2017 Will Be A Key Year For Tesla – Here’s Why

6 months ago by Steven Loveday 74

Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Solar Roof

Tesla Model 3 and Solar Roof

We have said before that Tesla is an extremely busy company, and CEO Elon Musk surely has his hands full. It’s actually quite astounding that he manages to keep up with the barrage of Tweets, and the company itself has been able to handle issues as quickly as we have seen as of late.

With that said, and as Teslarati rightly pointed out recently, it’s only going to get more hectic and overwhelming this coming year for the company and CEO that have risen to celebrity status. Let’s take a look at what lies ahead.

Tesla Gigafactory expansion continues (December progress shown via YT/Matthew Roberts)

Gigafactory expansion continues (December progress shown via YT/Matthew Roberts)

Tesla just recently started the process of incremental updates to Autopilot 2.0. All cars that come off the assembly line now have hardware with full self-driving capability, and over the course of 2017, Tesla will continue to update the vehicles’ software to make the cars fully autonomous, hopefully in line with regulatory approval.

Elon Musk’s goal is to have everything in place by the end of 2017. He said:

“Our goal is, we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York … from home in LA, to dropping you off in Times Square, and then the car will go park itself.”

Sometime in the midst of the Autopilot updates, as long as Tesla is on time, the first Model 3‘s will be delivered. In a perfect world, we could see deliveries begin as soon as the summer (~July). But, surely deliveries of some magnitude will be underway before the close of the year. This will mark the slow beginning of a 400,000 delivery adventure, which will stretch well into the next couple of years, if not more.

In order for this to happen, however, the busy has already begun. Musk and Tesla are emphasizing work on the “machine that builds the machine.” To reach production goals, Musk is aware that the factory needs to increase speed exponentially. He explained:

 “Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine — turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle.”

The company’s recent acquisition of German engineering firm, Grohmann is a major step in the right direction. Expansion plans for the Fremont factory have been approved, and expansion and construction are forever underway at the Tesla Gigafactory. Some Model 3 production will also take place at the Gigafactory. Not to mention choosing a site in Europe and breaking ground for a Gigafactory 2.

Tesla Powerwall 2.0

Tesla Powerwall 2.0

With the SolarCity merger in the books and Elon Musk’s solar roof unveiling out of the way, Tesla will be moving forward more briskly with that “new” facet of the company. The “Tesla Glass” solar shingles will become available in the U.S. in 2017 as well, and the Powerwall 2 product is also ready to go. Tesla will be taking care of the entire process, just the same as it does with its vehicles.

Meanwhile, the company is making a name for itself supplying Powerpacks to various island resorts and destinations. These areas are using the Powerpacks, along with solar arrays, to serve as supplements to local power or traditional generators. Some are actually going completely off-grid with such systems.

Added to this, Tesla is working on vehicles outside of its typical “consumer” market. Musk has already publicly stated that the company is working on a semi-truck, and a mini-bus. According to a Tesla blog post:

“In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicles needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.”

Tesla is also expected to reveal its pickup truck and the Model Y sometime in 2017. The Model Y will be a compact SUV, based on the Model 3. If all goes as planned, the infamous S☰XY model line will be complete.

Yes, there is much more ahead for Tesla than we have mentioned here. This is just a sampler platter of the heaping plate, and as soon as we think it’s too full, Elon Musk and company make yet another announcement. Watching it all play out will be a sight to see.

Source: Teslarati

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74 responses to "2017 Will Be A Key Year For Tesla – Here’s Why"

  1. Trollnonymous says:

    GOOD LUCK TESLA!!!

    1. Ls says:

      Tesla has another major challenge. Tesla’s current service organization is already under strain according to Model S owners. They will not be able to service a flood of Model 3s in a year or two if plans will follow action. Strangely Elon’s tweets are quiet about this issue. The lack of ability to service their cars quickly and efficiently can kill Tesla. Model 3 owners will be much less tolerant to accept poor quality and poor service.

    1. floydboy says:

      HA! Awesome!

  2. Trollnonymous says:

    “and then the car will go park itself.”

    I’m guessing there will be a dedicated parking spot for the car. What happens if it’s ICE’d?

    I went to the hospital for an appointment one day and all (12 of them) the charge spots were ICE’d. Green lined and well marked.

    Are people really that stupid and don’t read the signs?………YES! Yes they are!

    1. James says:

      Moving forward, these growing pains of electric personal transport need addressing. ICEing of charging spaces is one of the hurdles. Bigger is the need for charging infrastructure buildout. Fighting over available spots will increase and likely be fodder for negative news stories. Home charging for apartment and condo dwellers need be addressed much more also.

      1. Nix says:

        I have a feeling that the previously announced 350 kW and higher chargers are going to be the answer to apartment dwellers. They will likely have to find a station to charge the same way ICE car owners don’t charge at home either.

    2. speculawyer says:

      12 charger spots ICE’d? In what state? You should have called a towing company.

      1. Trollnonymous says:

        CORRECTION!
        It was 8 spots all ICE’d.

        CA, this was at a Kaiser facility multi level parking garage. I didn’t include the bottom 2 that were ice’d because they were also handicapped and the cars had appropriate licenses for handicap parking, so I figured that was OK?

        I thought maybe they weren’t online yet but they were powered up and I checked plugshare and they were up and someone already charged there….lol

        In this case we don’t need more spots, we need enforcement with deep financial repercussions.

        Heck, I don’t even think there is a law prohibiting it…..lol
        we need a Bill go pass to make it law and enforceable with teeth.

        1. jimijonjack says:

          What a bunch of inconsiderate swine…any and all charging stations occupied by an ICE vehicle should be an automatic tow away & fine!

        2. Stephen Hodges says:

          It would be good if there were some technical way of preventing ICE’s from blocking EV’s. I imagine Tesla’s version 3 supercharger will include the “snake” and be self-connecting…. a sign that says “Parking for vehicles with connections for 800 Volt Taser snake only” might do the trick 🙂

    3. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ sven says:

      It’s more likely that the ICE drivers read the signs and parked their ICE cars there despite the signs prohibiting ICE cars from parking there.

    4. Were these 12 SUPERCHARGER Spots at a Hospital? Wow! However – if they were just 12 L2 EVSE’s – Who Put them in, what was the signage on them, and who monitored the parking?

      I think – with all the Camera’s and connection capability on each of the current Tesla’s, the each of them could be used as Parking Meter Maids, by a Special Software feature that Elon and Team put in, that the car simply noted that the charging spots are blocked by ICE cars, or people/cars that are not charging, and connect to a number, submit the evidence, and have such vehicles both ticketed and towed, in a self regulating loop!

      Heck – I think I just created a New Tesla Division: ‘Tesla Parking Control’ – Which Farms out Data Collection for Parking Monitoring Services to local Police and Parking & Towing Companies! You just drive your Tesla to and by charging stations, and it automatically sets the wheels in motion to ‘De-ICE’ the charging Stations!

      Imagine – thousands of Autonomous (& Driven) Tesla’s monitoring EV Charging Stations, maybe even Wheel Chair / or other ‘Special’ Parking environments in such a manner! This could be whole new game in town! ‘Don’t mess with those Autonomous Tesla’s – they will Get you!’

      1. Trollnonymous says:

        They were not SC but AC L2 and I was wrong, there were 8 stations.

        I like your idea though. That would be easy revenue generation. Spin off a child division for the other charge stations for CCS/CHAdeMO/SAE J1772 stations and I bet you can rake in some Ca$hola!!!
        If you can get a red light ticket in the mail why not an ICEr ticket?

      2. Philip Reeve says:

        Excellent post, Robert. Thanks.

  3. speculawyer says:

    Seriously, 2017 will really be a make or break year for Tesla with the Model 3, the Gigafactory, the solar tiles, and the Buffalo solar PV factory all playing huge roles.

    There will also be a few new surprises.

    1. floydboy says:

      AGREED!

    2. Well since ‘Ford Killed SEX’ by not letting Tesla and Elon have his Model ‘E’, they also stopped ‘BE SEXY’ (like – if Tesla used the ‘B’ for Bus, and it would be strange to use the ‘S’ again – for Semi!)

      Maybe S3XY, can be joined by BOF? (Bus, Other, Freight)

      FOB (Freight On Board, …Or Freighter, Other, Bus!)

      [sorry – not so greatly inspired with creating good names and acronyms just now!]

      1. Rightofthepeople says:

        Not sure about the bus or the semi, but when Tesla announces the pickup truck they can call it “Model 2” so the new lineup of passenger vehicles will be:

        2 SEXY

        1. BenG says:

          Model 2 seems like it should be reserved for a future sub-compact “everyman’s” car that truly brings the Tesla to the masses.

    3. Bacardi says:

      Actually Tesla’s success does not depend on the TM3 deliveries but the actual production intent reveal…We want to the know if goals were met or exceeded, we want to see the “spaceship” interior/dash/hud, the supposed enlarged rear trunk and lastly, price…What are the standard features and what are options? Battery options range/cost? Will Musk say he had to raise the base MSRP due to the new AP system? Will the destination price increase? The reveal could lead to hundreds of thousands of more reservations or even reservation cancellations…

      He doesn’t even need to deliver the TM3, just needs to nail its reveal…

      1. Rich says:

        I believe Musk stated part 3 of the reveal would be in spring. Hopefully, we’ll get most of these details at that time.

  4. James says:

    Certainly nobody expects a production M3 in 2017. Really? No preproduction mules have been spotted testing anywhere and we haven’the been shown the final production version.

    I can see this development process easily stretching into 2018 and even into first deliveries at the end of 2018 and early mass production ramp up in 2019.

    We expect miracles, and I like the optimism, but good things will finally come to those who can wait. The big question is who will still be onboard, preorder-wise, when Tesla finally gets the 3 out the door.

    1. Daniel Zorrilla says:

      Put $100 on it?

    2. floydboy says:

      Au contraire, Mr Naysayer! Many people quite fully expect to see Model 3 production in 2017! I expect to see as many as 20,000 or more!

      1. ffbj says:

        You must be smoking your special blend again, from South of the border down Mexico way:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha1GT2tW9dc

        1. floydboy says:

          Mind you, these are’nt all production for customer cars! There are going to be validation testers, crash testers, pre-production run prototypes and such.

          But I firmly believe that production ready cars will be in the hands of customers BEFORE 2018, in more than mere token(less than 1000) numbers! Musk is SERIOUS about getting this thing right. I believe some of the negativity among us Tesla enthusiast, is just a defensive mechanism. Essentially ‘Hoping for the best’, ‘Planning for the worst’.

          1. Ziv says:

            floyd, 20k Model III’s of any type won’t be delivered until late 2018 at the very earliest. Cars aren’t like computers, you don’t tool up and deliver a huge amount in a short amount of time.
            I hope Tesla delivers more than a couple hundred III’s to California Tesla owners in 2017, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The III won’t get ramped up to the level the Model S is selling at this past year until mid-2018 and it won’t hit full production for another 6 to 9 months after that.
            Wishing won’t make it so.

          2. ffbj says:

            Sure, they could get it out before 2018, not 20k, more like a few hundred as you suggested when you came back to earth. Still, I hope for the best too. Have a great 2017.

          3. BenG says:

            I expect token deliveries of the 3 in 2017. Like the Model X in 2015. Probably less than 500 delivered, and most of those coming in December.

    3. M Hovis says:

      I tend to agree with James, but as a manufacturing engineer responsible for setting up numerous automated lines, I would rather be delayed with a line controlling the process, than pushing product out the door with the manufacturing process all over the place. Pencils down means the design boys are done. Now give the manufacturing engineers their due.

      20 years from now, no one will remember the CAPEX that is justly driving Wall St crazy right now. It’s gutsy, it’s aggressive, and I thinks it’s great.

    4. Murrysville EV says:

      I don’t see Model 3 production beginning in 2017; there is just too much to accomplish before then.

      Besides, they need to produce vehicles – hundreds of them – for test drive purposes. I will not buy my Model 3 before I can sit inside one and drive it. If Tesla insists otherwise, I’ll ask for my refund.

      1. jimijonjack says:

        Great! Get your refund and everyone else moves one up the line .

      2. Nix says:

        Murry — Tesla ordered the parts for 300 M3’s in late spring, and they began unit testing the production assembly line in October. So on top of their prototypes that customers have already had the chance to take test rides in, they will have plenty of cars.

    5. Doggydogworld says:

      I also expect production in late 2017. GM hand-built 55 prototypes 18 months before production because the Bolt contained a lot of “firsts” for them and LG. Those things aren’t firsts for Tesla.

      Tesla may have a few hand-built prototypes out there now (they aren’t that hard to hide). But I figure they’re mostly testing drive train components and such in Model S mules.

      GM built 200 ‘production-intent’ Bolts on the assembly line starting March 2016. Employees used them for daily driving and logged problems. I expect Tesla to build their first production intent cars in September/October. Unlike GM, Tesla will actually sell these cars. But the first 5000 or so will go to employees and “friends of Tesla” who will keep problems quiet. First sales to the general public will be early 2018, after they shake the bugs out.

    6. speculawyer says:

      I expect a handful of Model 3 cars to ship in December 2017.

      More normal production will probably be around March 2018.

      That’s my guesstimate.

      1. ffbj says:

        I think that’s more in the ballpark.

    7. “Certainly nobody expects a production M3 in 2017. Really? No pre-production mules have been spotted testing anywhere and we haven’the been shown the final production version.”

      Elon Never Said he would show the final version some 15 months ahead of production, like he kinda did with the Model X! He has from the beginning said that would be shown closer to production! Expect it by March, if it is not shown on January 4th, at the Gigafactory Event!

      And – do you think Elon is not incredibly aware that the Company and its future are dependent upon that Model 3 getting started Darn Well on Time, unlike all past vehicles, since instead of a 100 customers waiting – like for the Roadster, or maybe 12,000 for the Model S, or even the 20,000 for the Model X – he has now 400,000 (or maybe even some 600,000) reservations for the Model 3, and ALL EYES are on them now, the Vultures – he can see them circling, too!

      I expect – we will not see the Model 3 on the January 4th, 2017, Event at the Gigafactory, but we will see the Production of Cells Happening, and maybe even those who attend, get some samples to handle, if not take one home as a gift!

      Within 30-60 Days, there will be new 21-70 Cells to put in the New Beta Test Vehicles, (Remember – Elon said they would first go to Energy Storage Products, then to the Model 3), which will likely be built beginning in March 2017, with those parts he ordered for an initial 300 vehicles! (Remember that story? – “Citing sources familiar with the matter, Electrek says that over the past two months, the electric car maker has been ordering enough Model 3 parts to build a fleet of around 300 prototypes. – “http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/08/tesla-model-3-parts-order/ or this one – https://electrek.co/2016/08/01/tesla-model-3-parts-fleet-300-prototypes/ – or this one – http://www.thecountrycaller.com/49580-tesla-motors-inc-tsla-ordering-enough-model-3-parts-for-300-prototypes/)

      “The company is currently undertaking an expansion plan worth $1.26 billion at Tesla Factory in Fremont, CA for the assembly line of the Model 3. It plans to starts Model 3’s volume production by summer 2017 and probably the management will give production plan update during the second quarter’s earnings call” – also from ‘The Country Caller story linked above!

      I suspect, you will hear more, and sooner than at the Second Quarter Earnings Call, since that will be after the targeted July 1st, 2017, Production Start Date Goal!

  5. Another Euro point of view says:

    Sometimes I feel that reading news about car electrification is a bit like watching continents drifting. Interesting but the process is so painfully slow that one could basically read those news 30 minutes once a year and grasping more or less same info as all those reading every bit of news like this one. I mean, what will happen with Tesla in 2017 ? Well, just wait and see for god sake. Tesla sold about 950 cars last month in all Europe, an insignificant figure in that industry. Will it become significant in 2017 ? No it won’t. Will it become significant in 2018, maybe yes. So basically one would just need to come back reading EV news in March 2018 and see what happened meanwhile. Now I need to go back to watch my favorite continent drifting away, I am sure I missed a 0.0000000000000000000001 mm move. Or maybe instead I will go and enjoy my loved ones and real life, yes ! Smart move.

    1. Kan says:

      Great point, but you see how the revolutionary drivetrain and electronics that are very well implemented so far create a buzz.

      And yes, just like Edison’s freakish attempts at dicrediting AC current transmission, some of the naysayer comments are exasperating to say the least.

      Tesla is under the microscope, Big Oil and NADA are trying their best to keep the analog squareheads pawns to the dealer-service network, when we know that the much simpler electric cars will do great with just service centers.

    2. James says:

      True in a way, but we are not daily obsessing with nuance. The established car industry is a giant ship, changing course is not going to happen in five years. There is too much pushback. Imagine that gargantuan vessel trying to turn around amidst strong fighting currents.

      Billions upon billions of dollars are at stake in replacing and servicing complex, oily, smoking combustive oil burners. This easy money is a drug and the legacy automakers the dealers.

      If European companies would move toward electrification rather than be dragged there via government intervention (and Norway! haha), perhaps we could call them progressive. American and global car companies drag their collective feet and now are smelling blood in the water with a new administration inhabiting Washington. Oil corporations lick their chops and the established car associated companies gather their lawyers and lobbyists to kill the threat to their status quo.

      This slows EV process, but then there is Tesla. Even they admire Musk’s seemingly impossible goals. Mars may be afar off, but vanquishing the monster of fossil fuel addiction is approaching with building momentum. Like a snowball, Tesla’s influence, known as The Tesla Effect is not slowing. In fact, just as you go your way and ignore the process, it will sneak up on you as Tesla’s dot the landscape. If European automakers act like you they will miss the inevitable landslide that surely will occur.

      It’was like a volcano whose pressure is building out of plain sight. Geologists know it’s coming because they understand what is forcing the change. You may choose to ignore the boring lava dome creation on top, but when the entire industry blows up into a near panic stage…A fury of EV development and production will sweep the car industry. Look to that small crossover Model Y to really heat things up. Even the threat of a Tesla pickup truck keeps American auto bean counters up at night. The lawsuits, the lobbying, the dribbling out of 20 mile PHEVS cannot stave off the manifest destiny of electric transportation. When it blows it will happen faster than you can imagine now. I see Tesla as the Ford of the 20th century. Teslas as the Model T and Model As of our time.

      Don’the compare the silicon world of tech with the heavy industry of cars. This is a whole different cycle of industries, supply chains and timelines. GM has proven with Bolt EV just how quickly established auto giants can pivot if they want to. Just imagine how fast they will move when THEY HAVE TO!

      Spending time with family is naturally the best of priorities. That said, we who keep our ears to the ground are fascinated with the process that will end in this pending flood of electric action that will undoubtedly change the landscape. You, as casual observer will wake up one day and see you have missed a whole lot!

      Many of those understanding how this momentum builds to become the norm will profit in more ways than one.

      1. The Funny thing is, while I cruise this website, and some of it’s sister websites like electrek.co, chargedevs.com, greencarreports.com, or even evworld.com, autoblog green, and others, for interesting news on things electric outside of the car world, I have to do specific searches on them, like Electric Boats, and Electric Aircraft, since those things seem to be happening on a different wavelength, and while Tesla is leading the way in Autos, there are some interesting pushes from both small and large players in Electric Flight, like: NASA, Airbus, Siemens, Joby Electrec, Yuneeq, and more!

        Stuff that is happening in the world of Electric Boats, Solar Boats, Globe Circling Boats on Solar Power Alone, and the like, I always find interesting, but I tend to be more interested in Electric Flight, in addition to vehicles on the road, since having flown for many years, I know how expensive flight and flight training is, which is a barrier to many learning to fly.

        So reducing the cost to operate, maintain, and acquire an aircraft could do a lot to expose more people to flight for both personal, and professional benefits! Some People would be surprised at how much once can learn just by being elevated a few thousand feet above the ground and going places where otherwise you need Google Earth to be your eyes! (Like Clear Cut Logging, just outside of the few of the roads or freeways we usually travel on, Strip Mining, and other things all look more interesting from a small plane!)

        Electric Flight, Solar Flight,and Hybrid Gas/Electric Flight, all will go towards reducing the cost of flight in various ways, and when we can already see complete 48 hour plus, solar flights, albeit at slow speeds, within a fair period of time, such a flight element – will become a contest, not of completion, which has now been done with solar flights around the globe, but contests of Electric Flight for records of speed, greater endurance, altitude, and range!

        We already have Electric Aerobatic Aircraft being used as a test bed for higher power electric motors, and while flight times are short, they are sufficient for hard and aggressive systems testing, to see how they survive extreme flight loads, to test circuit, connection, and flight power management durability!

        There are now two seat Solar Powered Aircraft, which are approaching production, single seat ultralight aircraft – using components already developed for electric motorcycles, and I can just imagine how interesting it will be when Tesla puts on display their first Electric Aircraft!

        The English Channel has now been a water mark for electric flight crossings, from more than a few players, and will be yet for more!

        For Flight Training, we need mostly a 1.5-2.0 hour run time for primary flight training, and then a 3.5-5.0 hour flight time for cross country training, and flight rentals, of two seat and four seat aircraft. I expect that will be reached within the decade, if not sooner!

        Steps to that include things like Tesla with their Gigafactory, Solid State Cells, Other Battery Research, New Motor Power Densities, Electric Pickups, 500 mile Range Electric Cars, and light weight materials!

        All of which many players are experimenting with, and expanding developments! The i3, with Carbon Fibre, is expanding the use of this, and it will likely expand to other products in transportation as well, accelerating the cost reduction factors needed for other areas, like low cost aircraft materials!

        But Like a Damn, it is not the boring drip that excites, but the bursting at the end of many boring Drips, that scares a few people! While little things are seemingly insignificant, they each add up!

        I recently missed the next first flight of a new aircraft at work, due to my work schedule, although I did see a few videos of it, and this first flight is the start of a multi-aircraft flight testing phase, and even if the first flight was delayed, the culmination of that flight was the collection of many little things, multiple checks, and inspections, adjustments and feedback cycles, of which there will be many more over the next couple years, as the flight test fleet expands and the envelope of flights are expanded!

        While we see no Beta Test Mules from Tesla at this time, that does not necessarily mean they have not got any ready for cells from the Gigafactory, or even that Panasonic has no Pilot plant, in Japan, to make these cells at a smaller scale for basic testing, and there may even be vehicles being built now, and being tested in areas of the plant that is not seen by most employees, even nearly all of them. Some could also be trucked and shipped to far away places, and I keep getting told at work that people have seen a Tesla Model 3 in Traffic, up here in or near Toronto, Ontario, which – while I doubt, and have a hard time believing they were not simply mistaken, indicates that places even more remote from Fremont than such a place, would need to be chosen to keep a secret! (But – Such Places do Exist, are are reachable by Truck, Plane, and Ship – for Delivering Test Vehicles!)

        1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

          Thank you, Robert!

          It’s good to be reminded that the EV revolution isn’t just about passenger cars.

          1. wavelet says:

            ++
            One of the points I always make in discussions promoting EV cars is that a battery+motor drivetrain scales across a much larger range of transportation devices (from e-skateboards & e-bicycles through golf carts, snowmobiles, boats, trucks, ships, smaller planes…) than any other type, as well as a much larger range of device sizes.
            The same charging infrastructure, for the most part, can be used for all. And, of course, same battery chemistries & cells, even if there are differences in detail.

        2. ffbj says:

          James, RW, founders and premium members of the we do not write short posts club. Of course they are usually chocked full of useful information and insights.

    3. James says:

      Europeans live in a land that has become brainwashed that government and regulation changes everything quickly and efficiently. After all, the messy, “dangerous” world of free markets and competition is to be controlled and even avoided, their leaders preach. Socialism is ingrained in your culture, and in France and elsewhere (Greece and Spain, for starters) even some leaders now admit it doesn’t work.

      In truth it is deregulation and a free market that will skyrocket EV adoption. Consumers will understand that an electric car means more money in their pockets and cleaner air for their families to breathe. This comes when battery factories grow large and costs come down.

      In the USA no government paid for the thousands of gas filling stations that sprung up to service the new horseless carriages. It was free enterprise and good old entrepenuership that just grew and grew. Need plus opportunity. These are things these United States were literally built upon. These last eight years our government has tried hard to replicate Europe. You can see how this inefficient, spotty sprinkling of charging stations and compliance car moves has panned out. The result is a slow, often pathetic crawl by automakers to comply to a need they say does not exist. Cars they argue people don’the want.

      1. Doggydogworld says:

        Yeah! And no government built roads for those horseless carriages! And no government granted free land to build railroads! And no government ever built train stations or airports. It was good old free enterprise!!!

        LOL.

        Government involvement in charging stations may or may not be a good idea. But providing basic infrastructure that advances national aims is a perfectly legitimate government function.

        1. James says:

          Yeah! Take that you trickle-downer libertarian fume sucker!….And, and take Amtrak, for example, there’s a government success story for ya….Uh, well….not so much….uh….nevermind…

          L 🙂 L

    4. James says:

      Europeans live in a land that has become brainwashed that government and regulation changes everything quickly and efficiently. After all, the messy, “dangerous” world of free markets and competition is to be controlled and even avoided, their leaders preach. Socialism is ingrained in your culture, and in France and elsewhere (Greece and Spain, for starters) even some leaders now admit it doesn’t work.

      In truth it is deregulation and a free market that will skyrocket EV adoption. Consumers will understand that an electric car means more money in their pockets and cleaner air for their families to breathe. This comes when battery factories grow large and costs come down.

      In the USA no government paid for the thousands of gas filling stations that sprung up to service the new horseless carriages. It was free enterprise and good old entrepenuership that just grew and grew. Need plus opportunity. These are things these United States were literally built upon. These last eight years our government has tried hard to replicate Europe. You can see how this inefficient, spotty sprinkling of charging stations and compliance car moves has panned out. The result is a slow, often pathetic crawl by automakers to comply to a need they say does not exist. Cars they argue people don’t want.

      1. Mikael says:

        I hope you don’t believe this yourself but are just trolling. I’m trying to not feed you, but sometimes it’s hard.

      2. Rightofthepeople says:

        I appreciate your point of view on this. I have often wondered, where would EVs be today if we operated in a truly free market? I often read posts on this and other EV friendly websites about the billions of dollars a year in subsidies the US gov’t provides for the oil and gas industry. Well, that is government interference in the free market, and a good reminder that if you like government interference you must take the bad with the good because certainly you won’t like everything the government does. Subsidies to oil is one of those bad things that I’m sure had good intentions in the beginning. But if we could go back in time and eliminate those subsidies, if they never existed, how much farther along might EVs be today? We might already be living in a world where ICE cars are only seen in museums because the free market would have driven us toward EVs at a much faster rate. But we’ll never know, because government stepped in and muddied the waters.

  6. wavelet says:

    2017? Nope. They’ll be selling S/X, hopefully at bit more than the rate today, but it’ll be very surprising if there’s any Model 3 production beyond “enough cars to give to journalists for test drives and maybe some more as sales demos” in 2017.
    Other than that, they may float some details about future projects, and broaden the SC network.

    2018? Possibly.

    1. Trollnonymous says:

      Tesla will deliver 3 Model ≡ to 3 dudes in Freemont and say “We delivered on said date…..”

      1. Nope! Not True! GM Deliver 3 Bolt EV’s! Tesla HAS TO Deliver – At Least 4 Model 3’s, on their Delivery Date! /Sarc!

        Actually – I figure that – While Elon Said July 1st, 2017, was the goal for the start of Mass Production, Most People added the Experience of Tesla Delays for Past Vehicles – in their own subconscious mind – and HEARD – July 1st, 2018!

        The Way I see this is – When Elon Said ‘Mass Production’ – He meant cranking out the little suckers like LEGO’s, which – might not be quite how it is – on July 1st, but I expect it will be the goal!

        And likely – Tesla will have opportunities to make excuses (The Donald, Suppliers, cost of Equipment, etc.), but they will skip those this time – since they HAVE TO, and just get on with making the cars, even if they are not making a Thousand a Week right off!

        Elon was not prepared for 115,000 Reservations, BEFORE the Model 3 was Revealed on Stage, and even he Freaked a bit at that number – just watch the Tesla Model 3 Reveal Video on their Model 3 page – after the cars come out, and Elon returns to the stage and shares that number! His Voice Cracks a bit!

        Now with over 350,000, and some say over 500,000 Reservations in the pipeline, and he is saying some 12+ to 18 Months to get one if you ordered today, you can do the math and see he is working on a track to make over 200,000 Model 3’s per year, which is over 50,000 per quarter, or about 4,000 per week!

        So – he might be behind that goal a bit, but that does not mean he might not be able to start – on schedule, on July 1st, making 250-500 Per Week!

        The Bolt is at what – 9 per hour now, and with an 8 hour shift, that is 72 per day, and for a 5 day week, that is 360 a week, which GM is also Ramping up, (While at the same time pushing for The Donald to help them out by easing up demands they must follow that is causing them to make so many EV’s!), and you think Tesla will not be able to even Get Started building finished cars on July 1st, 2017?

        Well – you might just be right – that they won’t be able to be making 4,000 Model 3 cars a week right out of the gate, but I don’ see them making just 40 a week either!

        Actually – I think it is a bit too early for heavy Pessimism on the July 1st Production Start Date!

        Maybe if all the signs we are looking for have not started to show up by Mid-February – Late March, 2017, such as being Battery Production smoothly cruising along at the Gigafactory, Further Model 3 info (Part 3 Reveal), some Beta Test Cars Showing up on Public roads (either Near Fremont, or anywhere!), then I can see a point in the skepticism, but I think Now is a bit early, particularly with announcements that hit the Press on August 2nd, 2016, of Tesla Ordering Parts for 300 Beta Test Vehicles!

        Sure – it takes time to put the parts in place and make a car, and they will have to train a new batch of Robots, and verify the Stamping Dies, but much of that can happen without any news of it leaking, making it look like they are not moving forward, to us out here, in the great beyond!

        Just don’t miss the Planned Gigafactory Announcements just few days away, for the January 4th, 2017 – date!

  7. agzand says:

    ” have hardware with full self-driving capability”

    This is very doubtful, look at google Chryslers and Uber Volvos and Fords. That is what self driving hardware looks like. I seriously doubt current Tesla hardware is capable of full autonomous driving.

    1. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

      Right.

      Tesla has made an astonishing leap forward in being able to use radar reflections to “see” more than one car ahead, but they’re still relying on camera images (and optical image recognition, which has been proven to be unreliable) for looking to the side. Fully autonomous cars will need active scanning in 360°, in all directions, not just front-facing or even front- and rear-facing. T-bone collisions happen, too.

      1. Four Electrics says:

        Agreed. Generally, cameras can ascertain 3D geometry only with stereo views or when objects (or the car itself) is moving. With the current system it is likely that some self driving Tesla, in attempting to make a right on red, will eventually attempt to wipe out a cyclist standing in a bike lane.

    2. Was it not Volvo that had a Dealer Demonstrating the Safety of their self Driving Features when the car ran right into the people they were pitching it to?
      http://www.inquisitr.com/2123769/self-parking-car-hits-journalists-at-high-speed-watch-video-of-self-driving-volvo-accident-with-2-7-million-views-video/
      or – Love this line here – “Instead, in what is perhaps the most epic “option” in the history of automotive history, Volvo decided to make the special feature known as “pedestrian detection functionality” cost extra money.

      It gets better: the cars do have auto-braking features as standard, but only for avoiding other cars — if they are to avoid crashing into pedestrians, too, then owners must pay extra.”
      From – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-26/self-driving-car-ploughs-journalists

      1. agzand says:

        That is exactly why Tesla’s approach is not ideal. It relies on users to recognize when they need to interfere with self driving tech. User errors are common, for example at least one of the Volvo accidents that you mentioned was due to user error (the car didn’t have the option that they were testing for). Google who has the most experience with this tech recognized that it has to be foolproof to a much higher standard than a human driver, otherwise it is not going to work. That is why I think Tesla’s limited sensor coverage will not allow them to release fully autonomous cars.

  8. David Murray says:

    One thing occurs to me in regards to Tesla being able to deliver on time. If you look at a company like Ford or GM and they are a few months or even a year late with a new car, who cares? A few people that were waiting on that car will be mad, but other than that it doesn’t really affect the company much. But with Tesla, their entire future really depends on the success of the Model 3. So they have a lot more incentive to get it out on time, and working properly.

    1. James says:

      I agree with the “working properly” part. The “on time” part? Not so much.

      For just the reasons you list, Tesla cannot risk thousands of early 3 customers finding out they are beta testers and lash out to social media. It would be a feeding frenzy to theiron natural foes including a good chunk of mass media hungry to exploit a negative, sensationalist story.

  9. CLIVE says:

    Go Telsa Go !

    Tesla is not alone !!

    2017 Will Be A Key Year For All Car Companies !!!

    1. Well, I don’t know about ALL Car Companies, but it should be interesting for those coming up with new Plug-in Products that are listed on the Monthly Report – http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ – particularly:
      Toyota (Prius Prime),
      BMW (740e),
      Chevy (Bolt EV),
      Kia (Optima PHV),
      Chrysler (Pacifica Hybrid)

      and some not listed there yet – at least the Hyundai IONIQ EV, & PHEV!

      Well – it Could be a Key year – meaning – some just might determine their future in a new direction, with real intent in 2017, moving towards EV’s and Better PHEV’s! And – some might not, sealing their fate, of being pushed aside by those who move forward!

      However – I think Charging Station Companies, and Charging Networks, will also go though some interesting challenges in 2017, with potential mergers, buyouts, new business models, and the like taking place this coming year! Work Place Charging, and Condo/Apartment Charging are only now – 5 years in, starting to be addressed, and if 2017 shows good progress in those two fronts, EV Interest will improve nicely!

      Adding Redundant (Read: Decent Multiples of) DC Fast Charging at Decent Freeway Intervals, will also get peoples attention! While I like PlugShare, I think they need some short cuts to selecting EV Drive-able Fast Charging Routes.

      Also – Cities, Counties, States, and Provinces – need Better Freeway and Road Signage for Exits and Intersections leading people to spots with EV Charging, so non EV Drivers start to become aware of EV Charging Potential, as well!

      Those of us in the Know – understand things like PlugShare, ChargePoint, EVGo, and the like, but ICE Drivers – have never heard of them! That is where better Road Signage comes into play!

      And – I have noticed – very few Charging Station Signs encourages EV Drivers to ‘Charge’ since most encourage them to ‘Park’ there!

      Plus – Signs at EV Charging Points do not often list the fact that the station is listed on any particular Charging Network, particularly those without a Billing Function! Some list the Funders, Sponsors, and Bakers that make the Site Possible, but even then – they should be listing their PlugShare Link, ChargePoint Link, Green Networks, or EV Go Link, etc!

  10. Pushmi-Pullyu says:

    “In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicles needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year.”

    “Tesla is also expected to reveal its pickup truck and the Model Y sometime in 2017.”

    I personally don’t believe that Tesla will reveal any production-intent heavy truck (semi tractor) nor pickup in 2017. At most, I think we’ll see a prototype semi tractor that will be far too expensive for mass production, and I think the pickup will be put off till a later year. Admittedly Tesla now has the ability to do more than one difficult thing at a time, but I think it’s too early for development of a BEV pickup intended for mass production.

    Just my opinion, of course.

    1. Quite Possible – they could mix the Model ‘T’ (Truck) or Model ‘TT’ (Tesla Truck) in with the Model X Production line, even before we know it, for sample builds, since it is highly likely to be build on the slightly extended Model S Chassis that the X is built on, even it it gets even more Mods, for a Bigger Battery, either longer or double stacked!

      Might even be able to slow Model X Production some – to get the Truck production developed on the line! Even if they reveal a Truck before December Next year, it will still be about 12-15 Months to begin a Full Production line for that! Should be enough time to finish up the first 400,000 Model 3’s!

      I would hope that they go with the Model Y Reveal and Production First, but that is just me! I think – after the Model 3, and the S, & X, it will be easier for them than a Pickup! And it too will have high, or even higher demand, than the model 3!

      This will also require much more of the Gigafactory to be finished, and more lines installed and up and running from Panasonic! I think Panasonic will want to know that they are well in hand at delivering the Model 3 and Power Packs/Powerwalls, before needing to put more money into further production lines at the GF for the Model Y and a Pickup!

      Then – there is also the mention, that after the Model 3 Production is well on its way, the Model S and Model X will get the new 21-70 Cells as well!

      Since we know that the 20″ Wheel Model X can Tow 5,000 Lbs, but also has speed, up to 155 Mph, How much could it tow, it it was re-geared for a top speed of 125 Mph, or maybe 100 Mph? I am sure they will be doing some custom Gear Boxes in the X, for testing such types of things! Some such test vehicles also might be early uses of the 21-70 Cells for the Model X, too!

      I think – If they can get a Model X Towing Capacity of 7,500 Lbs to 10,000 Lbs, and still get 250-300 miles range per charge (on Whatever Battery They determine that might need), that they will be ready to build a Pickup Body on such a Chassis to confirm that could deliver the goods they want!

      I remember – before the Model X Shipped, there was comments that it was being tested towing weights at up to 10,000 Pounds then, so – as the 21-70 Cells become available, they might also do some early testing of a Model X with 120 kWh or More, along with not so tall gearing for a better towing potential, so as to leave a better margin of error when towing!

      Software might even be involved, using autonomous elements, to maintain the best energy profile on roads! I think – when they can hit 120 kWh inside a Model X, and maybe 150 kWh in a Pickup, they will hold their lead on Range for some time to come, even with the coming EV Long Range Players!

      1. BenG says:

        Interesting thoughts, Robert.

        I think they’ll move on the Y next year, not the pickup. If we can see a pre-production Y by the end of next year, that would be awesome, with production by the middle or end of 2019.

        The Y has potential to be an even higher volume vehicle than the 3.

        I sincerely hope they take a more simplified approach to building an SUV on the 3 chassis as opposed to the overly complicated Model X.

    2. wavelet says:

      In the BEV space, what does make a lot of sense and is much lower-hanging fruit are compact-size vans of the type extremely popular in Europe — used both for local deliveries as well independent contractors (electricians, gardeners, plumbers etc.), they don’t need a lot of range, and, since they do very little highway driving, ot be aerodynamic either ==> curren battery capacities are enough.

  11. Four Electrics says:

    It is more accurate to say that 2017-2022 will be critical for Tesla, as that will be when ask of the stuff Tesla promised will actually happen. Tesla time, etc. In other words, the next five years will be about as critical for Tesla as the last five years were.

  12. notting says:

    Yes, the next few years will be critical for Tesla:
    – Opel Ampera-e will obviously be delivered before Model 3 – and probably cheaper?
    – Renault Zoe with 400km NEDC range and battery for purchase is coming in January 2017. That makes it much more interesting for people who say that a small car is ok but the 22kWh battery has too few range in that car.
    – It seems like Renault is going to build vehicles with at least 100kW CCS -> makes it much more interesting for people who want to charger faster (comes close to current Superchargers).

    Many people says that Tesla EVs are quite expensive. So that Renault facts will make Renault EVs (which are usually cheaper) more interesting.
    Maybe other manufacturers (Renault-Nissan is like one for me) will bring other really interesting EVs, too.

    notting, still waiting for a Megane Z.E. with much range.

  13. CDAVIS says:

    “2017 Will Be A Key Year For Tesla”
    ————

    The “Key” = Tesla Superchargers

    The continued build-out of the Tesla SCN (Supercharger Network) in support of Model 3 high volume production will be the most important ingredient element to Tesla’s success because Tesla’s SCN will be Tesla’s key advantage over it’s growing EV competitors for the next 5-10 years.

  14. Mister G says:

    2018 or 2019 who cares I’m not asking for a refund.

  15. wineboy says:

    A lot of good information and civil posts on here. When we start seeing cordless lawnmowers, trimmers, and other yard tools for about the same prices as crappy stinky two stroke and gasoline engines then you will know the threshold has probably begun for the EV revolution.

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