A Word On Tesla’s Survivability Under Trump

7 months ago by Tesla Mondo 45

newman

A WORD FROM NEWMAN SECURITIES

Here’s a good, concise article about Tesla’s survivability under President Heat Miser. TeslaMondo will make it even more concise here.

  1. Solar is pretty safe. State governments control net metering. And the 30 percent federal reimbursement for solar insulation was a Republican gig (Bush) with enduring bipartisan support. Plus, costs are falling so fast that the math will soon make sense even without that 30 percent.
  2. Fuel efficiency standards. Will they evaporate? If so, ICEs won’t necessarily become more piggish because customers still value fuel economy. Efficiency still bespeaks good engineering. But if they do become more piggish, so be it. Tesla smells even fresher.
  3. EV incentives were going away soon anyway.
  4. Trade barriers with Mexico will cause agita in Detroit, but not Fremont.
  5. Tesla makes desirable stuff. That’s not in the article, but it should be. Raw desire trumps all, even Trump.

screen-shot-2016-11-11-at-8-26-56-amSo let TSLA quiver for a while, under the gaze of Heat Miser. Model 3 is making its way to home plate. The outfielders are backing up. The culmination of Master Plan Part 1 is nigh. And, you may recall, even Heat Miser was open to compromise. An American company is making the rest of the world look dumb. This makes Heat Miser look good.

*Editor’s Note: This and other Tesla-related posts appear on TeslaMondo. Check it out here.

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45 responses to "A Word On Tesla’s Survivability Under Trump"

  1. John Rosevear says:

    Also, and maybe most importantly for Tesla’s car business and EVs generally: Global pressures and investment trends already in motion => cheaper EVs over time (relative to equivalent ICEs) no matter what happens in the US over the next four years.

    We may not be quite *at* the EV tipping point now, but it’s in sight. That wasn’t true 2-3 years ago.

    (One quibble: US-MEX trade barriers could cause *some* agita in Fremont. Tesla depends on many of the same suppliers that Detroit does, and the suppliers have a lot of manufacturing in MEX too.)

  2. Loboc says:

    The US is no longer the world leader in automotive. Especially EVs. Whatever Trump does or does not will have little effect in the pace and adoption of EVs worldwide.

    1. georgeS says:

      don’t kid yourself Loboc. Trump can have a huge effect. California drives all of this with CARB. As Nix has reminded us before Trump could get EPA to stop granting California a waiver on setting it’s own emissions limits. The ZEV mandate goes away. Credits go away. Anyone that thinks Trump will have a benign influence is grossly misleading themselves. What did Trump say: “Renewables are for idiots”.

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Indeed.

        And many countries point to the USA’s lack of action on climate change as an excuse for their own inaction. To claim that what the USA does in this regard has little effect on the world is just as isolationist as Trump is.

        Despite Elon Musk’s desire to colonize Mars, we have only one planet to call home. What one person or one region does ultimately effects everyone else.

      2. Tim says:

        I doubt it. While it’s true that the EPA could impact CARB, it doesn’t mean California wouldn’t just solve it in a different way. There’s nothing blocking a state from using the automobile registration and driver licensing system to incentivize these things.

        There are plenty of regulatory and tax-based ways a state can do these things. And Tesla specifically uses California for its manufacturing, so there could simply be a tax break related to the manufacturing piece.

        I’m in the camp of least-happy-people about Trump becoming President and that narcissistic demagogue will experience the limits of the office.

    2. Yogurt says:

      Yep the US is no longer the worlds leader in many areas as we have outsourced core knowledge plus we no longer work as hard since multi culturism has changed American values…
      Re engineering carsfor the EU and America is expinsevie and as long as EU and China have stricter emissions and fuel economy America wont stray too far aside from buying SUVs…
      Those renewable idiots inclide Apple Walmart and other huge companies who say they care but truth be told renewables are cheaper and Trump may temporaily slow them down but they will not be stoped…

      1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

        Yogurt said:

        “…we no longer work as hard since multi culturism has changed American values…”

        Hmmm, do the Japanese also no longer work as hard because “multi-culturalism” has changed Japanese values? 🙄

        I think you’ve spent way too much time listening to the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter.

        The actual reason that the “work ethic” has declined in the richest first-world countries, and the sense of entitlement has grown all out of proportion, is that it’s human nature for people who live in a rich culture to become spoiled.

        1. MDEV says:

          Really multiculturalism is bad, well operation paper clip brought the best science minds after IIWW and that is why you are able to use most of technology today, and less you think they were originally born in Kansas went to Europe and them brought back to US with pardon for their crimes in exchange for work.

          1. Tim says:

            Always remember that the term “multiculterallsm” is just a euphemism for “not white”. It’s pure racism. And we need to start calling people for what they are. In this case, a neo-nazi.

      2. Paul Smith says:

        “we no longer work as hard since multi culturism has changed American values” Hahaha, funny. Multiculturalism is what keeps America alive. The immigrants are some of the hardest working, and as far as education and brains? Check the research labs and try to find someone without a heavy accent, mostly Asian.

    3. SparkEV says:

      If US is not the world leader in EV, who is? I saw some Chinese EV in Forbes article, but they’re nowhere close to Tesla or GM.

      1. Hauer says:

        You are aware how much of the “electric” part is done by GM??

      2. Nix says:

        China is crushing the US in electric passenger vehicle sales, and utterly dwarfing us in electric 2-wheel transportation. With companies like BYD now being a sales leader in China. Nissan/Renault is also having massive global sales.

        There are lots of stories here on insideev’s that talk about sales outside the US. I suggest you goto the archives.

        Whatever nation successfully transitions their transportation sector the most off of oil by the time the next set of oil price spikes hit, wins. They will have a massive economic advantage.

        1. Rob Stark says:

          BYD is crushing selling PHEVs with inferior battery tech that rarely get plugged in because they get dibbs on Chinese license plates. And BYD is protected behind a 25% tariff wall. Using that protected base to build capacity for electric buses outside of China is not being world class.

          The Alliance depends on subsidies to sell cheap EVs cheaply.

          Tesla sells world class EVs that are desirable at full MSRP but uses subsidies to push the demand curve. Claiming anyone other than Tesla is the worldwide leader in BEVs is laughable.

  3. shawn marshall says:

    Renewables should compete fairly in the market. This country is $20,000,000,000,000 in debt. No need to give fancy discounts to the well heeled so they can fool themselves about CO2, a beneficial gas.

    1. georgeS says:

      shawn:
      “Renewables should compete fairly in the market. No need to give fancy discounts”

      Give me a break. You are kidding yourself. The amount of subsidies we have given to oil and gas thus far make renewable subsidies look like a drop in the bucket.

    2. Jeff leach says:

      20,000,000,000,000 in debt. That’s a true fact. CO2 a beneficial gas???? I work at a refinery and in no way is CO2 a beneficial gas that’s hysterical lol
      It just gets reduced through metabolization with plants

    3. Hauer says:

      The “beneficial” gas already has seemingly damaged some brains already.

    4. Get Real says:

      For all the climate change deniers like shawn marshall out there that are living in a Trumpian euphroric high where physics don’t matter, even the Koch heads own study found that man-made global warming is happening-rapidly!

      http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2011/1021/Climate-study-funded-in-part-by-conservative-group-confirms-global-warming

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/connor-gibson/charles-koch-admits-clima_b_7153084.html

      http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/global-warming/climate-deniers/koch-industries/

    5. Tim says:

      I will take someone complaining about debt and deficits seriously when it includes a statement about significantly reducing military expenditures. Until then, you’re not serious.

      1. Timmy says:

        Thank you.

      2. speculawyer says:

        The GOP has absolutely NO moral high ground on deficits/debt. Reagan, Bush, and Bush created MASSIVE deficits & debt. Clinton and Obama slashed deficits.

        That is documented history. It drives me crazy that people don’t realize this . . . instead they just go with what people SAY instead of what they actually do.

    6. speculawyer says:

      Fossil fuels should compete fairly in the market. They should capture and sequester every single molecule of toxic pollution and climate-changing greenhouse that they emit into our shared atmosphere.

      Until they do that, we should tax them to pay for that damage and/or continue to incentivize clean energy sources.

  4. ffbj says:

    Maybe you mean agitation, and just left out the tion, part of that word.
    (with Mexico will cause agita).

    1. Timmy says:

      Either you do not know that ‘agita’ is a word, or I (for one) do not know what you mean.

  5. David Murray says:

    I think the momentum is already too strong for Trump to do anything about. And seriously, we don’t really know what his agenda is regarding EVs. At this point I haven’t heard a peep out of him about it. Sure, we know his stance on climate change. And to be honest, he might have just been saying that to gain votes from the Republicans since he knows a huge amount of those are climate-change deniers.

    Even though Mitt Romney did not care for Tesla, there is a lot at this point for Trump to get behind. Specifically, he could tout the fact that it is an American made brand, and one that is even exported internationally. If he wanted to, he could even go so far as to say American fueled.

    So, I don’t think Tesla is likely in any danger from Trump. However, what about the other auto-makers? Well, they may be lobbying to get the EPA requirements reduced or eliminated. But as long as Tesla is still on track to deliver Model 3 to a huge number of eager buyers, the other auto makers will still look dumb if they don’t have any competing products. Right now they are getting along by putting out compliance cars and “me too” products. But once the Model 3 starts sucking up all of their customers, they are going to really have to compete. And that’s where the free market will do its job. They’ll have to build competing products or die. We know Tesla won’t stop at the Model 3. Next they’ll have an affordable SUV and a pickup truck. GM and Ford will be crapping their pants if they don’t have something to compete with that.

    So while admittedly, the government can do things to incentivize EV growth, at this point Tesla is the only thing we need to keep the rest of the auto manufacturers in line.

    1. Nix says:

      You will never hear any legislation done to kill green energy programs as direct attacks against EV’s. It will always, always be done under the guise of it being “pro-free market” and “pro-energy”, and “Anti-regulation”. They may even give lip service to EV’s and other green energy, while at the same time gutting the programs.

      That way they can fool the most gullible of their followers. Even those who might even own EV’s.

    2. Kdawg says:

      “there is a lot at this point for Trump to get behind. Specifically, he could tout the fact that it is an American made brand, and one that is even exported internationally. If he wanted to, he could even go so far as to say American fueled.”
      ———-
      However you’re assuming he cares about America. Remember, what matters most to Trump is what helps Trump. So if he has a large personal holding in Tesla stock, I don’t imagine him doing them any favors.

  6. Scott Franco says:

    Just say to yourself “I lost”, and move on.

    1. Timmy says:

      Advice from repeated personal experience doing the same, we assume.

    2. speculawyer says:

      The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.

  7. Nelson Richlen says:

    I think the biggest reason Tesla has nothing to fear is that they are built in the US. Trump’s whole campaign was about manufacturing in the US. Trump is a lot more pragmatic than the previous (current) 2 presidents.

    What might not survive is the $7500 credit. However, I am wondering if EV prices are slightly inflated because of the credit and that prices will probably drop after the $7500 goes away.

    1. Kevin C. says:

      That’s a really good point.
      It’s only human nature to ‘game the system’.

    2. Timmy says:

      The credit will survive because repealing it would constitute a tax increase, which is vorboten by the Norquist pledge that all Rs sign. Plus, it has a sunset provision. No worries at’all.

  8. krona2k says:

    Even if Tesla was to go bankrupt tomorrow I think it’s too late to stop this.

    GM seem committed (I know some people disagree).

    Renault-Nissan are in.

    BMW seemed undecided but I think they’re ok.

    VW are making all the right noises, esp since dieselgate, need to execute now.

    Toyota, Honda and Mazda are throwing in the towel with resisting plug-ins.

    Hyundai seem committed now.

    Trump can’t crush this, and since it’s a pathological liar might not even want to anyway.

    1. a-kindred-soul says:

      You forget China. They are ahead of the US in all things renewable now. And they will start earning money with it worldwide soon.

    2. speculawyer says:

      Yeah, I’m taking a wait & see attitude. What he has said on the campaign trail is some horrible anti-science nonsense.

      But on the other hand, he is a known con man that just spews likes that he knows his audience wants to hear. He’s a BS artist.

      So who the F knows what he really does? I think all we can do is watch, wait, and push back when he does bad things.

  9. Get Real says:

    I think the “look at the positive side” people here are VASTLY underestimating the Trump’s pathological tendencies regarding clean tech as evinced by his pure, unadulterated hatred of wind energy:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-scottish-wind-farms-231741

    https://heatst.com/politics/donald-trump-obama-wind-bird/

    Also, if you look at his VERY anti-environmental, fossil fool attack dogs for advisors/cabinet picks you will see his true intentions regarding all things clean tech including EVs:

    http://www.thedrive.com/news/6142/tesla-and-spacex-targeted-by-alt-right-superpac?xid=hl

    http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-epa-climate-science-myron-ebell-2016-11

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-a-climate-skeptic-to-enforce-environmental-laws/
    etc, etc, etc.

    I personally don’t think he can stop clean tech and EVs but he could certainly do alot of damage in a fairly short amount of time.

    I’m sure that ALEC style legislation will kill all clean tech/EV incentives and start putting punitive taxes on EVs and other unneccessary burdens on clean tech while at the same time environmental regulations will be gutted and huge new subsidies will flow to the fossil fool companies as “winners” of this election.

    Of course there will also be laggard auto companies willing to play along with his anti-environmental extremism in order to sell more high-profit ICE trucks and SUVs to be used mostly as solo commuters to desk jobs.

    However, progress cannot be stopped in the long run and places like China and Europe will continue to advance clean tech and EVs and reap the rewards at our expense and competitiveness.

    1. K A Cheah says:

      You are absolutely correct donald trump’s administration will set back usa a century behind peer countries in europe and in asia in the current leadership of technological advancement in advanced science and technology implementation and deployment, that is how trump will make “america great again” by going backwards by a hundred years by taking money from oil, gas and coal fossil industries’ lobby to promote and revive their use, in order to pollute the usa and the world’s common atmosphere with toxic smogs and global warming co,no & co2, no2 greenhouse noxious pollutants and gases in the process.

      So make sure, you all buy tesla model 3 options with the special advance air filter that can filter out pm10 or lesser micro pollutants and neutralize toxic gases to live in good health for all and your children even though clean air and clean water will be more precious than ever before as you face the reality of the said trump’s evil and hideous administration (with the said ugly fossil industries lobby’s key proponents appointed into the key posts of his cabinet) of the usa supported by the most ignorant and selfish red states’ voters.

      1. John says:

        Good Lord, a CENTURY?? I love all the doom-sayers who come out of the woodwork, with the vision of EXACTLY how the unknown is gonna unfold. The EV/alternative energy genie is already out of the bottle. Absolutely there are attempts to suppress and delay the inevitable from the dying oil industry, but they can’t delay forever. I have solar on my house, NV Energy turns up the price on my kWh credit. Temporarily is angers me, but then the new Powerwall 2 comes out. It’s just a big chess game and all the old technologies are running out of pawns.

        Relax, all this stuff is bigger than one man. He can roll back subsidies on alternative energy and EV’s, and the only thing that will happen is those industries will get even more creative in response. Look at Elon, all he’s ever done is constantly evolved to deal with those who constantly place artificial barriers in his way. I think he likes the challenge, he’s the smartest guy in the room, and him and those others like him have it figured out- regardless of the barriers..

  10. zll says:

    You know, instead of just bashing the naysayers, perhaps Tesla would be better to take a good look at themselves buck-up with their Model 3 delivery.

    They are getting themselves side tracked with the falcon-wing door, pursuing autonomous driving, and now with the Solar City fiasco…..while news about the Model 3 delay(analyst say) is being leaked out.

    Just a reminder, Chevy Bolt is coming out next month…..

    1. Tim says:

      The Bolt might impact the Leafut the Model 3, doubtfully.

  11. speculawyer says:

    He’s mister green Christmas, he’s mister sun
    He’s mister heat blister, he’s mister 101

    LOL! It makes total sense give their similar hair and their effects on the climate.

    I’m stealing that.

  12. EV start up says:

    I hope a Cat5 Hurricane wipes out Herr Humpty Trumpy’s Mar-lag-go…. or WTF its called.

    EV’s industry creates higher paying Tech JOBS then the Coal Industry.
    Problem is those Hillbillies can’t read or write to past 8th grade AND want GOVERMENT (Republican) to bail them out by “promising” them a job back down in a dirty dangerous coal mine.