By 2020, Tesla Could Be Selling 5 Electric Models Simultaneously

3 years ago by Eric Loveday 65

Tesla Model X

Tesla Model X

Original Tesla Roadster

Original Tesla Roadster

It’s a possibility.

Here’s what we know for sure.

Tesla will continue to produce the Model S, so it’s guaranteed to be around in 2020, but possibly in its second generation.

The Tesla Model X will go on sale shortly.  It too will be here in 2020, likely still in its first generation.

The Tesla Model 3 is, according to Tesla, still on track for a 2017 launch, which means that 3 years later in 2020, it’ll definitely be available and still in its first generation.

Now, moving onto the lesser knowns, we’ve got the next-generation Tesla Roadster (likely to be called the Tesla Model R or just Tesla R), which we expect to see launch just before 2020.

Then we’ve got the Tesla Model C (or compact Tesla) coming, probably in 2020 – although we have to say this is the ‘mystery’ car of the bunch. This electric would undercut the Model 3’s price and be positioned to compete with the likes of the entry-level electric vehicles out there, such as the Nissan LEAF.

Add ’em all up and you arrive at 5 Teslas available to choose from in 2020.  Which would you pick?

Tesla Model S In Hong Kong

Tesla Model S In Hong Kong

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65 responses to "By 2020, Tesla Could Be Selling 5 Electric Models Simultaneously"

  1. James says:

    Major game changer:

    Tesla full-sized truck!

    1. Schmeltz says:

      What you said, James. Out of the choices given though, Model 3 for me.

    2. Mikael says:

      I’m hoping for a truck ban instead (or taxes on weight, emissions and motor power to make it too expensive for anyone to own). That would be a game changer for real.

      1. scott franco says:

        Exactly, its not to late for us to follow in venezuela’s footsteps.

    3. Spec9 says:

      Meh. Use PHEV technology for trucks.

  2. AddLightness says:

    I would guess that there will be a crossover based on the Model III before there will be a smaller car produced on a new platform. It seems like I remember Tesla already saying that it would be the case. Tesla knows they that need to build cars that people want to buy, therefore I’m hopeful that after the 3rd gen sedan and crossover (Model Y?) they will build a truck so that they can put a dent in that markets huge emissions. Why build a compact electric car to replace 40 mpg gas cars that are using half the fuel than full size trucks while also being a smaller market that already has affordable electric competitors such as the Leaf?

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      There are huge markets for long range (up to 400 miles) electric compact cars that have optional performance package. E.g. Mercedes A45 AMG needs an all electric competitor.

      Not everyone wants a full sized luxury limousine, but they are perfectly satisfied with fun luxury compact EV that has incredible handling and performance.

      Therefore a truly compelling compact EV is very important project for Tesla. There is absolutely nothing green in Tesla’s philosophy but it is all about building cars that are better than their ICE alternatives. Tesla has merely scratched the surface of the potential of EV drivetrain.

      1. Rexie says:

        On the contrary, a compact and affordable EV would be very appealing to the masses who do not have other choice that to buy all those gas guzzlers used cars from another age. Firstly for the tag price, and second for the huge economy of running an EV with no oil.
        It would be a great success! But Tesla cannot build millions of cars a year…for now…

        1. Rob Stark says:

          The Model 3 is a compact.

          Gas guzzlers are not cheap to buy nor operate.

          There are alternatives already in cars like the Fit and Corolla.

          A Tesla full size truck and SUV getting more F-150s and Suburbans off the road does more for the environment and Western energy independence than replacing high mpg small cars with Teslas. And gives Tesla higher profit margins.

          1. Mikael says:

            The Model 3 is a full size large car. Not remotely close to anything compact about it.

            1. Jouni Valkonen says:

              Technically Model 3 will be a compact executive car. And its closest competitor will be well equipped Audi A4 Quattro.

            2. Mint says:

              Where did you get that notion?

              The Model 3 is a competitor to the 3-series, C-class, A4, G37, etc. These are compact executive cars, not “full size large cars”.

              They want it to have a much smaller frontal area and weight than the Model S, such that it can use a 20% smaller battery pack and still hit 200 miles.

      2. scott franco says:

        I would not buy a 400 mile car, it would be to heavy and not worth the price. I would buy a 70-10KWH truck or light truck, mainly because thats what it would take to make a reasonable tow vehicle (unless of course the venezuelan truck ban takes place).

      3. Spec9 says:

        “There are huge markets for long range (up to 400 miles) electric compact cars”

        Are you crazy? No such car has ever been sold. The closest thing is the Tesla with a much shorter range and it gets (rightly) critiqued for being out of the price range of most consumers.

        1. Rexie says:

          It’s not because it has never been sold that it cannot be done. You would be a very lousy Steve Jobs 🙂

          The Tesla Roadster will get 400 miles this year… so…

  3. Jouni Valkonen says:

    In addition to a pick-up truck for American markets, Tesla needs also a mid sized AWD SUV in Model 3 -platform for global markets. This is essential and I guess that we will get a prototype in around early 2017 or right after 3.

    Tesla also needs two or three additional gigafactories by 2020 and also two or three additional car factories at least in Europe and in China. And perhaps a factory in Texas too for pick-ups.

    Tesla has already promised that they will open a car factory in Europe by 2018.

  4. Andrei says:

    Model C

  5. Anthony says:

    A model 3-based CUV.

    1. Josh says:

      Model Y. This is pretty much confirmed.

      I would also guess that the truck makes an appearance before a compact.

      So the lineup is:
      S
      E
      X
      Y
      R

      1. Josh says:

        P.S. I don’t know how to fit the truck into the lineup naming scheme. I am guessing Model T won’t happen 😉

        1. scott franco says:

          Model U (utility).

          1. Josh says:

            Ok, so:

            S
            3
            X
            Y
            U
            R

      2. The Model E is now renamed the 3 using III rotated to simulate a ‘3’, but the thought was there = Sexier!

      3. Huffster says:

        How about call the truck an exclamation mark?
        So,

        S
        3
        X
        Y
        R
        !

  6. JRMW says:

    After attaining a more cost conscious option, More than anything Tesla needs a front (and then all) wheel drive offering.

    I live in Minneapolis and want a BEV. Tesla and BMW i3 are real wheel drive. That’s a no go for me. Contrary to popular belief we don’t usually get a ton of snow (we are cold not snowy!) But when we do I see all the real wheel drive cars stuck in the alleys and stuck in the road. Especially the BMW 3s and 5

    1. JRMW says:

      Wish I could edit.
      Anyway since Tesla and i3 are out that leaves me with the Leaf which I find to be the ugliest car ever built in the history of earth. I know others like it but I hate it

      Thus waiting for the Golf and MB b class to be soldin MN (crossing fingers). If they don’t come will lease the Leaf for two years until something less hideous comes along

      If the i3 were FWD I would have bought it.
      If the Volt could be driven electric only I would consider it (ICE comes on under 25 degrees.)

      Tesla would knock sales out of the park with a small AWD CUV or SUV with 125-150 range if they can keep price under $50k.

      They would be the biggest car manufacturer in earth if they could do it for $35k.(OK hyperbole)

      1. GSP says:

        You might want to consider the Volt with a modified outside air temperature sensor to prevent the ICE running below 14 deg F.

        GSP

        1. GSP says:

          After reading more comments, I suggest getting a Model X for your DW!

          I think the X will be a really outstanding vehicle, especially given your AWD needs. You will be glad you spent the extra money.

      2. scott franco says:

        “Leaf which I find to be the ugliest car ever built in the history of earth”

        1. Cube.
        2. Soul.
        3. Metro (ah the classics).

        1. Spec9 says:

          Gremlin, AMC Pacer, Aztec,

        2. basementman says:

          You forgot the Aztek…

        3. Fgrindle says:

          The Model X prototypes have not been spotted yet. It seems that there will be a delay.

      3. Dan says:

        MY2013+ Volts can be set not to engage the engine at temperatures above 15F.

        That said, have you considered a Fusion Energi? Because if your preference would be to use a Volt sans-ICE in sub-freezing temperatures, then you must have a VERY short commute (as you would be fortunate to get 20 miles of range in those conditions). If your commute is that short, a Fusion Energi in EVNow mode might solve your problems.

      4. ModernMarvelFan says:

        Think of ICE coming on under 25 degree as auxilary heater or a fuel heater.

        it is ON for heating, NOT for propulsion.

        Since ICE generates mostly heat and very little motion, it is an accurate description.

    2. Josh says:

      AWD will be standard next year on the Model X. The suspicion is that it will be optional on the S at some point.

      Once they have developed the tech, it would be hard to imagine that they wouldn’t include it as an option on future vehicles.

      1. Jouni Valkonen says:

        My guess is that Model 3 will be offered as AWD as standard. Electric AWD is not significantly more expensive as two electric motors cost almost as much as twice as powerful single electric motor (+ inverter).

        My guess is that the added cost of electric AWD is about 500–1000 dollars per vehicle and as there is no need for compromises in fuel economy, people eagerly will pay 1000 dollars or more premium for AWD.

        1. scott franco says:

          Actually AWD flows naturally from in-wheel electric drive.

        2. Josh says:

          I see you point with electric dual motor AWD efficiency, but I still think the standard Model 3 will not have AWD.

          They are going to have a real challenge scaling down to a $35k starting price. I think the base model will be a totally stripped down version. A more common purchase price of Model 3 will look something like this:

          $35k base
          $5k 275 EPA mile battery
          $2k Tech Package
          $4k AWD
          $3k Finishes (Paint, leather, trim, seat heaters, etc.)

          $49k Total

          It will still sell like hot cakes with that content, at that price.

        3. Spec9 says:

          I seriously doubt that. The Model 3 is supposed to be a low price vehicle and adding a second motor & controller to the car is certainly not going to keep the price down.

    3. Rob Stark says:

      You need to get your mind out of the ICE box.

      An ICE RWD car has all the weight in front where the ICE and huge transmission are located but the traction is in the rear.

      Tesla has the engine,inverter and reduction unit in the back. And most of the weight is along the bottom of the car in the battery.

      With modern traction control,yaw control, and ABS there is no traction benefit to FWD in the snow but there is still torque steer.

      IF Tesla does make a tiny car in will be like the Smart ED. Rear engined and rear wheel drive.

      1. Micke says:

        There is one huge advantage of FWD and AWD, and that is the regen braking.
        I suspect that the extra wear on the back tires on a tesla is because of hard regen, it is more efficient to brake with the front wheels.

      2. JRMW says:

        Rob,
        Thanks for the info
        The Tesla forum has mixed reviews of the Tesla S in winter although generally positive. Interestingly the Roadster does better than the S in snow

        Unlike some consumers I absolutely cannot get stuck. I’m a doctor and must get to work.

        My partner has a Tesla and we had to push him out of our parking lot on super snowy days. I can’t have that. He’s never on call so no biggie. However perhaps he simply had the wrong tires on the car

        There is a reason why Audi is by far the best luxury seller in MN. AWD

        you’ll have better luck convincing Minnesotans that 80 mike range is sufficient than RWD is OK in winter even if both are true

        We heard the same spiel from BMW and Mercedes over their RWD offerings in the past and then watched as they all got stuck city

        I’ll test drive the Tesla with snow tires and follow my partner’s progress

        If love to hear Tesla owners experience in snow (6-12 inch snowstorm stuff not just snow on the ground)

        1. Josh says:

          If the Model S (+$5k – $10k) price range is manageable for you, reserve a Model X and wait for next year. You will get the extra ground clearance for winter snow and AWD.

          If they do release an AWD Model S at the same time, you can always cancel/switch your reservation.

          1. JRMW says:

            Josh
            I absolutely love Tesla and the model x is exactly what I want BUT I don’t want to pay $100k for a car.
            Part of my goal with buying an EV is to encourage a people’s EV.
            Tesla already has the demand and vision and therefore I want to encourage other manufacturers like Nissan BMW Volkswagen Mercedes and even shortsighted (on this issue) Toyota

            But I am a frugal guy and that’s the #1 reason why the X is probably out.
            However DW wants it and DW often gets what DW wants

            Again thanks for the informative discussion

            1. Josh says:

              Glad to help with the discussion.

              Haha, can’t say no to DW! Just remember the $100k you spend will go toward developing Model 3 😉

            2. Phr3d says:

              yes to AWD, that is Why DW wants only the X, it replaces an AWD that she described as ‘driving like it’s on rails’ and will never go back — same scenario, Not arriving is Not an option..
              We have 4 conti snows on, as well, so it should always be considered, but she talked herself Out of the MS, since it has Race Car Power.

              good luck, I know mine is eager for Her X and she is definitely Not a car guy, LOL. but Yeah, we were under the impression that the X would be sorta’ the same price – all indications are that it is gonna be Lots.

              (Youtube has countless vid of people in horror-snow (and Good snow-tires) getting around fine, but like you, she said, “yeah, that’s what 2WD BMW owners said too”)

        2. Jouni Valkonen says:

          Tesla has implied quite clearly that the main competitor of Model 3 will be Audi A4 Quattro. The base price of A4 Quattro is $35 000 and this is also Tesla’s target price. So I guess that AWD will come as standard with Model 3 also. Electric AWD is much cheaper and much more fuel efficient than ICE AWD.

        3. Trace says:

          So all of us floridians and sun belters have to put up with torque steer, boring driving and seriously truncated performance of fwd vs. RWD because you have to live in the frozen tundra. Is that it, Doc?

    4. Rexie says:

      On snow, you have more grip with a front wheel drive but if you slide it is much harder to control than a rear wheel drive. The best is Model X 🙂

      1. Rexie says:

        FWD have more grip because of the weight of the ICE, but this become irrelevant in an EV, even more when the weight of the batteries is distributed equally and the electric motor sits on the rear wheels.

  7. EVerywhere says:

    In that time frame I predict Tesla will get bought or Elon will step down as CEO to move on to starting another company.

    1. Rob Stark says:

      When Elon steps down as CEO of Tesla he will remain Chairman and keep a title like Chief Product Architect. He has already said as much.

      He will still direct the big picture of Tesla and make the critical product decisions. And leave all the boring paper work and finance stuff to someone else.

      1. EVerywhere says:

        Yep, I don’t disagree at all with this. Elon is a big picture, big idea guy and would have the most impact on the world by eventually handing over the reigns and starting new ventures.

    2. Josh says:

      I can’t see Tesla getting bought (by an automaker) anymore. Their market cap has gone beyond a justifiable purchase/merger now. The only chance would be a purchase by a non-auto company (Google, Amazon, some other crazy tech company). Even that would only be if Musk wanted to cash out since he controls ~25% of the stock.

      Nothing is impossible, but my thoughts on this have changed as the value went from $3 billion to $35 billion.

      1. Jouni Valkonen says:

        Indeed, about a year ago, it was uncertain if Tesla will become a new Porsche or new BMW. Now it seems that will become at least new BMW or the leading luxury vehicle manufacturer.

        Then open question is if Tesla can become new Volkswagen? I guess that others will catch up, before Tesla is ready to enter VW Golf’s mass markets and no more free money is lying on the table.

        It is good to remember that Tesla is not that particularly “innovative” company, but it just happened to stumble upon an unexploited market niche as no traditional car manufacturer tried to make a compelling long range EV.

        Perhaps it was due to prejudices against EVs, but even some sort of conspiracy is possible, as established car manufacturers wanted to protect their established market segments. Certainly the Big Oil had their financial interests at stage!

        1. EVerywhere says:

          “Free gas” for life (in the form of their supercharger network) wasn’t innovative? Building the worlds safest vehicle for any subcategory didn’t require innovation? There is more innovation happening at Tesla than at all other car makers combined.

  8. Priusmaniac says:

    I would like a Model S with 400 miles range or a “would be” BMW i5 with 150 miles and a Toyota style free piston micro rex.

  9. Brian says:

    I’ll take a Model III for the family, and a Model R for me, please 😀

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      Excellent choice. The Tesla Model 3 will be truly mindbogglingly compelling car and it will blow ICE cars out from the existence.

      We have seen electric super cars such as Mercedes SLS AMG ED, so Tesla’s new Roadster will probably be nothing new, but we have not seen what mid sized electric family car can do at best!

  10. ffbj says:

    JRMW is right on, as I live in the same area.
    Most people will only consider rwd as their summer car and then have a fwd winter beater.
    I just have the fwd winter beater as I only drive about 100 mi a month now. I drove 200 mi a day when I was working.
    Last Winter was a nightmare on the roads as a multiple inch early snowfall was ignored, not plowed, then it compacted and never warmed up enough to melt until April. The streets were a nightmare all Winter, as a result of this stupidity. RWD drives just don’t work here in the Winter, no, if, and, or buts. I welcome the move to AWD.

    1. Jouni Valkonen says:

      Electric AWD adds only very little to the cost of car (perhaps around 500–1000 dollars) and does not have significant impact on range. So I guess that Tesla will discontinue RWD option from Model S and Model 3 as early as 2015.

      I guess that electric AWD can even improve the range as it makes regenerative braking more efficient at low speeds. Today Tesla’s regen is cut off at speeds below c. 22 km/h.

  11. ffbj says:

    Lt. Eric Roeske with the Minnesota State Patrol said since Thursday’s storm started, State Troopers responded to 964 crashes statewide. They’ve also responded to 2,324 vehicles spun out or off the road, 1,082 stalls, 74 jack-knifed semis and 52 motorists needing assistance. They’ve responded to more than 4,400 total calls for service.
    Troopers said Friday the driving conditions are the worst they’ve seen in 25 years.
    MnDOT is working around the clock to clear the roads.
    “Every system is struggling today. City streets, county roads, it’s a parking lot. My driveay,” said Kevin Gutknecht with MnDOT.

  12. Spec9 says:

    5 Cars by 2020?

    I really doubt that. They currently sell 1 car. The would have to add more than a new car every other year. I just don’t see that happening. 2015 = Model X, 2017 = Model E (if we are lucky), 2019 = Something?, plus one more? I doubt it.

    Maybe if you count a modification to the original Roadster as a ‘new car’.

  13. jstack6 says:

    I’ll keep my bicycle based ELF thanks from OrganicTransit.com . It’s much more affordable and the most efficient. For longer trips with more people the Tesla C compact sounds affordable and efficient.

  14. Fgrindle says:

    The Tesla Model 3 is still on the drawing board.
    The prototype X is yet to be seen. Many delays and the Gigafactory to contend with.