, and the first last.” — Matthew 20:16

  5. Ian says:

    Estimates have been around possibly 100 000 orders…but what if there are a million orders. With production rates available today, how long would it take tesla to pump out one million model 3’s?

    1. Jychevyvolt says:

      50,000 would be really high. No way, we are reaching 100,000. That’s just crazy talk.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Well, Tesla plans to produce 80k-90k cars this year, and ramp up to 500k in 2020, of which perhaps about 400k will be the Model ≡ and the rest Model S’s and X’s. But figure those numbers are a bit optimistic… that the actual figures will be a bit lower, but likely not too much lower.

      Beyond that, your guess is probably as good as anybody else’s.

    3. Nathanael says:

      If Tesla gets one million reservations… (one billion dollars in reservation deposits…)

      Then Tesla has to build a second car factory (probably the European factory) and a second battery Gigafactory (again, probably the European factory).

      The current US Tesla Factory and Gigafactory can only supply 500K cars per year *at full buildout* which is planned for 2020. Production in the 2018 year would be more like 200K cars at best. This means reservations made now would not be fully delivered until the 2020… unless Tesla built more factories.

      1. Ian says:

        BOOM….April 5th and Tesla is over 300 000ish. Took me forever to backtrack and find this post. Can’t wait to see where the number stops.

  6. Nissan had about 50,000 advanced reservation holders for the LEAF, but they were only asked to put down $99. Raising it to $1,000 will certainly help to weed out the non-serious people who are only casually interested. I think 100,000 reservations would be an amazing accomplishment for Tesla. There isn’t going to be anywhere near a million pre-orders. 250,000 would be absolutely astonishing, and would shake the hell out of the established OEMs.

    1. pk says:

      This !!!

      Every pre-order for a model 3 is a car not being purchased from Tesla competitors for the next 18 months or more.

      1. Maybe not all! Some might still pick up an EV on lease to ‘Tide them over’ until they get delivery of their Model 3!

  7. I guess the question is: How many people already know about Tesla, are ‘Sold’ on it, but need this lower pricepoint to make their move to a reservation, and finally, a buy?

    Next, since the reservation $$ are all refundable, if the reservations immediately go nuts, breaking 10,000 spots reserved in the first hour(s), and blow thru 100,000 in day 1, will that translate into large stock price rises, on the optimism of the development; or depress the stock price, based on Tesla’s inability to ramp up fast enough?

    Basically, since they have a total goal of 500,000 cars per year, but not until 2020, and made just 50,000 (+ a few) last year with goals of incrasing 50% or more this year, how many cars can be made of the Model 3 in the time frame ramp from a few or few 100 in late 2017, to the end of 2020?

    If they succeed in delivering the 80,000, I understand they planned for 2016, and grow another 50% in 2017, that will have them delivering some 120,000+ units in 2017: maybe 500 to 1000 tops of the Model 3, maybe 20,000 Model X, and about 99,000 – 100,000 Model S.

    So, there will need to be much more than a 50% annual growth to make it to a half million units by end of 2020. Just expanding at a 50% rate goes like:
    80,000 – 2016,
    120,000 – 2017,
    180,000 – 2018,
    270,000 – 2019,
    405,000 – 2020!

    So, to make it to 500,000 for 2020, might mean something more like 60% growth annually, maybe even including 2016!

    So, @ 60% annual growth:
    50,000 – 2015,
    80,000 – 2016,
    128,000 – 2017,
    204,000 – 2018,
    327,680 – 2019,
    524,288 – 2020!

    That could do it! Since I seem to remember they did target 80,000 deliveries for 2016, it seems they know what they need to accomplish this year to stay on track!

    I also seem to remember a figure estimated of about 400,000 of the 500,00 cars, being the Model 3 in 2020, but what if the release of the Model 3 greatly increases demand for the Model S and Model X? Basically, what if the 2020 production is split 50/50 between the Model 3 and Model S/X?

    That would mean only 250,000 Model 3 to satisfy demand that year!

    That would mean a high demand for Tesla products, lead to an early start on getting a new auto factory acquired, or built, and setup, as well as an early start on Gigafactory 2!

    Over the next month, we will begin to see and hear about if the Model 3 reduces or expands demand on the cuurent products! Talk about going beyond the borders of what they know!

    1. Jychevyvolt says:

      I say 100,000/year would be a outstanding number. You need to price it at $15k to attract 500,000/year.

    2. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Robert Weekley said:

      “…depress the stock price, based on Tesla’s inability to ramp up fast enough?”

      I hope I’m not contributing to diverting this comment thread into a stock investor discussion, but it’s hard to believe that demand significantly exceeding supply would cause the stock price to go down. That’s a “problem” every manufacturer would love to have! It’s also known as “crying all the way to the bank”. 😉

      “what if the release of the Model 3 greatly increases demand for the Model S and Model X? Basically, what if the 2020 production is split 50/50 between the Model 3 and Model S/X?”

      This is, again, a “problem” that any manufacturer would love to have. That would be an opportunity, not a problem. But I wouldn’t hold my breath over demand increasing that much in the market segment of $70k-130k sedans and crossovers.

  8. Has anyone started to develop a Tesla Car Sharing Group/Club yet? Maybe like or similar to a Time Share for vacation properties, or a group buy of an airplane!

    I once met a pilot, while he and I were getting fuel for our planes (I was flying a rental from a flight school), and he was flying a new Piper Archer, I think it was. He told me he was 1 of 10 owners of the plane, and they never had any conflicts of scheduling use of the plane since they bought it in the year they had it!

    I have heard of EV’s added to a car sharing business, but never a straight shared buy!

  9. Motarra says:

    I happen to be in Tokyo, Japan this week. If I go into the local Tesla store here I’m guessing there is no mechanism or process to order a US spec Model 3. However, I’m curious enough at this point to drop by and find out. Japan will open for reservations right after Australia (16 hours ahead of US pacific time).

  10. Malcolm Scott says:

    Pleased to see a pragmatic discussion about price and availability of the Model 3 in Australia, ie, it will take quite some time before deliveries, and it will not be priced in the mainstream volume sales area. This is very different from the media hype.

    Neither the Model 3 nor an eventual/perhaps a RHD Bolt will directly do much for the electrification of vehicles in Australia. That is until the US price moves down to around $30,000 when the $7,500 federal tax credit expires.

    The US made Chevy Volt was priced about $65,000 on the road in Australia for a configuration that had a MRRP of about $43,000 US. That was in the days of parity foreign exchange rates. Australia is now at at least a 25% disadvantage now. Tesla might spend a lot less per car in marketing though.

    A Model 3 with the Supercharger fee plus the configuration people actually buy puts it in the same ball park. The same goes for the Bolt as a lower volume RHD model with the cost of the fast charging configuration.

    So waiting expectantly for the US tax credit to expire, and for Nissan and Renault to do more in the ‘peoples’ car market segment.

    From a very happy Holden Volt owner, wishing for the electric range of the 2016/17 model